Los Angeles Chargers Picks
3rd in AFC West
(0 - 0 - 0)
Next Game
Sun, Sep 13
16:25 ET
ARI @ LAC Picks
NFL PicksEV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 4th-most plays in the league last year, totaling a whopping 60.2 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may decline.. With an exceptional rate of 210.0 adjusted passing yards per game (82nd percentile), Justin Herbert ranks among the top quarterbacks in the NFL last year.. The Cardinals defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year: the most in the NFL.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Cardinals have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL last year, averaging a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Chargers are a giant 11.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.. Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers as the 4th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 46.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 4th-most plays in the league last year, totaling a whopping 60.2 plays per game.. With an excellent total of 29.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (95th percentile), Justin Herbert rates among the top rushing quarterbacks in football last year.. The Arizona Cardinals defense has had the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing running games last year, surrendering 5.20 adjusted yards-per-carry.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 4th-most plays in the league last year, totaling a whopping 60.2 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may decline.. While Charlie Kolar has accounted for 3.3% of his offense's targets in games he has played last year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Los Angeles's passing attack in this game at 10.0%.. Last year, the poor Arizona Cardinals defense has allowed a colossal 62.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 4th-most in the league.. Last year, the anemic Arizona Cardinals defense has yielded the most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing TEs: a staggering 0.00 YAC.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 4th-most plays in the league last year, totaling a whopping 60.2 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may decline.. The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has struggled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch last year: the most in football.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
An extreme passing game script is implied by the Cardinals being an enormous -11.5-point underdog this week.. The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.9% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The Cardinals have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL last year, averaging a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.. The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may decline.. Last year, the poor Chargers defense has conceded the most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing running backs: a staggering 0.00 YAC.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 4th-most plays in the league last year, totaling a whopping 60.2 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may decline.. Last year, the shaky Arizona Cardinals defense has yielded the 10th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing running backs: a whopping 6.47 yards.. The Cardinals pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing running backs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch last year: the most in football.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projections forecast the Cardinals to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.1 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.. Opposing teams have averaged 29.2 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense last year: 5th-fewest in football.. Last year, the strong Chargers defense has surrendered a paltry 59.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 3rd-lowest rate in the NFL.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projections forecast the Cardinals to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.1 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.. Opposing teams have averaged 29.2 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense last year: 5th-fewest in football.. Trey McBride ranks as one of the worst tight ends in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year while ranking in the 2nd percentile.. Last year, the strong Chargers defense has given up a meager 39.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 4th-fewest in the NFL.
Consensus Picks
More Consensus
56% picking Arizona
Total Picks ARI 180, LAC 140
Spread
ARI
LAC
ARI @ LAC · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
J. Herbert
(QB)
o224.5 Passing Yards
243.63 OVER
PROJECTION
+19.1
DIFFERENCE
21.77%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
J. Brissett
(QB)
o8.5 Rushing Yards
16.00 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.5
DIFFERENCE
26.22%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
J. Love
(RB)
o34.5 Rushing Yards
48.83 OVER
PROJECTION
+14.3
DIFFERENCE
26.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
J. Herbert
(QB)
o19.5 Rushing Yards
27.42 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.9
DIFFERENCE
25.63%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
O. Hampton
(RB)
u66.5 Rushing Yards
64.47 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.0
DIFFERENCE
11.54%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
C. Kolar
(TE)
o16.5 Receiving Yards
27.15 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.7
DIFFERENCE
25.88%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
L. McConkey
(WR)
o50.5 Receiving Yards
62.17 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.7
DIFFERENCE
25.23%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
J. Love
(RB)
o12.5 Receiving Yards
17.96 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.5
DIFFERENCE
25.01%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
O. Hampton
(RB)
o14.5 Receiving Yards
20.92 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.4
DIFFERENCE
21.36%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
M. Harrison Jr.
(WR)
u49.5 Receiving Yards
45.28 UNDER
PROJECTION
-4.2
DIFFERENCE
20.38%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
T. McBride
(TE)
