Los Angeles Chargers

Picks

The Chargers have consecutive outright wins as an underdog, while the Cowboys have lost outright in back-to-back games as a favorite. Los Angeles has also won six of seven to improve to 10-4 for the campaign, while Dallas is all but officially eliminated from the postseason at 6-7-1. Additionally, just when it looked like the Dallas defense might be turning the corner, the Cowboys have given up 78 points while allowing the fourth-highest EPA per play the past two weeks. Dallas now sits 30th in defensive DVOA while allowing the third-highest EPA per play and second-most points per game (30.0).

After collecting 37 or more receiving yards in nine of the first 11 games of the season, Allen has been held below the benchmark in three straight with 12 receptions on 15 targets for 88 total yards. This is a bounce-back spot for the spry veteran, though. The Cowboys have surrendered the fourth-highest catch percentage to opposing wide receivers for the seventh-highest yards per target while allowing the fourth-highest EPA per dropback and ranking 30th in pass defense DVOA.

Malik Davis handled one of his larger workloads last week with eight carries and three targets. The production was modest, but he found the end zone after getting two carries inside the 10. That usage may not have been accidental. Javonte Williams left banged up and also scored his 10th touchdown, which triggered a performance bonus. He’s on a one-year deal and may not be eager to push through an injury with the team sitting at roughly a one-percent playoff chance. That opens the door for Davis to get an extended look down the stretch. At +375, even a repeat of last week’s volume is attractive. If he continues to see red-zone work and approaches double-digit carries, the price is too good to ignore.

The past few weeks, L.A. has found another gear. The Chargers aren’t just making it tough to move the chains, they’re making it dangerous. They’ve recorded 11 sacks, seven interceptions, and forced three fumbles (recovering one of those loose balls) during their three-game winning streak. The Bolts are a Top 5 passing defense and their zone-centric schemes don’t allow anything deep, checking rival QBs to the fewest total air yards and allowing the fourth lowest completion rate in the land. Dallas’ offense is reliant on over-the-top shots, especially with the way the Cowboys’ defense hemorrhages yards and often has this team involved in shootouts. The Cowboys are a Bottom 5 pass defense no matter how the advanced metrics slice it.