New Orleans Saints
Picks

4th in NFC South (6 - 10 - 0)

Next Game

NONew Orleans

ATLAtlanta

Sun, Jan 4 13:00 ET

NO @ ATL Picks

NFL Picks

Score a Touchdown

Chris Olave Score a Touchdown (Yes: +150)

Best Odds

+155

Pick made: 11 hours ago

+155

+150

+135

+150

It’s a shorter number than I typically like on a WR1, but the context makes it workable. Tyler Shough is in the Rookie of the Year conversation and could be asked to throw more than usual on Sunday. Chris Olave even mentioned after the Week 17 win that he’s actively trying to help his quarterback chase the award. Olave delivered again last week with 11 targets, 119 yards, and a touchdown, and he’s accounted for two of the Saints’ three wide receiver red-zone targets. With New Orleans still shorthanded at running back and leaning into the passing game, the volume should remain there. At +150, this isn’t a typical WR1 price I’d play, but given the motivation and matchup, it’s one I’m comfortable backing to +130.

Spread

NO +3.0 (-110)

Best Odds

+3.0 +100

Pick made: yesterday

+3.0 -102

+3.0 +100

+3.0 -105

+3.5 -118

+3.0 -107

The Saints have won four in a row while the 7-9 Falcons are on a short week after playing on Monday night. The Falcons are 23rd in the league in defensive success rate, while the offense has been one-dimensional with Kirk Cousins throwing for fewer than 200 yards in five of seven starts. The Saints are ninth in defensive success rate, while Tyler Shough has been getting better every week and could earn the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award with another strong performance. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these NFC South rivals, so give me the points with New Orleans.

Receptions Made

Kyle Pitts Sr. o4.5 Receptions Made (-113)

Projection 5.73 (Over)

Best Odds

o4.5 -113

Pick made: 5 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o4.5 -113

o4.5 -114

o4.5 -115

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have 137.1 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. Kyle Pitts has gone out for fewer passes this year (91.5% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (75.7%).. In this contest, Kyle Pitts is anticipated by the model to position himself in the 99th percentile among TEs with 8.3 targets.. Kyle Pitts's pass-catching performance been refined this year, totaling 4.5 adjusted catches vs just 2.7 last year.

-113 at DraftKings

Passing Completions

Kirk Cousins o20.5 Passing Completions (+104)

Projection 22.59 (Over)

Best Odds

o19.5 -130

Pick made: 10 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o19.5 -131

o19.5 -130

o20.5 +104

o19.5 -140

o19.5 -136

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have 137.1 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. The leading projections forecast Kirk Cousins to attempt 35.7 passes this week, on average: the 6th-most among all quarterbacks.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Falcons profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year.

-130 at bet365

Passing Completions

Tyler Shough u21.5 Passing Completions (-104)

Projection 19.61 (Under)

Best Odds

u21.5 -104

Pick made: 10 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u21.5 -119

u20.5 -110

u21.5 -104

u20.5 -105

u21.5 -121

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Falcons, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 31.9 per game) this year.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-lowest clip in the league against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year (67.1% Adjusted Completion%).

-104 at FanDuel

Passing Attempts

Kirk Cousins o31.5 Passing Attempts (-105)

Projection 33.8 (Over)

Best Odds

o31.5 -105

Pick made: 10 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o31.5 -111

o31.5 -105

o31.5 -120

o31.5 -105

o31.5 -114

-105 at bet365

Passing Yards

Kirk Cousins o220.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Projection 257.68 (Over)

Best Odds

o214.5 -114

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

o219.5 -112

o220.5 -110

o214.5 -114

o220.5 -115

o218.5 -117

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have 137.1 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. The leading projections forecast Kirk Cousins to attempt 35.7 passes this week, on average: the 6th-most among all quarterbacks.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Falcons profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year.

