You can dance if you want to. I would, if I cashed a bet on “will there be a safety?” in the Super Bowl.
This popular long-shot prop promises big payouts but has only occurred in nine of the 59 previous Super Bowls.
Will a safety be scored when the Seattle Seahawks battle the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX on February 8?
The chances are less than convincing. You might have to leave your friends behind to bet on this one.
Super Bowl 60 safety odds
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
According to BetMGM sportsbooks, the “Yes” on a Super Bowl LX safety is priced at +850 (10.53% implied probability), with the “No” listed at -2000 (95.24% implied probability).
Like many long shot markets, these odds don’t reflect the actual chance of a safety being scored in the Super Bowl.
Looking at historical data, safeties occur in about 7% of NFL games overall. That should have the “Yes” on this prop market listed around +1300.
Even if you temper those projections due to the frequency of a safety in the Super Bowl, many sportsbooks offer far shorter return than the true odds.
Four of the nine Big Game safeties have come in the modern sports betting age (with the prop widely available for wagering), including a trio of safeties in 2012, 2013 and 2014.
Since that streak, operators are protective of their position on the safety, knowing it will draw one-sided action from the general public and take a significant chunk out of their Big Game handle should it hit.
As for the Super Bowl LX safety prop, the “Yes” can vary from book to book, with some shops as high as +1000. If you want to take a flier on the safety happening, be sure to shop around.
If you don’t mind laying the lumber for the “No,” I suggest waiting closer to kickoff as the betting masses will flood the “Yes” side of this prop and provide a cheaper buyback for those more “realistic” gamblers.
Super Bowl safety history
There have been nine safeties scored across 59 Super Bowls, panning out to a 15% occurrence on Super Sunday.
Most recently, a safety popped up in three straight Big Games in Super Bowls XLVI, XLVII, and XLVIII between 2012 and 2014.
The most common situation leading to a Super Bowl safety has been a quarterback sack in the end zone (four times), and we have two pass rushes in Seattle and New England who have gotten after the QB in the postseason, along with two quarterbacks who have absorbed their share of sacks in recent weeks.
Games with a safety in 2025-26
There were a dozen safeties scored across the NFL this past regular season — a 4.4% occurrence across all games. There has yet to be a safety scored in the playoffs.
The New England Patriots recorded a rare safety in a blowout win over the Browns in Week 8. Cleveland quarterback Dillion Gabriel was flagged for intentional grounding while throwing from his own end zone, resulting in a safety for New England.
Neither the Patriots nor the Seattle Seahawks conceded a safety this season.
Super Bowl 60 safety prediction
If you’ve got Men Without Hats already cued up on Spotify, go bet the safety prop on Super Sunday. This is a fun flier to have a modest wager on. Granted, it’s a long shot not paying out what it should.
As always, scour the books for the best return on a Super Bowl safety, and don’t wait until the weekend to eat the worst of the number.
For those that don’t mind risking $2,000 to win $100 on the “No,” I suggest waiting closer to kickoff and shopping for the slimmest ask, as books will see one-sided action on the “Yes” and discount the more likely side of this market.
Prediction: Yes (+850)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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