Miami Dolphins

3rd in AFC East (6 - 9 - 0)

Next Game

TBTampa Bay Tampa Bay
at
Miami MIAMiami
Sun, Dec 28 13:00 ET

TB @ MIA Picks

NFL Picks
Game Prop
Miami Dolphins logo o20.5 Team Total (+100)
Best Odds
o25.5 -113 FanDuel
Pick made: 11 hours ago
Jason Logan image
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst
o26.5  -110
o27.5  +120
o25.5  -113
 -
o26.5  -113

The Dolphins offense is much more versatile with Quinn Ewers under center. Before benching Tua, Miami was actively trying to keep the ball out of his hands. Ewers, however, threw for 260 yards last week – mark Tua had passed only twice all season. Tampa’s defense is dreadful and this once mighty run-stop unit is broken. Achane goes big. Ewers stretches the field. And the Bucs will be scoreboard watching. They could think about pulling their starters in the second half should they be up big and Carolina be down to Seattle, protecting themselves for a Week 18 NFC South title game.

Passing Yards
Baker Mayfield logo
Baker Mayfield u227.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Projection 218.41 (Under)
Best Odds
u227.5 -110 bet365
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 -
u227.5  -110
 -
u227.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
 -
The Buccaneers are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.. The leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect the Buccaneers to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game against the Dolphins defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.. Baker Mayfield's 187.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season represents an impressive decrease in his throwing proficiency over last season's 274.0 rate.
-110 at bet365
Passing Yards
Quinn Ewers logo
Quinn Ewers u205.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Projection 196.99 (Under)
Best Odds
u205.5 -110 bet365
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 -
u205.5  -110
 -
u205.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
 -
At the present time, the 4th-least pass-heavy team in the league (56.3% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Dolphins.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 123.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Dolphins have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 51.9 plays per game.. The Miami O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
-110 at bet365
Interceptions Thrown
Quinn Ewers logo
Quinn Ewers u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+120)
Projection 0.45 (Under)
Best Odds
u0.5 +120 bet365
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 -
u0.5  +120
 -
u0.5  +115
These are quick bet odds
 -
At the present time, the 4th-least pass-heavy team in the league (56.3% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Dolphins.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 123.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Dolphins have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 51.9 plays per game.. The Miami O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have intercepted 0.82 passes per game this year, ranking as the 10th-best defense in the NFL by this metric.
+120 at bet365
Receiving Yards
Darren Waller logo
Darren Waller o25.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 34.8 (Over)
Best Odds
o25.5 -110 bet365
Pick made: 11 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 -
o25.5  -110
 -
o25.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
 -
A passing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a -5.5-point underdog this week.. The Buccaneers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (35.5 per game) this year.. This week, Darren Waller is expected by the projections to find himself in the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.6 targets.. As it relates to air yards, Darren Waller ranks in the towering 96th percentile among TEs this year, totaling a whopping 46.0 per game.. Darren Waller ranks in the 92nd percentile among TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a massive 39.2 figure this year.
-110 at bet365
Receiving Yards
Jaylen Waddle logo
Jaylen Waddle o53.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 61.81 (Over)
Best Odds
o53.5 -110 bet365
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 -
o53.5  -110
 -
o53.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
 -
A passing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a -5.5-point underdog this week.. The Buccaneers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (35.5 per game) this year.. The predictive model expects Jaylen Waddle to total 7.8 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 88th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. Jaylen Waddle has accrued far more air yards this year (84.0 per game) than he did last year (56.0 per game).. Jaylen Waddle's 66.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 43.8.
-110 at bet365
Receiving Yards
Cade Otton logo
Cade Otton u21.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 19.85 (Under)
Best Odds
u21.5 -110 bet365
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 -
u21.5  -110
 -
u21.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
 -
The Buccaneers are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.. The leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect the Buccaneers to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game against the Dolphins defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.. Cade Otton's 29.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season represents a meaningful reduction in his receiving prowess over last season's 44.0 figure.
-110 at bet365

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Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.
Spread

69% picking Tampa Bay

69%
31%

Total Picks TB 214, MIA 95

Spread
TB
MIA
Spread
-5.5 -108
+6.5 -131

Top User Picks

More Picks

User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.
Spread

'adamort22' is picking Miami to cover (+5.5)

adamort22 is #4 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (10-5-0) and +5550 units on the season.

Spread
TB
MIA
Spread
-5.5 -108
+6.5 -131
Total

'Billiard770' picks Tampa Bay vs Miami to go Under (46.5)

Billiard770 is #7 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (7-1-1) and +4800 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -112
46.5 -121
Spread

'TwoDrunk2Bunt' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (-5.5)

TwoDrunk2Bunt is #8 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (9-4-0) and +5100 units on the season.

Spread
TB
MIA
Spread
-5.5 -108
+6.5 -131
Total

'TwoDrunk2Bunt' picks Tampa Bay vs Miami to go Under (46.5)

TwoDrunk2Bunt is #8 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (9-4-0) and +5100 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
45.5 -112
46.5 -121

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