Miami Dolphins Picks

Pick made: yesterday

u30.5 -101

u30.5 -115

u30.5 -110

u31.5 -110

Baker Mayfield has completed fewer than 20 passes in 10 of 15 games this season, including in each of his last six contests. He did have 19 and 18 completions in the last four games, but he hasn’t really come close to this 31.5 number. Joe Burrow and Aaron Rodgers got into the mid-20s in passing completions the past two weeks, but Mayfield isn’t nearly as trustworthy as they are. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers should look to control the game on the ground as road favorites against the Miami Dolphins.

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Score a Touchdown

Bucky Irving Score a Touchdown (Yes: +145)

Best Odds

+130

Pick made: 2 days ago

+125

+130

+120

+130

I don’t love backing Tampa Bay, but Bucky Irving’s price in this matchup is hard to ignore with everything on the line for the Buccaneers. Sean Tucker has taken on a more defined goal-line role, but it’s largely been limited to one-yard plunges and three carries per game. Irving, on the other hand, is handling 20-plus touches in a run-first offense that benefits from Miami having to respect the passing game, leading to softer boxes. That volume gives him a strong scoring profile, especially against a Dolphins defense that allowed six touchdowns on six red-zone trips to Joe Burrow last week. At this number, Irving has well over a 50% chance to find the end zone.

Game Prop

o20.5 Team Total (+100)

Best Odds

o24.5 -118

Pick made: 4 days ago

o25.5 -115

o27.5 +125

o25.5 -111

o24.5 -118

o25.5 -118

The Dolphins offense is much more versatile with Quinn Ewers under center. Before benching Tua, Miami was actively trying to keep the ball out of his hands. Ewers, however, threw for 260 yards last week – mark Tua had passed only twice all season. Tampa’s defense is dreadful and this once mighty run-stop unit is broken. Achane goes big. Ewers stretches the field. And the Bucs will be scoreboard watching. They could think about pulling their starters in the second half should they be up big and Carolina be down to Seattle, protecting themselves for a Week 18 NFC South title game.

Score a Touchdown

Quinn Ewers Score a Touchdown (Yes: +1050)

Projection 0.13 (Yes)

Best Odds

+1050

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

+850

+1000

+850

+1050

+800

A passing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a -6-point underdog this week.. The Buccaneers defense has given up the 6th-most passing TDs in football: 1.73 per game this year.. When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's collection of LBs has been atrocious this year, profiling as the 4th-worst in the NFL.

+1050 at BetMGM

Score a Touchdown

Bucky Irving Score a Touchdown (Yes: +120)

Projection 0.63 (Yes)

Best Odds

+130

Pick made: 5 hours ago

EV Model Rating

+125

+130

+120

+130

The Dolphins pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (90.2%) vs. running backs this year (90.2%).. The Miami Dolphins defense has allowed the 10th-most touchdowns through the air in football to RBs: 0.20 per game this year.. As it relates to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Miami's collection of LBs has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.

+130 at FanDuel

Passing Attempts

Baker Mayfield u32.5 Passing Attempts (-114)

Projection 29.37 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

u30.5 -101

u30.5 -115

u30.5 -110

u31.5 -110

The Buccaneers are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.. The leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect the Buccaneers to call the 3rd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.1 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. In this contest, Baker Mayfield is projected by the predictive model to total the 7th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 31.6. . Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game against the Dolphins defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.

-114 at FanDuel

Passing Yards

Quinn Ewers u208.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Projection 199.25 (Under)

Best Odds

u208.5 -115

Pick made: 12 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u206.5 -111

u205.5 -110

u205.5 -112

u208.5 -115

u206.5 -115

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins as the 10th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 124.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Dolphins have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 51.9 plays per game.. The Miami O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

-115 at BetMGM

Receiving Yards

Darren Waller o29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 35.35 (Over)

Best Odds

o29.5 -110

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o32.5 -109

o29.5 -110

o30.5 -112

o29.5 -118

o31.5 -118

A passing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a -5.5-point underdog this week.. This week, Darren Waller is expected by the projections to find himself in the 78th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.8 targets.. As it relates to air yards, Darren Waller ranks in the towering 95th percentile among TEs this year, totaling a whopping 46.0 per game.. Darren Waller ranks in the 92nd percentile among TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a massive 39.2 figure this year.. This year, the weak Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has been gouged for a massive 78.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 7th-biggest rate in football.

-110 at bet365

Receiving Yards

Bucky Irving o17.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 19.93 (Over)

Best Odds

o16.5 -115

Pick made: 14 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o17.5 -107

o17.5 -110

o17.5 -112

o16.5 -115

o17.5 -112

This year, the porous Miami Dolphins defense has been gouged for a massive 39.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing RBs: the 7th-worst in football.. The Dolphins pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (90.2%) vs. running backs this year (90.2%).

-115 at BetMGM

Receiving Yards

Cade Otton o18.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 20.68 (Over)

Best Odds

o18.5 -110

Pick made: 9 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o20.5 -108

o18.5 -110

o20.5 -112

o18.5 -118

o20.5 -112

The Miami Dolphins defense has surrendered the 5th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (65.0) vs. tight ends this year.. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (78.8%) to TEs this year (78.8%).

