Miami Dolphins

4th in AFC East (0 - 4 - 0)

Next Game

Sun, Oct 11 13:00 ET

CIN @ MIA Picks

NFL Picks
Spread
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail CIN -6.5 (-120)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Nick Galaida logo
Nick Galaida
Betting Analyst

Playable to 54%.

The Miami Dolphins have an NFL-worst (-55) point differential through four games and haven't finished a single game with better than a (-6.7%) Net Success Rate. Their struggles have been a combination of extreme youth and poor quarterback play.

Anytime Touchdown
Mike Gesicki logo Mike Gesicki Score a Touchdown (Yes: +260)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Nick Galaida logo
Nick Galaida
Betting Analyst

Playable to 29%.

Mike Gesicki saw an expanded role after Ja'Marr Chase exited Week 4 early due to a concussion, finishing with 5 targets and 40 receiving yards. If Chase is forced to miss this weekend's game, Gesicki is likely to be one of the team's primary options through the air. Even if Chase is on the field, Gesicki is a good bet to find space to operate against a poor defense.

Rushing Yards
Jaylen Wright logo Jaylen Wright o24.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Nick Galaida logo
Nick Galaida
Betting Analyst

Playable to 53%.

Head coach Jeff Hafley has repeatedly emphasized his desire to establish a ground game in 2026, which has led to one of the league's highest run rates through four weeks. Expect Wright to see a healthy workload this weekend and don't be surprised if he leads the Miami backfield in rush attempts against Cincinnati.

Anytime Touchdown
DM Dohnte Meyers Score a Touchdown (Yes: +240)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 days ago
Josh Inglis logo
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst

There are some concerns about getting this number early with Ja'Marr Chase still in concussion protocol and Tee Higgins a DNP due to multiple injuries, but I'm rolling with the rookie receiver in an elite matchup with an offense that had the second-highest pass rate of 2026 by any team last week. Meyers could be as short as 2.4x if both Chase and Higgins miss Week 5, after getting nine targets and 82 yards on a 93% route share last week. He played opposite Higgins when Chase went out and could still have a massive role even if one of the elite WRs suits up. He has WR3 value in this offense regardless, which runs 11 personnel at a 50% rate.

2 LEG PARLAY
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
CIN
Moneyline
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
o43.5
Total
Bet now
Pick made: yesterday
Nick Galaida logo
Nick Galaida
Betting Analyst

Playable to 42%.

The Dolphins rank 28th in defensive DVOA and 30th in completion percentage allowed over expected. Prior to Week 4, Miami hadn't forced a punt in the first half of a game in 2026.

Passing Yards
Joe Burrow logo
Joe Burrow o254.5 Passing Yards (-111)
Projection 277.78 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.9% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. The predictive model expects Joe Burrow to attempt 36.1 passes this week, on balance: the 8th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Joe Burrow has thrown for many more adjusted yards per game (304.0) this season than he did last season (196.0).. With a terrific 71.6% Adjusted Completion% (96th percentile) this year, Joe Burrow ranks as one of the most on-target QBs in the NFL.. With a stellar 7.74 adjusted yards-per-target (79th percentile) this year, Joe Burrow rates among the most efficient QBs in the NFL.
Rushing Yards
Ollie Gordon II logo
Ollie Gordon II o44.5 Rushing Yards (+100)
Projection 48.14 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins as the 3rd-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 46.8% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The Cincinnati Bengals defense owns the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, allowing 5.14 adjusted yards-per-carry.. The Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the 28th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.
Rushing Yards
Joe Burrow logo
Joe Burrow o7.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
Projection 9.8 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's spread implies an extreme rushing game script for the Bengals, who are a heavy favorite by 7 points.. Joe Burrow's 10.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year conveys a noteworthy boost in his running skills over last year's 5.0 mark.. Joe Burrow's 4.32 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season represents a substantial improvement in his rushing prowess over last season's 3.53 mark.. Opposing squads have rushed for the 9th-most adjusted yards in the league (124 per game) versus the Dolphins defense this year.
Rushing Yards
Malik Willis logo
Malik Willis o30.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Projection 35.34 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins as the 3rd-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 46.8% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Malik Willis to accrue 6.8 carries in this week's contest, on balance: the 4th-most among all QBs.. The predictive model expects Malik Willis to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack in this game (24.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (18.4% in games he has played).. The Cincinnati Bengals defense owns the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, allowing 5.14 adjusted yards-per-carry.. The Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the 28th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.
Receiving Yards
Chase Brown logo
Chase Brown o20.5 Receiving Yards (-116)
Projection 30.42 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.9% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. Chase Brown has run a route on 56.2% of his offense's passing plays this year, placing him in the 94th percentile among RBs.. The predictive model expects Chase Brown to notch 5.9 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile when it comes to running backs.. With an exceptional 24.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (88th percentile) this year, Chase Brown places as one of the top RB receiving threats in the league.. Chase Brown's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 81.1% to 95.2%.
Receiving Yards
Mike Gesicki logo
Mike Gesicki o35.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Projection 46 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 38 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.7% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. The leading projections forecast Mike Gesicki to garner 5.3 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. While Mike Gesicki has accounted for 10.0% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more integral piece of Cincinnati's passing offense in this game at 15.0%.. When it comes to air yards, Mike Gesicki ranks in the towering 90th percentile among tight ends this year, accumulating a striking 40.0 per game.. Mike Gesicki's 10.5 adjusted yards per target this season conveys a noteable growth in his pass-catching skills over last season's 7.4 figure.
Receiving Yards
Ollie Gordon II logo
Ollie Gordon II o9.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Projection 13 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 13 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Dolphins are a massive 7-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.. The Bengals defense has given up the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (42.0) versus RBs this year.. The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has shown weak efficiency against RBs since the start of last season, surrendering 7.40 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the most in football.. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Cincinnati's safety corps has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 7th-worst in the league.
Receiving Yards
Malik Washington logo
Malik Washington o44.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Projection 49.14 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Dolphins are a massive 7-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Cincinnati's CB corps has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 7th-worst in the league.
Rushing Attempts
Chase Brown logo
Chase Brown u16.5 Rushing Attempts (-108)
Projection 14.69 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 3rd-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 37.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 120.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Miami's collection of LBs has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 7th-best in football.
Rushing Attempts
Malik Willis logo
Malik Willis o5.5 Rushing Attempts (-122)
Projection 6.6 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins as the 2nd-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 47.0% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Malik Willis to accrue 6.8 carries in this week's contest, on balance: the 4th-most among all QBs.. The predictive model expects Malik Willis to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack in this game (24.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (18.4% in games he has played).. The Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the 28th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

