Miami Dolphins

4th in AFC East (0 - 1 - 0)

Next Game

Sun, Sep 20 16:25 ET

MIA @ SF Picks

NFL Picks
Receptions Made
Mike Evans logo Mike Evans o3.5 Receptions Made (-130)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
Nick Galaida logo
Nick Galaida
Betting Analyst

Playable to 60%.

The 49ers took a 24-7 lead early in the fourth quarter against the Rams in Week 1, which led to a more conservative game script down the stretch than we would have seen in a more competitive contest. Still, Mike Evans managed six receptions on seven targets in his San Francisco debut, proving early in the season that he is the focal point of the team's passing attack. This is tremendous value in a favorable matchup.

Receiving Touchdowns
Mike Evans logo Mike Evans o0.5 Receiving Touchdowns (+135)
Nick Galaida logo
Nick Galaida
Betting Analyst

Playable to 40%.

Mike Evans caught one of Brock Purdy's three touchdown passes in Week 1 against the Rams. He tied for the team-lead in targets among wideouts and is San Francisco's best red zone target at 6-foot-5. Evans has caught 11+ touchdowns in six different NFL seasons since entering the league in 2014 and could be on his way to a seventh such campaign if he can stay healthy in 2026.

Total
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail o44.5 (-115)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
Nick Galaida logo
Nick Galaida
Betting Analyst

Playable to 54%.

In Week 1, Miami's defense struggled against a Las Vegas offense that started 38-year-old Kirk Cousins. The Dolphins had a league-worst 6.5% defensive pressure rate and allowed 143 rushing yards to Ashton Jeanty and Mike Washington Jr. out of the backfield. The net result was 27 points for the Raiders -- a team that scored 17 points or fewer in eight of their final nine regular season games in 2025.

The 49ers allowed only seven points in their season opener, but they benefited tremendously from the Rams being jet lagged after arriving in Australia shortly before kickoff. Still, San Francisco's defense didn't record a sack on 28 Los Angeles pass attempts, and their 22.2% quick pressure rate ranked 5th-worst among defenses for the week.

Both of these offenses should have time to operate in Week 2, which should lead to a higher-scoring affair.

Game Prop
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail o29.5 Team Total (-116)
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 hours ago
Joe Osborne logo
Joe Osborne
Senior Betting Analyst

This has bloodbath written all over it. Miami surrendered 27 points to a Raiders offense with nowhere near San Francisco’s firepower. The 49ers are fresh and already look locked in after hanging 27 on the Rams in Australia. Three more against this defense? Pretty damn reasonable. Miami’s offense should struggle to chew up clock, giving San Francisco plenty of chances to pile up the points.

Rushing Yards
Christian McCaffrey logo Christian McCaffrey o57.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

Christian McCaffrey can gash this Dolphins defense for big gains on the ground in Week 2. Miami was 24th in Run Defense DVOA in Week 1 and allowed 100+ yards to Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty. The Fins could be missing two starters on the defensive line and Run CMC has fresh legs with an extended break after thumping the Rams in Australia. He had only 10 carries in that one-side win due to cramping – giving way to rookie RB Kaelon Black - and even with game script calling for another 49ers blowout, projections sit north of 60+ yards with a ceiling of 68. My number comes out to 63 yards from McCaffrey on Sunday.

Anytime Touchdown
Demarcus Robinson logo Demarcus Robinson Score a Touchdown (Yes: +351)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Josh Inglis logo
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst

Everyone and their mom is likely looking to bet on Kaelon Black this weekend to score vs. the Dolphins, but I don't love his 3x price. I'd rather play him for last TD at 10.5x, but that seems pretty close to fair. The real value is with Demarcus Robinson, who played 91% of the snaps after rookie De'Zhaun Stribling exited. He's out long-term. The loss of Jake Tonges also opens some snaps for Robinson in a pass-catching group of oft-injured older players who might not respond well to the travel to Australia and back. Robinson is a buy to 3.8x and is the best-valued TD according to the Covers Anytime Touchdown Value Index, which hit its top-valued TD last week with Dallas Goedert.

