New Orleans Saints
Picks

4th in NFC South (0 - 2 - 0)

Next Game

NONew Orleans

SEASeattle

Sun, Sep 21 16:05 ET

NO @ SEA Picks

NFL Picks

Spread

SEA -7.0 (-122)

Best Odds

-7.5 -105

Pick made: yesterday

-7.5 -110

-7.5 -105

-7.5 -110

-7.5 -106

The Seahawks just beat a solid Steelers team by 14 points, and the Saints do not pose a threat amid their 0-2 start.

Total

u41.5 (-105)

Best Odds

u42.0 -118

Pick made: yesterday

u41.5 -110

u41.5 -115

u42.0 -118

u41.5 -110

Seattle's defense is playing well and won't be tested much by the Saints' lackluster offense. The Hawks will put up points, but they won't allow Spencer Rattler to generate much offense.

Passing Touchdowns

Sam Darnold u1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-147)

Projection 0.8 (Under)

Best Odds

u1.5 -147

Pick made: 16 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u1.5 -147

u1.5 -155

u1.5 -152

The Seahawks feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 6.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).. An extreme running game script is indicated by the Seahawks being a massive 7.5-point favorite in this week's game.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Seahawks to pass on 50.6% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.. The 8th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Seattle Seahawks since the start of last season (only 55.9 per game on average).. The leading projections forecast Sam Darnold to attempt 32.7 passes in this contest, on average: the 11th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.

-147 at DraftKings

Passing Yards

Spencer Rattler u206.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Projection 194 (Under)

Best Odds

u206.5 -115

Pick made: 5 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u200.5 -111

u206.5 -115

u203.5 -115

At the moment, the 10th-least pass-heavy team in the league (59.6% in a neutral context) according to the model is the New Orleans Saints.. The New Orleans Saints have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to lead to lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions this week.. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Saints ranks as the worst in the league since the start of last season.. Opposing QBs have passed for the 5th-fewest yards in the NFL (just 204.0 adjusted yards per game) versus the Seahawks defense since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the daunting Seattle Seahawks defense has conceded the 5th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing offenses: a meager 7.2 yards.

-115 at BetMGM

Receiving Yards

Kenneth Walker III o9.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

Projection 14.4 (Over)

Best Odds

o9.5 -118

Pick made: 6 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o10.5 -110

o9.5 -118

o9.5 -120

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the model to have 138.6 offensive plays called: the most out of all the games this week.. Opposing offenses have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.. With a fantastic 26.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (93rd percentile) since the start of last season, Kenneth Walker III places as one of the leading RBs in the pass game in the league.. Kenneth Walker III has been one of the best possession receivers in the league when it comes to running backs, completing an outstanding 89.6% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 77th percentile.

-118 at BetMGM

Receiving Yards

Jaxon Smith-Njigba o71.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

Projection 76 (Over)

Best Odds

o69.5 -111

Pick made: 8 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o69.5 -111

o71.5 -118

o69.5 -116

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the model to have 138.6 offensive plays called: the most out of all the games this week.. Opposing offenses have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.. The projections expect Jaxon Smith-Njigba to earn 9.9 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 98th percentile when it comes to WRs.. The projections expect Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be much more involved in his team's passing game in this contest (31.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (26.0% in games he has played).. As it relates to air yards, Jaxon Smith-Njigba grades out in the lofty 87th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, totaling a remarkable 79.0 per game.

-111 at DraftKings

Rushing Yards

Spencer Rattler o13.5 Rushing Yards (-118)

Projection 22.2 (Over)

Best Odds

o13.5 -118

Pick made: 10 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o15.5 -108

o13.5 -118

o14.5 -120

-118 at BetMGM

Rushing Yards

Kenneth Walker III o53.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Projection 64.4 (Over)

Best Odds

o52.5 -114

Pick made: 15 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o52.5 -114

o53.5 -115

The Seahawks feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 6.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).. An extreme running game script is indicated by the Seahawks being a massive 7.5-point favorite in this week's game.. The projections expect the Seahawks as the 3rd-most run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 49.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Kenneth Walker III has averaged 52.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in football when it comes to running backs (78th percentile).. The New Orleans Saints defense has produced the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, giving up 5.01 adjusted yards-per-carry.

-114 at DraftKings

Rushing Yards

Alvin Kamara o52.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Projection 62.3 (Over)

Best Odds

o52.5 -115

Pick made: 5 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o55.5 -110

o52.5 -115

o54.5 -115

The leading projections forecast the Saints to be the 10th-most run-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 40.4% run rate.. The predictive model expects this game to have the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 138.6 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The New Orleans Saints have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to lead to lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions this week.. The leading projections forecast Alvin Kamara to garner 16.2 carries in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile when it comes to running backs.. With an outstanding rate of 65.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (89th percentile), Alvin Kamara has been among the top pure rushers in the NFL since the start of last season.

-115 at BetMGM

Rushing Yards

Sam Darnold o9.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 12.7 (Over)

Best Odds

o9.5 -110

Pick made: 6 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o9.5 -114

o9.5 -110

o9.5 -115

The Seahawks feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 6.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).. An extreme running game script is indicated by the Seahawks being a massive 7.5-point favorite in this week's game.. The projections expect the Seahawks as the 3rd-most run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 49.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the model to have 138.6 offensive plays called: the most out of all the games this week.. The New Orleans Saints defense has produced the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, giving up 5.01 adjusted yards-per-carry.

-110 at BetMGM

Consensus Picks

View all Consensus Picks

Spread

72% picking Seattle

28% 28%

72% 72%

Total Picks NO 217, SEA 560

Spread

SEA

Spread

+7.5 -108

-7.0 -110

Total

41.5 +100

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New Orleans Saints Picks

Next Game

NO @ SEA Picks

Consensus Picks

72% picking Seattle

Top User Picks

'Schutz' picks New Orleans vs Seattle to go Under (41.5)

'Schutz' is picking Seattle to cover (-7.5)

'DBM' is picking New Orleans to cover (+6.5)

'DBM' picks New Orleans vs Seattle to go Over (41.5)

'cowboybob56' picks New Orleans vs Seattle to go Over (41.5)

'cowboybob56' is picking Seattle to cover (-6.5)

'willyums12' picks New Orleans vs Seattle to go Over (42.5)

'willyums12' is picking Seattle to cover (-7.5)

'fishercz' is picking Seattle to cover (-6.5)

'fishercz' picks New Orleans vs Seattle to go Under (41.5)

'Hesonfie24' picks New Orleans vs Seattle to go Over (42.5)

'Hesonfie24' is picking Seattle to cover (-7.5)

'reekosuave' picks New Orleans vs Seattle to go Over (42.5)

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New Orleans Saints
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