Askar Askarov vs. Brandon Royval is scheduled for three rounds in the flyweight division as a featured undercard attraction on the Saturday, October 16 UFC Fight Night card from Las Vegas.
Askarov is hoping to rebound from a disappointing setback, but he won’t have it easy as the always-exciting Royval is right on his heels in the flyweight rankings.
The Dagestani is favored to come out on top in this battle of ground specialists at -240. Royval is a slight UFC odds underdog, but a live one, at +200.
See who has the UFC betting edge with our Askarov vs. Royval picks.
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Askarov vs Royval fight odds
Askarov vs Royval method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Askar Askarov | Brandon Royval |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +600 | +950 |
| To win by Points | +135 | +600 |
| To win by Submission | +310 | +550 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on October 12, 2022.
Askarov vs Royval picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Askarov vs Royval betting preview
At one point in their respective careers, Askarov and Royval looked like sure things to make a lot of noise. Recent setbacks have put a dent in these fighters’ long-term prospects, making this fight extremely critical to their promotional survival inside the UFC. Narrative aside, this is a sneaky good fight that could stand out at the end of the night.
Askarov is coming off a surprising loss to Kai Kara-France, who himself was soundly outclassed by Royval in the past. The Russian is incredibly efficient with his pacing and has tailored his approach to suit the type of fight, though he is at his best when he can establish his wrestling and work on the ground.
The “Bullet” can do a little bit of everything offensively, as he lands 3.05 significant strikes per minute at 54% and constantly shoots for takedowns, averaging 2.60 per 15 minutes. Prior to joining the UFC in 2019, Askarov had 11 finishes but has gone the distance in his last four fights. Though he climbed past the trial horses at flyweight, he has a draw against Brandon Moreno and the loss to Kara-France to sum up his fights against the division’s elite.
Royval is a high-octane fighter who is becoming a walking highlight reel. Since joining the promotion in 2020, Royval has been part of three “Fight of the Night” clashes, winning each of those fights by submission. The southpaw comes in with a two-inch height advantage and a limitless gas tank that can make him a nightmarish task for the unprepared.
It should come as no surprise that along with his constant pressure, Royval is a tremendous finisher. He’s scored 12 finishes in 14 wins and does his best on the ground hunting for submissions. With a sterling 100% takedown accuracy and averaging 2.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes, a trip to the mat with him could be calamitous. For his takedown prowess is the unfortunate fact that he’s unable to protect himself from takedowns, stuffing only 39% of attempts.
In many ways, these two are similar in their approach. Askarov is a decent boxer and moves his hands well, whereas Royval’s Muay Thai background emphasizes stiff strikes. Neither fighter has shown to be resourceful with their own backs on the mat, but both are extraordinarily tough and will do what they can to fight their way back up. All this should result in an entertaining brawl.
Askarov vs Royval tale of the tape
| Askar Askarov | Brandon Royval | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Age | 30 |
| 5-foot-5 | Height | 5-foot-7 |
| 125 lbs | Weight | 125 lbs |
| 67 inches | Reach | 68 inches |
| 14-1-1 (4 KOs) | Record | 14-6 (3 KOs) |
Askarov vs Royval UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Askarov moneyline
Though Askarov didn’t do himself any favors in the loss to Kara-France, he still has a tremendous ceiling. Any fighter can have a bad night, and Askarov just seemed out of sorts after nearly finishing Kara-France off in the first round. Royval takes a lot of risks to establish his offense, and Askarov’s methodical striking and wrestling could be the perfect foil to his opponent’s twitchy trigger finger.
Because Askarov is the steadier operator, and also because Royval is nearly incapable of defending himself from takedowns, that gives him the edge. Royval is a wild one and could catch Askarov with something wicked, but the odds favoring Askarov feel that he’s technically sound enough to avoid Royval’s charges.
Anything can happen, but we’re comfortable picking Askarov to bounce back from defeat here. Royval is not going to make it easy for him, but it should provide him the platform he needs to deliver a message that he’s still on track for a future title shot.
Prediction: Askarov moneyline (-240 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Askarov by decision
Askarov will need to remain mindful of Royval’s constant submission attempts, and he can quash that by exploiting his poor takedown defense and maintaining ground control. Wit usually outdoes grit, and Askarov should find success in the stand-up when he needs to open Royval up for those takedowns.
We don’t see a stoppage here. We’re going to take Askarov going the distance and coming up with a win by decision at +130.
Pick: Askarov by decision (+130 at DraftKings)