Spread

71% picking Cincinnati

71%
29%

Total Picks CIN 783, MIA 317

Spread
CIN
MIA
Total

46% picking Cincinnati vs Miami to go Under

54%
46%

Total PicksCIN 339, MIA 285

Total
Over
Under

CIN @ MIA · Props

GAME & PLAYER PROPS PROJECTIONS ANALYSIS BEST ODDS
SPREAD
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
CIN -6.5 spread
-8.97 PROJECTION
-2.5 DIFFERENCE
14.25% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
CIN -6.5 spread

PROJECTION

-8.97 PROJECTION
-2.5 DIFFERENCE
14.25% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

-6.5 -120
theScore Bet logo
TOTAL
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
Under 43.5 Total
42.65 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
12.81% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
Under 43.5 Total

PROJECTION

42.65 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
12.81% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

u44.5 -115
theScore Bet logo
PASSING YARDS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o254.5 Passing Yards
277.78 OVER PROJECTION
+23.3 DIFFERENCE
25.28% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o254.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

277.78 OVER PROJECTION
+23.3 DIFFERENCE
25.28% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.9% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. The predictive model expects Joe Burrow to attempt 36.1 passes this week, on balance: the 8th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Joe Burrow has thrown for many more adjusted yards per game (304.0) this season than he did last season (196.0).. With a terrific 71.6% Adjusted Completion% (96th percentile) this year, Joe Burrow ranks as one of the most on-target QBs in the NFL.. With a stellar 7.74 adjusted yards-per-target (79th percentile) this year, Joe Burrow rates among the most efficient QBs in the NFL.

o250.5 -113
FanDuel logo
RUSHING YARDS
Ollie Gordon II logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
O. Gordon II (RB) o44.5 Rushing Yards
48.14 OVER PROJECTION
+3.6 DIFFERENCE
23.31% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Ollie Gordon II logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
O. Gordon II (RB) o44.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

48.14 OVER PROJECTION
+3.6 DIFFERENCE
23.31% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins as the 3rd-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 46.8% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The Cincinnati Bengals defense owns the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, allowing 5.14 adjusted yards-per-carry.. The Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the 28th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

o41.5 -125
BetMGM logo
RUSHING YARDS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o7.5 Rushing Yards
9.80 OVER PROJECTION
+2.3 DIFFERENCE
23.1% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o7.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

9.80 OVER PROJECTION
+2.3 DIFFERENCE
23.1% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread implies an extreme rushing game script for the Bengals, who are a heavy favorite by 7 points.. Joe Burrow's 10.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year conveys a noteworthy boost in his running skills over last year's 5.0 mark.. Joe Burrow's 4.32 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season represents a substantial improvement in his rushing prowess over last season's 3.53 mark.. Opposing squads have rushed for the 9th-most adjusted yards in the league (124 per game) versus the Dolphins defense this year.

