Adorned in diamonds from head to toe, Serena Williams entered Arthur Ashe Stadium Monday night as a heavy favorite and responded, as legends do, with a straight-set victory over Montenegro’s Danka Kovinic.
Standing in her way is Estonia’s Anett Kontaveit. The No. 2 ranked player in the world and the No. 2 seed at this event breezed through first-round opponent Jaqueline Cristian in straight sets 6-3, 6-0 to set up this Wednesday, August 30 showdown.
It’s the legend vs the up-and-comer, and we break it all down for you with our US Open picks and predictions.
Williams vs Kontaveit odds
| Serena Williams | Anett Kontaveit | |
|---|---|---|
| +170 | Moneyline | -210 |
| +2.5 (+110) | Game spread | -2.5 (-135) |
| Over 20.5 (-120) | Total games | Under 20.5 (+100) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on Aug. 30, 2022.
Williams vs Kontaveit picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Williams vs Kontaveit betting preview
Queen Serena is still alive in this tournament.
It wasn’t pretty, or easy, but Serena outlasted Kovinic in straight sets on Monday night to set up a second-round clash with Estonian Annet Kontaveit.
Serena made a dramatic entrance Monday night into Arthur Ashe Stadium, and the standing-room-only crowd of 23,000 plus rose to their feet with each and every winner off of her Wilson racquet.
Nearly every net cord and close call went Serena’s way against Kovinic, and the biggest server the WTA has ever seen fired nine aces alongside five double-faults en route to her first-round victory and 102nd in Arthur Ashe Stadium.
Serena definitely had the crowd in her corner, and they’ll need to be her wingman again Wednesday night, because her young Estonian opponent is a ballplayer.
Kontaveit is no joke on the cement, as she posts a superb 42-13 record on hard courts over the past 52 weeks and is 17-8 on the asphalt in 2022.
The Estonian No. 1 is 4-3 over the summer hard court season and has cited recent struggles from contracting COVID-19 and needing nearly two months to recover, which seems to be a reasonable excuse for her inconsistent results.
Kontaveit doesn’t have the biggest service game on tour, but she holds at a 73% clip, rarely double-faults, and averages nearly four service breaks per match.
Williams got off to a 2-0 start on Monday but lost the next three games, and she can’t afford to do so against Kontaveit. Her big serve bailed her out more than once against Kovinic, and she’ll need to pound out a few free points and let the crowd do the rest.
For Kontaveit, it’s all about staying in the moment and not allowing the crowd to influence the match the way they did on Monday night. She needs to take charge from the first ball, otherwise, she might be in for a war she doesn’t have the confidence to win.
Williams vs Kontaveit predictions and best bet
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the players and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this match. Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this match or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Williams moneyline
If there was ever a time to bet the ‘dog, Wednesday night is it, and Serena Williams is that underdog.
Imagine having to face an opponent in front of 24,000 fans cheering your every miss — one who’s won more matches at Arthur Ashe Stadium (102) than you have over your entire grand slam career (37)?
That would be a daunting task for anyone to deal with, but when your opponent is arguably the greatest player to ever step on the court, and you aren’t very confident in your game?
That could be a recipe for disaster.
Kontaveit may be the No. 2 player in the world on paper, but most of her success in 2022 happened prior to February. She was also working with coach Dimitri Tursonov through all of that success, but they parted ways in July and the results have been spotty.
The Estonian is just 5-5 on the cement since losing a straight-set final to Iga Swiatek in Doha, and 11-10 overall since the February loss to Swiatek. She’s cited post-COVID-19 fatigue as the culprit. The forecast calls for hot, humid conditons, and fatigue could play a huge factor in this match.
Williams found herself down 2-3 in the first set when somehow a miss-hit backhand return grazed the line and turned the match around. She started to anticipate better, her serve was popping, and the crowd cheered and jeered Kovinic straight off of the court.
Look for Serena to get off to a fast start on Wednesday behind her big serve. Expect Williams to focus on her serve, attack the less-than-confident Estonian, and hopefully frustrate her enough to force Kontaveit to play bigger than she normally does. The crowd jeering Kontaveit’s every miss will be too much to deal with, and Serena will twirl her way into the third round of this event.
Prediction: Williams moneyline (+170 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Williams +3.5 games
Williams is in for a real battle Wednesday night, but she won’t go off quietly into the night. She’ll have nearly every seat in the house on her side — inherently a bad thing for Kontaveit.
These are two extremely aggressive, hard-hitting ladies with better-than-average return games, and no matter the outcome, I see it as a close match likely decided by a tiebreaker or two.
Finally, neither player has set the world on fire recently and this could either be a high-quality, hard-hitting affair or it could get ugly, with an abundance of service breaks and a gazillion unforced errors. Either way this goes, it should be very close and 3.5 games are too many for this match.
Pick: Williams +3.5 games (-120 at DraftKings)
