Los Angeles Chargers
Picks

1st in AFC West (2 - 0 - 0)

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DENDenver

LACL.A. Chargers

Sun, Sep 21 16:05 ET

DEN @ LAC Picks

NFL Picks

Spread

LAC -2.5 (-110)

Best Odds

-3.0 -105

Pick made: 10 hours ago

-2.5 -112

-2.5 -120

-2.5 -118

-3.0 -105

-2.5 -120

Chargers QB Justin Herbert hasn’t had a turnover-worthy play through two games and ranks second in air yards, third in success rate and eighth in aDot. So, with this spread Under the key number of 3, I want the side the better quarterback is on.

Passing Yards

Bo Nix o218.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Projection 241.1 (Over)

Best Odds

o218.5 -115

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o218.5 -115

The leading projections forecast the Broncos to be the 10th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 62.0% pass rate.. At just 27.54 seconds per snap, the Broncos offense ranks as the 8th-fastest paced in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year.. The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Broncos grades out as the best in football since the start of last season.

-115 at BetMGM

Passing Yards

Justin Herbert o235.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Projection 251.6 (Over)

Best Odds

o235.5 -115

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o235.5 -115

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers as the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually correlate with better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.. In this week's game, Justin Herbert is predicted by the projections to have the 8th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 35.9. . The Broncos defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (36.5 per game) since the start of last season.. Justin Herbert's passing precision has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 64.6% to 71.8%.

-115 at BetMGM

Interceptions Thrown

Bo Nix u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-105)

Projection 0.4 (Under)

Best Odds

u0.5 -105

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 -105

Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Chargers, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 30.3 per game) since the start of last season.. The Los Angeles Chargers safeties project as the 8th-best group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

-105 at BetMGM

Receiving Yards

Ladd McConkey o50.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Projection 68.9 (Over)

Best Odds

o50.5 -115

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o50.5 -115

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers as the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually correlate with better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.. The Broncos defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (36.5 per game) since the start of last season.. The Broncos defense has surrendered the 5th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (153.0) vs. wideouts since the start of last season.. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Denver's group of LBs has been dreadful since the start of last season, projecting as the 7th-worst in the NFL.

-115 at BetMGM

Receiving Yards

Courtland Sutton o58.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Projection 65.2 (Over)

Best Odds

o58.5 -115

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o58.5 -115

The leading projections forecast the Broncos to be the 10th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 62.0% pass rate.. At just 27.54 seconds per snap, the Broncos offense ranks as the 8th-fastest paced in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year.. The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. In this game, Courtland Sutton is projected by the projection model to slot into the 85th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.6 targets.. When it comes to air yards, Courtland Sutton ranks in the towering 98th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, accumulating an astounding 99.0 per game.

-115 at BetMGM

Rushing Yards

Justin Herbert o19.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 24.1 (Over)

Best Odds

o19.5 -110

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o19.5 -110

Our trusted projections expect Justin Herbert to accumulate 6.1 rush attempts in this game, on average: the 7th-most out of all quarterbacks.. The predictive model expects Justin Herbert to be a more integral piece of his offense's running game in this contest (24.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (11.8% in games he has played).. With a terrific total of 7.0 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (82nd percentile), Justin Herbert rates as one of the best running quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season.

-110 at BetMGM

Rushing Yards

Bo Nix o21.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Projection 26.4 (Over)

Best Odds

o21.5 -115

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o21.5 -115

At just 27.54 seconds per snap, the Broncos offense ranks as the 8th-fastest paced in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year.. The Chargers defense owns the 8th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, surrendering 4.70 adjusted yards-per-carry.

-115 at BetMGM

Consensus Picks

View all Consensus Picks

Spread

75% picking L.A. Chargers

25% 25%

75% 75%

Total Picks DEN 143, LAC 430

Spread

DEN

LAC

Spread

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Los Angeles Chargers Picks

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DEN @ LAC Picks

Consensus Picks

75% picking L.A. Chargers

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