UFC Fight Night Fialho vs Salikhov Picks and Predictions: Father Time Won't Come for Salikhov Yet

While Muslim Salikhov is approaching 40 and is coming off a loss, he's in a decent position to score a victory in what should be a close fight against the one-dimensional Andre Fialho. Our betting picks find the best angle to take on UFC Fight Night.

Last Updated: Nov 19, 2022 7:26 AM ET Read Time: 4 min

Andre Fialho vs. Muslim Salikhov is scheduled for three rounds in the welterweight division as a featured undercard attraction of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night from the Apex Center in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Fialho and Salikhov are hoping to bounce back from KO losses in their last fight, with Fialho hoping to end 2022 with more wins than losses and Salikhov hoping to keep Father Time away at least for one more fight.

UFC odds have this as a nearly even fight with Salikhov a minor favorite at -115. The younger Fialho is right on his heels as a -105 underdog.

Here are our picks and predictions for Fialho vs. Salikhov at UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas.

Fialho vs Salikhov fight odds

Fialho vs Salikhov method of victory odds

Method of Victory Andre Fialho Muslim Salikhov
To win by KO/TKO +190 +300
To win by Points +500 +260
To win by Submission +1,700 +1,400
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on November 17, 2022.

Fialho vs Salikhov picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Fialho vs Salikhov betting preview

This fight features a good fighter starting to slow down against a decent fighter struggling with consistency. Salikhov saw an impressive five-fight streak snapped by Li Jingliang’s strikes in his last bout and has to hope he has enough left in the tank to fend off Fialho. Fialho is guaranteed entertainment and has already fought four times this year, but is 2-2 coming off a KO loss to Jake Matthews. 

“The King of Kung Fu” may be fighting more conservatively, but he still does a lot of things well. He’s a solid striker with good grappling and refined fighting instincts. Salikhov doesn’t make many mistakes offensively, and his Sanda background turns any grappling engagement into a physically taxing one.

He lands 3.04 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy while averaging 1.17 takedowns per 15 minutes at 35% accuracy. One thing that stands out is that he only absorbs 2.56 strikes in return and defends 66% of incoming strikes. Fialho’s absence of a grappling game means that Salikhov needs only to contend with strikes and slow his younger opponent down. 

Fialho is a pure striker with a stiff jab, does good leg work, and fights like he is afraid to take a step back. The aggressive striker can be a handful with his athleticism, and hitting him is like throwing a rock at a hornet’s nest. Once Fialho gets buzzed or hurt, he comes back with a vengeance and brings the hurt with him.

The rough and tumble Fialho lands 3.78 significant strikes per minute at 42% accuracy. He doesn’t grapple but defends 75% of the takedown attempts against him to keep fights in his wheelhouse. Salikhov could struggle against his explosive bursts, so being first and firing often is his path to victory against his veteran opponent.

Salikhov is the bigger hitter of the two, but he might get drowned out by Fialho’s activity if he can’t slow him down. At the same time, Fialho is getting chin checked by fighters who aren’t devastating strikers, and his leaky defense is problematic. These two complement each other well, making this one of the tougher fights to pick on the card.

Fialho vs Salikhov tale of the tape

Andre Fialho   Muslim Salikhov
28 Age 38
6-foot-0 Height 5-foot-11
170.5 lbs Weight 170.8 lbs
74 inches Reach 70 inches
16-5-0 (13 KO, 1 NC) Record 18-3-0 (12 KO)

Fialho vs Salikhov UFC prediction and best bet

Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.

What makes this fight so difficult to pick is that both fighters are the antithesis of the other. Fialho’s youth and athletic striking should be enough to work the aging Salikhov over, but Salikhov’s discipline and intelligence might be enough to diffuse the bomb in front of him. When fights are this close, it comes down to who will have more ways to implement their game plan.

All Fialho can do is strike and come forward. He’s resoundingly easy to hit and won’t make Salikhov work as hard as he should to find him. Salikhov sits on his shots and defends well, not to mention that he can try and wrestle a bit to recharge his batteries while he runs the clock down. Fialho has been bopped around by fighters who aren’t known for their striking, and Salikhov’s multi-faceted offense will generate more scoring opportunities.

This is all under the assumption that Fialho does what he’s known to do and sits back before lashing out. To make an old fighter look old, you must take the fight to them and force them to expend energy. With Fialho’s deficiencies and Salikhov still performing well, I'm going with Salikhov by the slimmest of margins.

Prediction: Muslim Salikhov moneyline (-115 at DraftKings)

There are two good lines for the fight: picking the fight to go the distance at +130 and Salikhov by decision at +245. Salikhov will have opportunities to hurt Fialho throughout, yet, he won’t overexert himself to finish him if he feels the fight is going his way. Should the bout make it past the halfway point of the second round, it will go to a decision. 

Because I feel Salikhov should have enough in him to win, choosing him to win on the cards is my best pick of the fight at +245.

Pick: Muslim Salikhov to win by decision (+245 at DraftKings)

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