o7.5 -105
BetMGM logo
RUSHING YARDS
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o30.5 Rushing Yards
35.34 OVER PROJECTION
+4.8 DIFFERENCE
21.3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o30.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

35.34 OVER PROJECTION
+4.8 DIFFERENCE
21.3% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins as the 3rd-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 46.8% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Malik Willis to accrue 6.8 carries in this week's contest, on balance: the 4th-most among all QBs.. The predictive model expects Malik Willis to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack in this game (24.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (18.4% in games he has played).. The Cincinnati Bengals defense owns the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, allowing 5.14 adjusted yards-per-carry.. The Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the 28th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

o30.5 -113
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o20.5 Receiving Yards
30.42 OVER PROJECTION
+9.9 DIFFERENCE
25.9% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o20.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

30.42 OVER PROJECTION
+9.9 DIFFERENCE
25.9% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.9% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. Chase Brown has run a route on 56.2% of his offense's passing plays this year, placing him in the 94th percentile among RBs.. The predictive model expects Chase Brown to notch 5.9 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile when it comes to running backs.. With an exceptional 24.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (88th percentile) this year, Chase Brown places as one of the top RB receiving threats in the league.. Chase Brown's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 81.1% to 95.2%.

o20.5 -113
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o35.5 Receiving Yards
46.00 OVER PROJECTION
+10.5 DIFFERENCE
25.81% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o35.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

46.00 OVER PROJECTION
+10.5 DIFFERENCE
25.81% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.7% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. The leading projections forecast Mike Gesicki to garner 5.3 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. While Mike Gesicki has accounted for 10.0% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more integral piece of Cincinnati's passing offense in this game at 15.0%.. When it comes to air yards, Mike Gesicki ranks in the towering 90th percentile among tight ends this year, accumulating a striking 40.0 per game.. Mike Gesicki's 10.5 adjusted yards per target this season conveys a noteable growth in his pass-catching skills over last season's 7.4 figure.

o30.5 -110
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Ollie Gordon II logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
O. Gordon II (RB) o9.5 Receiving Yards
13.00 OVER PROJECTION
+3.5 DIFFERENCE
23.04% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Ollie Gordon II logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
O. Gordon II (RB) o9.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

13.00 OVER PROJECTION
+3.5 DIFFERENCE
23.04% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are a massive 7-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.. The Bengals defense has given up the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (42.0) versus RBs this year.. The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has shown weak efficiency against RBs since the start of last season, surrendering 7.40 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the most in football.. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Cincinnati's safety corps has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 7th-worst in the league.

o9.5 -113
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Malik Washington logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Washington (WR) o44.5 Receiving Yards
49.14 OVER PROJECTION
+4.6 DIFFERENCE
19.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Malik Washington logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Washington (WR) o44.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

49.14 OVER PROJECTION
+4.6 DIFFERENCE
19.95% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are a massive 7-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Cincinnati's CB corps has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 7th-worst in the league.

o44.5 -113
DraftKings logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) o25.5 Receiving Yards
27.59 OVER PROJECTION
+2.1 DIFFERENCE
15.22% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) o25.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

27.59 OVER PROJECTION
+2.1 DIFFERENCE
15.22% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are a massive 7-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.. Greg Dulcich has gone out for fewer passes this season (67.9% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (49.2%).. With a terrific 1.14 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (75th percentile) since the start of last season, Greg Dulcich places as one of the best TE receiving threats in football in picking up extra yardage.. The Bengals defense has given up the most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (97.0) versus tight ends this year.

o24.5 -115
BetMGM logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made
3.91 OVER PROJECTION
+1.4 DIFFERENCE
13.48% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.91 OVER PROJECTION
+1.4 DIFFERENCE
13.48% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.9% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. The leading projections forecast Mike Gesicki to garner 5.2 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. While Mike Gesicki has accounted for 10.0% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more integral piece of Cincinnati's passing offense in this game at 15.0%.. The Dolphins pass defense has allowed the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (93.9%) vs. TEs this year (93.9%).. As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Miami's safety corps has been terrible this year, profiling as the 5th-worst in the NFL.

o2.5 -165
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o3.5 Receptions Made
4.38 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
10.94% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Caesars Odds
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.38 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
10.94% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.9% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. Chase Brown has run a route on 56.2% of his offense's passing plays this year, placing him in the 94th percentile among RBs.. The predictive model expects Chase Brown to notch 5.9 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile when it comes to running backs.. Chase Brown's 2.5 adjusted receptions per game this season shows an impressive regression in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 3.7 mark.. Chase Brown's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 81.1% to 95.2%.

