New Orleans Saints

4th in NFC South (2 - 8 - 0)

Next Game

ATLAtlanta Atlanta
at
New Orleans NONew Orleans
Sun, Nov 23 16:25 ET

ATL @ NO Picks

NFL Picks
Score a Touchdown
KhaDarel Hodge logo KhaDarel Hodge Score a Touchdown (Yes: +1500)
Best Odds
 +1100 FanDuel
Pick made: 2 days ago
Josh Inglis image
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
 +950
 +1000
 +1100
 -
 +1000

This Week 12 long shot stays indoors and features a receiver who already has a solid connection with his new quarterback, Kirk Cousins. With Michael Penix out and Drake London sidelined by a PCL injury, the door opens for KhaDarel Hodge. In Week 8, with Cousins under center and London inactive, Hodge saw eight targets and ran a season-high 21 routes. Darnell Mooney has been a non-factor and is dealing with a collarbone issue that may be limiting him. It’s a speculative play, but Hodge has a real chance to be a top-two WR for Atlanta in a favorable matchup. This is a full-unit swing that could close around +500 if he’s confirmed as the WR2.

MoneyLine
Atlanta Falcons logo ATL (+110)
Best Odds
 +115 bet365
Pick made: 3 days ago
Rohit Ponnaiya image
Rohit Ponnaiya
Betting Analyst
 +114
These are quick bet odds
 +115
 +114
These are quick bet odds
 +110
These are quick bet odds
 +111
These are quick bet odds

Things don't look good for the Falcons, who are on a five-game losing streak and just lost QB Michael Penix to a season-ending injury. That said, Kirk Cousins is one of the best backup QBs in the league, and Atlanta is facing New Orleans, which might be the worst team in the NFL. The Saints are 2-8 while ranking 30th in the league in DVOA. The Saints shouldn't be favored against anybody except the Titans, especially not a division rival that won't take this game lightly.

Spread
Atlanta Falcons logo ATL -1.0 (-103)
Best Odds
+1.5 -108 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 4 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
+2.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
+2.0  -110
+1.5  -108
These are quick bet odds
+2.0  -110
These are quick bet odds
+2.0  -102
These are quick bet odds

The Falcons have lost three consecutive one-possession games, so I like them figuring it out with veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins having a full week to prepare for the 2-8 Saints. New Orleans QB Tyler Shough has only seen meaningful action in three games, and he was held in check by both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Rams before a solid showing in Week 10 against the Carolina Panthers. With the Falcons ranking 14th in defensive DVOA and blitzing at the second-highest rate in the NFL, I’m expecting Shough to struggle again Sunday.

