New Orleans Saints

4th in NFC South (2 - 9 - 0)

Next Game

NONew Orleans New Orleans
at
Miami MIAMiami
Sun, Nov 30 13:00 ET

NO @ MIA Picks

NFL Picks
Score a Touchdown
DN Devin Neal Score a Touchdown (Yes: +275)
Best Odds
 +290 FanDuel
Pick made: an hour ago
Josh Inglis image
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
 +275
 +220
 +290
 -
 +240

I’m taking on a bit of risk with Devin Neal, who’s been limited in practice, but with Alvin Kamara missing Wednesday’s session and Neal playing 86% of the snaps after Kamara exited last week, Neal could function as an RB1 at an RB2 price. If Kamara sits, this TD number could close around +150 to +160. If Kamara plays, it probably drifts to +400 or higher. Taysom Hill is always a threat to steal a score, but his price is too short to justify. Miami isn’t an intimidating matchup this late in the season in Miami, making Neal worth the early grab.

Passing Completions
Tyler Shough logo
Tyler Shough u20.5 Passing Completions (-102)
Projection 18.02 (Under)
Best Odds
u20.5 -102 FanDuel
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
u20.5  -103
 -
u20.5  -102
u20.5  -125
u20.5  -111
The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to be the 10th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Dolphins, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 30.0 per game) this year.
-102 at FanDuel
Passing Attempts
Tyler Shough logo
Tyler Shough u32.5 Passing Attempts (-105)
Projection 30.43 (Under)
Best Odds
u32.5 -105 BetMGM
Pick made: 6 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u32.5  -121
 -
u32.5  -115
u32.5  -105
u32.5  -112
The model projects the Saints to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 56.6% pass rate.. Based on the game dynamics and approaches of each team, the projections expect this game (with an average of 26.56 seconds per play) will play at the 11th-worst pace among all games this week.. Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Dolphins, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 30.0 per game) this year.
-105 at BetMGM
Passing Yards
Tyler Shough logo
Tyler Shough u217.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Projection 188.03 (Under)
Best Odds
u217.5 -113 DraftKings
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
u217.5  -113
 -
u216.5  -114
u215.5  -115
u216.5  -114
The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to be the 10th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Dolphins, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 30.0 per game) this year.
-113 at DraftKings
Passing Yards
Tua Tagovailoa logo
Tua Tagovailoa o212.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Projection 242.32 (Over)
Best Odds
o212.5 -112 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 11 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o212.5  -112
These are quick bet odds
 -
o213.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o223.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o213.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 7th-highest clip in the NFL vs. the Saints defense this year (73.7% Adjusted Completion%).. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, New Orleans's collection of safeties has been awful this year, grading out as the 10th-worst in the NFL.
-112 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Interceptions Thrown
Tyler Shough logo
Tyler Shough u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+115)
Projection 0.38 (Under)
Best Odds
u0.5 +115 BetMGM
Pick made: 6 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u0.5  -103
 -
u0.5  +100
u0.5  +115
u0.5  -103
The model projects the Saints to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 56.6% pass rate.. Based on the game dynamics and approaches of each team, the projections expect this game (with an average of 26.56 seconds per play) will play at the 11th-worst pace among all games this week.. Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Dolphins, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 30.0 per game) this year.
+115 at BetMGM
Receiving Yards
De'Von Achane logo
De'Von Achane o34.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Projection 42.07 (Over)
Best Odds
o34.5 -112 Caesars
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o34.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
 -
o34.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o38.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
o34.5  -112
These are quick bet odds
De'Von Achane has been more involved as a potential target this season (74.6% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (61.2%).. In this week's contest, De'Von Achane is predicted by the projections to find himself in the 100th percentile among running backs with 7.5 targets.. De'Von Achane has accrued a whopping 3.0 air yards per game this year: 91st percentile when it comes to RBs. (This may not seem like a lot, but most RBs average negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. With an impressive 32.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (97th percentile) this year, De'Von Achane rates as one of the top pass-catching running backs in the NFL.. This year, the anemic New Orleans Saints pass defense has been torched for a monstrous 90.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the worst rate in the league.
-112 at Caesars
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Juwan Johnson logo
Juwan Johnson u43.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 37.94 (Under)
Best Odds
u44.5 -110 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 6 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u44.5  -112
These are quick bet odds
 -
u43.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
u44.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
u43.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to be the 10th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Dolphins, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 30.0 per game) this year.. Juwan Johnson's receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 76.7% to 72.9%.. Juwan Johnson's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year illustrates a remarkable reduction in his effectiveness in space over last year's 3.9% figure.
-110 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Chris Olave logo
Chris Olave u70.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Projection 66.26 (Under)
Best Odds
u72.5 -113 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
u72.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
 -
u71.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
u68.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
u70.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to be the 10th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Dolphins, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 30.0 per game) this year.. Chris Olave's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 73.7% to 65.6%.. Chris Olave's 6.5 adjusted yards per target this year indicates an impressive diminishment in his receiving proficiency over last year's 10.0 mark.. Chris Olave's skills in picking up extra yardage have declined this season, accumulating just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 3.50 figure last season.
-113 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Rushing Yards
DN
Devin Neal o32.5 Rushing Yards (-118)
Projection 56.53 (Over)
Best Odds
o32.5 -118 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 6 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 -
 -
 -
o32.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
 -
Right now, the 2nd-most run-focused offense in the league (43.4% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the New Orleans Saints.. The Saints have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 59.5 plays per game.. This year, the deficient Miami Dolphins run defense has surrendered a staggering 145.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 4th-most in the NFL.
-118 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Rushing Yards
De'Von Achane logo
De'Von Achane o78.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Projection 84.91 (Over)
Best Odds
o78.5 -114 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
o80.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
 -
o78.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o78.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o79.5  -117
These are quick bet odds
This week's line suggests a rushing game script for the Dolphins, who are favored by 5.5 points.. The projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 10th-most run-focused offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 40.6% run rate.. The predictive model expects De'Von Achane to total 19.1 carries in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs.. De'Von Achane has been a more integral piece of his offense's run game this season (66.1% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (46.4%).. De'Von Achane's 68.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year indicates an impressive progression in his running ability over last year's 50.0 mark.
-114 at FanDuel
These are quick bet odds

