Los Angeles Chargers

Picks

Houston’s defense is solid overall, but it has shown cracks near the goal line. The Texans rank 23rd in red-zone scoring defense, allowing touchdowns on 60% of trips, a worse rate than both the Jets and Raiders. Omarion Hampton should be heavily involved throughout this game and was leaned on in scoring situations last week. He finished with five red-zone carries, turning them into 25 yards and a touchdown. Kimani Vidal also left last week’s game with a neck injury and was DNP early in the week, which could further concentrate the workload. If Vidal is sidelined or limited, Hampton has a clear path to 20-plus touches with goal-line equity. At that usage, anything around even money or +105 is worth backing.

The Texans have won seven in a row with three of those win coming as underdogs. They lead the league in defensive EPA and ppg allowed (16.6). Their ability to bring pressure off the edge with Danielle Hunter (13 sacks) and Will Anderson (11.5 sacks) will cause problems for L.A., which has struggled in pass protection with both stud tackles on the IR. Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud and this balanced Houston offense should have some success moving the ball against a Chargers defense that looks fraudulent despite not allowing many points in recent weeks. The Bolts rank 22nd in yards allowed per rush (4.4) and also sit in the bottom half of the league in pressure rate.

This battle between the Bolts and Texans will feel like a playoff game and what do we often see in high-stakes showdowns like that: QBs on the run. Herbert has the wheels and is coming off a eight-carry, 42-yard rushing day versus Dallas. Houston can get after the QB and as allowed some bigger rushing days to mobile QBs, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence, Bo Nix – all rushed for 20 yards or more versus the Texans. Yards will be hard to come by for both teams and Herbert will have to pick them up when he can. Some projections sit as high as 27 yards rushing for this Saturday matchup.

These are two capable offenses with experienced quarterbacks, and there are just far too many penalizing flags thrown on defenses week in, week out for the Texans and Chargers to go Under the number in ideal playing conditions at SoFi Stadium. This is a huge matchup for the AFC playoff picture, so I'm not anticipating any quit on either side of the ball from either team, and let's not forget good defense also creates offensive scoring opportunities. Plus, the Bolts have put up an average of 27.8 points while ranking above average in offensive DVOA across their past five home games.