Score a Touchdown
Chris Olave logo
Chris Olave Score a Touchdown (Yes: +210)
Projection 0.46 (Yes)
Best Odds
 +210 bet365
Pick made: 23 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 +180
 +210
 +180
 -
 +188
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 133.4 total plays called: the highest number on the slate this week.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.. Chris Olave has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 26.7% this year, which ranks him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. Chris Olave has totaled significantly more air yards this year (106.0 per game) than he did last year (57.0 per game).. Chris Olave's 67.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 45.5.
+210 at bet365
Receptions Made
Alvin Kamara logo
Alvin Kamara u2.5 Receptions Made (+110)
Projection 2.27 (Under)
Best Odds
u2.5 +110 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u2.5  +102
These are quick bet odds
 -
u2.5  +102
These are quick bet odds
u2.5  +110
These are quick bet odds
u2.5  +101
These are quick bet odds
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Saints to pass on 53.3% of their downs: the 4th-lowest rate among all teams this week.. Opposing offenses have averaged 29.1 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 4th-fewest in the NFL.. Alvin Kamara's 18.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 34.0.. Alvin Kamara's play as a receiver has worsened this season, compiling a measly 2.8 adjusted catches compared to 4.8 last season.. As it relates to linebackers pass-rushing, Atlanta's LB corps has been great this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the league.
+110 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Passing Attempts
Kirk Cousins logo
Kirk Cousins o30.5 Passing Attempts (-110)
Projection 33.85 (Over)
Best Odds
o30.5 -110 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
o30.5  -116
These are quick bet odds
 -
o30.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
o30.5  -125
These are quick bet odds
o30.5  -121
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 133.4 total plays run: the most among all games this week.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
-110 at FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Passing Yards
Kirk Cousins logo
Kirk Cousins o206.5 Passing Yards (-105)
Projection 233.45 (Over)
Best Odds
o202.5 -115 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o205.5  -111
These are quick bet odds
 -
o207.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o202.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o206.5  -105
These are quick bet odds
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 133.4 total plays run: the most among all games this week.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. In regards to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Falcons ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.. This year, the feeble New Orleans Saints defense has allowed a whopping 73.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 9th-biggest rate in football.
-115 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Interceptions Thrown
Tyler Shough logo
Tyler Shough u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+105)
Projection 0.38 (Under)
Best Odds
u0.5 +105 BetMGM
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u0.5  -105
 -
u0.5  -102
u0.5  +105
u0.5  -106
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Saints to pass on 53.3% of their downs: the 4th-lowest rate among all teams this week.. Opposing offenses have averaged 29.1 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 4th-fewest in the NFL.
+105 at BetMGM
Receiving Yards
Darnell Mooney logo
Darnell Mooney o45.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 59.95 (Over)
Best Odds
o45.5 -115 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o46.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
 -
o47.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o45.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o47.5  -125
These are quick bet odds
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 133.4 total plays run: the most among all games this week.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. This week, Darnell Mooney is predicted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 90th percentile when it comes to WRs with 8.5 targets.. The model projects Darnell Mooney to be much more involved in his offense's pass game in this week's contest (25.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (19.1% in games he has played).. Darnell Mooney has compiled significantly more air yards this year (84.0 per game) than he did last year (73.0 per game).
-115 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Kyle Pitts Sr. logo
Kyle Pitts Sr. o49.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
Projection 56.59 (Over)
Best Odds
o49.5 -118 BetMGM
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o51.5  -109
 -
o50.5  -114
o49.5  -118
o50.5  -114
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 133.4 total plays run: the most among all games this week.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Kyle Pitts's 90.8% Route Participation Rate this season reflects a substantial progression in his passing attack volume over last season's 75.7% mark.. In this week's contest, Kyle Pitts is projected by the projection model to land in the 97th percentile among tight ends with 8.2 targets.. Kyle Pitts has accrued far more air yards this season (43.0 per game) than he did last season (36.0 per game).
-118 at BetMGM
Rushing Yards
Kirk Cousins logo
Kirk Cousins o0.5 Rushing Yards (+115)
Projection 2.72 (Over)
Best Odds
o0.5 +115 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 10 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o0.5  +115
These are quick bet odds
 -
o0.5  +114
These are quick bet odds
o0.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
 -
Right now, the 2nd-most run-heavy team in the NFL (44.0% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Falcons.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 133.4 total plays run: the most among all games this week.. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, New Orleans's unit has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 6th-worst in the league. in the league.
+115 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Rushing Yards
Tyler Shough logo
Tyler Shough o8.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
Projection 15.61 (Over)
Best Odds
o7.5 -105 BetMGM
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o8.5  -111
 -
o8.5  -114
o7.5  -105
o8.5  -114
The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to be the 4th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 46.7% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 133.4 total plays called: the highest number on the slate this week.. Opposing offenses have rushed for the 6th-most adjusted yards in the league (137 per game) versus the Falcons defense this year.. The Atlanta Falcons defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-worst group of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
-105 at BetMGM
Rushing Yards
Alvin Kamara logo
Alvin Kamara o56.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
Projection 65.44 (Over)
Best Odds
o55.5 -110 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o56.5  -111
These are quick bet odds
 -
o56.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o55.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
o56.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to be the 4th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 46.7% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 133.4 total plays called: the highest number on the slate this week.. The projections expect Alvin Kamara to accrue 17.9 carries in this game, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile when it comes to RBs.. Opposing offenses have rushed for the 6th-most adjusted yards in the league (137 per game) versus the Falcons defense this year.. The Atlanta Falcons defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-worst group of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
-110 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds

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Consensus Picks

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Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

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Consensus Picks

Top User Picks

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User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.
Total

'ljsjr' picks Atlanta vs New Orleans to go Over (39.5)

ljsjr is #1 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (9-1-0) and +6850 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
39.5 -116
40.5 -115
Spread

'ljsjr' is picking Atlanta to cover (+1.5)

ljsjr is #1 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (9-1-0) and +6850 units on the season.

