NHL Picks

Svechnikov was the best player on the ice in Game 4, and he’s been a force all series long with 13 shots on 29 attempts. He’s recorded four or more attempts in all four games and has climbed to the No. 1 line with Sebastian Aho and Jackson Blake. The trio clicked for a 64.0 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five in Game 4, and Svechnikov is also a primary shooter on the No. 1 power-play unit. He leads all Carolina forwards with a 67.2 CF% and 70.03 expected goals percentage at 5-on-5 for the series, too.

Seth Jarvis has some of the most drastic home/road splits you will find. The hard-nosed winger has generated at least three shots on goal in 66% of his home games this season. That’s a stark contrast from the 28% hit rate he’s managed on the road. He's struggled to produce shots when Sheldon Keefe and the Devils have last change, failing to record three in any of the games in Jersey. The Hurricanes are a much different team when playing in Carolina, and Jarvis’ shot numbers are the epitome of that.

Karlsson joined Jack Eichel and Pavel Dorofeyev at five-on-five to close out Game 4, and the trio stuck during Monday’s practice. While it was a limited sample, they were on the ice for 12 shot attempts and just three against across 6:52, and Karlsson skating in the top-line gig is a huge boost for his scoring potential. Karlsson also finished Game 4 with a postseason-high four shots and 22:25 of ice time, and he jumps the boards with the No. 2 power-play unit. Still, this is all about skating with Eichel. The star center has collected just a single assist and hasn’t been on the ice for a five-on-five goal this series. Karlsson plays a responsible 200-foot game, and I expect him to help free up Eichel offensively.

To this point of the series, Vegas’ special teams has outplayed Minnesota’s. The Golden Knights are clicking at a 36.4% rate on the power play right now, while the Wild’s penalty kill is at a 63.6%. On the opposite side, Minnesota’s man-advantage is at just 25%, as Vegas’ penalty kill stands at 75%. Adin Hill needed to have a strong bounceback performance in Game 4, and that he did. Hill stopped 29 of the 32 shots that he faced, skating to a .906 SV% for the game. Hill hasn’t been at his best in the first round, but sometimes all you need is one good game to get you going in the right direction. I think that Game 4 victory will change the course of this series for Hill and the Golden Knights. 

Evander Kane has been a shooting machine since being inserted into the Oilers' lineup. He's played just three games and hit the ground running, piling up a whopping 20 shot attempts. All of them came during 5-on-5 play. Kane leads Oilers forwards in 5-on-5 shot attempts over the last three games despite playing at least 10 fewer minutes than the likes of Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid. Kane has been extremely efficient, to say the least.

It was a quiet Game 4 for Gallagher. He failed to hit the net on his only shot attempt after piling up nine shots and 22 attempts through the first three games of the series. I expect him to be more involved again Wednesday, considering he’s second on the club in attempts per 60 minutes through four games. Additionally, I value Gallagher’s willingness to shoot when he isn’t in prime real estate. Of his 23 attempts just two have qualified as high-danger scoring chances and only six counted as scoring chances.

After putting up four points in the first three games of this series, Sam Bennett was held off of the scoresheet in Game 4, but with that said, he was still able to put up three shots on goal. In this series, he has had a minimum of three shots in three of the four games that have been played. This season, Bennett has averaged 3.17 shots per game, and if the Florida Panthers are going to close this series out on the road, he will have a big part in that. Bennett is currently tied with Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart for the team lead in points in the playoffs. He has two goals and two assists through four games. 

It’s been a solid but unspectacular start to the series for Verhaeghe. He picked up an assist in Game 1 and scored an empty-net goal in Game 4. Otherwise, he’s been relatively quiet and playing consistently against the two best lines and top-four defensemen for Tampa Bay. Verhaeghe has only been on the ice for three goals and 2.64 expected goals at five-on-five and four and 4.15 overall through the four games, too. Additionally, Game 4 was an incredibly low-event contest, and I expect Game 5 to play out similarly.

With Gabriel Vilardi (upper body) expected to return to action Wednesday, Iafallo projects to lose his spot on the No. 1 power-play unit and slot down a line and skate with Vladislav Namestnikov and Cole Perfetti at five-on-five. It’s a significant hit to Iafallo’s offensive upside, and he hasn’t hit the scoresheet since his Game 1 goal despite a cushy gig skating with Mark Schiefele and Kyle Conner – Winnipeg’s two best scorers. Additionally, Namestnikov, Iafallo and Perfetti only played 39:18 together at 5-on-5 during the regular season, so there isn’t oodles of chemistry to build on.

The Jets won the first two games of Round 1 on home ice and went 30-7-4 at the Canada Life Centre during the regular season. Winnipeg also limited St. Louis to just 2.76 expected goals and eight high-danger scoring chances across Games 1 and 2, which aligns with the Jets allowing the fewest goals per game (1.95) on home ice during the regular season. Winnipeg No. 1 Connor Hellebuyck has played poorly, but the Jets have been the better team for the majority of the series, and Hellebuyck did post an elite .925 save percentage with a league-high 48.8 GSAx during the regular season. He bounces back Wednesday, and the Jets take a 3-2 series lead.