Wimbledon’s first round has unleashed historic shocks over the years, like No. 135-ranked Steve Darcis toppling Rafael Nadal in 2013, and No. 203-ranked Ivo Karlovic stunning defending champion Lleyton Hewitt in 2003.
While we may not see any opening round upsets of that magnitude, the quick adjustment from the dirt to the grass and varying degrees of experience on the slippery turf can produce upsets.
With that in mind, my Wimbledon Day 1 predictions have found three such players who could defy the Wimbledon odds and pull off an upset on Monday, June 30.
Wimbledon best bets for June 30
- 🎾 Jacob Fearnley moneyline (+184)
- 🎾 Katie Boulter moneyline (+150)
- 🎾 Botic van de Zandschulp moneyline (+165)
- 💲 +464 parlay💲
Wimbledon Day 1 predictions
Jacob Fearnley moneyline (+184 at FanDuel)
Heavily favored teen phenom João Fonseca, hampered by a 3-6 career grass record, faces a formidable challenge in his Wimbledon main-draw debut against seasoned local star Jacob Fearnley.
Fonseca’s forehand has overpowered Fearnley on slower surfaces and enters as the clear favorite. Yet, I rate this match a near coin flip, driven by Fearnley’s grass-court mastery, a sharper return game (with a 31% break point conversion rate on grass), the home-crowd energy, and a proven record on this surface.
Katie Boulter moneyline (+150 at bet365)
Burdened by pressure and injuries, former World No. 2 Paula Badosa, with a 22-15 career grass record, faces a formidable test on Centre Court in her Wimbledon 2025 opener against gutsy local favorite Katie Boulter.
Badosa has outlasted Boulter on clay and enters as the clear favorite. Because of the surface and Badosa’s fitness, I rate this match much closer than the Wimbledon odds suggest.
Boulter boasts a 53-32 grass-court record. Her tenacious return game, vocal home-crowd support, Badosa’s fragile fitness (two early retirements in Berlin, June 2025), and a walkover loss this year give Boulter an edge to victory.
Botic van de Zandschulp moneyline (+165 at FanDuel)
Heavily favored Matteo Arnaldi, with a 1-4 Wimbledon main-draw career record, faces a daunting test in his 2025 opener against upset maestro Botic van de Zandschulp.
Arnaldi, an Italian rising star, enters as the clear favorite. Still, I rank van de Zandschulp a slight favorite, driven by his flawless 4-0 Wimbledon opening-round record and big-time upsets over Alcaraz and Djokovic.
His sharp return should exploit Arnaldi’s inconsistent serve enough to upset Arnaldi on the Italian's least-favorite surface.
Today's top Wimbledon matches
- No. 2 seed Carlos Alcaraz vs Fabio Fognini
- No. 3 seed Alexander Zverev vs. Arthur Rinderknech
- No. 5 seed Taylor Fritz vs. Giovanni Mpetsi Perricard
- No. 1 seed Aryna Sabalenka vs. Carson Branstine
- No. 4 seed Jasmine Paolini vs. Anastasija Sevastova
- No. 5 seed Qinwen Zheng vs. Katerina Siniakova
Today’s Wimbledon moneyline parlay
Olga Danilovic moneyline
Learner Tien moneyline
Harriet Dart moneyline
Alexei Popyrin moneyline
Current Wimbledon favorites
| Men | Women | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | +120 | Aryna Sabalenka | +260 |
| Jannik Sinner | +200 | Elena Rybakina | +600 |
| Novak Djokovic | +650 | Coco Gauff | +800 |
| Jack Draper | +1800 | Iga Swiatek | +900 |
| Alexander Zverev | +3000 | Madison Keys | +1500 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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