Spread
ATL
NO
Spread
+2.5 -108
-1.5 -109
Spread

'hughjazz6969' is picking New Orleans to cover (-1.5)

hughjazz6969 is #10 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (0-0-0) and +3950 units on the season.

Spread
ATL
NO
Spread
+2.5 -108
-1.5 -109
Spread

'money455' is picking Atlanta to cover (-3.5)

money455 is #2 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (7-3-0) and +5800 units on the season.

Spread
ATL
NO
Spread
+2.5 -108
-1.5 -109
Total

'money455' picks Atlanta vs New Orleans to go Under (41.5)

money455 is #2 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (7-3-0) and +5800 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
39.5 -116
40.5 -115
Total

'Sabster611' picks Atlanta vs New Orleans to go Under (39.5)

Sabster611 is #2 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (8-2-0) and +5800 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
39.5 -116
40.5 -115
Spread

'Sabster611' is picking New Orleans to cover (-1.5)

Sabster611 is #2 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (8-2-0) and +5800 units on the season.

Spread
ATL
NO
Spread
+2.5 -108
-1.5 -109
Spread

'plasma9' is picking New Orleans to cover (-1.5)

plasma9 is #4 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (0-0-0) and +5000 units on the season.

Spread
ATL
NO
Spread
+2.5 -108
-1.5 -109
Spread

'swtknguy' is picking New Orleans to cover (+3.5)

swtknguy is #5 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +4750 units on the season.

Spread
ATL
NO
Spread
+2.5 -108
-1.5 -109
Total

'swtknguy' picks Atlanta vs New Orleans to go Over (41.5)

swtknguy is #5 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +4750 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
39.5 -116
40.5 -115
Total

'BillyJack' picks Atlanta vs New Orleans to go Over (39.5)

BillyJack is #5 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (7-2-1) and +5330 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
39.5 -116
40.5 -115
Spread

'BillyJack' is picking New Orleans to cover (-1.5)

BillyJack is #5 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (7-2-1) and +5330 units on the season.

Spread
ATL
NO
Spread
+2.5 -108
-1.5 -109
Spread

'tonloc4554' is picking New Orleans to cover (-2.0)

tonloc4554 is #6 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (5-1-0) and +4850 units on the season.

Spread
ATL
NO
Spread
+2.5 -108
-1.5 -109
Spread

'puppucci' is picking New Orleans to cover (+3.5)

puppucci is #7 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +4750 units on the season.

Spread
ATL
NO
Spread
+2.5 -108
-1.5 -109
Total

'puppucci' picks Atlanta vs New Orleans to go Over (41.5)

puppucci is #7 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +4750 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
39.5 -116
40.5 -115
Spread

'1003008gl' is picking Atlanta to cover (-3.5)

1003008gl is #7 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (9-1-0) and +4750 units on the season.

Spread
ATL
NO
Spread
+2.5 -108
-1.5 -109
Total

'1003008gl' picks Atlanta vs New Orleans to go Under (41.5)

1003008gl is #7 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (9-1-0) and +4750 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
39.5 -116
40.5 -115
Spread

'pureporkchop' is picking Atlanta to cover (+2.0)

pureporkchop is #8 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (6-4-0) and +4750 units on the season.

Spread
ATL
NO
Spread
+2.5 -108
-1.5 -109
Total

'pureporkchop' picks Atlanta vs New Orleans to go Over (40.5)

pureporkchop is #8 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (6-4-0) and +4750 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
39.5 -116
40.5 -115

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