Bills quarterback Josh Allen was No. 1 in deep pass attempts AND completions in 2022 and again is one of the most deep-ball-happy QBs this year. So far, Davis has seen a team-leading five targets of 20+ yards this season, has five catches of at least 17 yards in his last three games against the Miami Dolphins, and his total is six yards less than teammate Stefon Diggs. The Fins have also given up big plays to good offenses, with 10 completions of 17+ yards allowed in two games vs. Top-10 ranked pass attacks.
Murray is ahead of Damien Harris on the pecking order, sees a lot of his snaps near the goal line, and will face a Miami Dolphins defense that have given up 71 points on the season — ranking in the bottom half of the league. The Dolphins are allowing TDs in the red zone at a 64% clip, which is also a Bottom-10 mark. Miami has allowed seven offensive TDs this year and five of them have come on the one- or two-yard line. We're playing this until it goes below +200.
While the Dolphins offense is getting all the headlines, don’t sleep on Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. They’ve bounced back tremendously from that awful Week 1 performance by dropping 38 on the Raiders and 37 on the Commanders. They lead the NFL in third down conversion percentage while being tied for third in yards per rush attempt all while protecting Allen, as they’ve allowed the fifth-lowest pressure percentage.
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