New Orleans Saints

4th in NFC South (2 - 9 - 0)

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NONew Orleans New Orleans
at
Miami MIAMiami
Sun, Nov 30 13:00 ET

NO @ MIA Picks

NFL Picks
Rushing Yards
De'Von Achane logo De'Von Achane o78.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Best Odds
o78.5 -114 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 18 hours ago
Ryan Gilbert image
Ryan Gilbert
Betting Analyst
o80.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
 -
o78.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o81.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o79.5  -117
These are quick bet odds

Miami Dolphins running back De’Von Achane has been getting better as the season moves along, and he’s coming off his two best games of the year.

He ran for two touchdowns and 174 yards on 22 carries against the Bills before the bye, and 120 yards on 21 carries last week against the Commanders.

The New Orleans Saints have allowed 123.5 rushing yards per game this season, and 80 isn't too much to ask for from Achane. 

Read Full Analysis
Score a Touchdown
DN Devin Neal Score a Touchdown (Yes: +275)
Best Odds
 +290 FanDuel
Pick made: yesterday
Josh Inglis image
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
 +225
 +220
 +290
 -
 +220

I’m taking on a bit of risk with Devin Neal, who’s been limited in practice, but with Alvin Kamara missing Wednesday’s session and Neal playing 86% of the snaps after Kamara exited last week, Neal could function as an RB1 at an RB2 price. If Kamara sits, this TD number could close around +150 to +160. If Kamara plays, it probably drifts to +400 or higher. Taysom Hill is always a threat to steal a score, but his price is too short to justify. Miami isn’t an intimidating matchup this late in the season in Miami, making Neal worth the early grab.

