NHL Picks

The Washington Capitals have controlled only 41.57% of high-danger chances at 5-on-5 over the last 10 games, ranking 31st in the league. They’re consistently getting outplayed, and that should continue against the Columbus Blue Jackets. Their share of high-danger chances over the same span is ~10% higher than Washington’s, and they also have the added motivation of closing out their season on a high note on home ice. Washington’s tendency to get out-chanced could be even more problematic with Clay Stevenson in net. Stevenson is a 27-year-old journeyman with a .892 save percentage through four NHL starts, and he is unlikely to measure up to Jet Greaves at the other end of the rink.

The Philadelphia Flyers sit third in the Metro and can’t move in the standings, making them unlikely to ice a full lineup in this back-to-back. Samuel Ersson is expected to get the nod in goal and it’d be surprising if several key players didn’t sit out in front of him. That sets up well for Montreal. The Canadiens are still pushing for home ice in their series against Tampa Bay, giving them incentive to put their best foot forward.

The Hurricanes are set to rest multiple regulars Tuesday, but I’m still anticipating them piling up shots against Rittich tonight. Carolina paces the NHL in shots per game (33.1) and also leads the league in Corsi For percentage at five-on-five since the calendar flipped to March, and Rittich is well rested and turned away 30 of 32 shots in his most recent start March 14.

Connor has cashed the Over in shots on target in four of his last six contests. While the points have not shown up recently, Connor continues to make his presence felt. Most importantly, he’s lit up Utah this season, with nine SOG across just two meetings.

Olli Maatta has become a stalwart on Calgary's blueline, logging Over 1.5 blocked shots in eight of his last 11 outings. He'll see tons of rubber coming his way tonight with the Avalanche averaging a league-leading 33.7 shots per game.

Snuggerud has played exceptional hockey alongside Thomas and Holloway on what has been one of the league’s best lines. That trio has absolutely run over everybody in its path, out-scoring opponents 20-5 at 5-on-5 while posting excellent underlying metrics since being assembled. They also fully correlate on the top power play, allowing their chemistry to flourish in easy offensive situations. That’s an important factor heading into a matchup with the Penguins, who’ve conceded a power play goal in five of the last six games in which they took at least two penalties. 

Clarke has seen a dip in his shots with just six across his past five games, but he’s still recorded 18 attempts during the stretch. He continues to see power-play time and sports a 57.5% shot rate at five-on-five, so I’m expecting him to pick up two or more shots in a favorable matchup against the Canucks tonight.

The Czechia native has cashed the Over in SOG in five of his last six. He just had five SOG against Anaheim and another six versus San Jose. The Canucks also faced the Kings last week, and Hronek put three pucks on target.