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Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.
Spread

74% picking Miami

26%
74%

Total Picks NO 149, MIA 433

Spread
NO
MIA
Spread
+5.5 -103
-4.5 -139

Top User Picks

More Picks

User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.
Spread

'spiveytexas61' is picking Miami to cover (-4.5)

spiveytexas61 is #10 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (6-4-1) and +4200 units on the season.

Spread
NO
MIA
Spread
+5.5 -103
-4.5 -139
Total

'spiveytexas61' picks New Orleans vs Miami to go Under (43.0)

spiveytexas61 is #10 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (6-4-1) and +4200 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.5 -107
41.5 -104
Total

'1003008gl' picks New Orleans vs Miami to go Over (43.0)

1003008gl is #2 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (10-1-0) and +5750 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.5 -107
41.5 -104
Spread

'1003008gl' is picking Miami to cover (-4.5)

1003008gl is #2 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (10-1-0) and +5750 units on the season.

Spread
NO
MIA
Spread
+5.5 -103
-4.5 -139
Total

'Manning2008SB' picks New Orleans vs Miami to go Over (41.5)

Manning2008SB is #3 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +5750 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.5 -107
41.5 -104
Total

'Sabster611' picks New Orleans vs Miami to go Under (41.5)

Sabster611 is #3 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (9-2-0) and +5750 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.5 -107
41.5 -104
Spread

'Sabster611' is picking Miami to cover (-6.0)

Sabster611 is #3 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (9-2-0) and +5750 units on the season.

Spread
NO
MIA
Spread
+5.5 -103
-4.5 -139
Spread

'Manning2008SB' is picking Miami to cover (-6.0)

Manning2008SB is #3 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +5750 units on the season.

Spread
NO
MIA
Spread
+5.5 -103
-4.5 -139
Total

'BetoCM' picks New Orleans vs Miami to go Under (41.5)

BetoCM is #4 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +4900 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.5 -107
41.5 -104
Spread

'BetoCM' is picking Miami to cover (-6.0)

BetoCM is #4 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +4900 units on the season.

Spread
NO
MIA
Spread
+5.5 -103
-4.5 -139
Spread

'jerrygora' is picking Miami to cover (-6.0)

jerrygora is #4 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (6-0-1) and +5350 units on the season.

Spread
NO
MIA
Spread
+5.5 -103
-4.5 -139
Total

'sharkblue' picks New Orleans vs Miami to go Over (41.5)

sharkblue is #5 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (7-4-0) and +4700 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.5 -107
41.5 -104
Spread

'sharkblue' is picking Miami to cover (-5.5)

sharkblue is #5 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (7-4-0) and +4700 units on the season.

Spread
NO
MIA
Spread
+5.5 -103
-4.5 -139
Spread

'adamort22' is picking Miami to cover (-4.5)

adamort22 is #6 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (7-4-0) and +4700 units on the season.

Spread
NO
MIA
Spread
+5.5 -103
-4.5 -139
Total

'adamort22' picks New Orleans vs Miami to go Over (41.5)

adamort22 is #6 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (7-4-0) and +4700 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.5 -107
41.5 -104
Total

'TwoDrunk2Bunt' picks New Orleans vs Miami to go Under (41.5)

TwoDrunk2Bunt is #6 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (6-2-1) and +5300 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.5 -107
41.5 -104
Spread

'TwoDrunk2Bunt' is picking New Orleans to cover (+6.0)

TwoDrunk2Bunt is #6 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (6-2-1) and +5300 units on the season.

Spread
NO
MIA
Spread
+5.5 -103
-4.5 -139
Total

'BigG39' picks New Orleans vs Miami to go Over (41.5)

BigG39 is #8 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (9-1-1) and +5050 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.5 -107
41.5 -104
Spread

'BigG39' is picking Miami to cover (-6.0)

BigG39 is #8 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (9-1-1) and +5050 units on the season.

Spread
NO
MIA
Spread
+5.5 -103
-4.5 -139
Spread

'deweyay9' is picking New Orleans to cover (+4.5)

deweyay9 is #9 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4250 units on the season.

Spread
NO
MIA
Spread
+5.5 -103
-4.5 -139
Total

'deweyay9' picks New Orleans vs Miami to go Over (43.0)

deweyay9 is #9 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4250 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.5 -107
41.5 -104

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