Steve Erceg will fight in front of his hometown crowd this weekend when he faces off against Tim Elliott at UFC Fight Night in Perth, Australia.
UFC odds have Erceg coming into the flyweight bout as the -180 favorite, with Elliott listed at +155.
Although Erceg hasn’t had a ton of recent success in the octagon, I’ll break down why this matchup favors the Australian on Saturday.
Read more in my Elliott vs. Erceg predictions and free betting picks for Saturday, May 2.
Elliott vs Erceg fight prediction: Erceg moneyline (-180)
Steve Erceg snapped a three-fight losing skid last August with a close decision win over Ode Osbourne, and all signs point to “Astroboy” making it two in a row on home soil.
Tim Elliott is as tough as they come, and the 39-year-old is coming off two straight submission wins, but he generally earns his wins by outwrestling strikers.
Neither fighter is a particularly skilled striker, meaning this matchup will be decided purely by wrestling — and Erceg has the clear advantage there.
Erceg may not be able to hang with the top dogs in the flyweight division, but he is still a very solid wrestler and will dominate against Elliott.
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Elliott vs Erceg best bet: Erceg by decision (+100)
Neither fighter is particularly dangerous, so this fight will most likely go the distance.
Three of Erceg's last four wins have been decided by the judges’ scorecards, while Elliott has heard the final bell in five of his last eight bouts.
“Astroboy” should get the better of the wrestling and grappling exchanges, but I’m not confident in his ability to get a finish, so I’m calling for an Erceg decision.
COVERS INTEL: Elliott has landed at least one takedown in 12 straight fights, boasting a career takedown rate of 47%.Tim Elliott vs Steve Erceg odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Elliott | Erceg |
| To win outright | +155 | -180 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +950 | +1300 |
| To win by decision | +335 | +100 |
| To win by submission | +625 | +525 |
| Total rounds | Over 2.5 -250 |
Under 2.5 +190 |
Odds as of 5-1.
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Tim Elliott vs Steve Erceg tale of the tape
| Elliott | Erceg | |
|---|---|---|
| 39 | Age | 30 |
| 5-foot-7 | Height | 5-foot-8 |
| Flyweight | Weight Class | Flyweight |
| 66 inches | Reach | 68 inches |
| 21-13-1 | Record | 13-4 |
| 3 | Wins by KO | 2 |
| 8 | Wins by submission | 6 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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