Los Angeles Chargers Picks

Pick made: 8 hours ago

o15.5 -121

o15.5 -130

o15.5 -122

o15.5 -122

The Broncos have allowed 15 or more completions in 12 of 16 games this season, and I'm anticipating Los Angeles to set Lance up for success with short and intermediate throws Sunday afternoon. And, with the Bolts a huge underdog, look for Lance to continue airing it out throughout. Plus, opponents have averaged the sixth-most pass attempts per game (36.6) against the Broncos, and all we're asking for here is four completions a quarter.

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Score a Touchdown

Jaleel McLaughlin Score a Touchdown (Yes: +350)

Best Odds

+525

Pick made: yesterday

+450

+325

+500

+525

+450

The Broncos RB2 will likely get touches in what appears to be a cake walk against a Bolts team resting the starters. With the spread trending toward two TDS, Denver will give some extra love to its reserves and McLaughlin is a shifty back who can hit big plays. He had a season-high seven carries vs Kansas City last week and builds on that in Week 18, including his second score of the season.

Score a Touchdown

Evan Engram Score a Touchdown (Yes: +400)

Best Odds

+400

Pick made: 2 days ago

+360

+400

+390

+380

+390

Evan Engram isn’t a throwaway piece in this offense, and while he hasn’t scored since Week 5, this is a strong spot to buy in at a big number given his usage. The Chargers are expected to rest starters, giving Denver a clean path to points. Engram draws targets on 22% of his routes, and while Adam Trautman is logging heavy snaps, it’s largely as a blocker with just one red-zone target all season. Engram saw two red-zone targets last week, caught both, but failed to score. Still a great role at this price.

Passing Completions

Trey Lance o15.5 Passing Completions (-118)

Projection 18.54 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o15.5 -121

o15.5 -130

o15.5 -122

o15.5 -122

The Los Angeles Chargers will be rolling with backup QB Trey Lance in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. This week's spread indicates an extreme throwing game script for the Chargers, who are huge -12.5-point underdogs.. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chargers to pass on 60.6% of their downs: the 7th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to have 131.6 offensive plays called: the 5th-most among all games this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense this year: 6th-most in football.

-118 at BetMGM

Passing Attempts

Trey Lance o27.5 Passing Attempts (-114)

Projection 33.03 (Over)

Best Odds

o27.5 -114

Pick made: 18 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o28.5 -114

o29.5 -115

o27.5 -114

o29.5 +115

o28.5 -120

-114 at FanDuel

Passing Yards

Trey Lance o168.5 Passing Yards (-105)

Projection 186.34 (Over)

Best Odds

o166.5 -112

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o166.5 -112

o167.5 -110

o167.5 -114

o173.5 -115

o168.5 -105

-112 at DraftKings

Passing Yards

Bo Nix u219.5 Passing Yards (-107)

Projection 210.7 (Under)

Best Odds

u222.5 -110

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u221.5 -112

u222.5 -110

u211.5 -114

u222.5 -115

u219.5 -107

With a 12.5-point advantage, the Broncos are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.. Opposing QBs have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.. This year, the imposing Chargers defense has given up a measly 195.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing quarterbacks: the 5th-best in football.. This year, the stout Los Angeles Chargers defense has surrendered a paltry 65.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 3rd-smallest rate in the NFL.. As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles's safety corps has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in football.

-110 at bet365

Rushing Yards

RJ Harvey o54.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 61.51 (Over)

Best Odds

o54.5 -110

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

o57.5 -109

o54.5 -110

o56.5 -114

o54.5 -118

o56.5 -117

With a 12.5-point advantage, the Broncos are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.. The projections expect the Denver Broncos to call the 5th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.0 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.. The Denver Broncos have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.9 plays per game.

-110 at bet365

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

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63% picking L.A. Chargers

63% 63%

37% 37%

Total Picks LAC 312, DEN 182

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Top User Picks

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'manomanomano551' is picking Denver to cover (-12.0)

manomanomano551 is #1 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (14-2-0) and +7100 units on the season.

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'manomanomano551' picks L.A. Chargers vs Denver to go Under (37.5)

manomanomano551 is #1 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (14-2-0) and +7100 units on the season.

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'skunty4' picks L.A. Chargers vs Denver to go Under (37.5)

skunty4 is #1 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (13-3-0) and +7650 units on the season.

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'skunty4' is picking Denver to cover (-12.0)

skunty4 is #1 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (13-3-0) and +7650 units on the season.

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'd33jay86' picks L.A. Chargers vs Denver to go Over (37.5)

d33jay86 is #2 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (12-3-0) and +6600 units on the season.

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'Ohyarain' picks L.A. Chargers vs Denver to go Under (37.5)

Ohyarain is #2 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (12-4-0) and +6600 units on the season.

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'Ohyarain' is picking Denver to cover (-12.0)

Ohyarain is #2 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (12-4-0) and +6600 units on the season.

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'd33jay86' is picking L.A. Chargers to cover (+12.0)

d33jay86 is #2 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (12-3-0) and +6600 units on the season.

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'lsbellmom' is picking L.A. Chargers to cover (+7.5)

lsbellmom is #3 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (11-5-0) and +6550 units on the season.

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'lsbellmom' picks L.A. Chargers vs Denver to go Under (39.0)

lsbellmom is #3 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (11-5-0) and +6550 units on the season.

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'Kazual12' is picking L.A. Chargers to cover (+7.5)

Kazual12 is #3 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (12-3-0) and +6600 units on the season.

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'Kazual12' picks L.A. Chargers vs Denver to go Under (39.0)

Kazual12 is #3 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (12-3-0) and +6600 units on the season.

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'MLBFan8848' picks L.A. Chargers vs Denver to go Under (37.5)

MLBFan8848 is #5 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (9-7-0) and +5550 units on the season.

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'MLBFan8848' is picking L.A. Chargers to cover (+12.0)

MLBFan8848 is #5 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (9-7-0) and +5550 units on the season.

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DEN

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'plasma9' is picking L.A. Chargers to cover (+12.0)

plasma9 is #7 on picking games that Denver is in with a record of (0-0-0) and +5400 units on the season.

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