Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Picks

After revamping the o-line, Houston still allowed C.J. Stroud to suffer three sacks, get hit seven times, and feel the heat on 41% of his dropbacks in a loss to the L.A. Rams in Week 1. Adding injury to insult (and more injury, with guard Ed Ingram still out) was the loss of starting center Jake Andrews to a high ankle sprain. That porous pass protection faces a Tampa Bay defense just dying to hit a quarterback. Under Todd Bowles, the Buccaneers have a very aggressive pass rush that blitzes at a high rate. This feels like a lower-scoring slog with the Bucs blitzers making game-changing plays for the underdog.

It’s a favorable setup for Schultz—an indoor home game against a Bucs defense that struggled to contain Kyle Pitts in Week 1. Schultz tied for the team lead in targets last week, despite playing just 54% of snaps and running a route on 60% of dropbacks. The Texans’ 3-WR sets lacked any real pass-catching punch, and new OC Nick Caley may be forced to adjust, which should mean more involvement for Schultz. There’s also a clear path to increased snaps with fellow tight end Cade Stover out for the foreseeable future due to a fractured foot after playing 57% of snaps in Week 1. I’m on Schultz at +240 and would play it down to +210.

With Chris Godwin still rehabbing his injury, Mike Evans will once again be the focal point of the Bucs’ offense on Monday night. Evans had 11 touchdowns in just 14 games last season, and the Texans’ secondary is susceptible to top wide receivers.

Last season, Nico Collins had a total of seven touchdown catches, but did the majority of his damage at home with six of them coming at NRG Stadium in Houston. In fact, he had a touchdown catch in five of his six home games, with the lone outlier being the 31-2 loss to Baltimore in Week 17.

The Texans allowed 21 completions last week to Matt Stafford despite playing in the lowest-scoring game of Week 1. They did a good job containing the run game, forcing more passes. They can do that this week as well, after the Bucs had only 101 yards rushing last week on 23 carries. The Bucs are underdogs and could be playing from behind. This should give Mayfield a similar number of attempts to last week, and I expect a much better completion percentage.

Schultz went 3/28/0 on five targets in Week 1, but with more routes and limited WR competition, he’s in line for a bump. I’m projecting six to seven targets, four to five catches, and 45+ receiving yards. The Bucs also gave up seven catches on eight targets to Kyle Pitts last week.

Thanks to a bad offensive line, C.J. Stroud was pressured on 14 of his 34 drop-backs and was sacked three times in Week 1. However, he also took off running five times for 32 yards.  Last week, the Bucs generated 20 pressures on 46 drop-backs. They will apply pressure to Stroud, forcing him to scramble and pick up yards with his feet. 

Haason Reddick was tied for the Week 1 lead with eight pressures, and a pass rush win rate of 25%. He will lead a Tampa Bay pass rush that won’t have to deal with Joe Mixon’s rushing ability, and should be able to pin its ears back.

That makes Stroud’s rushing total of 10.5 yards a very enticing play here. Nick Chubb isn’t going to present much of a rushing threat, and Stroud will likely be in plenty of situations where he’s behind the chains. 

Add in the leaky line and Tampa Bay’s pressure, and he’s going to need to make plays with his legs. Stroud ran for 32 yards on five carries last week, and will get to double-digit yardage here as well.