Los Angeles Chargers
Picks

2nd in AFC West (11 - 6 - 0)

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LACL.A. Chargers

NENew England

Sun, Jan 11 20:00 ET

LAC @ NE Picks

NFL Picks

Total

u46.5 (-110)

Best Odds

u46.5 -112

Pick made: yesterday

u46.5 -112

u46.0 -110

u45.5 -108

u46.0 -110

u46.0 -107

The cold conditions don’t help put points on the board, but we also have two solid defenses going to work in the Wild Card Round. Los Angeles’ zone-centric schemes have bottled up passing attacks and kept explosive plays at bay, with the Bolts giving up the second fewest receptions of 20 yards or more on the season. That could dull the Patriots’ downfield plans, with QB Drake Maye leading the league's second-most “explosive” air assault. As for New England, it also does a great job holding rival QBs in check. The Patriots rank Top 10 in EPA allowed per play and opponent success rate per dropback, while giving up the eighth fewest receptions of 20+ yards. With both passing games shortened and neither team wanting to press for fear of turnovers, I see both offenses attacking on the ground. That keeps gains shorter and the clock ticking, which is a perfect recipe for Unders.

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Score a Touchdown

TreVeyon Henderson Score a Touchdown (Yes: +140)

Projection 0.55 (Yes)

Best Odds

+140

Pick made: 8 hours ago

EV Model Rating

+135

+115

+140

+120

+136

At the present time, the 8th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (59.1% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the New England Patriots.. The Patriots offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

+140 at FanDuel

Receptions Made

Ladd McConkey o3.5 Receptions Made (-128)

Projection 4.53 (Over)

Best Odds

o3.5 -128

Pick made: 12 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o3.5 -147

o3.5 -130

o3.5 -128

o3.5 -135

o3.5 -150

The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.. The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 2nd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The Chargers have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 60.2 plays per game.

-128 at FanDuel

Passing Yards

Drake Maye u243.5 Passing Yards (-111)

Projection 229.51 (Under)

Best Odds

u243.5 -111

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

u243.5 -111

u240.5 -110

u242.5 -114

u240.5 -115

u242.5 -114

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Patriots are favored this week, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.. Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 55.9% of their downs: the 4th-lowest clip among all teams this week.. The projections expect this game to see the smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

-111 at DraftKings

Interceptions Thrown

Drake Maye u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-110)

Projection 0.38 (Under)

Best Odds

u0.5 -110

Pick made: 5 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 -124

u0.5 -115

u0.5 -120

u0.5 -110

u0.5 -124

-110 at BetMGM

Interceptions Thrown

Justin Herbert u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-105)

Projection 0.44 (Under)

Best Odds

u0.5 -105

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 -112

u0.5 -110

u0.5 -106

u0.5 -105

u0.5 -108

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the significance it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Chargers profiles as the worst in the league this year.

-105 at BetMGM

Receiving Yards

Ladd McConkey o40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 55.26 (Over)

Best Odds

o39.5 -114

Pick made: 12 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o43.5 -110

o40.5 -110

o39.5 -114

o40.5 -115

o40.5 -113

-114 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

TreVeyon Henderson o10.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 15.05 (Over)

Best Odds

o9.5 -115

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o9.5 -115

o10.5 -110

o11.5 -114

o10.5 -110

o9.5 -137

The Patriots offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

-115 at DraftKings

Receiving Yards

Oronde Gadsden o30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 35.59 (Over)

Best Odds

o29.5 -116

Pick made: 10 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o29.5 -116

o30.5 -110

o31.5 -114

o30.5 -118

o31.5 -113

-116 at DraftKings

Rushing Yards

Drake Maye o24.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 31.2 (Over)

Best Odds

o24.5 -110

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o25.5 -112

o24.5 -110

o26.5 -114

o24.5 -160

o26.5 -112

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Patriots are favored this week, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.

-110 at bet365

Rushing Yards

Justin Herbert u30.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 24.84 (Under)

Best Odds

u30.5 -110

Pick made: 8 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u27.5 -109

u30.5 -110

u29.5 -114

u30.5 -115

u29.5 -113

The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to run on 40.4% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

-110 at bet365

Consensus Picks

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Consensus Picks

Top User Picks

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Total

'Kazual12' picks L.A. Chargers vs New England to go Under (46.0)

Kazual12 is #2 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (13-3-0) and +6550 units on the season.

Total

Over

Under

Total

45.5 -121

46.5 -110

Total

'IceHouseSports' picks L.A. Chargers vs New England to go Under (46.0)

IceHouseSports is #6 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (10-6-0) and +6050 units on the season.

Total

Over

Under

Total

45.5 -121

46.5 -110

Total

'blueminer000' picks L.A. Chargers vs New England to go Under (46.0)

blueminer000 is #9 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (9-7-0) and +5500 units on the season.

Total

Over

Under

Total

45.5 -121

46.5 -110

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Los Angeles Chargers Picks

Next Game

LAC @ NE Picks

Consensus Picks

Top User Picks

'Kazual12' picks L.A. Chargers vs New England to go Under (46.0)

'IceHouseSports' picks L.A. Chargers vs New England to go Under (46.0)

'blueminer000' picks L.A. Chargers vs New England to go Under (46.0)

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Los Angeles Chargers
Picks