Saturday’s main card for UFC Fight Night at the UFC APEX features a key flyweight bout as the seventh-ranked fighter, Alex Perez, takes on the rising contender Muhammad Mokaev.
UFC odds have Mokaev as a large betting favorite at –340, while Perez returns at +270.
Here are my free betting picks for Perez vs. Mokaev at tonight’s March 2 UFC event in Las Vegas.
Alex Perez vs Muhammad Mokaev fight odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Perez | Mokaev |
| To win outright | +275 | -375 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +750 | +1,050 |
| To win by points | +730 | +190 |
| To win by submission | +1,650 | +115 |
| Draw | +2,500 | +2,500 |
Odds courtesy of Bet99 on March 2, 2024.
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Perez vs Mokaev picks
Fight prediction: Mokaev ML
Muhammad Mokaev puts his perfect 10-0 record on the line as he continues to push for a title shot in the UFC flyweight division. One of the youngest fighters in the UFC, Mokaev immediately put the entire division on notice with five straight victories, many of which came against experienced veterans such as Malcolm Gordon and Tim Elliott.
Mokaev is already calling for a title shot against Alexandre Pantoja should he win in "impressive fashion" on Saturday. Given the state of the division and how he has blown through all 10 professional and 23 amateur fights, a big victory could very well mean the opportunity at gold with a quick turnaround at UFC 301.
He must get through Alex Perez first, but these guys are trending in opposite directions. Perez is more than eight years older and has fought just twice since the summer of 2020, losing both bouts by first-round submission.
Those two losses came against Pantoja and Deiveson Figueiredo, which is understandable. However, it could be argued that Mokaev is trending in that direction in terms of talent, and Perez is a bigger underdog on Saturday than he was in either of those two bouts.
Prediction: Muhammad Mokaev moneyline (-340 at Bet99)
Fight best bet: Mokaev by submission
We can knock down Mokaev’s -350 line to +150 if we take him to win by submission, and that is his clearest path to victory in this scrap. Mokaev’s game plan has never wavered throughout his entire career: get to the mat and hunt submissions.
Four of his five UFC wins have come by submission, while his lone decision victory came against Charles Johnson, a guy who has never been submitted through 20 professional fights and six bouts on the amateur circuit. The same cannot be said about Perez, who is coming off two straight first-round submission losses.
Oddsmakers have Mokaev priced as a heavy favorite and the “Fight Does Not Go The Distance” prop is listed between -135 and -162. Therefore, it is safe to assume that the most probable outcome is that Mokaev ends this bout inside the distance, and considering that only 10% of his wins are by knockout while only 14% of Perez’s losses are by that method, submission is the most likely avenue in this scrap.
Pick: Muhammad Mokaev to win by submission (+150 at Bet99)
Perez vs Mokaev betting preview
There’s just a lot more to like about Mokaev in this fight than Perez, which is why he’s such a big favorite. Mokaev is younger, far more active, taller, longer, more athletic, and is better on the mat.
Perez’s 77% takedown defense is not bad, but it certainly isn’t good enough to stuff what Mokaev is going to be throwing at him all night in terms of takedowns. Pantoja took Perez down immediately and submitted him while Figueiredo also locked in a submission in under two minutes.
Perez has not won a fight since June of 2020 and has lost each of his past two fights when priced as the underdog. Meanwhile, Mokaev has never been on the losing end of a bout through 10 professional and 23 amateur fights.
Alex Perez vs Muhammad Mokaev tale of the tape
| Perez | Mokaev | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Age | 23 |
| 5-foot-6 | Height | 5-foot-9 |
| 125 lbs | Weight | 125 lbs |
| 65 inches | Reach | 70 inches |
| 24-7 (5 KO) | Record | 11-0 (2 KO) |
Not intended for use in MA.
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