Los Angeles Chargers

1st in AFC West (4 - 2 - 0)

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INDIndianapolis Indianapolis
at
Los Angeles LACL.A. Chargers
Sun, Oct 19 16:05 ET

IND @ LAC Picks

NFL Picks
Rushing Yards
Jonathan Taylor logo Jonathan Taylor o88.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Best Odds
o89.5 -114 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
Rohit Ponnaiya image
Rohit Ponnaiya
Betting Analyst
o90.5  -111
These are quick bet odds
 -
o89.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o91.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
o90.5  -115
These are quick bet odds

Taylor has rushed for a league-high 603 yards on 5.2 yards per pop and he's fresh off a 123-yard performance against Arizona. This is a lofty rushing yards total but the two-time Pro Bowler has rushed for more than 95 yards in eight of his last 11 games. The Chargers are sixth in the league in defensive dropback EPA but just 22nd in defensive rush EPA. That poor run defense has been exposed in the last four weeks with the Bolts surrendering 144.8 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per rush attempt. 

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Score a Touchdown
Josh Downs logo Josh Downs Score a Touchdown (Yes: +260)
Best Odds
 +275 DraftKings
Pick made: yesterday
Josh Inglis image
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
 +275
 +250
 +260
 -
 +265

The No. 1 scoring offense in the league hits the road this week, but the indoor setting should benefit Daniel Jones and the Colts. Backing this offense has been a smooth ride—they’ve scored 33, 29, 41, 20, 40, and 31 points over the last six games, and scoring in the red zone at a crazy 92.3% clip over the last three games.  Josh Downs played only 50% of the snaps last week, but he was on the field for every 3-WR set and led all Colts receivers in targets (7) and receptions (6). Most importantly, he saw three red-zone targets—more than any other wide receiver in Week 6. He closed at +310 to score and is +260 this week. That’s strong value in a high-total, indoor matchup with a receiver clearly getting quality looks.

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Indianapolis Colts logo IND +1.5 (-110)
Best Odds
+1.5 -106 Caesars
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 2 days ago
Jason Logan image
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst
+1.5  -108
These are quick bet odds
+1.5  -110
+1.5  -108
These are quick bet odds
+1.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
+1.5  -106
These are quick bet odds

Los Angeles has allowed its last four foes to average almost 145 rushing yards, including 137 gains on the ground from the Dolphins in a lucky 29-27 win at Miami in Week 6. Despite three turnovers from the Fins, the Bolts still needed a wild sack-shedding 42-yard catch-and-run to set up the game-winning field goal in the dying seconds. Given that porous Chargers’ run stop, Indy’s playbook will feature a lot of Jonathan Taylor grinding behind an offensive line ranked No. 4 in run block win rate. The Colts can control possession and pace and park L.A. QB Justin Herbert on the sideline. Given limited touches, an already one-dimensional Los Angeles offense (missing its top two RBs and passing at a 65% rate the last three games) is easier to scheme for.

