One of the most anticipated MMA fights in years takes place this weekend, when Conor McGregor returns to the octagon to fight Max Holloway as an encore to their first fight almost 13 years ago.
There is no shortage of wagering options for the main event of UFC 329... and that also includes what is said during the broadcast, as McGregor vs. Holloway mention markets are available at prediction markets such as Kalshi.
Here we break down the trading prices for what Jon Anik, Joe Rogan, and Daniel Cormier will say during McGregor-Holloway 2, with everything from commenting on Conor's fitness... to an emphatic delivery of a knockout call.
What will the announcers say during Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway?
| Phrase | Yes probability | No probability |
|---|---|---|
| Train Trained Training |
65% -186 |
36% +178 |
| Knockout Knock Out Knocked Out |
61% -156 |
41% +144 |
| Tired Tiring |
61% -156 |
40% +150 |
| Blood Bloody Bloodied |
59% -144 |
42% +138 |
| Decision/Judge | 57% -133 |
43% +133 |
| Championship | 50% +100 |
51% -104 |
| Slip Slips Slipped |
42% +138 |
59% -144 |
| Choke Choked Chokehold |
39% +156 |
62% -163 |
| What a Fight | 32% +213 |
70% -233 |
| Dana | 24% +317 |
77% -335 |
| Triangle | 23% +335 |
78% -355 |
| Legal/Illegal | 19% +426 |
82% -456 |
| Lights Out | 16% +525 |
85% -567 |
| Event does not qualify | 9% +1011 |
94% -1567 |
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
McGregor/Holloway mention markets: Most likely phrases to be said
Train/Trained/Training
McGregor's last fight was six years ago — his fitness, technical ability, and overall sharpness within the ring will certainly be a topic of discussion, so it's all but a given that the announcers will bring up how much "The Notorious" has trained (or what his training regimen looked like) leading up to this bout.
Knockout/Knock Out/Knocked Out
The most likely fight outcome, based on industry consensus odds, is Holloway to win by KO/TKO/DQ (and McGregor by KO is the second most likely outcome). Expect the announcers to call the KO if it happens... but also very likely will mention that someone is trying to get the knockout, or looking susceptible to one.
Tired/Tiring
Going hand-in-hand with McGregor's training, there are many questions about his stamina to go the distance in this bout. If this fight hits the later rounds, we'd expect the announcers to comment on Conor looking fatigued — or surprisingly not looking worn down at all.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS20' and get a $20 trading bonus after you trade $20 on any other event contracts — including McGregor/Holloway 2!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
McGregor/Holloway mention markets: Long-shot phrases to be said
Lights Out
If you're looking to get spicy with the announcer's potential knockout call... this would be it. Especially if it's a wild/dramatic blow.
Legal/Illegal
This could apply to actions that take place in the ring (and skirt the border of UFC rules), but it seems unlikely that this high-profile match would have any unnecessary hijinks, which the announcers would comment on. Even unlikelier? The announcers discussing anything legal (or illegal) outside of the ring about each fighter.
Triangle
The most logical reference would be for the triangle choke. Submissions are unlikely in this fight, and if we do get one, the triangle choke is also unlikely — neither fighter has won/lost a match via that submission since McGregor lost to Joe Duffy at Cage Warriors 39... 16 years ago.
What is a mention market?
A mention market is a specialized category of event-based trading where you trade shares on whether a specific word or phrase will be spoken during a live broadcast, like UFC 329. Unlike traditional sports betting, which generally focuses on what happens on the field, mention markets tend to focus on the announcers and the media narrative.
For example: Will the commentators say "Lights Out" if someone is knocked out?
Where to find McGregor/Holloway mention markets
Use the Kalshi app or visit Kalshi online and type "Conor McGregor" into the search bar. You'll see the McGregor vs. Holloway 2 matchup page with list of available markets, then go down to "Mentions," where it lists options for what the announcers will say.
How to read the price of mention markets
Mention markets operate as binary prediction contracts where you can buy "Yes" or "No" shares in a specific phrase, with share prices fluctuating between $0.01 and $0.99 based on the market's perceived probability of that word being spoken.
For instance, if a "Yes" share for the name "What a Fight" is trading at $0.42, the market reflects a 42% chance of its occurrence.
If the word is officially spoken and verified by a formal transcript, "Yes" shares pay out a full $1.00 while "No" shares settle at zero.
What moves McGregor vs Holloway mention markets
Mention markets are extremely sensitive to narratives. They can include a story the broadcast team keeps returning to, an injury that occurs during the fight, or a viral angle that producers know will resonate with audiences.
However, keep in mind that when something becomes obvious to everyone, the market may overprice it. The trick isn’t finding the hottest storyline — it’s deciding whether the current price already bakes in "everyone knows they’ll say it."
Five things to check before you trade
Each market at Kalshi has its own rules, including the official source and the determination criteria used to settle a trade. Before you trade a mention market, scan for these five specifics:
- Exact word vs variants: Does “What a Fight” count if someone says “What a Bout” or “What an Event”? Don’t assume.
- Who must say it: "Announcers" are different than "anyone on broadcast."
- Time window: Is it the market for the official fight broadcast only? Does it also involve the pre-fight or post-game interviews?
- What counts as a mention: Does it only count if it's spoken aloud? What about a quote being read or a replay?
- What source resolves it: The rules should name the record like a transcript or other defined source.
Kalshi posts a comprehensive rules summary beneath every market it carries. When in doubt, click on the "View full rules" or "Help center" buttons for more information.
Treat mention markets like entertainment
Mention markets are a lot of fun, but they can also be high-variance, with one unexpected interview answer flipping everything. Set a small budget and keep your stakes modest as you get ready to tackle mention markets ahead of UFC 329.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