u59.5 Receiving Yards
55.15 UNDER
PROJECTION
-4.3
DIFFERENCE
19.81%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
M. Harrison Jr.
(WR)
u3.5 Receptions Made
3.20 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
19.53%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
O. Hampton
(RB)
o2.5 Receptions Made
2.90 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
13.59%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
T. McBride
(TE)
u6.5 Receptions Made
5.63 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.9
DIFFERENCE
11.82%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
C. Kolar
(TE)
o1.5 Receptions Made
2.28 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
5.1%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
L. McConkey
(WR)
o4.5 Receptions Made
4.84 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
4.76%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
J. Love
(RB)
u2.5 Receptions Made
2.30 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-4.98%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
J. Herbert
(QB)
o4.5 Rushing Attempts
5.28 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
3.78%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
J. Herbert
(QB)
o27.5 Passing Attempts
29.43 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.9
DIFFERENCE
11.71%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
J. Brissett
(QB)
u33.5 Passing Attempts
33.25 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
3.46%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
J. Herbert
(QB)
o20.5 Passing Completions
21.20 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
3.97%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
J. Brissett
(QB)
u21.5 Passing Completions
20.15 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.3
DIFFERENCE
1.75%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
C. Kolar
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.22 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
24.13%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
L. McConkey
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.44 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
13.45%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
T. McBride
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.37 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
13.26%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Brissett
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.07 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-7.84%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Love
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.29 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-13.05%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Herbert
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.14 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-18.25%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
PASSING YARDS
J. Herbert
(QB)
o224.5 Passing Yards
243.63 OVER
PROJECTION
+19.1
DIFFERENCE
21.77%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
J. Brissett
(QB)
o8.5 Rushing Yards
16.00 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.5
DIFFERENCE
26.22%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
J. Love
(RB)
o34.5 Rushing Yards
48.83 OVER
PROJECTION
+14.3
DIFFERENCE
26.19%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
J. Herbert
(QB)
o19.5 Rushing Yards
27.42 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.9
DIFFERENCE
25.63%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
O. Hampton
(RB)
u66.5 Rushing Yards
64.47 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.0
DIFFERENCE
11.54%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
C. Kolar
(TE)
o16.5 Receiving Yards
27.15 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.7
DIFFERENCE
25.88%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
L. McConkey
(WR)
o50.5 Receiving Yards
62.17 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.7
DIFFERENCE
25.23%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
J. Love
(RB)
o12.5 Receiving Yards
17.96 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.5
DIFFERENCE
25.01%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
O. Hampton
(RB)
o14.5 Receiving Yards
20.92 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.4
DIFFERENCE
21.36%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
M. Harrison Jr.
(WR)
u49.5 Receiving Yards
45.28 UNDER
PROJECTION
-4.2
DIFFERENCE
20.38%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
T. McBride
(TE)
u59.5 Receiving Yards
55.15 UNDER
PROJECTION
-4.3
DIFFERENCE
19.81%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
M. Harrison Jr.
(WR)
u3.5 Receptions Made
3.20 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
19.53%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
O. Hampton
(RB)
o2.5 Receptions Made
2.90 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
13.59%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
T. McBride
(TE)
u6.5 Receptions Made
5.63 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.9
DIFFERENCE
11.82%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
C. Kolar
(TE)
o1.5 Receptions Made
2.28 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
5.1%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
L. McConkey
(WR)
o4.5 Receptions Made
4.84 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
4.76%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
J. Love
(RB)
u2.5 Receptions Made
2.30 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-4.98%
EV
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
J. Herbert
(QB)
o4.5 Rushing Attempts
5.28 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
3.78%
EV
PASSING ATTEMPTS
J. Herbert
(QB)
o27.5 Passing Attempts
29.43 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.9
DIFFERENCE
11.71%
EV
PASSING ATTEMPTS
J. Brissett
(QB)
u33.5 Passing Attempts
33.25 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
3.46%
EV
PASSING COMPLETIONS
J. Herbert
(QB)
o20.5 Passing Completions
21.20 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
3.97%
EV
PASSING COMPLETIONS
J. Brissett
(QB)
u21.5 Passing Completions
20.15 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.3
DIFFERENCE
1.75%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
C. Kolar
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.22 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
24.13%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
L. McConkey
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.44 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
13.45%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
T. McBride
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.37 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
13.26%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Brissett
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.07 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-7.84%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Love
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.29 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-13.05%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Herbert
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.14 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-18.25%
EV
ARI @ LAC · Trends
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|---|---|---|---|
| All Chargers Money Leaders | |||