o3.5 -129
Caesars Odds logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Malik Washington logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Washington (WR) u4.5 Receptions Made
4.47 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
8.33% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Malik Washington logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Washington (WR) u4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.47 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
8.33% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Dolphins as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 52.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The model projects the Dolphins to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 59.8 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The Miami Dolphins have called the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 50.2 plays per game.. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the Dolphins ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year.

u4.5 +108
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Ollie Gordon II logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
O. Gordon II (RB) o1.5 Receptions Made
1.69 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-15.55% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Ollie Gordon II logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
O. Gordon II (RB) o1.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

1.69 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-15.55% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are a massive 7-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.. The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (86.4%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (86.4%).. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Cincinnati's safety corps has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 7th-worst in the league.

o1.5 -125
theScore Bet logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made
2.50 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
-17.38% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.50 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
-17.38% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are a massive 7-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.. Greg Dulcich has gone out for fewer passes this season (67.9% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (49.2%).. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Cincinnati's safety corps has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 7th-worst in the league.

o2.5 -120
BetMGM logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) u16.5 Rushing Attempts
14.69 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.8 DIFFERENCE
19.21% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) u16.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

14.69 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.8 DIFFERENCE
19.21% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 3rd-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 37.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 120.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Miami's collection of LBs has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 7th-best in football.

u16.5 -105
theScore Bet logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o5.5 Rushing Attempts
6.60 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
17.29% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o5.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

6.60 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
17.29% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins as the 2nd-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 47.0% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Malik Willis to accrue 6.8 carries in this week's contest, on balance: the 4th-most among all QBs.. The predictive model expects Malik Willis to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack in this game (24.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (18.4% in games he has played).. The Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the 28th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

o5.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o2.5 Rushing Attempts
2.74 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-14.62% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o2.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

2.74 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-14.62% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread implies an extreme rushing game script for the Bengals, who are a heavy favorite by 7 points.

o2.5 -165
bet365 logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o33.5 Passing Attempts
34.37 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
10.32% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o33.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

34.37 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
10.32% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.9% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. The predictive model expects Joe Burrow to attempt 36.2 passes this week, on balance: the 8th-most out of all quarterbacks.

o32.5 -125
DraftKings logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) u28.5 Passing Attempts
27.39 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.1 DIFFERENCE
7.99% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) u28.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

27.39 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.1 DIFFERENCE
7.99% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Dolphins as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The model projects the Dolphins to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 59.7 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The Miami Dolphins have called the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 50.2 plays per game.. In this week's contest, Malik Willis is projected by the projection model to average the fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 28.5.

u28.5 -115
bet365 logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o22.5 Passing Completions
25.13 OVER PROJECTION
+2.6 DIFFERENCE
16.56% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o22.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

25.13 OVER PROJECTION
+2.6 DIFFERENCE
16.56% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.9% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. The predictive model expects Joe Burrow to attempt 36.1 passes this week, on balance: the 8th-most out of all quarterbacks.. With a terrific 71.6% Adjusted Completion% (96th percentile) this year, Joe Burrow ranks as one of the most on-target QBs in the NFL.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest rate in football vs. the Dolphins defense since the start of last season (75.8% Adjusted Completion%).. As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Miami's safety corps has been terrible this year, profiling as the 5th-worst in the NFL.

o22.5 -120
bet365 logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) u17.5 Passing Completions
15.89 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.6 DIFFERENCE
12.37% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) u17.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

15.89 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.6 DIFFERENCE
12.37% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Dolphins as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 52.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The model projects the Dolphins to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 59.8 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The Miami Dolphins have called the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 50.2 plays per game.. In this week's contest, Malik Willis is projected by the projection model to average the fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 28.5. . Malik Willis's 54.9% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a substantial diminishment in his throwing accuracy over last year's 86.9% rate.

u17.5 -121
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.23 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.23 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.9% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.9% red zone pass rate.. The predictive model expects Joe Burrow to attempt 36.2 passes this week, on balance: the 8th-most out of all quarterbacks.. With a terrific 71.6% Adjusted Completion% (96th percentile) this year, Joe Burrow ranks as one of the most on-target QBs in the NFL.. Joe Burrow has run for 0.25 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the league among QBs (92nd percentile).

+850
BetRivers logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Malik Washington logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Washington (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.38 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
22.35% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Malik Washington logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Washington (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.38 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
22.35% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are a massive 7-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.. Opposing squads have rushed for the 10th-fewest touchdowns in the NFL (0.75 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.

+310
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.75 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
15.35% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.75 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
15.35% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.9% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.9% red zone pass rate.. While Chase Brown has been responsible for 6.2% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more important option in Cincinnati's passing attack near the end zone in this week's game at 14.9%.. Chase Brown's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 81.1% to 95.2%.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest rate in football vs. the Dolphins defense since the start of last season (75.8% Adjusted Completion%).

