Nikita Krylov vs. Ryan Spann is the headline bout for UFC Fight Night action tonight.
It should be an intriguing clash between a pair of Top-10 light heavyweights coming off back-to-back victories. UFC betting odds opened with Krylov as a -150 favorite and he's moved to -170, with Spann coming back at +145.
Here are my best UFC Fight Night: Krylov vs. Spann UFC picks and predictions for February 25 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Nikita Krylov vs Ryan Spann fight odds
Nikita Krylov vs Ryan Spann method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Nikita Krylov | Ryan Spann |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +250 | +275 |
| To win by Points | +600 | +1400 |
| To win by Submission | +215 | +450 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of Draftkings Sportsbook on February 25, 2023.
Nikita Krylov vs Ryan Spann picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Nikita Krylov vs Ryan Spann betting preview
Krylov is the No. 6-ranked light heavyweight contender. He's coming off back-to-back victories after a first-round knockout of Alexander Gustafsson and a unanimous decision win against Volkan Oezdemir.
The 30-year-old is 4-4 since returning to the UFC in 2018, but three of those losses came against the top fighters in the division in Jan Blachowicz, Glover Teixeira, and Magomed Ankalaev. The other defeat was to Paul Craig, the comeback king, in a bout Krylov was clearly winning until getting lackadaisical on the mat and being caught in a triangle choke.
With a background in Kyokushin Karate, Krylov is a solid striker who likes to work in kicks. But his best work comes on the ground, where he's earned 15 career wins through submissions.
Meanwhile, Ryan "Superman" Spann is coming off a first-round knockout win against Dominick Reyes this past November. That improved his record to 8-2 in the octagon, moving him to No. 8 in the light heavyweight rankings.
The 31-year-old bounced between the middleweight and light heavyweight divisions earlier in his MMA career. But he looks much better in this weight class with his 6-foot-5-inch frame.
Spann is long and athletic with explosive punching ability. He also possesses dangerous submission skills and tapped out Ion Cutelaba last year.
Nikita Krylov vs Ryan Spann tale of the tape
| Nikita Krylov | Ryan Spann | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Age | 31 |
| 6-foot-3 | Height | 6-foot-5 |
| 205 lbs | Weight | 205lbs |
| 77.5 inches | Reach | 81.5 inches |
| 29-9 (12 KO) | Record | 21-7 (6 KO) |
Nikita Krylov vs Ryan Spann UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Krylov
Both of these fighters have looked good in recent bouts, but they each come with serious flaws.
Krylov has been absorbing strikes and showing his durability. But he can get caught at medium range, which is where Spann throws with deadly power.
However, Spann might come with even more issues. He's also hittable, and Spann's chin tends to be weaker. The veteran has also been showing poor intelligence during grappling exchanges, and Krylov could catch him if this fight goes to the mat.
In addition, Spann credited his previous win to a rare camp when he truly trained for the fight instead of just losing weight. That's not a good look, especially since he ended up missing weight for the bout.
That and his tendency to go full tilt with fights ending early make his cardio a major question mark. Krylov should hold a major advantage if he manages to drag this fight into the later rounds.
Prediction: Krylov ML (-170 at bet365)
Fight best bet: Over 1.5 rounds
Win or lose, Spann has been a bit of a glass cannon lately, with his last five fights all ending inside the first round. Two of Krylov's last three fights have also finished in the opening round.
You might think that means we'll see a quick finish on Saturday, but I doubt it because styles make fights. The recent history of these two fighters leads to some great value on Over 1.5 rounds.
Keep in mind that Krylov is an extremely durable fighter who was able to eat some heavy shots from Oezdemir and Johnny Walker and still go the distance. The full distance has been reached during four of Krylov's last six fights. He tends to rely on his grappling to grind out rounds when faced with dangerous strikers like Spann.
Meanwhile, Spann likes to pump out powerful jabs at the end of his long reach. But Krylov is capable of staying on the outside and using calf kicks to neutralize that threat. When Spann manages to close the distance, Krylov's wrestling will challenge his questionable takedown defense.
Either way, Krylov will avoid Spann's power long enough for this fight to go Over 1.5 rounds.
Pick: Over 1.5 rounds (+130 at DraftKings)
