Valentina Shevchenko faces off against Zhang Weili in the co-main event for UFC 322 on Saturday, November 15.
This should be a banger between the greatest women's flyweight fighter of all time in Shevchenko, and arguably the strawweight GOAT in Zhang, who is moving up to 125 to challenge for the title.
UFC odds have the champ Shevchenko installed as a -145 favorite with Zhang coming back at +120. Here are my best free Shevchenko vs Zhang predictions and picks from Madison Square Garden in New York.
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Shevchenko vs Weili prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Shevchenko moneyline (-145 at BET99)
- My best bet: Shevchenko moneyline (-145 at BET99)
Fight analysis
Zhang Weili is 10-2 in the UFC, with her only defeats coming to Rose Namajunas in 2021. In the first fight against Namajunas, she was starched by a head kick in the opening round, and she lost the immediate rematch in a split decision.
Zhang managed to regain her belt by submitting Carla Esparza in 2022 and made three more title defenses before moving up for a shot at flyweight gold.
Valentina "Bullet" Shevchenko is 11-1-1 since moving to flyweight in 2018. The lone loss during that span came against Alexa Grasso in 2023.
She had a draw in her rematch against Grasso later that year before beating her by unanimous decision in the trilogy fight in 2024. Since then, she defeated Manon Fiorot for her eighth successful title defense in May.
Zhang is a high-volume striker with pop in her hands and powerful wrestling. That said, Shevchenko is also elite in every area, and her jiu-jitsu is better.
In addition, Zhang is a pressure fighter who is at her best coming forward. Stylistically, that plays right into the hands of Bullet, who is a crisp counter striker and will land the cleaner shots.
Shevchenko will use her superior footwork to stay at range and avoid Zhang's power and takedown entries. She can also land takedowns of her own and could secure rounds with top control like Namajunas did.
Best bet analysis
Shevchenko's speed and reflexes aren't what they were in her prime, but she's only a year older than Zhang.
Her loss to Grasso seemed to be due to a lack of focus as she started throwing lazy spin attacks. After years of demolishing challengers, she might have suffered from fight fatigue at the top of the mountain.
However, Zhang represents a real challenge and a fight that she can actually get up for. I expect Shevchenko to be locked in for this matchup, and getting her at close to a pick'em price is tough to turn down.
Valentina Shevchenko vs Zhang Weili odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Shevchenko | Weili |
| To win outright | -145 | +120 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +750 | +725 |
| To win by decision | +125 | +210 |
| To win by submission | +900 | +1400 |
| Draw | +3000 | +3000 |
Odds as of 11-15.
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Valentina Shevchenko vs Zhang Weili tale of the tape
| Shevchenko | Weili | |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | Age | 36 |
| 5-foot-5 | Height | 5-foot-4 |
| Flyweight | Weight Class | Flyweight |
| 66.5 inches | Reach | 63 inches |
| 25-4 | Record | 26-3 |
| 8 | Wins by KO | 11 |
| 7 | Wins by submission | 8 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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