-145
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
CIN
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
D. Meyers (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.29 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.49% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
CIN
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
D. Meyers (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.29 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.49% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.9% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.9% red zone pass rate.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest rate in football vs. the Dolphins defense since the start of last season (75.8% Adjusted Completion%).. As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Miami's safety corps has been terrible this year, profiling as the 5th-worst in the NFL.

+310
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.31 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
12.98% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Hard Rock Bet
Best Odds
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.31 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
12.98% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.9% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.9% red zone pass rate.. Mike Gesicki has been a key part of his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 18.8% this year, which ranks in the 86th percentile when it comes to TEs.. When it comes to air yards, Mike Gesicki ranks in the towering 90th percentile among tight ends this year, accumulating a striking 40.0 per game.. Mike Gesicki's 24.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 78th percentile for TEs.

+300
Hard Rock Bet logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.21 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.83% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.21 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.83% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are a massive 7-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.. Opposing squads have rushed for the 10th-fewest touchdowns in the NFL (0.75 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.

+480
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.22 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-5.03% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.22 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-5.03% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are a massive 7-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.. Opposing squads have rushed for the 10th-fewest touchdowns in the NFL (0.75 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.

+310
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Ollie Gordon II logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
O. Gordon II (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.34 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-9.82% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Ollie Gordon II logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
O. Gordon II (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.34 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-9.82% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are a massive 7-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.. The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (86.4%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (86.4%).. Opposing squads have rushed for the 10th-fewest touchdowns in the NFL (0.75 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.

+150
BetMGM logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.36 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
14.59% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.36 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
14.59% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread implies an extreme rushing game script for the Bengals, who are a heavy favorite by 7 points.. The projections expect this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 120.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the Dolphins, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 31.5 per game) this year.. Miami's defense grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL this year when it comes to generating interceptions, compiling 1.03 per game.

u0.5 -140
bet365 logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.73 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
4.31% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.73 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
4.31% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are a massive 7-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.. Cincinnati's defense profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year as it relates to causing interceptions, averaging a measly 0.25 per game.. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Cincinnati's CB corps has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 7th-worst in the league.

o0.5 +106
BetRivers logo
  • Proj. Diff: Low to High
  • Proj. Diff: High to Low
  • Proj. Rating: Low to High
  • Proj. Rating: High to Low
  • +EV: Low to High
  • +EV: High to Low
SPREAD
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
CIN -6.5 spread
-8.97 PROJECTION
-2.5 DIFFERENCE
14.25% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
CIN -6.5 spread

PROJECTION

-8.97 PROJECTION
-2.5 DIFFERENCE
14.25% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

-6.5 -120
theScore Bet logo
TOTAL
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
Under 43.5 Total
42.65 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
12.81% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
Under 43.5 Total

PROJECTION

42.65 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
12.81% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

u44.5 -115
theScore Bet logo
PASSING YARDS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o254.5 Passing Yards
277.78 OVER PROJECTION
+23.3 DIFFERENCE
25.28% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o254.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

277.78 OVER PROJECTION
+23.3 DIFFERENCE
25.28% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.9% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. The predictive model expects Joe Burrow to attempt 36.1 passes this week, on balance: the 8th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Joe Burrow has thrown for many more adjusted yards per game (304.0) this season than he did last season (196.0).. With a terrific 71.6% Adjusted Completion% (96th percentile) this year, Joe Burrow ranks as one of the most on-target QBs in the NFL.. With a stellar 7.74 adjusted yards-per-target (79th percentile) this year, Joe Burrow rates among the most efficient QBs in the NFL.

o250.5 -113
FanDuel logo
RUSHING YARDS
Ollie Gordon II logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
O. Gordon II (RB) o44.5 Rushing Yards
48.14 OVER PROJECTION
+3.6 DIFFERENCE
23.31% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Ollie Gordon II logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
O. Gordon II (RB) o44.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

48.14 OVER PROJECTION
+3.6 DIFFERENCE
23.31% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins as the 3rd-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 46.8% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The Cincinnati Bengals defense owns the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, allowing 5.14 adjusted yards-per-carry.. The Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the 28th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

o41.5 -125
BetMGM logo
RUSHING YARDS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o7.5 Rushing Yards
9.80 OVER PROJECTION
+2.3 DIFFERENCE
23.1% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o7.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

9.80 OVER PROJECTION
+2.3 DIFFERENCE
23.1% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread implies an extreme rushing game script for the Bengals, who are a heavy favorite by 7 points.. Joe Burrow's 10.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year conveys a noteworthy boost in his running skills over last year's 5.0 mark.. Joe Burrow's 4.32 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season represents a substantial improvement in his rushing prowess over last season's 3.53 mark.. Opposing squads have rushed for the 9th-most adjusted yards in the league (124 per game) versus the Dolphins defense this year.

