The co-main event of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night will be a featherweight firefight between Jack Jenkins and Ramon Taveras, two strikers whose fight will quickly turn into a war of attrition.
UFC odds have Jenkins as the -310 favorite while Taveras is a +230 underdog. Here are my free UFC Fight Night: Jenkins vs. Taveras picks and predictions from Perth.
Jenkins vs Taveras prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Jenkins moneyline (-310 at BET99)
- My best bet: Fight goes the distance (-145 at BET99)
Fight analysis
Much has been made about Jack Jenkins’ versatility as a striker, but as evident in his losses to Chepe Mariscal and Gabriel Santos, it is not a skeleton key to victory. His poor takedown defense has left him vulnerable, and it saw him get finished inside the distance in both bouts.
Still, he remains an exciting fighter with a clear ceiling, and it should be higher than Ramon Taveras'. This matchup figures to be a slugfest, though it could easily turn into target practice for Jenkins.
Jenkins is the hometown favorite and has shown he can do a little bit of everything. His game plan is to walk his opponents down, crowd them, and then land heavy shots or shoot for takedowns. He owns a 61% striking accuracy, landing 4.50 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.97. His offense is boosted by scoring 1.78 takedowns per fight.
The biggest gap in his game is his takedown defense, which has been repeatedly exposed, but this will not be a concern since Taveras neither attempts nor lands takedowns.
Taveras is a one-note brawler who lives and dies by forward pressure and pace. Though he fights as if he is a big puncher, his power is average at best. His fight IQ and defense are liabilities, as he absorbs a staggering 7.41 significant strikes per minute with no grappling to fall back on. His only path to victory is to drag Jenkins into a dog fight, but that would require him to win the majority of exchanges, something hard to envision considering his leaky defense.
Can he do that against a technically superior striker who will likely out-tough him in the clinch? Unlikely. Jenkins will thrive with Taveras walking straight into his strikes and plodding footwork, leaving him a stationary target. This is Jenkins’ fight to lose, and he is the pick..
Best bet analysis
Jenkins and Taveras will spend most of the fight in the middle of the cage with neither willing to take a backward step, but it won’t be long until Jenkins’ class starts shining through and he pulls away.
While Jenkins is the better all-around fighter, he could be in some tough moments as Taveras is incredibly tough and won’t back down even if he’s being outclassed. Bet on both of them toughing it out and this fight going the full distance.
Jack Jenkins vs Ramon Taveras odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Jenkins | Taveras |
| To win outright | -310 | +230 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +235 | +1150 |
| To win by decision | +120 | +425 |
| To win by submission | +850 | +1400 |
| Draw | +5000 | +5000 |
Odds as of 9-27.
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Jack Jenkins vs Ramon Taveras tale of the tape
| Jenkins | Taveras | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Age | 31 |
| 5-foot-7 | Height | 5-foot-8 |
| Featherweight | Weight Class | Featherweight |
| 68 inches | Reach | 70 inches |
| 13-4 | Record | 10-3 |
| 6 | Wins by KO | 5 |
| 3 | Wins by submission | 2 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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