Passing Yards
Malik Willis logo
Malik Willis o173.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Projection 197.09 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 31 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.. Malik Willis has been one of the most on-target quarterbacks in football since the start of last season with a fantastic 72.1% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 91st percentile.. Malik Willis has been one of the best per-play quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 10.36 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the 99th percentile.
Rushing Yards
Brock Purdy logo
Brock Purdy o10.5 Rushing Yards (-155)
Projection 21.47 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 19 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
With a 13-point advantage, the 49ers are a heavy favorite this week, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the 49ers to run on 48.2% of their chances: the 5th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Brock Purdy's rushing efficiency (6.20 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league since the start of last season (76th percentile among quarterbacks).. Since the start of last season, the anemic Dolphins run defense has surrendered a monstrous 141.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the 2nd-worst in the NFL.
Rushing Yards
De'Von Achane logo
De'Von Achane o58.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Projection 70.45 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The projections expect the Dolphins to be the 5th-most run-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 41.9% run rate.. Our trusted projections expect De'Von Achane to accrue 16.0 rush attempts this week, on balance, placing him in the 88th percentile among RBs.. De'Von Achane has received 63.2% of his team's rushing play calls since the start of last season, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.. De'Von Achane has grinded out 67.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the league among running backs (94th percentile).. With an impressive tally of 5.13 adjusted yards per carry (89th percentile), De'Von Achane stands among the best pure rushers in the NFL since the start of last season.
Rushing Yards
Christian McCaffrey logo
Christian McCaffrey o57.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Projection 61.58 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 31 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
With a 13-point advantage, the 49ers are a heavy favorite this week, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the 49ers to run on 48.3% of their chances: the 5th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Christian McCaffrey has generated 65.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among running backs (94th percentile).. Since the start of last season, the anemic Dolphins run defense has surrendered a monstrous 141.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the 2nd-worst in the NFL.
Receiving Yards
Greg Dulcich logo
Greg Dulcich o23.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 36.07 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13.5-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.. With a remarkable 52.4% Route Participation% (79th percentile) since the start of last season, Greg Dulcich stands among the TEs with the most usage in football.. In this contest, Greg Dulcich is expected by the predictive model to finish in the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.6 targets.. Greg Dulcich ranks as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among tight ends, catching a fantastic 83.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 91st percentile.
Receiving Yards
CD
Caleb Douglas o34.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 43.81 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 31 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13.5-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.
Receiving Yards
Malik Washington logo
Malik Washington o32.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 40.27 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.
Receiving Yards
Mike Evans logo
Mike Evans o49.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 54.28 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Our trusted projections expect Mike Evans to accumulate 6.5 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 79th percentile among WRs.. When it comes to air yards, Mike Evans ranks in the lofty 96th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, accruing a monstrous 101.0 per game.. Mike Evans's 59.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) ranks among the league leaders: 91st percentile for wide receivers.. With an exceptional 41.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (75th percentile) since the start of last season, Mike Evans has been as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL in the league.
Receiving Yards
Christian McCaffrey logo
Christian McCaffrey u40.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Projection 39.9 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 23 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
With a 13-point advantage, the 49ers are a heavy favorite this week, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 51.7% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have just 120.0 offensive plays run: the fewest out of all the games this week.. Christian McCaffrey's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 84.5% to 62.4%.. Christian McCaffrey's 2.3 adjusted yards per target this season represents a remarkable regression in his receiving ability over last season's 8.2 figure.
Receiving Yards
George Kittle logo
George Kittle o40.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Projection 43.83 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 31 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Our trusted projections expect George Kittle to accrue 4.8 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 78th percentile among TEs.. When talking about air yards, George Kittle grades out in the towering 95th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, averaging a staggering 44.0 per game.. George Kittle has been one of the best TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 45.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.. Since the start of last season, the anemic Dolphins defense has surrendered a massive 58.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the 7th-most in the NFL.