o7.5 -105
BetMGM logo
RUSHING YARDS
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o30.5 Rushing Yards
35.34 OVER PROJECTION
+4.8 DIFFERENCE
21.3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o30.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

35.34 OVER PROJECTION
+4.8 DIFFERENCE
21.3% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins as the 3rd-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 46.8% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Malik Willis to accrue 6.8 carries in this week's contest, on balance: the 4th-most among all QBs.. The predictive model expects Malik Willis to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack in this game (24.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (18.4% in games he has played).. The Cincinnati Bengals defense owns the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, allowing 5.14 adjusted yards-per-carry.. The Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the 28th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

o30.5 -113
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o20.5 Receiving Yards
30.42 OVER PROJECTION
+9.9 DIFFERENCE
25.9% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o20.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

30.42 OVER PROJECTION
+9.9 DIFFERENCE
25.9% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.9% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. Chase Brown has run a route on 56.2% of his offense's passing plays this year, placing him in the 94th percentile among RBs.. The predictive model expects Chase Brown to notch 5.9 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile when it comes to running backs.. With an exceptional 24.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (88th percentile) this year, Chase Brown places as one of the top RB receiving threats in the league.. Chase Brown's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 81.1% to 95.2%.

o20.5 -113
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o35.5 Receiving Yards
46.00 OVER PROJECTION
+10.5 DIFFERENCE
25.81% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o35.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

46.00 OVER PROJECTION
+10.5 DIFFERENCE
25.81% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.7% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. The leading projections forecast Mike Gesicki to garner 5.3 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. While Mike Gesicki has accounted for 10.0% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more integral piece of Cincinnati's passing offense in this game at 15.0%.. When it comes to air yards, Mike Gesicki ranks in the towering 90th percentile among tight ends this year, accumulating a striking 40.0 per game.. Mike Gesicki's 10.5 adjusted yards per target this season conveys a noteable growth in his pass-catching skills over last season's 7.4 figure.

o30.5 -110
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Ollie Gordon II logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
O. Gordon II (RB) o9.5 Receiving Yards
13.00 OVER PROJECTION
+3.5 DIFFERENCE
23.04% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Ollie Gordon II logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
O. Gordon II (RB) o9.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

13.00 OVER PROJECTION
+3.5 DIFFERENCE
23.04% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are a massive 7-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.. The Bengals defense has given up the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (42.0) versus RBs this year.. The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has shown weak efficiency against RBs since the start of last season, surrendering 7.40 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the most in football.. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Cincinnati's safety corps has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 7th-worst in the league.

o9.5 -113
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Malik Washington logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Washington (WR) o44.5 Receiving Yards
49.14 OVER PROJECTION
+4.6 DIFFERENCE
19.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Malik Washington logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Washington (WR) o44.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

49.14 OVER PROJECTION
+4.6 DIFFERENCE
19.95% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are a massive 7-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Cincinnati's CB corps has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 7th-worst in the league.

o44.5 -113
DraftKings logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) o25.5 Receiving Yards
27.59 OVER PROJECTION
+2.1 DIFFERENCE
15.22% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) o25.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

27.59 OVER PROJECTION
+2.1 DIFFERENCE
15.22% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are a massive 7-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.. Greg Dulcich has gone out for fewer passes this season (67.9% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (49.2%).. With a terrific 1.14 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (75th percentile) since the start of last season, Greg Dulcich places as one of the best TE receiving threats in football in picking up extra yardage.. The Bengals defense has given up the most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (97.0) versus tight ends this year.

o24.5 -115
BetMGM logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made
3.91 OVER PROJECTION
+1.4 DIFFERENCE
13.48% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.91 OVER PROJECTION
+1.4 DIFFERENCE
13.48% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.9% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. The leading projections forecast Mike Gesicki to garner 5.2 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. While Mike Gesicki has accounted for 10.0% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more integral piece of Cincinnati's passing offense in this game at 15.0%.. The Dolphins pass defense has allowed the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (93.9%) vs. TEs this year (93.9%).. As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Miami's safety corps has been terrible this year, profiling as the 5th-worst in the NFL.

o2.5 -165
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o3.5 Receptions Made
4.38 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
10.94% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Caesars Odds
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.38 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
10.94% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.9% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. Chase Brown has run a route on 56.2% of his offense's passing plays this year, placing him in the 94th percentile among RBs.. The predictive model expects Chase Brown to notch 5.9 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile when it comes to running backs.. Chase Brown's 2.5 adjusted receptions per game this season shows an impressive regression in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 3.7 mark.. Chase Brown's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 81.1% to 95.2%.

