Los Angeles Chargers

Picks

Wide receiver Courtland Sutton leads the Broncos with 122 targets this season, including double-digit targets in each of the last four weeks. While RJ Harvey has a team-leading 12 touchdowns, his odds sit at -155, whereas Sutton, with seven touchdowns, is getting nearly 2-to-1 odds. Sutton had a midseason lull but recorded three touchdowns in his first four games and three in his last five contests. As big favorites at home, Bo Nix and the Broncos should look to air it out, making Sutton a strong bet to find the end zone.

Trey Lance came out of North Dakota State University as a highly-touted dual-threat quarterback. He rushed for 18 touchdowns in 19 games across his college career, including 14 in the 2019 season. Lance has run for just one touchdown in the NFL, so we’re getting some fairly long odds for him to find paydirt this week. Nevertheless, the Denver Broncos have allowed a few quarterback rushing touchdowns this season, including two weeks ago to Trevor Lawrence. With the Los Angeles Chargers resting some starters, look for Lance to take matters into his own hands at this nice price.

The Broncos are great at defending quarterback scrambles and Lance has not run much in his limited action this season. 

This number is just too high despite the positive game script, as he has only hit this number twice all season. 

Bo Nix only had 153 yards passing in their last matchup with the Chargers and has struggled against heavy zone defense this season. 

The Broncos have allowed 15 or more completions in 12 of 16 games this season, and I'm anticipating Los Angeles to set Lance up for success with short and intermediate throws Sunday afternoon. And, with the Bolts a huge underdog, look for Lance to continue airing it out throughout. Plus, opponents have averaged the sixth-most pass attempts per game (36.6) against the Broncos, and all we're asking for here is four completions a quarter.

The Broncos RB2 will likely get touches in what appears to be a cake walk against a Bolts team resting the starters. With the spread trending toward two TDS, Denver will give some extra love to its reserves and McLaughlin is a shifty back who can hit big plays. He had a season-high seven carries vs Kansas City last week and builds on that in Week 18, including his second score of the season. 

Evan Engram isn’t a throwaway piece in this offense, and while he hasn’t scored since Week 5, this is a strong spot to buy in at a big number given his usage. The Chargers are expected to rest starters, giving Denver a clean path to points. Engram draws targets on 22% of his routes, and while Adam Trautman is logging heavy snaps, it’s largely as a blocker with just one red-zone target all season. Engram saw two red-zone targets last week, caught both, but failed to score. Still a great role at this price.