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

Spread

72% picking San Francisco

28%
72%

Total Picks MIA 230, SF 603

Spread
MIA
SF
Total

50% picking Miami vs San Francisco to go Under

50%
50%

Total PicksMIA 256, SF 256

Total
Over
Under

MIA @ SF · Props

GAME & PLAYER PROPS PROJECTIONS ANALYSIS BEST ODDS
SPREAD
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
MIA +13.5 spread
8.08 PROJECTION
-5.4 DIFFERENCE
22.04% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
MIA +13.5 spread

PROJECTION

8.08 PROJECTION
-5.4 DIFFERENCE
22.04% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

+13.5 -108
BetMGM logo
TOTAL
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
Over 44.5 Total
46.36 OVER PROJECTION
+1.9 DIFFERENCE
9.81% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
Over 44.5 Total

PROJECTION

46.36 OVER PROJECTION
+1.9 DIFFERENCE
9.81% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o44.5 -105
theScore Bet logo
PASSING YARDS
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o173.5 Passing Yards
197.09 OVER PROJECTION
+23.6 DIFFERENCE
25.54% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o173.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

197.09 OVER PROJECTION
+23.6 DIFFERENCE
25.54% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.. Malik Willis has been one of the most on-target quarterbacks in football since the start of last season with a fantastic 72.1% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 91st percentile.. Malik Willis has been one of the best per-play quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 10.36 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the 99th percentile.

o173.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o10.5 Rushing Yards
21.47 OVER PROJECTION
+11.0 DIFFERENCE
25.77% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o10.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

21.47 OVER PROJECTION
+11.0 DIFFERENCE
25.77% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 13-point advantage, the 49ers are a heavy favorite this week, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the 49ers to run on 48.2% of their chances: the 5th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Brock Purdy's rushing efficiency (6.20 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league since the start of last season (76th percentile among quarterbacks).. Since the start of last season, the anemic Dolphins run defense has surrendered a monstrous 141.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

o10.5 -155
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING YARDS
De'Von Achane logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
D. Achane (RB) o58.5 Rushing Yards
70.45 OVER PROJECTION
+11.9 DIFFERENCE
25.37% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
De'Von Achane logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
D. Achane (RB) o58.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

70.45 OVER PROJECTION
+11.9 DIFFERENCE
25.37% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Dolphins to be the 5th-most run-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 41.9% run rate.. Our trusted projections expect De'Von Achane to accrue 16.0 rush attempts this week, on balance, placing him in the 88th percentile among RBs.. De'Von Achane has received 63.2% of his team's rushing play calls since the start of last season, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.. De'Von Achane has grinded out 67.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the league among running backs (94th percentile).. With an impressive tally of 5.13 adjusted yards per carry (89th percentile), De'Von Achane stands among the best pure rushers in the NFL since the start of last season.

o54.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) o57.5 Rushing Yards
61.58 OVER PROJECTION
+4.1 DIFFERENCE
19.64% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) o57.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

61.58 OVER PROJECTION
+4.1 DIFFERENCE
19.64% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 13-point advantage, the 49ers are a heavy favorite this week, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the 49ers to run on 48.3% of their chances: the 5th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Christian McCaffrey has generated 65.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among running backs (94th percentile).. Since the start of last season, the anemic Dolphins run defense has surrendered a monstrous 141.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

o55.5 -145
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) o23.5 Receiving Yards
36.07 OVER PROJECTION
+12.6 DIFFERENCE
26.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) o23.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

36.07 OVER PROJECTION
+12.6 DIFFERENCE
26.18% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13.5-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.. With a remarkable 52.4% Route Participation% (79th percentile) since the start of last season, Greg Dulcich stands among the TEs with the most usage in football.. In this contest, Greg Dulcich is expected by the predictive model to finish in the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.6 targets.. Greg Dulcich ranks as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among tight ends, catching a fantastic 83.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 91st percentile.