Score a Touchdown
De'Von Achane logo
De'Von Achane Score a Touchdown (Yes: -159)
Projection 0.85 (Yes)
Best Odds
 -159 Caesars
Pick made: 3 days ago
EV Model Rating
 -165
 -160
 -160
 -
 -159
De'Von Achane has been a key part of his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 19.6% this year, which ranks him in the 97th percentile among running backs.. De'Von Achane has accrued a whopping 3.0 air yards per game this year: 91st percentile when it comes to RBs. (This may not seem like a lot, but most RBs average negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. De'Von Achane's 35.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 22.4.. With an outstanding rate of 0.33 per game through the air (98th percentile), De'Von Achane has been among the top receiving touchdown-scorers in football among RBs this year.. This year, the anemic New Orleans Saints pass defense has been torched for a monstrous 90.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the worst rate in the league.
-159 at Caesars
Score a Touchdown
Chris Olave logo
Chris Olave Score a Touchdown (Yes: +205)
Projection 0.42 (Yes)
Best Odds
 +205 DraftKings
Pick made: 17 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 +205
 +175
 +195
 -
 +205
The Saints are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.. The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints offense to be the fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 25.62 seconds per play.. While Chris Olave has earned 25.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in New Orleans's passing offense near the goal line in this week's contest at 31.9%.. Chris Olave has notched quite a few more air yards this season (111.0 per game) than he did last season (57.0 per game).. Chris Olave's 69.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 45.5.
+205 at DraftKings
Receptions Made
Juwan Johnson logo
Juwan Johnson u4.5 Receptions Made (-105)
Projection 3.6 (Under)
Best Odds
u4.5 -105 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 22 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u4.5  -150
These are quick bet odds
 -
u4.5  -152
These are quick bet odds
u4.5  -105
These are quick bet odds
u4.5  -145
These are quick bet odds
The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Dolphins, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 30.0 per game) this year.. Juwan Johnson's receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 76.7% to 72.9%.
-105 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Passing Touchdowns
Tua Tagovailoa logo
Tua Tagovailoa u1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+112)
Projection 1.36 (Under)
Best Odds
u1.5 +112 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 2 days ago
EV Model Rating
u1.5  +112
These are quick bet odds
 -
u1.5  +112
These are quick bet odds
u1.5  +100
These are quick bet odds
u1.5  +108
These are quick bet odds
This week's line suggests a rushing game script for the Dolphins, who are favored by 5.5 points.. At the present time, the 10th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (59.4% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Miami Dolphins.. At the present time, the most sluggish paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Dolphins.. Opposing teams teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Saints, averaging the fewest attempts in football (a lowly 28.6 per game) this year.. Tua Tagovailoa's passing precision has tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 73.5% to 68.2%.
+112 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Passing Completions
Tyler Shough logo
Tyler Shough u20.5 Passing Completions (-103)
Projection 17.95 (Under)
Best Odds
u20.5 -103 DraftKings
Pick made: 2 days ago
EV Model Rating
u20.5  -103
 -
u20.5  -108
u20.5  -110
u20.5  -118
The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Dolphins, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 30.0 per game) this year.
-103 at DraftKings
Passing Attempts
Tyler Shough logo
Tyler Shough u33.5 Passing Attempts (-110)
Projection 30.41 (Under)
Best Odds
u33.5 -110 BetMGM
Pick made: 8 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u32.5  -112
 -
u32.5  -125
u33.5  -110
u32.5  -115
The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Dolphins, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 30.0 per game) this year.
-110 at BetMGM
Passing Yards
Tua Tagovailoa logo
Tua Tagovailoa o209.5 Passing Yards (-111)
Projection 241.36 (Over)
Best Odds
o209.5 -111 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 22 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o209.5  -111
These are quick bet odds
 -
o210.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o214.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
o212.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 7th-highest clip in the NFL vs. the Saints defense this year (73.7% Adjusted Completion%).. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, New Orleans's collection of safeties has been awful this year, grading out as the 10th-worst in the NFL.
-111 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Passing Yards
Tyler Shough logo
Tyler Shough u217.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Projection 187.29 (Under)
Best Odds
u217.5 -113 DraftKings
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
u217.5  -113
 -
u217.5  -114
u216.5  -115
u217.5  -114
The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Dolphins, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 30.0 per game) this year.
-113 at DraftKings
Interceptions Thrown
Tyler Shough logo
Tyler Shough u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+125)
Projection 0.38 (Under)
Best Odds
u0.5 +125 BetMGM
Pick made: 8 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u0.5  -103
 -
u0.5  +100
u0.5  +125
u0.5  -103
The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Dolphins, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 30.0 per game) this year.
+125 at BetMGM
Receiving Yards
Juwan Johnson logo
Juwan Johnson u47.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 37.75 (Under)
Best Odds
u47.5 -110 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 22 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u44.5  -112
These are quick bet odds
 -
u43.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
u47.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
u43.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Dolphins, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 30.0 per game) this year.. Juwan Johnson's receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 76.7% to 72.9%.. Juwan Johnson's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year illustrates a remarkable reduction in his effectiveness in space over last year's 3.9% figure.
-110 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds

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Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.
Spread

73% picking Miami

27%
73%

Total Picks NO 197, MIA 535

Spread
NO
MIA
Spread
+5.5 -103
-4.5 -135

Top User Picks

More Picks

User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.
Total

'goph62' picks New Orleans vs Miami to go Over (41.5)

goph62 is #1 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (3-1-0) and +5950 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.5 -104
41.5 -102
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'goph62' is picking Miami to cover (-5.5)

goph62 is #1 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (3-1-0) and +5950 units on the season.

Spread
NO
MIA
Spread
+5.5 -103
-4.5 -135
Spread

'spiveytexas61' is picking Miami to cover (-4.5)

spiveytexas61 is #10 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (6-4-1) and +4200 units on the season.

