UFC 320 Magomed Ankalaev vs Alex Pereira Predictions, Picks & Odds

Magomed Ankalaev and Alex Pereira face off for a highly anticipated rematch in the main event at UFC 320 tonight. 

Pereira lost his light heavyweight championship to Ankalaev in March, but after three successful title defenses, he's been given an immediate chance to regain the belt.

Oddsmakers don't think he'll get it back, with UFC odds installing Ankalaev as a -280 favorite and Pereira coming back at +210.
  
Here are my best free UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 predictions and picks for Saturday, October 4, from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Ankalaev vs Pereira prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Ankalaev (-260 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Ankalaev by KO/TKO or Decision (-190 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Ankalaev hasn't tasted defeat since his UFC debut in 2018, when he was submitted at the last second in a fight he was dominating. Since then, he has gone 12-0-1, which is the second-longest unbeaten streak in division history. 

Alex Pereira is a former world champion kickboxer who has also been a two-division champ in the UFC. His light heavyweight reign came to an end in March when Ankalaev beat him by unanimous decision. 

That was a competitive bout, but Ankalaev clearly earned the victory, and I don't see a different result in the rematch.

It didn't look like we got the best version of Pereira in that bout, and he was likely fatigued since that was his seventh fight in the previous 23 months. That said, he's not going to be any better now that he's 38 years old and has been contemplating retirement, according to a since-deleted post on X.  

Ankalaev went 0-12 on takedown attempts, but the threat of the takedown kept Pereira on the back foot and reluctant to let his hands go. The Dagestani fighter couldn't drag Pereira to the mat but was able to use his wrestling to pin him against the cage and win minutes while draining his energy. 

Pereira was supposed to be the superior kick-boxer, but Ankalaev had a 94-76 edge in significant strikes. That gap gets even wider when you consider that the majority of Pereira's strikes were leg kicks. Ankalaev had a combined 66 significant strikes to the head and body, while Pereira landed just 28. 

Pereira's death-touch power is his biggest strength, but Ankalaev is defensively sound and has a granite chin. The Russian also has better boxing with faster hands and sharper timing. Expect him to disrupt Pereira's offensive rhythm and pick him apart with his distance management, pressure, and superior technique. 

Best bet analysis

I like Ankalaev to retain the belt, but his moneyline price is getting a tad too steep. Keep in mind that he closed as a short +100 underdog in the previous fight just seven months ago and opened at -180 for this bout. 

He's been steamed all the way to -280, but we can still chop his number down to -190 by betting this double method to win prop. Despite his well-rounded style, Ankalaev doesn't have a single win by submission in his MMA career and hasn't even attempted a sub in the UFC. 

Six of Ankalaev's previous eight wins have come by decision, but he has power and wobbled Pereira in the second round in the previous fight. The Brazilian has gotten hurt in fights before and has been saved by the bell. 

He's taken plenty of punishment in his combat sport career, and we could see a more aggressive version of him since he's fresh off a loss where he was backing up the whole time. Ankalaev could win by points again or we could see Pereira go out on his shield. 

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Magomed Ankalaev vs Alex Pereira odds

Method of Victory	Ankalaev	Pereira
To win outright	-260	+210
To win by KO/TKO	+220	+265
To win by decision	+140	+850
To win by submission	+950	+3300
Draw	+5000	+5000

Odds as of 10-4.

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Magomed Ankalaev vs Alex Pereira tale of the tape

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