o3.5 -129
Caesars Odds logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Malik Washington logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Washington (WR) u4.5 Receptions Made
4.47 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
8.33% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Malik Washington logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Washington (WR) u4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.47 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
8.33% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Dolphins as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 52.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The model projects the Dolphins to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 59.8 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The Miami Dolphins have called the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 50.2 plays per game.. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the Dolphins ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year.

u4.5 +108
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Ollie Gordon II logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
O. Gordon II (RB) o1.5 Receptions Made
1.69 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-15.55% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Ollie Gordon II logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
O. Gordon II (RB) o1.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

1.69 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-15.55% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are a massive 7-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.. The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (86.4%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (86.4%).. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Cincinnati's safety corps has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 7th-worst in the league.

o1.5 -125
theScore Bet logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made
2.50 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
-17.38% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.50 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
-17.38% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are a massive 7-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.. Greg Dulcich has gone out for fewer passes this season (67.9% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (49.2%).. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Cincinnati's safety corps has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 7th-worst in the league.

o2.5 -120
BetMGM logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) u16.5 Rushing Attempts
14.69 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.8 DIFFERENCE
19.21% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) u16.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

14.69 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.8 DIFFERENCE
19.21% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 3rd-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 37.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 120.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Miami's collection of LBs has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 7th-best in football.

u16.5 -105
theScore Bet logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o5.5 Rushing Attempts
6.60 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
17.29% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o5.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

6.60 OVER PROJECTION
+1.1 DIFFERENCE
17.29% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins as the 2nd-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 47.0% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Malik Willis to accrue 6.8 carries in this week's contest, on balance: the 4th-most among all QBs.. The predictive model expects Malik Willis to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack in this game (24.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (18.4% in games he has played).. The Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the 28th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

o5.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o2.5 Rushing Attempts
2.74 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-14.62% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o2.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

2.74 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-14.62% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread implies an extreme rushing game script for the Bengals, who are a heavy favorite by 7 points.

o2.5 -165
bet365 logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o33.5 Passing Attempts
34.37 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
10.32% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o33.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

34.37 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
10.32% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.9% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. The predictive model expects Joe Burrow to attempt 36.2 passes this week, on balance: the 8th-most out of all quarterbacks.

o32.5 -125
DraftKings logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) u28.5 Passing Attempts
27.39 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.1 DIFFERENCE
7.99% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) u28.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

27.39 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.1 DIFFERENCE
7.99% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Dolphins as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The model projects the Dolphins to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 59.7 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The Miami Dolphins have called the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 50.2 plays per game.. In this week's contest, Malik Willis is projected by the projection model to average the fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 28.5.

u28.5 -115
bet365 logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o22.5 Passing Completions
25.13 OVER PROJECTION
+2.6 DIFFERENCE
16.56% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) o22.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

25.13 OVER PROJECTION
+2.6 DIFFERENCE
16.56% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.9% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. The predictive model expects Joe Burrow to attempt 36.1 passes this week, on balance: the 8th-most out of all quarterbacks.. With a terrific 71.6% Adjusted Completion% (96th percentile) this year, Joe Burrow ranks as one of the most on-target QBs in the NFL.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest rate in football vs. the Dolphins defense since the start of last season (75.8% Adjusted Completion%).. As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Miami's safety corps has been terrible this year, profiling as the 5th-worst in the NFL.

o22.5 -120
bet365 logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) u17.5 Passing Completions
15.89 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.6 DIFFERENCE
12.37% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) u17.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

15.89 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.6 DIFFERENCE
12.37% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Dolphins as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 52.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The model projects the Dolphins to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 59.8 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The Miami Dolphins have called the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 50.2 plays per game.. In this week's contest, Malik Willis is projected by the projection model to average the fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 28.5. . Malik Willis's 54.9% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a substantial diminishment in his throwing accuracy over last year's 86.9% rate.

u17.5 -121
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.23 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.23 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
27.2% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.9% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.9% red zone pass rate.. The predictive model expects Joe Burrow to attempt 36.2 passes this week, on balance: the 8th-most out of all quarterbacks.. With a terrific 71.6% Adjusted Completion% (96th percentile) this year, Joe Burrow ranks as one of the most on-target QBs in the NFL.. Joe Burrow has run for 0.25 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the league among QBs (92nd percentile).

+850
BetRivers logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Malik Washington logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Washington (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.38 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
22.35% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Malik Washington logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Washington (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.38 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
22.35% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are a massive 7-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.. Opposing squads have rushed for the 10th-fewest touchdowns in the NFL (0.75 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.

+310
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.75 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
15.35% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Chase Brown logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
C. Brown (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.75 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
15.35% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.9% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.9% red zone pass rate.. While Chase Brown has been responsible for 6.2% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more important option in Cincinnati's passing attack near the end zone in this week's game at 14.9%.. Chase Brown's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 81.1% to 95.2%.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest rate in football vs. the Dolphins defense since the start of last season (75.8% Adjusted Completion%).

