Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot is the main event for UFC Fight Night betting tonight, Saturday, September 23. This should be a banger between a pair of Top-10 lightweights, and will be an intriguing stylistic matchup between a striking specialist in Fiziev and an elite grappler in Gamrot.
UFC betting odds opened with Fiziev as a -160 favorite with Gamrot coming back as a +130 underdog. Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot picks and predictions, tonight from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Fiziev vs Gamrot fight odds
Fiziev vs Gamrot method of victory odds
|Method of Victory||Rafael Fiziev||Mateusz Gamrot|
|To win by KO/TKO||+190||+1,100|
|To win by points||+260||+260|
|To win by submission||+2,000||+650|
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on September 20, 2023.
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Fiziev vs Gamrot picks
Fight prediction: Fiziev
Gamrot has an impressive record in the UFC, but he could very easily be on a three-fight losing streak. Recent wins against Arman Tsarukyan and Jalin Turner were very close decisions, and he often needs to rack up takedowns in order to eke out rounds. He won't find it easy to take down Fiziev, who has a 90% takedown defense and has the speed and distance management to move in and out of range.
Will Gamrot be able to take down Fiziev at some point during a five-round main event? Most likely given how relentless he is with his wrestling, but Fiziev has the strength and takedown defense to keep this fight standing up long enough to hurt Gamrot in the striking exchanges.
Gamrot tends to be linear in his striking, which can make him a bit hittable. While he's never been finished in his career, he's been knocked down by Turner, Tsarukyan, Beneil Dariush, and Guram Kutateladze.
He showed tremendous recoverability in those bouts, but his tendency to get cracked and trust in his chin will prove costly against someone who puts together combinations and hits as hard as Fiziev.
Prediction: Fiziev moneyline (-155 at DraftKings)
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Fight best bet: Fiziev ML
If you like Gamrot to win, it makes sense to back him by decision which you can get as high as +280 at bet365. After all, he's been eking out decision victories against other ranked lightweights thanks to his wrestling and cardio.
That said, Fiziev is just as capable of winning a decision since he throws with such high volume and Gamrot has been routinely outstruck by most of his opponents over the last few years. Fiziev also has the power and killer instinct to hand Gamrot the first stoppage loss of his career.
With Fiziev capable of winning by multiple methods, I'm going to keep things simple and back him on the moneyline at a decent price.
Pick: Fiziev moneyline (-155 at DraftKings)
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Fiziev vs Gamrot betting preview
Rafael "Ataman" Fiziev is the No. 6 ranked lightweight contender and in his previous bout he lost a highly competitive decision to Justin Gaethje in March. Fiziev was outstruck by a slim 103-97 margin in that clash and it looked like anybody's fight until Gaethje poured it on in the third round.
That defeat snapped a six-fight winning streak for Fiziev, who racked up knockout victories against Renato Moicano, Brad Riddell, and Rafael dos Anjos during that span.
With a background in Muay Thai, Fiziev is an explosive striker who throws punches and kicks to every level. The 30-year-old always puts on a show and has earned a Fight of the Night or Performance of the Night bonus in each of his last six fights.
Mateusz "Gamer" Gamrot is one spot behind Fiziev in the lightweight rankings and is fresh off a split-decision win against Jalin Turner in March. Gamer ate some big shots from Turner in that bout, and was even dropped in the opening round, but he managed to grind out a victory thanks to four takedowns and nearly seven minutes of control time.
The former two-division champ at KSW, Gamrot lost a close split decision to Guram Kutateladze in his promotional debut but has since gone 5-1 in the octagon.
Gamrot has crisp technical boxing ability but grappling is where he's at his best. A two-time ADCC European Champion in submission wrestling, Gamrot averages 4.54 takedowns per 15 minutes and typically relies on his relentless pressure and non-stop cardio to wear down opponents.
Fiziev vs Gamrot tale of the tape
|Rafael Fiziev||Mateusz Gamrot|
|155 lbs||Weight||155 lbs|
|71 inches||Reach||71 inches|
|12-2 (8 KO)||Record||22-2 (7 KO)|
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