The Netflix Slam Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Rafael Nadal vs Carlos Alcaraz

The Mandalay Bay Michelob Ultra Arena will be rocking when Netflix collaborates with the ATP Tour to bring us the Netflix Slam featuring Spanish legend Rafael Nadal and rising star and World No. 2-ranked Carlos Alcaraz.

Nadal enters this matchup with only a handful of matches under his belt since suffering a rib injury at the 2023 Australian Open that sidelined him for the remainder of his 2023 campaign.

Alcaraz is coming off a 2023 season where he went 65-12 with six titles, including Wimbledon. Still, an injury in Rio has caused concerns about his fitness heading into next week’s Indian Wells ATP Masters 1000. 

Join me as I break this down with free betting picks for the Netflix Slam matchup between Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz on Sunday, March 3.

Rafael Nadal vs Carlos Alcaraz picks and predictions

• Prediction: Rafael Nadal ML (+180)
• Best bet: Rafael Nadal ML (+180)

Click on each prediction to read full analysis.

Rafael Nadal vs Carlos Alcaraz odds

Odds courtesy as of March 2, 2024.

Rafael Nadal vs Carlos Alcaraz match prediction

Sunday’s Netflix Slam exhibition in Las Vegas will be played between two of the most famous athletes in all of Spain and maybe all of tennis.

Rafael Nadal is the King of Clay but he's also the most decorated tennis player in Spanish tennis history and a formidable hardcourt player with the fourth-most ATP Tour-level on such surface. He's played just three matches since the first week of January, skipped the 2024 Australian Open citing an injury, and before that, missed most of the 2023 ATP season. 

World No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz is headed towards Nadal-type fame in Spain and has a pair of Grand Slam titles on his mantle. He’s struggled with his form thus far this season, is coming off of an ankle injury scare in Rio, and hasn’t played since.

He seems to have recovered from the Rio injury, and that’s a good thing because his wheels are his main weapon, and he’ll need them against the relentless groundstrokes from both wings he’ll see from Nadal.

With both players recovering from injury and the upcoming Masters 1000 event at Indian Wells looming large, we should expect to see a big-hitting affair with some trick shots, extended rallies, and brilliant shot-making, with Rafael Nadal finding a way to come out on top. 

Prediction: Rafael Nadal moneyline (+180)

Rafael Nadal vs Carlos Alcaraz best bet

Rafael Nadal is the king of Spanish tennis. He may not have put Spanish tennis on the map, but he did put it on steroids, and no one knows that better than Carlos Alcaraz.

Alcaraz knows all about Nadal’s 22 Grand Slam titles — he knows all about the 518 career hardcourt wins, the 36 Masters titles, the two unlikely Wimbledon titles, and so much more.

He knows because he’s likely watched tapes of Nadal’s early career matches and grew up watching his hero dominate Roland Garros and the rest of the ATP Tour from his living room since he was a little boy. His grinding style is like Nadal’s, but where they differ is how quickly Alcaraz goes from defense to attack — no one has done this better than Carlos. 

Still, we may not see as much of that on Sunday as re-aggravating his ankle injury could prevent him from defending the massive number of points he has to defend from Indian Wells to Wimbledon. 

Nadal has known about Carlos Alcaraz for a long time. He’s aware of the fist-pumps, the feathery, well-timed ankle-breaking drop shots, and his young compatriots' two major titles by the time he was 20 years old. 

The future Hall of Famer and King of Clay also knows he holds a 2-1 lifetime edge over his younger opponent — he’s fully aware of how Alcaraz has struggled with his consistency since winning Wimbledon and has watched the young Spaniard crumble like a cookie under the weight of the large expectations placed upon his young shoulders.

Nadal also knows he has nothing to lose on Sunday. The pressure is solely on Alcaraz; no one loves being the underdog more than Nadal. Rafa fully understands he’s in the twilight of his legendary career, and he also knows Alcaraz won’t try to embarrass him with too many droppers. 

This should be a fun match to watch with trick shots, extended rallies, and more, but Sunday could be the final time Nadal will play Alcaraz, and exhibition or not, he'll make the young Spaniard feel his game.

The last thing Alcaraz wants to do is embarrass his hero, and Nadal will use that to his full advantage. He’ll deploy his usual grinder style, find a way to win this match, and remind Alcaraz again why they refer to Nadal as El Toro. 

Best bet: Rafael Nadal moneyline (+180)

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