o20.5 -135
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
MIA
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
C. Douglas (WR) o34.5 Receiving Yards
43.81 OVER PROJECTION
+9.3 DIFFERENCE
24.47% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
MIA
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
C. Douglas (WR) o34.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

43.81 OVER PROJECTION
+9.3 DIFFERENCE
24.47% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13.5-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.

o34.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Malik Washington logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Washington (WR) o32.5 Receiving Yards
40.27 OVER PROJECTION
+7.8 DIFFERENCE
23.82% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Malik Washington logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Washington (WR) o32.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

40.27 OVER PROJECTION
+7.8 DIFFERENCE
23.82% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.

o30.5 -135
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Mike Evans logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
M. Evans (WR) o49.5 Receiving Yards
54.28 OVER PROJECTION
+4.8 DIFFERENCE
21.44% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Mike Evans logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
M. Evans (WR) o49.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

54.28 OVER PROJECTION
+4.8 DIFFERENCE
21.44% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Our trusted projections expect Mike Evans to accumulate 6.5 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 79th percentile among WRs.. When it comes to air yards, Mike Evans ranks in the lofty 96th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, accruing a monstrous 101.0 per game.. Mike Evans's 59.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) ranks among the league leaders: 91st percentile for wide receivers.. With an exceptional 41.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (75th percentile) since the start of last season, Mike Evans has been as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL in the league.

o48.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) u40.5 Receiving Yards
39.90 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
19.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) u40.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

39.90 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
19.2% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 13-point advantage, the 49ers are a heavy favorite this week, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 51.7% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have just 120.0 offensive plays run: the fewest out of all the games this week.. Christian McCaffrey's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 84.5% to 62.4%.. Christian McCaffrey's 2.3 adjusted yards per target this season represents a remarkable regression in his receiving ability over last season's 8.2 figure.

u42.5 -118
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
George Kittle logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
G. Kittle (TE) o40.5 Receiving Yards
43.83 OVER PROJECTION
+3.3 DIFFERENCE
17.25% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
George Kittle logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
G. Kittle (TE) o40.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

43.83 OVER PROJECTION
+3.3 DIFFERENCE
17.25% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Our trusted projections expect George Kittle to accrue 4.8 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 78th percentile among TEs.. When talking about air yards, George Kittle grades out in the towering 95th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, averaging a staggering 44.0 per game.. George Kittle has been one of the best TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 45.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.. Since the start of last season, the anemic Dolphins defense has surrendered a massive 58.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the 7th-most in the NFL.

o38.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made
2.89 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
17.47% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.89 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
17.47% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.. With a remarkable 52.4% Route Participation% (79th percentile) since the start of last season, Greg Dulcich stands among the TEs with the most usage in football.. In this contest, Greg Dulcich is expected by the predictive model to finish in the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.3 targets.. Greg Dulcich ranks as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among tight ends, catching a fantastic 83.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 91st percentile.

o2.5 +135
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) u4.5 Receptions Made
4.32 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
11.57% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) u4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.32 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
11.57% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 13-point advantage, the 49ers are a heavy favorite this week, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 51.7% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have just 120.0 offensive plays run: the fewest out of all the games this week.. Christian McCaffrey's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 84.5% to 62.4%.. The Miami Dolphins linebackers profile as the best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

u4.5 -102
Caesars logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Malik Washington logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Washington (WR) o3.5 Receptions Made
3.63 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-1.65% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Malik Washington logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Washington (WR) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.63 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-1.65% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.

o3.5 +120
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Mike Evans logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
M. Evans (WR) o3.5 Receptions Made
3.82 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-7.88% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Mike Evans logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
M. Evans (WR) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.82 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-7.88% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Our trusted projections expect Mike Evans to accumulate 6.4 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 78th percentile among WRs.. Mike Evans's 59.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) ranks among the league leaders: 91st percentile for wide receivers.. Mike Evans has been one of the top pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 3.3 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 79th percentile.