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Score a Touchdown
Kimani Vidal logo
Kimani Vidal Score a Touchdown (Yes: +110)
Projection 0.76 (Yes)
Best Odds
 +110 FanDuel
Pick made: 5 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
 -105
 -105
 +110
 -105
 +100
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 62.0% of their chances: the 5th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.. The 7th-most plays in the league have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a staggering 59.3 per game on average).. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may fall-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game against the Colts defense this year: 9th-most in football.. The opposing side have rushed for the 5th-fewest TDs in football (0.50 per game) against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year.
+110 at FanDuel
Score a Touchdown
Quentin Johnston logo
Quentin Johnston Score a Touchdown (Yes: +180)
Projection 0.48 (Yes)
Best Odds
 +180 FanDuel
Pick made: 5 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
 +135
 -
 +180
 +130
 +160
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 62.0% of their chances: the 5th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.. The 7th-most plays in the league have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a staggering 59.3 per game on average).. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may fall-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game against the Colts defense this year: 9th-most in football.. Quentin Johnston has been a big part of his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 25.0% this year, which places him in the 91st percentile among wideouts.
+180 at FanDuel
Passing Yards
Justin Herbert logo
Justin Herbert o249.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Projection 270.17 (Over)
Best Odds
o249.5 -114 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
o250.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
 -
o249.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o255.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o250.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 62.0% of their chances: the 5th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.. The 7th-most plays in the league have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a staggering 59.3 per game on average).. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may fall-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game against the Colts defense this year: 9th-most in football.. Justin Herbert has passed for significantly more adjusted yards per game (248.0) this year than he did last year (218.0).
-114 at FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Passing Yards
Daniel Jones logo
Daniel Jones o217.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Projection 232.29 (Over)
Best Odds
o217.5 -114 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
o224.5  -112
These are quick bet odds
 -
o217.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o218.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o219.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Indianapolis Colts ranks as the 4th-best in football this year.. Daniel Jones's 69.7% Adjusted Completion% this season signifies a noteable growth in his passing precision over last season's 63.4% rate.. Daniel Jones's 7.85 adjusted yards-per-target this year signifies a remarkable gain in his passing effectiveness over last year's 6.1% figure.
-114 at FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
OG
Oronde Gadsden o25.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 35.43 (Over)
Best Odds
o25.5 -115 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o27.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
 -
 -
o25.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
 -
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 62.0% of their chances: the 5th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.. The 7th-most plays in the league have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a staggering 59.3 per game on average).. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may fall-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game against the Colts defense this year: 9th-most in football.. The Colts linebackers project as the worst collection of LBs in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.
-115 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Quentin Johnston logo
Quentin Johnston o54.5 Receiving Yards (-130)
Projection 68.9 (Over)
Best Odds
o54.5 -130 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
o60.5  -111
These are quick bet odds
 -
o60.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o54.5  -130
These are quick bet odds
o60.5  -102
These are quick bet odds
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 62.0% of their chances: the 5th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.. The 7th-most plays in the league have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a staggering 59.3 per game on average).. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may fall-off.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game against the Colts defense this year: 9th-most in football.. This week, Quentin Johnston is forecasted by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 90th percentile among wide receivers with 8.2 targets.
-130 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
TW
Tyler Warren u61.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
Projection 57.62 (Under)
Best Odds
u62.5 -110 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 35 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
u62.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
 -
u57.5  -114
u61.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
u58.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 10th-least pass-focused offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 59.6% pass rate.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see only 127.2 plays on offense called: the 5th-fewest out of all the games this week.. The Chargers defense has yielded the 3rd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 32.0) vs. TEs this year.. This year, the fierce Chargers defense has given up the 4th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing tight ends: a paltry 6.0 yards.. As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Los Angeles's collection of safeties has been exceptional this year, ranking as the 6th-best in the NFL.
-110 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Rushing Yards
Daniel Jones logo
Daniel Jones o16.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
Projection 26.1 (Over)
Best Odds
o16.5 -111 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 35 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
o16.5  -111
These are quick bet odds
 -
o17.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o16.5  -120
These are quick bet odds
o16.5  -120
These are quick bet odds
The leading projections forecast the Colts to be the 10th-most run-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 40.4% run rate.. In this contest, Daniel Jones is anticipated by the predictive model to garner the 7th-most rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 5.4. . While Daniel Jones has been responsible for 13.5% of his offense's rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Indianapolis's run game in this game at 19.8%.. The Los Angeles Chargers defense owns the 8th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, surrendering 4.90 adjusted yards-per-carry.
-111 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Rushing Yards
Jonathan Taylor logo
Jonathan Taylor u90.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Projection 76.99 (Under)
Best Odds
u91.5 -110 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
u90.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
 -
u89.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
u91.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
u90.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see only 127.2 plays on offense called: the 5th-fewest out of all the games this week.. The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Los Angeles's DT corps has been exceptional this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.
-110 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Rushing Yards
Justin Herbert logo
Justin Herbert o15.5 Rushing Yards (-116)
Projection 19.5 (Over)
Best Odds
o13.5 -114 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 18 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o15.5  -116
These are quick bet odds
 -
o13.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o16.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
o15.5  -117
These are quick bet odds
The 7th-most plays in the league have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a staggering 59.3 per game on average).. Justin Herbert's 25.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year reflects a meaningful growth in his rushing ability over last year's 19.0 rate.. Justin Herbert's 8.28 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year reflects a noteworthy boost in his running proficiency over last year's 6.89 rate.. As it relates to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Indianapolis's group of LBs has been lousy this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in the league. in the league.
-114 at FanDuel
These are quick bet odds

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Consensus Picks

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Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

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Consensus Picks

Top User Picks

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User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.
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'skunty4' is picking Indianapolis to cover (+1.5)

skunty4 is #1 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (5-1-0) and +4450 units on the season.

