UFC 287 gets underway tonight in Miami, featuring a deep lineup with an epic rematch in store for the middleweight title.
But prior to that, there is an exciting welterweight bout set to take place on the main card between Kevin Holland and Santiago Ponzinibbio. UFC odds have Holland priced as a –260 favorite, while Ponzinibbio comes back at +205.
Will Holland take care of business as a moderate favorite, or can Ponzinibbio secure back-to-back wins for the first time in over four years? Find out in our free Holland vs. Ponzinibbio picks and predictions.
Kevin Holland vs Santiago Ponzinibbio fight odds
Kevin Holland vs Santiago Ponzinibbio method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Kevin Holland | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +210 | +550 |
| To win by Points | +195 | +550 |
| To win by Submission | +700 | +1,400 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on April 8, 2023.
Kevin Holland vs Santiago Ponzinibbio picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Kevin Holland. vs Santiago Ponzinibbio betting preview
Neither of these welterweights comes into this scrap in particularly good form. Kevin Holland is coming off two straight losses and both came inside the distance.
Meanwhile, Santiago Ponzinibbio is just 1-2 over his last three bouts with two split-decision losses and one knockout win. Those two losses could have easily gone either direction, which is impressive considering they came at the hands of Michel Pereira and Geoff Neal.
With that said, Holland’s last two losses have come against even tougher competition, losing to No. 3 contender Khamzat Chimaev on short notice and to the No. 7 ranked Stephen Thompson.
It's hard to blame Holland at all for losing either of those fights, which is a factor as to why he is laying north of +250 on the moneyline.
Over his last four fights as a betting favorite, Holland is 2-2. On the other hand, Ponzinibbio is 3-2 over his last five fights as an underdog.
Kevin Holland vs Santiago Ponzinibbio tale of the tape
| Kevin Holland | Santiago Ponzinibbio | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Age | 36 |
| 6-foot-3 | Height | 6-foot-0 |
| 170 lbs | Weight | 180 lbs |
| 81 inches | Reach | 73 inches |
| 23-9 (13 KO) | Record | 29-6 (16 KO) |
Kevin Holland vs Santiago Ponzinibbio UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Ponzinibbio inside the distance
With a three-inch height and eight-inch reach disadvantage, Ponzinibbio will almost surely attempt to bring this fight to the mat. In camp, it is likely that Ponzibbio and his team looked at Khamzat’s victory at UFC 279 as a blueprint for how to quickly dispose of Holland on the mat.
In that scrap, Chimaev landed two takedowns within the first two minutes of the fight before locking in a D’Arce Choke and winning via first-round submission. Ponzibbio is obviously nowhere near Chimaev’s level, but he is still a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is more than capable of dominating a fight on the ground.
Six of Ponzinibbio’s 29 professional wins came via submission. With that in mind, he also possesses a ton of power, evidenced by his 16 knockouts over that same stretch.
While I think his grappling and submission game is a far more likely avenue to victory against the bigger Holland, I also would not be shocked if Ponzinibbio is able to catch him.
However, with his inside-the-distance prop only priced around +360, I would rather just back Ponzinibbio’s moneyline at +205.
Prediction: Ponzinibbio inside the distance (+360 at BetRivers)
Fight best bet: Ponzinibiio ML
Considering Ponzinibbio’s likely game plan, his odds to win this scrap are too long to pass up at +205. Ponzinibbio’s moneyline suggests that he only wins this matchup 32.8% of the time, which is something I do not agree with.
Chimaev’s utter domination over Holland in the grappling department was a further indictment of Holland’s struggles in defending takedowns, something he has only done at a 50% clip since joining the UFC.
A third of Holland’s professional losses have come via submission, and the majority of Holland’s losses by decision were a product of getting dominated in the grappling department. Back in 2021, Holland suffered consecutive losses by decision to Marvin Vettori and Derek Brunson.
While Ponzinibbio should be able to submit Holland, he could also look at the film from the Vettori and Brunson fights and see that turning this into a “boring” fight with wrestling domination is also a good path to victory.
Pick: Ponzinibbio moneyline (+205 at BetRivers)
