New Orleans Saints
Picks

4th in NFC South (2 - 10 - 0)

Next Game

at

Sun, Dec 7 13:00 ET

NO @ TB Picks

Passing Completions

Tyler Shough u20.5 Passing Completions (-101)

Projection 18.02 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: 15 hours ago

EV Model Rating

At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (56.8% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Saints.. The Buccaneers safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Passing Yards

Tyler Shough u220.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Projection 184.92 (Under)

Best Odds

u220.5 -110

Pick made: 15 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u219.5 -113

u220.5 -110

u218.5 -114

u220.5 -115

u219.5 -115

At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (56.8% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Saints.. The Buccaneers safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Passing Yards

Baker Mayfield o224.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Projection 231.95 (Over)

Best Odds

o216.5 -114

Pick made: 21 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o218.5 -113

o224.5 -110

o216.5 -114

o224.5 -115

o218.5 -114

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 132.0 offensive plays called: the 3rd-most out of all the games this week.. In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks as the 10th-best in the league this year.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, New Orleans's unit has been very bad this year, grading out as the 8th-worst in the NFL.

-114 at FanDuel

Interceptions Thrown

Tyler Shough u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+130)

Projection 0.41 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: 16 hours ago

EV Model Rating

At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (56.8% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Saints.. The Buccaneers have intercepted 0.94 balls per game this year, grading out as the 5th-best defense in football by this metric.. The Buccaneers safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Receiving Yards

Chris Olave u61.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 57.27 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: 15 hours ago

EV Model Rating

At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (56.8% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Saints.. Chris Olave's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 73.7% to 65.6%.. Chris Olave's 6.6 adjusted yards per target this season indicates a meaningful reduction in his receiving ability over last season's 10.0 mark.. Chris Olave's talent in grinding out extra yardage have declined this year, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 3.50 figure last year.. This year, the fierce Buccaneers defense has conceded a measly 62.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 9th-smallest rate in the league.

Receiving Yards

Juwan Johnson u42.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 39.51 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: 16 hours ago

EV Model Rating

At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (56.8% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Saints.. Juwan Johnson's 72.7% Adjusted Catch% this season reflects a substantial decrease in his pass-catching skills over last season's 76.7% rate.. Juwan Johnson's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season illustrates a noteable decline in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last season's 3.9% figure.. This year, the stout Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has conceded the 7th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing TEs: a measly 6.9 yards.. The Buccaneers safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Rushing Yards

Bucky Irving o70.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 74.7 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 15 hours ago

EV Model Rating

This week's spread indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Buccaneers, who are a massive favorite by 8.5 points.. Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to run on 46.6% of their downs: the 6th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 132.0 offensive plays called: the 3rd-most out of all the games this week.. The Saints defensive tackles grade out as the 5th-worst group of DTs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Spread

62% picking Tampa Bay

38% 38%

62% 62%

Total Picks NO 150, TB 243

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NO

TB

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Top User Picks

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'TwoDrunk2Bunt' picks New Orleans vs Tampa Bay to go Over (42.5)

TwoDrunk2Bunt is #1 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (7-2-1) and +6300 units on the season.

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Under

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'TwoDrunk2Bunt' is picking New Orleans to cover (+9.0)

TwoDrunk2Bunt is #1 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (7-2-1) and +6300 units on the season.

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NO

TB

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'Lucknuts' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (-7.5)

Lucknuts is #10 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (3-4-0) and +4800 units on the season.

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NO

TB

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'Lucknuts' picks New Orleans vs Tampa Bay to go Under (43.0)

Lucknuts is #10 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (3-4-0) and +4800 units on the season.

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'BigG39' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (-8.5)

BigG39 is #2 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +5750 units on the season.

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NO

TB

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'BigG39' picks New Orleans vs Tampa Bay to go Under (42.5)

BigG39 is #2 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +5750 units on the season.

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Under

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'Sabster611' picks New Orleans vs Tampa Bay to go Under (42.5)

Sabster611 is #3 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (10-2-0) and +5700 units on the season.

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Under

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'Sabster611' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (-8.5)

Sabster611 is #3 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (10-2-0) and +5700 units on the season.

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NO

TB

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'rodger snyder' picks New Orleans vs Tampa Bay to go Over (42.5)

rodger snyder is #4 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +5200 units on the season.

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'rodger snyder' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (-9.0)

rodger snyder is #4 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +5200 units on the season.

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NO

TB

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'rquiroz' is picking New Orleans to cover (+9.0)

rquiroz is #5 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (3-2-0) and +5350 units on the season.

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NO

TB

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'jerrygora' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (-8.0)

jerrygora is #7 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (7-0-1) and +5300 units on the season.

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NO

TB

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'jerrygora' picks New Orleans vs Tampa Bay to go Under (43.0)

jerrygora is #7 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (7-0-1) and +5300 units on the season.

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Top New Orleans Pick Leaders Season 2025-2026

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