Themba Gorimbo and Jeremiah Wells are hoping to rebound from disappointing losses and regain lost momentum, so the stakes are high for these welterweights on this weekend’s UFC Fight Night undercard.
Here are my Wells vs. Gorimbo predictions and UFC picks for this November 1 bout out of Las Vegas.
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Wells vs Gorimbo prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Gorimbo ML (-135 at BET99)
- My best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-115 at BET99)
Fight analysis
Themba Gorimbo’s rapid rise hit a major roadblock when Vicente Luque submitted him in what was supposed to be a showcase bout. That loss stalled his momentum, and he’s being teed up for another chance to show out, this time against Jeremiah Wells.
On paper, it’s a winnable fight for Gorimbo. Wells is a serviceable veteran that should be a good test for Gorimbo, but nothing more. Then again, so was the badly damaged Luque.
Wells remains a tricky opponent even at 39. He’s a powerful grappler with solid top control and can end fights quickly when he’s able to impose his will.
However, he switches between his wrestling and striking without committing to either. His striking is wild but dangerous enough to force opponents backward, which opens up his takedowns.
Back-to-back losses to Carlston Harris and Max Griffin and an 18-month layoff since his last fight mean the 39-year-old veteran can’t afford a loss here if he expects to continue competing in the UFC.
Gorimbo, meanwhile, remains a physically imposing welterweight with legitimate tools, but something seems to be missing. He’s tall, rangy, and carries strong wrestling fundamentals — as evidenced by his averaging 4.61 takedowns per fight — and does a great job using his length to control distance on the feet.
When he’s confident, Gorimbo will take the offensive, and his size makes him difficult to handle in the clinch. Though Gorimbo tends to take off when he’s confident, he’s not a finisher with just one stoppage in six UFC fights, and he’s been submitted twice.
Wells’ best path is to get inside and force grappling exchanges, but with his fading athleticism and tendency to slow after the first round — coupled with the layoff and ring rust — that is easier said than done.
Gorimbo will aim to dictate the pace and keep Wells on the outside, potshotting and keeping Wells out, and potentially outwrestling him when they do tie up. I’m expecting Gorimbo to be focused and on point after the Luque loss, and he’s the pick.
Best bet analysis
Wells won’t win this fight if he can’t get the fight to the ground, and it’s going to be a hard ask for him to have the energy to try and mitigate the reach disadvantage for three rounds.
Gorimbo doesn’t tend to let his hands go unless he sees an opening, and even then, he’s not a finisher. My best bet is the fight going Over 2.5 rounds.
Jeremiah Wells vs Themba Gorimbo odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Wells | Gorimbo |
| To win outright | +115 | -145 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +675 | +320 |
| To win by decision | +365 | +220 |
| To win by submission | +475 | +750 |
| Draw | +5000 | +5000 |
Odds as of 11-1.
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Jeremiah Wells vs Themba Gorimbo tale of the tape
| Wells | Gorimbo | |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | Age | 34 |
| 5-foot-9 | Height | 6-foot-1 |
| Welterweight | Weight Class | Welterweight |
| 74 inches | Reach | 77 inches |
| 12-4-1 | Record | 14-5 |
| 5 | Wins by KO | 2 |
| 4 | Wins by submission | 6 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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