-145
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
CIN
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
D. Meyers (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.29 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.49% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
CIN
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
D. Meyers (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.29 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.49% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.9% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.9% red zone pass rate.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest rate in football vs. the Dolphins defense since the start of last season (75.8% Adjusted Completion%).. As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Miami's safety corps has been terrible this year, profiling as the 5th-worst in the NFL.

+310
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.31 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
12.98% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Hard Rock Bet
Best Odds
Mike Gesicki logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
M. Gesicki (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.31 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
12.98% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.9% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.9% red zone pass rate.. Mike Gesicki has been a key part of his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 18.8% this year, which ranks in the 86th percentile when it comes to TEs.. When it comes to air yards, Mike Gesicki ranks in the towering 90th percentile among tight ends this year, accumulating a striking 40.0 per game.. Mike Gesicki's 24.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 78th percentile for TEs.

+300
Hard Rock Bet logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.21 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.83% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.21 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.83% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are a massive 7-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.. Opposing squads have rushed for the 10th-fewest touchdowns in the NFL (0.75 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.

+480
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.22 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-5.03% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.22 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-5.03% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are a massive 7-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.. Opposing squads have rushed for the 10th-fewest touchdowns in the NFL (0.75 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.

+310
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Ollie Gordon II logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
O. Gordon II (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.34 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-9.82% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Ollie Gordon II logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
O. Gordon II (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.34 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-9.82% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are a massive 7-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.. The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (86.4%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (86.4%).. Opposing squads have rushed for the 10th-fewest touchdowns in the NFL (0.75 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.

+150
BetMGM logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.36 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
14.59% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Joe Burrow logo
Cincinnati Bengals image thumbnail
J. Burrow (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.36 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
14.59% EV

ANALYSIS

This game's spread implies an extreme rushing game script for the Bengals, who are a heavy favorite by 7 points.. The projections expect this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 120.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the Dolphins, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 31.5 per game) this year.. Miami's defense grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL this year when it comes to generating interceptions, compiling 1.03 per game.

u0.5 -140
bet365 logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.73 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
4.31% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.73 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
4.31% EV

ANALYSIS

The Dolphins are a massive 7-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.. Cincinnati's defense profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year as it relates to causing interceptions, averaging a measly 0.25 per game.. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Cincinnati's CB corps has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 7th-worst in the league.

o0.5 +106
BetRivers logo

Top User Picks

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User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.

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'jenjay23' is picking Miami to cover (+7.5)

jenjay23 is #1 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +4000 units on the season.

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'jenjay23' picks Cincinnati vs Miami to go Over (42.5)

jenjay23 is #1 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +4000 units on the season.

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'MJM333' is picking Cincinnati to cover (-6.5)

MJM333 is #1 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.

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'Coloneljim' is picking Cincinnati to cover (-6.5)

Coloneljim is #10 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.

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'Coloneljim' picks Cincinnati vs Miami to go Over (43.5)

Coloneljim is #10 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.

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'SlicerDicer' picks Cincinnati vs Miami to go Under (42.5)

SlicerDicer is #2 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +4000 units on the season.

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'SlicerDicer' is picking Cincinnati to cover (-6.5)

SlicerDicer is #2 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +4000 units on the season.

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'RR69' picks Cincinnati vs Miami to go Over (42.5)

RR69 is #3 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +2950 units on the season.

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'RR69' is picking Cincinnati to cover (-6.5)

RR69 is #3 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +2950 units on the season.

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'reddog6008' picks Cincinnati vs Miami to go Under (43.5)

reddog6008 is #3 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +4000 units on the season.

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'reddog6008' is picking Cincinnati to cover (-6.5)

reddog6008 is #3 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +4000 units on the season.

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'elpedro2007' is picking Miami to cover (+6.0)

elpedro2007 is #4 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +2950 units on the season.

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'elpedro2007' picks Cincinnati vs Miami to go Under (49.5)

elpedro2007 is #4 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +2950 units on the season.

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'pvass' is picking Cincinnati to cover (-6.0)

pvass is #4 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3500 units on the season.

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'ghostriderjeff' picks Cincinnati vs Miami to go Under (42.5)

ghostriderjeff is #5 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3500 units on the season.

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'ghostriderjeff' is picking Cincinnati to cover (-7.5)

ghostriderjeff is #5 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3500 units on the season.

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'Jayahaa' picks Cincinnati vs Miami to go Under (42.5)

Jayahaa is #6 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3500 units on the season.

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'Jayahaa' is picking Cincinnati to cover (-6.5)

Jayahaa is #6 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3500 units on the season.

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CIN
MIA
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'david patrick' is picking Miami to cover (+7.5)

david patrick is #7 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2500 units on the season.

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CIN
MIA

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