Benoit Saint Denis vs Mauricio Ruffy Predictions, Picks & Odds

The co-main event of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night promises to deliver in the action department as Benoit Saint-Denis and Mauricio Ruffy collide in a Parisian slugfest. These are two of the most exciting lightweights in the division, and this could be a short, explosive fight that won’t make it to the final bell.

Ruffy is the -210 favorite while Saint Denis is a +160 underdog in the UFC odds. Here are my Saint Denis vs. Ruffy predictions and free betting picks for Saturday, September 6.

Saint Denis vs Ruffy prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Ruffy moneyline (-190 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Ruffy by KO, TKO, or DQ (+130 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Benoit Saint Denis may be the hometown hero in this fight, but he enters as the underdog and is not far removed from a two-fight losing streak, where he took heavy punishment. Though Mauricio Ruffy has momentum behind him and is eager to break into the top of the division, he has never faced an opponent this well-rounded or experienced.

While Ruffy can afford a setback at this stage of his career, Saint Denis cannot, which makes this an intriguing co-main event.

Three fights ago, Saint Denis looked like a real contender at lightweight thanks to his complete toolkit, but he’s come undone after stepping up his competition. Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano exposed his leaky striking defense by knocking him out, though he rebounded with a second-round submission over Kyle Prepolec three months ago.

Saint Denis has strong offensive numbers, landing over four significant strikes per minute and averaging four takedowns per fight, along with ten submission wins. He will need to rely on all of those tools because he will not win a striking battle with Ruffy.

Meanwhile, Ruffy is a one-note striker, but a very dangerous one. In his four UFC fights, he has won three by knockout and dropped opponents in three different bouts. He needed just four strikes to finish Bobby Green, and overall, he lands his significant strikes at an impressive 58% accuracy rate.

Questions remain about how he will handle takedowns, since no opponent has yet forced him to defend against them, but his raw finishing ability makes him a live threat at all times.

This is a bad match for Saint Denis because he’s outmatched in striking, and I don’t think he’s strong enough to get Ruffy on the mat. He often trusts his chin too much and charges forward, which plays directly into Ruffy’s strengths.

Ruffy is the sharper striker, the bigger man, and far less vulnerable to being hit. Unless Saint Denis delivers a grappling clinic, he is likely to get clobbered. Ruffy is the pick.

Best bet analysis
Ruffy’s conditioning is excellent, and he manages his energy well. Saint Denis fights at a frantic pace regardless of circumstances, and that recklessness will not serve him well against Ruffy’s accurate power shots. Expect Ruffy to punish him early and often.

My best bet is Ruffy to win by knockout.

Benoit Saint Denis vs Mauricio Ruffy odds

Method of Victory	Saint Denis	Ruffy
To win outright	+150	-190
To win by KO/TKO	+675	+135
To win by decision	+450	+350
To win by submission	+600	+975
Draw	+5000	+5000

Odds as of 9-6.

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Benoit Saint Denis vs Mauricio Ruffy tale of the tape

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