Emily Ducote seeks to get back on track against late substitute Lupita Godinez in a three-round strawweight fight taking place on this weekend’s UFC Fight Night card from the Apex in Las Vegas.
Ducote looks to rebound from her loss to Angela Hill against the resilient Godinez, who looks to make it two in a row in as many months. UFC odds have Godinez pegged as the favorite at -155, while Ducote is a +135 underdog.
Here are our picks and predictions for Ducote vs. Godinez at UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas.
Emily Ducote vs Loopy Godinez fight odds
Emily Ducote vs Loopy Godinez method of victory odds
|Method of Victory||Emily Ducote||Loopy Godinez|
|To win by KO/TKO||+700||+2,100|
|To win by Points||+230||-110|
|To win by Submission||+1,100||+1,100|
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on May 20, 2023.
Emily Ducote vs Loopy Godinez picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Emily Ducote vs Loopy Godinez betting preview
When looking at Loopy Godinez, she should be a lot better than her record indicates. She has decent striking, a decent takedown game, and good BJJ skills. What she lacks, however, is her fighting IQ, as she has made major tactical errors that have doomed her.
Godinez is coming in as a late substitute for Polyana Viana and is less than two months removed from her razor-thin win over the skidding Cynthia Cavillo at UFC 287. In that fight, Godinez started off strong and kept a solid work rate even though she began fading in the second round. Though she won by split decision, it was the most consistent we’ve seen her in the octagon.
The quick turnaround time would be troubling if she was in with an experienced opponent. To beat Emily Ducote, Godinez needs to stay busy and rely on her accurate strikes to push her back. Trying to take Ducote — a BJJ black belt — on the ground would be a horrible idea. That being said, Godinez often does find a way to fight to her opponent’s strengths.
Ducote looked awful in her loss to Angela Hill. In that fight, Ducote was outlanded two to one in significant strikes and was wiped out by the strawweight trial horse. The former Invicta FC and Bellator contender never got going and suffered a loss that could've potentially damaged her confidence.
If she is about her facilities, Ducote is facing an opponent far less consistent than Hill. She’ll hold a two-inch advantage in reach, possesses the better ground game if Godinez is foolish enough to take her there, and has shown a good chin. It won’t be easy, but Ducote can win as long as she’s focused.
A big hole she needs to patch is her striking defense. She absorbs an eye-popping 8.17 significant strikes per minute and lands 6.23. That usually means she can be outworked and doesn’t have noticeable power to dissuade attempts to pressure her. If she can’t get the fight to the ground, she’ll be in trouble.
Emily Ducote vs Loopy Godinez tale of the tape
|Emily Ducote||Loopy Godinez|
|115 lbs||Weight||115 lbs|
|63 inches||Reach||61 inches|
Emily Ducote vs Loopy Godinez UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Godinez
As with any Godinez fight, there is not a lot of confidence in picking her. If she can pressure Ducote and doesn’t try to test her mettle on the mat, she should win. Based on what we’ve seen from each of them, including their performances in defeat to Hill, Godinez has the edge.
I'm backing Godinez to score her second win in as many months.
Prediction: Godinez moneyline (-155 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Godinez by decision
I'm hoping that Godinez is still sharp from her last fight, and the rapid return to the octagon results in a focused performance. Neither Godinez nor Ducote have the finishing chops to make this a short night, but Godinez’s overall skill set should have her edge Ducote on the cards.
I'm going with Godinez to win by decision as my best bet.
Pick: Godinez to win by decision (-110 at DraftKings)