UFC 300 Gaethje vs Holloway Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Defending the BMF Belt

Justin Gaethje will put his BMF belt on the line against Max Holloway on the main card for tonight's UFC 300 betting.

While the symbolic BMF title is a marketing gimmick, it's reserved for matchups that look like bangers. That should be the case here with the former featherweight champion Holloway moving up to lightweight to face Gaethje, who earned the nickname "The Highlight" for his entertaining tilts. UFC odds have Gaethje as a -170 favorite, with Holloway coming back at +150. 

Here are my best free Gaethje vs. Holloway picks and predictions for UFC 300 on April 13.

Justin Gaethje vs Max Holloway fight odds

Method of Victory	Gaethje	Holloway
To win outright	-170	+135
To win by KO/TKO	+140	+675
To win by points	+335	+235
To win by submission	+2,100	+1,450
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of BET99 on 4-13-2024.

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Gaethje vs Holloway picks

Fight prediction: Gaethje

Holloway has absorbed a whopping 1,335 significant strikes to the head across 28 UFC fights and has somehow never been knocked down, let alone knocked out. That said, he has taken a ton of damage in recent bouts and at some point, that granite chin has to give out.

Moving up in weight to face a heavy-hitter like Gaethje, who has 10 knockouts in his last 12 wins, might be the final straw. Keep in mind that the two victories during that span where Gaethje didn't get the finish were scheduled for three rounds instead of five like this clash and that he still heavily damaged his opponents in both fights.  

While MMA math is rarely a good method to project a winner, it's worth mentioning that in Holloway's only UFC fight at lightweight, he lost to Dustin Poirier by scores of 49-46 in 2019. Gaethje is coming off a spectacular head-kick knockout of Poirier, and his kicks (especially his leg kicks) could prove problematic for the boxing-heavy Holloway. 

Gaethje's power should make the difference here since Holloway relies on volume to hurt his foes. He's fresh off a knockout win against the Korean Zombie, but KZ's chin is long gone and that was Holloway's first finish since a doctor's stoppage way back in 2018.

Even if Holloway is able to make it to the final bell, that's no guarantee that his output and cardio will earn him a victory. He has plenty of scar tissue built up, and it won't take many hard hits for him to start bleeding. Even if he doesn't get dropped, getting stunned by heavy shots and having a busted-up face are never good optics for the judges. 

Prediction: Gaethje moneyline (-170 at BET99)

Fight best bet: Gaethje by knockout or decision

I could see the hard-hitting Gaethje crack Holloway's granite chin, but I could also see him edging out a decision win. After all, he throws with plenty of volume of his own, and he has also an impressive gas tank since he trains at high elevation.

What I can't see Gaethje doing is winning by submission, since this fight will likely stay standing up, and he has never even attempted a sub in the UFC. If the double method to win option is available at your book, you may as well back him to win by knockout or points at a better number than the straight moneyline. 

Pick: Gaethje by KO/TKO or points (-150 at BET99)

Gaethje vs Holloway betting preview

In Gaethje's most recent bout, he starched Dustin Poirier with a head kick to claim the BMF title. That victory allowed him to even the score against Poirier, who defeated him in a back-and-forth battle back in 2018. Since that 2018 loss, Gaethje has gone 7-2 in the octagon, with his only two defeats coming in title fights against Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira.  

The 35-year-old is an aggressive fighter that has earned a performance bonus in 10 of his 12 bouts in the promotion. Despite having a background as an All-American wrestler, Gaethje seldom utilizes his wrestling except to defend against takedowns. He prefers to rely on his striking, where he attacks his opponents with leg kicks and heavy hands.

Max "Blessed" Holloway has an impressive 18-4 record in the UFC over the last decade. Three of those defeats came in featherweight title bouts against Alexander Volkanovsi, while the other loss came in his only lightweight bout when he faced Poirier for the vacant belt.

Blessed is known for his slick boxing, with elite movement and incredible volume that he can sustain for 25 minutes. He averages 7.17 significant strikes per minute, and his UFC career record of 3,197 significant strikes is an incredible 1,200 more than second-place Angela Hill.

Justin Gaethje vs Max Holloway tale of the tape

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