Paddy Pimblett vs. Tony Ferguson is scheduled for three rounds in the lightweight division and is a featured attraction on the UFC 296 undercard tonight from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
The decline of former interim champion Ferguson shows no signs of reversing, and Pimblett is hoping to notch a win over the veteran to exorcize his professional demons.
UFC odds have Pimblett the significant betting favorite at -300, and Ferguson, winless in his last six, is a +230 underdog.
Here are my free betting picks for Pimblett vs. Ferguson at UFC 296 on December 16.
Ferguson vs Pimblett fight odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Tony Ferguson | Paddy Pimblett |
| To win outright | +235 | -310 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +675 | +290 |
| To win by points | +675 | +215 |
| To win by submission | +1,250 | +245 |
| Draw | +2,500 | +2,500 |
Odds courtesy of Bet99 on December 16, 2023.
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Ferguson vs Pimblett picks
Fight prediction: Paddy Pimblett ML
No matter how hard people are rooting for Pimblett to lose, this is not going to be the fight where it happens.
Watching Ferguson’s rapid decline after an incredible winning streak is getting painful to the point where it’s also masochistic. The striking resistance is gone, the versatility is gone, and he’s been losing to progressively lesser opposition each time out.
Pimblett struggled against Gordon, but that won't be the case here. With his striking volume and grappling skills, Pimblett can get right on top of Ferguson and make things rough from the opening bell.
Ferguson’s experience and wrestling background could help him survive, maybe even scramble out of trouble on the ground if Pimblett takes him down, but I get the sense a moral victory is all Ferguson is hoping for as of late.
Because Pimblett is still in the prospect stage of his career and needs to erase the Gordon mishap, he will not give Ferguson any moments. The call is that Pimblett hands Ferguson his seventh consecutive defeat and that Ferguson finally hangs them up.
Prediction: Paddy Pimblett moneyline (-300 at Bet99)
Fight best bet: Paddy Pimblett to win by submission
Things haven’t looked good for Ferguson in a while, and won’t get any better against Pimblett.
At this point, Pimblett carries every major advantage and is expected to walk through the badly faded veteran. While Pimblett is far from a world-class fighter, this is a mix of Ferguson’s decline and Pimblett’s potential.
Ferguson has been stopped four times in his last six defeats and was dominated in the two decision defeats. Pimblett has won four of his last five inside the distance and is an adept finisher when he gets the opportunity. All of this points to Pimblett getting a finish.
Going off Ferguson’s last loss to Bobby Green, who scored a rare submission win in that fight, Pimblett rocking Ferguson with a series of shots and finishing him on the ground is a likely scenario. I’m going with Pimblett to finish Ferguson by submission as my pick of the fight.
Pick: Paddy Pimblett to win by submission (+260 at Bet99)
Ferguson vs Pimblett betting preview
Pimblett returns to the octagon after his controversial victory over Gordon and hopes he puts his best foot forward against Ferguson.
Though he’s not as ready for his primetime push, Pimblett is a solid offensive fighter with good finishing instincts. Pimblett boasts a 41% striking defense, attempts 2.4 submissions per fight, and has an average fight time of 7:45.
Former interim titleist Ferguson hasn’t been the same since a brutal loss to Justin Gaethje at UFC 249. His six-fight losing streak is one thing but the manner of those defeats is even more alarming. He's been outstruck against every opponent, including his submission loss to Green.
The 40-year-old future Hall of Famer needs a vintage performance to win this bout and reverse his fortunes. Pimblett showed vulnerability against Gordon’s wrestling, which is Ferguson's best path to victory. Expect the rested Pimblett to be focused and on point to put the Gordon debacle behind him.
Ferguson vs Pimblett tale of the tape
| Tony Ferguson | Paddy Pimblett | |
|---|---|---|
| 39 | Age | 28 |
| 5-feet-9 | Height | 5-feet-8 |
| 155 lbs | Weight | 155 lbs |
| 76.5 inches | Reach | 73 inches |
| 26-9-0 | Record | 20-3-0 |
Not intended for use in MA.
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