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IND
LAC
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+2.0 -109
-1.5 -105
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'sockss109' is picking L.A. Chargers to cover (-1.5)

sockss109 is #2 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (6-0-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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IND
LAC
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+2.0 -109
-1.5 -105
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'sockss109' picks Indianapolis vs L.A. Chargers to go Under (48.0)

sockss109 is #2 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (6-0-0) and +3900 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
47.5 -123
48.5 -104
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'bluetide007' is picking L.A. Chargers to cover (-1.0)

bluetide007 is #3 on picking games that Indianapolis are in with a record of (5-1-0) and +4950 units on the season.

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IND
LAC
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+2.0 -109
-1.5 -105
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'bluetide007' picks Indianapolis vs L.A. Chargers to go Over (48.5)

bluetide007 is #3 on picking games that Indianapolis are in with a record of (5-1-0) and +4950 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
47.5 -123
48.5 -104
Total

'Kansas2014' picks Indianapolis vs L.A. Chargers to go Under (48.5)

Kansas2014 is #3 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (5-1-0) and +3900 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
47.5 -123
48.5 -104
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'Kansas2014' is picking Indianapolis to cover (+1.5)

Kansas2014 is #3 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (5-1-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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IND
LAC
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+2.0 -109
-1.5 -105
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'bryanoens' is picking L.A. Chargers to cover (-1.5)

bryanoens is #4 on picking games that Indianapolis are in with a record of (6-0-0) and +4950 units on the season.

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IND
LAC
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+2.0 -109
-1.5 -105
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'dberry963' picks Indianapolis vs L.A. Chargers to go Under (48.5)

dberry963 is #5 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (6-0-0) and +3900 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
47.5 -123
48.5 -104
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'dberry963' is picking Indianapolis to cover (+1.5)

dberry963 is #5 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (6-0-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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IND
LAC
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+2.0 -109
-1.5 -105
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'kriskro' picks Indianapolis vs L.A. Chargers to go Over (48.5)

kriskro is #5 on picking games that Indianapolis are in with a record of (3-1-0) and +3950 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
47.5 -123
48.5 -104
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'kriskro' is picking Indianapolis to cover (+1.5)

kriskro is #5 on picking games that Indianapolis are in with a record of (3-1-0) and +3950 units on the season.

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IND
LAC
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+2.0 -109
-1.5 -105
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'Dippopotamus' is picking L.A. Chargers to cover (-1.5)

Dippopotamus is #6 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +3500 units on the season.

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IND
LAC
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+2.0 -109
-1.5 -105
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'Manning2008SB' picks Indianapolis vs L.A. Chargers to go Under (48.5)

Manning2008SB is #7 on picking games that Indianapolis are in with a record of (6-0-0) and +3900 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
47.5 -123
48.5 -104
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'Manning2008SB' is picking L.A. Chargers to cover (-1.5)

Manning2008SB is #7 on picking games that Indianapolis are in with a record of (6-0-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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IND
LAC
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+2.0 -109
-1.5 -105
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'Sancheezy' is picking Indianapolis to cover (+1.5)

Sancheezy is #7 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (2-1-0) and +3450 units on the season.

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IND
LAC
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+2.0 -109
-1.5 -105
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'northlv6238' is picking L.A. Chargers to cover (-1.5)

northlv6238 is #8 on picking games that Indianapolis are in with a record of (4-2-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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IND
LAC
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+2.0 -109
-1.5 -105
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'northlv6238' picks Indianapolis vs L.A. Chargers to go Over (48.5)

northlv6238 is #8 on picking games that Indianapolis are in with a record of (4-2-0) and +3900 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
47.5 -123
48.5 -104
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'emotionlessrat' is picking Indianapolis to cover (+1.5)

emotionlessrat is #8 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (4-1-0) and +3450 units on the season.

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IND
LAC
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+2.0 -109
-1.5 -105
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'emotionlessrat' picks Indianapolis vs L.A. Chargers to go Under (48.5)

emotionlessrat is #8 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (4-1-0) and +3450 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
47.5 -123
48.5 -104

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