Tatsuro Taira faces off against HyunSung Park in the headline event for UFC Fight Night this evening.
Taira is the No. 6-ranked flyweight contender and was originally supposed to face No. 4 flyweight Amir Albazi at this event, but after he withdrew on Sunday, Park stepped in to replace him.
UFC odds have Taira installed as a -350 favorite, with the unranked Park coming back at +255.
Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park predictions for August 2, from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Taira vs Park prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Taira moneyline (-350 at BET99)
- My best bet: Taira by submission or decision (-190 at BET99)
Fight analysis
Despite being just 25 years old, Tatsuro Taira has already compiled a 16-1 record while going 6-1 inside the Octagon. He's coming off his first career loss, a split decision to No. 3 flyweight Brandon Royval last October.
He was pieced up by Royval on the feet but got the better of the grappling exchanges, landing six takedowns and racking up 12 minutes of control time.
Park is 10-0 with his last nine wins coming by way of stoppage. Since earning a UFC contract, he's picked up three straight wins, beating Carlos Hernandez, Shannon Ross, and SeungGuk Choi. That said, none of those guys are UFC caliber.
The UFC has used Hernandez as a launching pad for rising Asian prospects and he's 1-3 in his last four with lopsided losses to Park, Rei Tsuruya, and Taira. Ross had four KO losses in a row before getting cut, while Choi later lost on Road to UFC and is back to the regional scene in Asia.
It's a massive step up in competition for Park to go from that to an established contender in Taira, who boasts five-round experience. While Park has the skills to make some noise in this division, he won't be able to hang with the elite grappling of Taira.
Best bet analysis
Park took this fight on short notice but was already in camp for a scheduled bout against Steve Erceg. That said, Erceg has a completely different skillset than Taira, and five days isn't nearly enough time to prepare for the change in grappling ability.
Taira can crack, but he won't have much of an advantage when it comes to the stand-up — Park might actually be a bit sharper with his striking. However, there will be a significant gap on the ground, where Taira has some of the best grappling in MMA.
Taira's transitions, top control, and ability to take the back are next level. Expect him to use a grappling-heavy game plan to either grind out a decision win or find a submission.
Tatsuro Taira vs HyunSung Park odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Taira | Park |
| To win outright | -350 | +255 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +550 | +1050 |
| To win by decision | +200 | +750 |
| To win by submission | +155 | +875 |
| Draw | +2500 | +2500 |
Odds as of 8-2.
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Tatsuro Taira vs HyunSung Park tale of the tape
| Taira | Park | |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Age | 29 |
| 5-foot-7 | Height | 5-foot-7 |
| Flyweight | Weight Class | Flyweight |
| 70 inches | Reach | 66 inches |
| 16-1 | Record | 10-0 |
| 5 | Wins by KO | 4 |
| 7 | Wins by submission | 5 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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