Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Picks

1st in NFC South (7 - 7 - 0)

Next Game

at

Sun, Dec 21 13:00 ET

TB @ CAR Picks

Total

o45.5 (-104)

Best Odds

Pick made: yesterday

Tampa Bay has had a mini bye to get over a Thursday Night Football loss to Atlanta and enters Week 16 with its full arsenal of offensive weapons. The Buccaneers put up 338 yards and 28 first downs on TNF, averaging 5.5 yards per play and going 3 for 3 in the red zone. They just sucked on defense. Tampa Bay allowed close to 500 yards of offense from the Falcons, who scored 29 points. Carolina’s defense was almost as bad in a Week 15 flop at New Orleans. The Panthers made the Saints look good, with NOLA racking up 337 yards, 27 first downs, and 6.7 yards per play. The Panthers get to come home this Sunday, where their offense averages over six points more than on the road. This Over/Under sits just short of the key number of 46 points and feels too short considering the poor defenses we’ve seen from these divisional foes.

Passing Attempts

Baker Mayfield u32.5 Passing Attempts (-106)

Projection 30.21 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

A running game script is implied by the Buccaneers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.. Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 10th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. In this game, Baker Mayfield is projected by our trusted projection set to have the 8th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 32.5.

-106 at FanDuel

Passing Yards

Baker Mayfield u236.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Projection 215.06 (Under)

Best Odds

u236.5 -115

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u227.5 -112

u229.5 -110

u228.5 -114

u236.5 -115

u230.5 -117

A running game script is implied by the Buccaneers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.. Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 10th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. In this game, Baker Mayfield is projected by our trusted projection set to have the 8th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 32.5. . Baker Mayfield has passed for many fewer adjusted yards per game (188.0) this season than he did last season (274.0).

Passing Yards

Bryce Young u215.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Projection 199.57 (Under)

Best Odds

u215.5 -115

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u205.5 -113

u207.5 -110

u204.5 -114

u215.5 -115

u203.5 -114

The leading projections forecast the Carolina Panthers as the 6th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to see just 126.8 total plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.. The model projects Bryce Young to throw 32.1 passes this week, on average: the 6th-fewest out of all QBs.. With a subpar 6.66 adjusted yards-per-target (17th percentile) this year, Bryce Young has been as one of the least effective QBs in the NFL.

Interceptions Thrown

Bryce Young u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-107)

Projection 0.41 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

The leading projections forecast the Carolina Panthers as the 6th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 53.8% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to see just 126.6 total plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.. The model projects Bryce Young to throw 32.0 passes this week, on average: the 8th-fewest out of all QBs.. Tampa Bay's defense ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year as it relates to producing interceptions, averaging 0.87 per game.

-107 at DraftKings

Receiving Yards

Mike Evans u60.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 52.95 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

A running game script is implied by the Buccaneers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.. Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 10th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Mike Evans has accrued a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (44.0) this year than he did last year (73.0).. This year, the strong Carolina Panthers defense has conceded a feeble 62.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 7th-smallest rate in the league.

Receiving Yards

Bucky Irving o15.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 19.78 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

Receiving Yards

Rico Dowdle o13.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 15.34 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

A passing game script is suggested by the Panthers being a -3-point underdog in this game.. The Buccaneers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (35.6 per game) this year.. Rico Dowdle has been a big part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 9.5% this year, which places him in the 81st percentile when it comes to running backs.. Rico Dowdle checks in as one of the best pass-catching RBs this year, averaging an outstanding 17.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 84th percentile.. Rico Dowdle's pass-game effectiveness has improved this year, notching 7.34 adjusted yards-per-target vs a measly 5.27 rate last year.

Receiving Yards

Emeka Egbuka o46.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 48.63 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

Rushing Yards

Bryce Young o12.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 19.19 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Carolina Panthers to run on 46.1% of their plays: the 6th-highest rate among all teams this week.. With a stellar tally of 6.3 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (79th percentile), Bryce Young stands as one of the leading rushing QBs in the NFL this year.

Rushing Yards

Rico Dowdle o59.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 60.99 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Carolina Panthers to run on 46.1% of their plays: the 6th-highest rate among all teams this week.. The predictive model expects Rico Dowdle to earn 15.2 rush attempts this week, on balance, ranking him in the 81st percentile when it comes to running backs.. Rico Dowdle has been given 55.6% of his team's run game usage this year, ranking him in the 87th percentile when it comes to running backs.. With a terrific total of 60.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (89th percentile), Rico Dowdle ranks among the leading pure runners in the NFL this year.

Consensus Picks

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Consensus Picks

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'Jackson2399' is picking Carolina to cover (+1.5)

Jackson2399 is #4 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (11-3-0) and +5600 units on the season.

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'Jackson2399' picks Tampa Bay vs Carolina to go Under (45.5)

Jackson2399 is #4 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (11-3-0) and +5600 units on the season.

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'samua' is picking Carolina to cover (+1.5)

samua is #5 on picking games that Carolina is in with a record of (10-4-0) and +5100 units on the season.

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'samua' picks Tampa Bay vs Carolina to go Over (45.5)

samua is #5 on picking games that Carolina is in with a record of (10-4-0) and +5100 units on the season.

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'TwoDrunk2Bunt' picks Tampa Bay vs Carolina to go Over (46.0)

TwoDrunk2Bunt is #6 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +5150 units on the season.

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'TwoDrunk2Bunt' is picking Carolina to cover (+3.0)

TwoDrunk2Bunt is #6 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +5150 units on the season.

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'campellnyr917' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (-1.5)

campellnyr917 is #8 on picking games that Carolina is in with a record of (8-3-0) and +4700 units on the season.

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'campellnyr917' picks Tampa Bay vs Carolina to go Over (45.5)

campellnyr917 is #8 on picking games that Carolina is in with a record of (8-3-0) and +4700 units on the season.

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'rodger snyder' picks Tampa Bay vs Carolina to go Over (44.5)

rodger snyder is #8 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (11-3-0) and +5100 units on the season.

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'rodger snyder' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (-2.5)

rodger snyder is #8 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (11-3-0) and +5100 units on the season.

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