UFC Fight Night Lewis vs Nascimento Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Back the "Black Beast" in Marquee Bout

Despite being 39 years old, Derrick Lewis' power and strength remain undefeated. Find out why the Houston native should thrive in the latest UFC Fight Night main event by reading our Lewis vs. Nascimento betting picks.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
May 11, 2024 • 18:10 ET • 4 min read
Derrick Lewis UFC
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Derrick Lewis faces off against Rodrigo Nascimento in the main event of UFC Fight Night betting tonight. This marks the 10th main event that Lewis has headlined, and although his best days are behind him, he's still the No. 12 ranked heavyweight contender.

Despite losing four of his last five bouts, UFC odds have Lewis as a -160 favorite against Nascimento, who enters on a three-fight winning streak. Here are my best free UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento picks and predictions for May 11 from the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri.

Lewis vs Nascimento prediction and pick

Fight analysis

After 28 fights in the UFC, we know exactly what we're getting with the "Black Beast" Derrick Lewis. Lewis isn't skilled or fast and his ground game is practically non-existent, but he's massive, incredibly strong, and still one of the hardest hitters in MMA. 

While Lewis has just one win in his last five fights, he has generally been able to defeat mediocre opponents. He starched Marcos Rogério de Lima in 33 seconds as an underdog last year and now faces a borderline Top-15 heavyweight in Nascimento, who isn't as good as his winning streak might suggest. 

While Nascimento has won three in a row, all those victories came against unranked foes and none of them were impressive. He had split decision wins against Ilir Latifi and Tanner Boser during that span, and in his most recent victory, he was stuffed on all three of his takedown attempts while getting outstruck 79-70 by Don'Tale Mayes. 

If Nascimento wasn't able to finish those guys, he likely won't be able to put away Lewis, who went 25 minutes against Jailton Almeida in November. Even if Nascimento's able to get a takedown, Lewis is too big and strong to hold down or control on the mat.

Lewis should be able to keep this fight standing up long enough to find Nascimento's chin.

Best best analysis

Lewis holds the UFC record with 14 knockout wins, and his last four victories have come by that method. Even at 39 years old, Lewis has dynamite in his hands and the ability to explode at close distance. 

Although Nascimento has only been knocked out once in his career, he's never faced an opponent anywhere near as dangerous as Lewis. In fact, his only KO loss came at the hands of Chris Daukaus in 2020, and Lewis starched Daukaus in the opening round two years ago.

If you're backing Lewis to win here, it makes sense to bet him to win by KO/TKO.

Lewis vs Nascimento odds

Method of Victory Lewis Nascimento
To win outright -160 +140
To win by KO/TKO -130 +400
To win by points +1,250 +1,050
To win by submission +2,700 +375
Draw +2,500 +2,500

Odds as of May 11.

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Lewis vs Nascimento tale of the tape

Lewis   Nascimento
39 Age 31
6-foot-3 Height 6-foot-3
264 lbs Weight 261 lbs
79 inches Reach 80 inches
27-12 (22 KO) Record 11-1 (2 KO)

Not intended for use in MA.
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