UFC 315 Benoit Saint Denis vs Kyle Prepolec Predictions, Picks & Odds

Kyle Prepolec takes on No. 13-ranked lightweight contender Benoit Saint Denis at UFC 315 in Montreal tonight.

Prepolec hasn't competed in the UFC since 2019, and UFC odds have him installed as a massive +750 underdog, with Saint Denis coming back at -1400. 

My Saint Denis vs. Prepolec predictions have the heavy favorite making quick work of his opponent on Saturday, May 10.

Saint Denis vs Prepolec prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Saint Denis moneyline (-1400 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-170 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Benoit Saint Denis was one of the fastest rising stars in the division just a year ago when he entered UFC 299 on a five-fight winning streak. He faced long-time lightweight contender Dustin Poirier as a -220 favorite at that event, but was knocked out in the second round.

Saint Denis came back to the octagon later that year and was hammered with ground-and-pound by Renato Moicano, leading to a doctor's stoppage after the second round. That said, he's in a good spot to bounce back against an overmatched foe here — especially since BSD is now training under a head coach, unlike his last few bouts when he was coaching himself. 

We've seen young and hungry fighters outperform expectations on short notice before, but Prepolec is a 35-year-old who already has eight career losses and has been fighting on the regional circuit in Canada. He was previously cut by the UFC after losing both of his previous fights in the promotion, and he only got called up since he was already scheduled to fight in Montreal this weekend.

Prepolec was outstruck 90-52 by Nordine Taleb when he made his promotional debut in 2019, and was dominated on the mat by Austin Hubbard later that year. He doesn't have the striking or wrestling to hang with Saint Denis, who is a high-volume kickboxer with top-notch grappling.

Saint Denis is better than Prepolec in every area, which is why he's a massive favorite. He should get back in the win column but we'll need to look elsewhere for betting value. 

Best bet analysis

With odds this lopsided, it generally makes sense to expect a dominant performance from the favorite and bet the Under on total rounds. The betting traps in these situations typically apply when the favorite isn't a finisher, either fighter has a control-heavy style, or the favorite is coming in overconfident. 

None of those apply here. Saint Denis is an aggressive fighter, and all 13 of his career wins have come by stoppage (with only one going past the second round). Prepolec doesn't have the skillset to stifle his offense, and Saint Denis will be heavily motivated after back-to-back defeats. 

Despite being a massive underdog, Prepolec has a puncher's chance and has won his last three fights by first-round knockout. BSD moves back in a straight line and tends to drop his hands. That makes him hittable, and given his last two defeats, his chin might be compromised.

Whether it's a likely quick finish from Saint Denis or a shocking upset by Prepolec, I don't see this bout going past the midway point of Round 2. 

Benoit Saint Denis vs Kyle Prepolec odds

Method of Victory	Saint Denis	Prepolec
To win outright	-1400	+700
To win by KO/TKO	+140	+1300
To win by decision	+750	+1700
To win by submission	+105	+2700
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 5-10.

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Benoit Saint Denis vs Kyle Prepolec tale of the tape

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