Trent Frederic Goals Scored Props • Edmonton

Rogers Place
Wyatt Johnston. Mikko Rantanen. Matt Duchene. Evander Kane. Those are just a few of the notable weapons Mason Marchment has generated more expected goals than in this series. He has created a lot. In fact, Jason Robertson is the only player on the Stars roster who has accumulated more xG than Marchment through three games. Marchment averaged a goal every three games in the regular season. He has gone 11 straight games without a goal — his longest drought of the year — despite playing close to 15 minutes per night and generating plenty of scoring opportunities. He almost exclusively plays against Edmonton’s depth units, which gives him a better chance of spending time in the offensive zone and making something happen.
Leon Draisaitl is priced with the lowest odds of any goalscorer in this game, and for good reason. He has scored in more than half of his games this year and has potted more 5-on-5 goals in the playoffs than all but Mikko Rantanen, who has a couple of extra appearances to his credit. Draisaitl has gone back-to-back games without scoring. That is an eternity for Draisaitl. Believe it or not, he has only gone more than two straight games without a goal twice all year long. That is downright insane over an 85-game stretch. He is as consistent as they come and ranks second among all players in scoring chances in this series. Look for him to make one count in Game 4.
Mikko Rantanen was an unstoppable force for the first chunk of the playoffs but he’s suddenly gone quiet. He has produced just two points over his last five games and has failed to find the back of the net in six consecutive games. The good news for Rantanen: the dry spell is not a byproduct of a lack of opportunity. He leads all Stars players in scoring chances (18) during this drought and has recorded 30 shot attempts, good for an average of five per game. Rantanen is one of the best pure finishers in the sport. If he’s getting chances, they’re going to start finding the net. For as well as Stuart Skinner has played of late, it’s also worth remembering he posted an .891 save percentage over 51 games in the regular season. It’s not as if he’s untouchable.
Robertson was a standout in Game 3 with the lone goal and five shots on 11 attempts. After missing time to start the postseason, he’s also now picked up two or more shots in five of his past eight contests. Robertson regularly traded with a 3.5 shots total during the 2023-24 season, and while his shots and attempts per 60 minutes were down this year, he’s being discounted too much at this stage of the game. Plus, he’s projected to skate on the top line and No. 1 power-play unit and has paced Dallas in attempts per 60 (17.47) since returning to the lineup during the playoffs.
It’s been a bit of a quiet start to the series for Rantanen. He’s picked up a pair of assists and turned his 13 attempts into just three shots through the first three games. Still, Rantanen paced Dallas forwards in ice time (19:39 per night), and he recorded 6.11 shots and 13.23 attempts per 60 minutes through the first two rounds of the postseason, so I’m anticipating an uptick in volume after posting respective 8.7 and 16.5 marks against the Oilers to start the Western Conference Final.
I’m anticipating a push-back game from the Stars, which includes putting plenty of pucks on net again in Game 4. Skinner turned away 33 of 34 shots in Game 3, and he’s sporting a high-end .955 save percentage with 7.35 goals saved above expected across his past five starts. He'll be hard pressed to maintain that level of play, but there’s plenty of wiggle room for statistical correction and this Over 23.5 saves to still cash Tuesday.
Connor McDavid has produced 22 points through 14 playoff games, which is a higher per-game pace than he posted during the regular season. He's done his best work on home ice, recording multiple points in four of six games in Edmonton, tallying 11 total points. That’s just under two per game. He feasted on the Stars in Game 3, scoring his first two goals of the series while being on the ice for three Edmonton markers.
Last Meeting ( May 25, 2025 ) Dallas 1, Edmonton 6
The Dallas Stars insist they are playing well enough to win their Western Conference finals series against the Edmonton Oilers.
However, as the Stars prepare for Tuesday's key Game 4 contest in Edmonton, they trail 2-1 in the best-of-seven series and are in desperate need for their game-breakers to make a difference.
Dallas deserved a better fate in Sunday's 6-1 loss, but that does not change the fact that too many key players didn't contribute.
Jason Robertson scored, but that was just his first goal of the playoffs while he battles back from injury.
Mikko Rantanen has gone six games without a goal, as has Wyatt Johnston.
Meanwhile, Matt Duchene has one tally in the playoffs, Tyler Seguin has scored in one of the last 13 games and captain Jamie Benn is on a 13-game swoon.
To top it off, goaltender Jake Oettinger has been outdueled by his Edmonton counterpart Stuart Skinner while Dallas has been outscored 9-1 in the past two games.
"It's frustrating, and it's sometimes hard to not let the frustration come, but we've got to do our best to not let it come to our minds," Rantanen said. "We've just got to stick with it."
Whether the potential return of Roope Hintz, who missed last game due to injury and is listed as day-to-day, makes a difference remains to be seen. Hintz is hopeful to play.
But the Stars are well aware they must turn the tide or be knocked out by the Oilers in the conference finals for the second consecutive year.
"We still have an opportunity to try and get one on the road," Robertson said. "I don't think it's any frustration with what we have to do. There are a lot of veterans in this room and they're going to be up to the challenge."
The Oilers, meanwhile, are rolling, having won 10 of their last 12 games as they look to take a stranglehold on the series.
As much as Skinner was the difference-maker in Sunday's loss by making 33 saves, including 20 in the second period, the Oilers are finding a way to win in a variety of ways.
The Game 3 clash was a textbook example of what Edmonton can do with minimal scoring chances. Perhaps no better example was Connor McDavid's clutch goal in the final seconds of the second period. While the Stars were pressing for the equalizer, McDavid received one opportunity off a turnover and buried his second goal of the game.
It also marked a breakout for the superstar who had scored only three goals in the playoffs prior to Sunday.
"I think people forget he's a 60-goal scorer," Zach Hyman said. "I mean, he's probably an underrated goal-scorer. He makes the right play, whether it's a pass or a goal, right? ... And when he has an opportunity to shoot it, and he shoots it, there's a good chance it goes in."
Unlike years past, though, the Oilers are more than just the McDavid and Leon Draisaitl show. Eighteen skaters have scored at least one goal, and seven have at least five.
Hyman tallied twice in a three-point game, defenseman Evan Bouchard leads all defensemen with six goals and 17 points, and the leading point producer in the series is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who has notched a pair of goals and five assists in the three outings.
"For his whole career, he's been able to be a two-way player. He's just that type of guy," Skinner said of Nugent-Hopkins. "That's why he's such a huge part of our team and a huge part of the organization."
Defenseman Mattias Ekholm, who hasn't played in the postseason due to an injury, may return, and forward Connor Brown, who exited the last game after receiving a hard and high hit from Alex Petrovic, is out.
--Field Level Media