-114 at FanDuel

Passing Yards

Tyler Shough u232.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Projection 214.42 (Under)

Best Odds

u239.5 -114

Pick made: 10 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u238.5 -111

u232.5 -110

u239.5 -114

u232.5 -115

u237.5 -112

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Falcons, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 31.9 per game) this year.. This year, the tough Falcons defense has conceded a mere 211.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing QBs: the 10th-fewest in football.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-lowest clip in the league against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year (67.1% Adjusted Completion%).

-114 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

Kyle Pitts Sr. o47.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 64.02 (Over)

Best Odds

o46.5 -114

Pick made: 5 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o46.5 -115

o47.5 -110

o46.5 -114

o47.5 -110

o46.5 -115

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have 137.1 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. Kyle Pitts has gone out for fewer passes this year (91.5% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (75.7%).. In this contest, Kyle Pitts is anticipated by the model to position himself in the 99th percentile among TEs with 8.3 targets.. After totaling 36.0 air yards per game last season, Kyle Pitts has produced significantly more this season, currently averaging 51.0 per game.

-114 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

Drake London o67.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 82.71 (Over)

Best Odds

o59.5 -114

Pick made: 6 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o64.5 -113

o67.5 -110

o59.5 -114

o69.5 -115

o62.5 -114

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have 137.1 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. The predictive model expects Drake London to accrue 9.6 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 95th percentile among WRs.. Drake London has been a key part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 30.2% this year, which ranks in the 96th percentile when it comes to wideouts.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Falcons profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year.

-114 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

Juwan Johnson u52.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 42.88 (Under)

Best Odds

u52.5 -110

Pick made: 11 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u48.5 -112

u52.5 -110

u47.5 -114

u52.5 -115

u48.5 -113

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Falcons, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 31.9 per game) this year.. Juwan Johnson's ability to generate extra yardage has worsened this year, notching a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 3.88 rate last year.. The Falcons defense has conceded the 7th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 43.0) to TEs this year.. This year, the tough Falcons defense has given up a meager 70.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 5th-lowest rate in the NFL.. As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Atlanta's collection of safeties has been great this year, ranking as the 8th-best in the NFL.

-110 at bet365

Receiving Yards

Chris Olave o68.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Projection 79.86 (Over)

Best Odds

o67.5 -114

Pick made: 5 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o67.5 -114

o68.5 -110

o67.5 -114

o68.5 -115

o67.5 -117

Our trusted projections expect the Saints offensive strategy to skew 1.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context) with head coach Kellen Moore now calling the plays.. At a -3-point disadvantage, the Saints are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their typical approach.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to see 137.1 offensive plays run: the most among all games this week.. The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 59.2 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.

-114 at DraftKings

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Spread

62% picking Atlanta

38% 38%

62% 62%

Total Picks NO 147, ATL 236

Spread

ATL

Spread

+3.5 -124

-3.0 -114

Total

67% picking New Orleans vs Atlanta to go Over

67% 67%

33% 33%

Total PicksNO 150, ATL 73

Total

Over

Under

Total

Total

Pages Related to This Topic

Top New Orleans Pick Leaders Season 2025-2026

Rank	Leader	L10	Units

News & Analysis

More News

NFL Moneyline Picks for Every Week 18 Game

NFL TD Props: The Best Touchdown Scorer Bets for Week 18

NFL Week 18 AI Picks: Spread, Moneyline & Total Predictions

New Orleans Saints Picks

Next Game

NO @ ATL Picks

Consensus Picks

62% picking Atlanta

67% picking New Orleans vs Atlanta to go Over

Top User Picks

'rquiroz' is picking Atlanta to cover (-3.0)

'plasma9' is picking New Orleans to cover (+3.0)

'unbelievable21' is picking New Orleans to cover (+2.5)

'jerrygora' is picking New Orleans to cover (+3.0)

'mafioso' is picking Atlanta to cover (-2.5)

'mafioso' picks New Orleans vs Atlanta to go Over (43.5)

Pages Related to This Topic

New Orleans Saints
Picks