Spread
NO
MIA
Spread
+5.5 -103
-4.5 -135
Total

'spiveytexas61' picks New Orleans vs Miami to go Under (43.0)

spiveytexas61 is #10 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (6-4-1) and +4200 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.5 -104
41.5 -102
Total

'1003008gl' picks New Orleans vs Miami to go Over (43.0)

1003008gl is #2 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (10-1-0) and +5750 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.5 -104
41.5 -102
Spread

'1003008gl' is picking Miami to cover (-4.5)

1003008gl is #2 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (10-1-0) and +5750 units on the season.

Spread
NO
MIA
Spread
+5.5 -103
-4.5 -135
Total

'Manning2008SB' picks New Orleans vs Miami to go Over (41.5)

Manning2008SB is #3 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +5750 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.5 -104
41.5 -102
Total

'Sabster611' picks New Orleans vs Miami to go Under (41.5)

Sabster611 is #3 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (9-2-0) and +5750 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.5 -104
41.5 -102
Spread

'Sabster611' is picking Miami to cover (-6.0)

Sabster611 is #3 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (9-2-0) and +5750 units on the season.

Spread
NO
MIA
Spread
+5.5 -103
-4.5 -135
Spread

'Manning2008SB' is picking Miami to cover (-6.0)

Manning2008SB is #3 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +5750 units on the season.

Spread
NO
MIA
Spread
+5.5 -103
-4.5 -135
Total

'BetoCM' picks New Orleans vs Miami to go Under (41.5)

BetoCM is #4 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +4900 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.5 -104
41.5 -102
Spread

'BetoCM' is picking Miami to cover (-6.0)

BetoCM is #4 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +4900 units on the season.

Spread
NO
MIA
Spread
+5.5 -103
-4.5 -135
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'jerrygora' is picking Miami to cover (-6.0)

jerrygora is #4 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (6-0-1) and +5350 units on the season.

Spread
NO
MIA
Spread
+5.5 -103
-4.5 -135
Total

'jerrygora' picks New Orleans vs Miami to go Under (41.5)

jerrygora is #4 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (6-0-1) and +5350 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.5 -104
41.5 -102
Total

'sharkblue' picks New Orleans vs Miami to go Over (41.5)

sharkblue is #5 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (7-4-0) and +4700 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.5 -104
41.5 -102
Spread

'sharkblue' is picking Miami to cover (-5.5)

sharkblue is #5 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (7-4-0) and +4700 units on the season.

Spread
NO
MIA
Spread
+5.5 -103
-4.5 -135
Spread

'adamort22' is picking Miami to cover (-4.5)

adamort22 is #6 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (7-4-0) and +4700 units on the season.

Spread
NO
MIA
Spread
+5.5 -103
-4.5 -135
Total

'adamort22' picks New Orleans vs Miami to go Over (41.5)

adamort22 is #6 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (7-4-0) and +4700 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.5 -104
41.5 -102
Total

'TwoDrunk2Bunt' picks New Orleans vs Miami to go Under (41.5)

TwoDrunk2Bunt is #6 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (6-2-1) and +5300 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.5 -104
41.5 -102
Spread

'TwoDrunk2Bunt' is picking New Orleans to cover (+6.0)

TwoDrunk2Bunt is #6 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (6-2-1) and +5300 units on the season.

Spread
NO
MIA
Spread
+5.5 -103
-4.5 -135
Total

'BigG39' picks New Orleans vs Miami to go Over (41.5)

BigG39 is #8 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (9-1-1) and +5050 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.5 -104
41.5 -102
Spread

'BigG39' is picking Miami to cover (-6.0)

BigG39 is #8 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (9-1-1) and +5050 units on the season.

Spread
NO
MIA
Spread
+5.5 -103
-4.5 -135
Spread

'deweyay9' is picking New Orleans to cover (+4.5)

deweyay9 is #9 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4250 units on the season.

Spread
NO
MIA
Spread
+5.5 -103
-4.5 -135
Total

'deweyay9' picks New Orleans vs Miami to go Over (43.0)

deweyay9 is #9 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4250 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.5 -104
41.5 -102

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