Rafael Fiziev vs Ignacio Bahamondes Predictions, Picks & Odds

The lightweight clash between Rafael Fiziev and Ignacio Bahamondes serves as the co-main event of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night and is one of the featured MMA betting attractions of the weekend.

The technically sound and brutal Fiziev and the all-action Bahamondes are fighting for positioning in the division, with the winner not only looking at a Top 10 ranking, but an inside track for a major future fight.

UFC odds have Bahamondes as a -130 favorite, while Fiziev is a +105 underdog. Here are my Fiziev vs. Bahamondes predictions and free betting picks from Baku.

Fiziev vs Bahamondes prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Fiziev moneyline (+105 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-170 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Both Rafael Fiziev and Ignacio Bahamondes come into this fight on different trajectories. Fiziev is winless in his last three and most recently failed to avenge a close loss to Justin Gaethje, losing more decisively in their rematch at UFC 313. Bahamondes, meanwhile, has won his last three in a row and retired Jalin Turner after submitting him in one round on the same card. 

While Bahamondes has momentum, bettors aren’t giving up on the battle-hardened Fiziev just yet, and neither am I.

Bahamondes is freakishly tall for the division at 6-foot-3, though he doesn’t use his height as effectively as he could, opting instead to stalk forward and apply heavy pressure. “La Jaula” lands 7.09 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 4.36, giving him an impressive near +3 striking differential.

He’s earned finishes in six of his seven UFC fights and has stopped his last three opponents in the first round. However, he can get careless defensively, and opponents like Ludovit Klein and John Makdessi have exploited his tendency to smother his own offense.

That carelessness is exactly what Fiziev can exploit.

His loss to Gaethje in the rematch came on short notice following a knee injury TKO loss to Mateusz Gamrot, but he performed well early until ring rust set in and Gaethje took over. Fiziev’s technically sound Muay Thai and experience against top-tier competition give him the kind of durability and style that could give Bahamondes serious problems.

Yes, Fiziev has lost three in a row, but Bahamondes hasn’t shown yet that he’s at the level of Gaethje or Gamrot. We still don’t know how much he’s truly improved since Klein shut him down by planting his feet and refusing to back up, something Fiziev excels at.

With a full camp and an opponent who might rush into exchanges, Fiziev should find the openings he needs. I’m picking Fiziev to break his losing streak, get back on track, and reassert himself in the lightweight division.

Best bet analysis
Fiziev and Bahamondes are dangerous strikers, and there’s no doubt that Bahamondes will try to test Fiziev’s resolve right from the beginning. Fiziev has shown he can go deep into fights against elite opponents, while we have seen Bahamondes look less than destructive against the more technically sound opponents he’s faced, often coming up short by decision.

I don’t see Fiziev getting run through by Bahamondes, and he very well may succeed in taking him into the deep waters. My best bet for this fight is goes Over 2.5 rounds.

Rafael Fiziev vs Ignacio Bahamondes odds

Method of Victory	Fiziev	Bahamondes
To win outright	+105	-130
To win by KO/TKO/DQ	+295	+450
To win by decision or technical decision	+305	+185
To win by submission	+1900	+850
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 6-18.

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Rafael Fiziev vs Ignacio Bahamondes tale of the tape

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