-110 at bet365

Receiving Yards

De'Von Achane o27.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 29.89 (Over)

Best Odds

o26.5 -112

Pick made: 5 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o27.5 -109

o27.5 -110

o26.5 -112

o27.5 -118

o26.5 -118

A passing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a -5.5-point underdog this week.. De'Von Achane's 73.5% Route Participation% this year represents a significant boost in his passing attack volume over last year's 61.2% rate.. In this contest, De'Von Achane is predicted by the projections to finish in the 95th percentile among running backs with 5.8 targets.. De'Von Achane has notched a whopping 4.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile among RBs. (That may not seem like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).. The Buccaneers defense has yielded the most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (47.0) versus running backs this year.

-112 at FanDuel

Rushing Yards

Quinn Ewers o4.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

Projection 16.02 (Over)

Best Odds

o4.5 -112

Pick made: 5 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o4.5 -121

o6.5 -115

o4.5 -112

o6.5 -120

o4.5 -121

At the present time, the 4th-most run-heavy team in the NFL (44.4% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Dolphins.

-112 at FanDuel

Rushing Yards

Bucky Irving o61.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

Projection 66.4 (Over)

Best Odds

o61.5 -112

Pick made: 5 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o62.5 -113

o62.5 -110

o61.5 -112

o64.5 -115

o63.5 -115

The Buccaneers are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.. The projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 9th-most run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 45.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. This year, the weak Dolphins run defense has yielded a staggering 134.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 7th-most in the league.

-112 at FanDuel

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

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66% picking Tampa Bay

66% 66%

34% 34%

Total Picks TB 571, MIA 296

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60% picking Tampa Bay vs Miami to go Over

60% 60%

40% 40%

Total PicksTB 331, MIA 219

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Top User Picks

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'GodOfGambler64' picks Tampa Bay vs Miami to go Over (45.5)

GodOfGambler64 is #1 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +7200 units on the season.

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'GodOfGambler64' is picking Miami to cover (+6.0)

GodOfGambler64 is #1 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +7200 units on the season.

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'muna624' is picking Miami to cover (+5.0)

muna624 is #10 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (11-3-0) and +5050 units on the season.

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'muna624' picks Tampa Bay vs Miami to go Under (45.5)

muna624 is #10 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (11-3-0) and +5050 units on the season.

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'spiveytexas61' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (-5.0)

spiveytexas61 is #2 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (9-5-1) and +6100 units on the season.

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'Jackson2399' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (-5.0)

Jackson2399 is #2 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (12-3-0) and +6600 units on the season.

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'Jackson2399' picks Tampa Bay vs Miami to go Under (45.5)

Jackson2399 is #2 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (12-3-0) and +6600 units on the season.

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'spiveytexas61' picks Tampa Bay vs Miami to go Under (45.5)

spiveytexas61 is #2 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (9-5-1) and +6100 units on the season.

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'Guppy_Puppy' picks Tampa Bay vs Miami to go Over (45.0)

Guppy_Puppy is #3 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (6-4-0) and +6250 units on the season.

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'Guppy_Puppy' is picking Miami to cover (+5.0)

Guppy_Puppy is #3 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (6-4-0) and +6250 units on the season.

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'adamort22' is picking Miami to cover (+5.5)

adamort22 is #4 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (10-5-0) and +5550 units on the season.

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'Manning2008SB' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (-6.0)

Manning2008SB is #5 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (11-4-0) and +5550 units on the season.

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'Manning2008SB' picks Tampa Bay vs Miami to go Over (45.5)

Manning2008SB is #5 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (11-4-0) and +5550 units on the season.

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'ronebme' picks Tampa Bay vs Miami to go Under (45.5)

ronebme is #5 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (10-4-0) and +5600 units on the season.

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'ronebme' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (-6.0)

ronebme is #5 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (10-4-0) and +5600 units on the season.

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'dirtyharry57' picks Tampa Bay vs Miami to go Under (45.5)

dirtyharry57 is #6 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +5200 units on the season.

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'dirtyharry57' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (-6.0)

dirtyharry57 is #6 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +5200 units on the season.

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'Billiard770' picks Tampa Bay vs Miami to go Under (46.5)

Billiard770 is #7 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (7-1-1) and +4800 units on the season.

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'QDMC' picks Tampa Bay vs Miami to go Over (45.5)

QDMC is #7 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +5120 units on the season.

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'QDMC' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (-6.0)

QDMC is #7 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +5120 units on the season.

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'TwoDrunk2Bunt' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (-5.5)

TwoDrunk2Bunt is #8 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (9-4-0) and +5100 units on the season.

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'TwoDrunk2Bunt' picks Tampa Bay vs Miami to go Under (46.5)

TwoDrunk2Bunt is #8 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (9-4-0) and +5100 units on the season.

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'UnderrDog' is picking Miami to cover (+6.0)

UnderrDog is #8 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +4650 units on the season.

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'fttrdoyle' is picking Miami to cover (+5.0)

fttrdoyle is #9 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (11-1-0) and +4650 units on the season.

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'fttrdoyle' picks Tampa Bay vs Miami to go Under (45.0)

fttrdoyle is #9 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (11-1-0) and +4650 units on the season.

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'Skater4Life' picks Tampa Bay vs Miami to go Under (45.5)

Skater4Life is #9 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (12-3-0) and +5050 units on the season.

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'Skater4Life' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (-6.0)

Skater4Life is #9 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (12-3-0) and +5050 units on the season.

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