Movsar Evloev vs Lerone Murphy Predictions, Picks & Odds

Danny Howard - Contributor at Covers.com
Danny Howard • Betting Analyst 21+ years betting experience
Updated: Mar 20, 2026 , 07:05 PM ET • 4 min read

Howard's prediction: Movsar Evolev presents a matchup nightmare for Lerone Murphy.

Evloev during UFC 263.
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Movsar Evloev during UFC 263.

A shot at the featherweight title likely awaits the winner of a UFC Fight Night bout between undefeated contenders Movsar Evloev and Lerone Murphy.

UFC odds currently list Evloev as the favorite at -240, with Murphy a +180 underdog ahead of Saturday’s clash at the O2 Arena in London.

Fighting in front of a home crowd, Murphy will need to tighten up his takedown defense, as the relentless Evloev is primed for a big showing.

Read more in my Evloev vs. Murphy predictions and free betting picks for March 21.

Evloev vs Murphy fight prediction: Evloev to win (-240)

Evloev vs Murphy
Mar 21 • UFC Fight Night
Fight Prediction
Evloev to win (-240)
Bet now at BET99

Lerone Murphy has been taken down seven times in his last three fights and is more of a finesse striker than a power puncher. There won’t be much he can do to keep Movsar Evloev at bay.

If Murphy is getting taken down by the likes of Dan Ige and Josh Emmett, Evolev is set to deliver a dominant wrestling display.

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Evloev vs Murphy best bet: Evloev by decision (-115)

Evloev vs Murphy
Mar 21 • UFC Fight Night
Best bet
Evloev by decision (-115)
Bet now at BET99

Murphy and Evloev don’t hunt for finishes, preferring to play it safe in their respective disciplines. 

The stylistic matchup heavily favors Evloev’s chain wrestling, though he can also hold his own if Murphy scrambles back to his feet.

Evloev will rack up control time and keep finding ways to get Murphy on the mat, content to pin him down and sap his energy.

Movsar Evloev vs Lerone Murphy odds

Bet99
Method of Victory Evloev Murphy
To win outright -240 +180
To win by KO/TKO +725 +700
To win by decision -115 +320
To win by submission +725 +2900
Total rounds Over 4.5
-300
Under 4.5
+225

Odds as of 3-21.

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Movsar Evloev vs Lerone Murphy tale of the tape

Evloev   Murphy
32 Age 34
5-foot-7 Height 5-foot-5
Featherweight Weight Class Featherweight
72 inches Reach 73 inches
19-0 Record 17-0-1
3 Wins by KO 8
4 Wins by submission 0

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Danny Howard - Covers.com
Betting Analyst

After a decade of covering all things boxing, from recapping the sport’s biggest fights to sharing behind-the-scenes details of the sweet science, Danny found himself immersed in sports betting, focusing on the sports he knows best. As a boxing and MMA contributor with seasoned experience from growing up around each sport, he can uncover the nuances and intangibles that can make the difference between victory and defeat.

Danny’s work has been mentioned on ESPN and USA Today, and he was a featured guest on The Esportz Network podcast, where he shared his combat sports insights. He is also a published author, with his novel And Stay Down! Boxing’s Worst Comebacks available on Amazon.

Danny is always on the lookout for the best odds and props when it comes to fight night, with Draft Kings and BetMGM being his go-to sites. Danny’s approach to finding value in the theater of the unexpected hinges on the fighters' recent form, especially when considering props.

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