Daniel Rodriguez vs. Ian Garry will run three rounds in the welterweight division as a featured undercard attraction on today’s UFC Fight Night card from the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina.
The undefeated Garry faces a massive test against the explosive and relentless Rodriguez, who is determined to avoid being labeled as a stepping stone.
UFC odds have Garry as a -295 favorite. Rodriguez is a +245 underdog. Here are our UFC picks and predictions for Saturday's Rodriguez vs. Garry at UFC Fight Night in Charlotte.
Daniel Rodriguez vs Ian Garry fight odds
Daniel Rodriguez vs Ian Garry method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Daniel Rodriguez | Ian Garry |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +800 | +200 |
| To win by Points | +450 | +130 |
| To win by Submission | +2,000 | +900 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on May 11, 2023.
Daniel Rodriguez vs Ian Garry picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Daniel Rodriguez vs Ian Garry betting preview
Ian Garry put on a brutal performance in his last fight, a third-round TKO of Song Kenan. The former WEC welterweight champion has a swagger about him and has the potential to be a breakout star if he can pass this massive test. It won’t be an easy fight for Garry, and he’ll have to show the full extent of his skills to pull this one off.
Two of Garry’s four fights in the UFC have ended inside the distance, and he’s slightly more accurate than his opponent while remaining nearly as busy. The Irishman will enjoy a slight two-inch height advantage over Rodriguez and is 11 years younger. What Garry does well is that he has excellent footwork, good defensive instincts, and is more creative in his offense.
The key for Garry is to be first. Neither fighter has the type of grappling credentials worth mentioning, so this is going to be a battle of wills, blood, and guts. Things could get interesting if Garry — a judo black belt — can box his way in and take Rodriguez down.
We’ve seen Garry suffer through adversity early on, only to storm back and tear his opponent apart as evidenced in the Kenan fight. Rodriguez isn’t going to make things hard for him, but he’ll need to be ready to take some punishment early on.
While Garry is raising his competition, Rodriguez has shown that he’s a tough mid-tier welterweight that can be a handful for the uninitiated. Going into this fight, Rodriguez is talking like he has a chip on his shoulder, and intends on bringing his best to derail Garry’s hype train.
Though Rodriguez is a one-note fighter, working behind an almost endless stream of strikes, he possesses a strong chin and a deep resume. While he’s coming off a loss to Neil Magny, Magny won that fight on the ground en route to a submission win. When opponents can’t wrangle Rodriguez and have to strike with him, it’s usually a losing effort.
Rodriguez’s style does result in him taking his fair share of shots. However, his southpaw stance and higher output could be enough trouble for Garry to handle. We’ve seen Garry get hurt by fighters who don’t possess the same physical strength Rodriguez has, but the 36-year-old won’t be as effective if he lets Garry settle in and has him constantly going first when initiating the offense.
Daniel Rodriguez vs Ian Garry tale of the tape
| Daniel Rodriguez | Ian Garry | |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | Age | 25 |
| 6-foot-0 | Height | 6-foot-3 |
| 171 lbs | Weight | 170 lbs |
| 74 inches | Reach | 74 inches |
| 17-3 (8 KO) | Record | 11-0 (6 KO) |
Daniel Rodriguez vs Ian Garry UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Garry ML
This is a tough fight for Garry, but I think he can win it. Rodriguez is dangerous, but he doesn't always finish and sometimes makes mistakes while defending himself. Garry is a sharp striker and can take advantage of those weaknesses. Garry had some difficulties in his aforementioned fight with Kenan but won't make that mistake when facing a much stronger opponent this time.
This is the best fight for Garry at this stage of his career — even if it seems a little steep — and he should overcome a game, Rodriguez.
Prediction: Garry moneyline (-295 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Garry by decision
Rodriguez must catch Garry early in an attempt to seize momentum. Garry’s speed and movement could get him out of a rough spot or two, and once he starts getting Rodriguez’s timing down, expect him to strike back and take control of the fight.
Rodriguez has never been stopped, and Saturday's opponent will use his skills instead of his grit to win. My best bet is Garry to win by decision.
Pick: Garry to win by decision (+130 at DraftKings)
