UFC 320 Merab Dvalishvili vs Cory Sandhagen Predictions, Picks & Odds

Merab Dvalishvili puts his bantamweight title on the line against Cory Sandhagen at UFC 320 tonight. 

Dvalishvili will be making his third title defense, and I expect him to retain, with UFC odds installing him at -400.

Here are my best free Dvalishvili vs. Sandhagen predictions for Saturday, October 4, from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas

Dvalishvili vs Sandhagen prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Dvalishvili moneyline (-400 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Dvalishvili by decision (-170 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Merab Dvalishvili is getting close to that dreaded 35-year-old mark, where champions in the smaller weight classes typically fall off. That said, Dvalishvili doesn't seem to be slowing down, and he is actually coming off one of his most impressive performances after submitting Sean O'Malley in June.

That was the 13th consecutive win and the second title defense for Dvalishvili, who has essentially cleaned out the division. The only Top-5 bantamweight that he hasn't defeated is Sandhagen, who is getting his first crack at the undisputed title after years of being a contender.

Sandhagen is 4-1 in his last five fights, and he's a sharp striker with a diverse arsenal and underrated grappling. However, his grappling isn't nearly good enough to withstand Merab's dominant wrestling.

The Georgian is incredibly strong and relentless with his chain wrestling. He averages 5.84 takedowns per 15 minutes, and Sandhagen was taken down five times by Umar Nurmagomedov when he lost last year.

Sandhagen doesn't have the power to put away Dvalishvili early, so expect the champ to use his elite wrestling and weaponized cardio to grind out another title defense.

Best bet analysis

In a recent interview with Shakiel Mahjouri, Merab said that he wants a knockout and that "this fight is going to be 90% striking."

I don't buy it. Dvalishvili isn't afraid to mix it up, but his bread-and-butter is his wrestling.

This is a guy who attempted a whopping 133 takedowns in his last six fights. Considering that he had 11 takedown attempts against an Olympic gold medal wrestler in Henry Cejudo, I don’t see him passing up the chance to use his wrestling against a striker like Sandhagen. 

Merab is an elite wrestler who spams takedowns and has excellent control, but he isn't typically a submission threat. Merab is coming off the first sub of his UFC career, and 11 of his last 13 wins have come by decision.

Meanwhile, Sandhagen has good defensive grappling and excellent scrambling, which should help him survive until the final bell.

Merab Dvalishvili vs Cory Sandhagen odds

Method of Victory	Dvalishvili	Sandhagen
To win outright	-380	+295
To win by KO/TKO	+725	+850
To win by decision	-180	+600
To win by submission	+700	+2250
Draw	+3500	+3500

Odds as of 10-4.

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Merab Dvalishvili vs Cory Sandhagen tale of the tape

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