o3.5 -123
BetRivers logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
George Kittle logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
G. Kittle (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made
3.58 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-14.33% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
George Kittle logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
G. Kittle (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.58 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-14.33% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Our trusted projections expect George Kittle to accrue 4.8 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 78th percentile among TEs.. George Kittle profiles as one of the leading TEs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 4.0 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 93rd percentile.. The Dolphins pass defense has yielded the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (79.1%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (79.1%).

o3.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
De'Von Achane logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
D. Achane (RB) o13.5 Rushing Attempts
15.12 OVER PROJECTION
+1.6 DIFFERENCE
19.85% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
De'Von Achane logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
D. Achane (RB) o13.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

15.12 OVER PROJECTION
+1.6 DIFFERENCE
19.85% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Dolphins to be the 5th-most run-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 41.9% run rate.. Our trusted projections expect De'Von Achane to accrue 16.0 rush attempts this week, on balance, placing him in the 88th percentile among RBs.. De'Von Achane has received 63.2% of his team's rushing play calls since the start of last season, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.. The San Francisco 49ers defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-worst unit in football since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

o13.5 -125
bet365 logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) o14.5 Rushing Attempts
14.92 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
10.58% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) o14.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

14.92 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
10.58% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 13-point advantage, the 49ers are a heavy favorite this week, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the 49ers to run on 48.2% of their chances: the 5th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Our trusted projections expect Christian McCaffrey to garner 15.7 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among RBs.

o14.5 -110
theScore Bet logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o27.5 Passing Attempts
28.50 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
10.14% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o27.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

28.50 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
10.14% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).

o27.5 +100
bet365 logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o26.5 Passing Attempts
28.12 OVER PROJECTION
+1.6 DIFFERENCE
9.61% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o26.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

28.12 OVER PROJECTION
+1.6 DIFFERENCE
9.61% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.

o26.5 -120
bet365 logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o16.5 Passing Completions
18.34 OVER PROJECTION
+1.8 DIFFERENCE
14.96% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o16.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

18.34 OVER PROJECTION
+1.8 DIFFERENCE
14.96% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.. Malik Willis has been one of the most on-target quarterbacks in football since the start of last season with a fantastic 72.1% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 91st percentile.

o16.5 -110
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o19.5 Passing Completions
20.48 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
4.47% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o19.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

20.48 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
4.47% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Brock Purdy profiles as one of the most accurate QBs in the league since the start of last season with an outstanding 70.7% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 94th percentile.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-highest clip in the league vs. the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season (74.3% Adjusted Completion%).

o19.5 -115
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Malik Washington logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Washington (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.24 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
22.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Malik Washington logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Washington (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.24 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
22.95% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.. Opposing teams have rushed for the 9th-fewest touchdowns in football (0.78 per game) against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season.

+515
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) Anytime Touchdown
1.24 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
22.67% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

1.24 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
22.67% EV

ANALYSIS

The 49ers rank as the 5th-most pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 80.0% red zone pass rate.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. With a remarkable 24.2% Red Zone Target Rate (100th percentile) since the start of last season, Christian McCaffrey places as one of the pass-game running backs with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the league.. When it comes to air yards, Christian McCaffrey grades out in the lofty 100th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, averaging an astounding 20.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).. Christian McCaffrey slots into the 100th percentile among running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) with a superb 40.8 figure since the start of last season.

-185
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
MIA
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
C. Douglas (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.21 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
19.32% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
MIA
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
C. Douglas (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.21 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
19.32% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13.5-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.. Opposing teams have rushed for the 9th-fewest touchdowns in football (0.78 per game) against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season.

+500
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.17 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.54% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.17 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.54% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.. Greg Dulcich has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 15.8% last year, which ranks him in the 76th percentile among tight ends.. Greg Dulcich has earned a whopping 8.0% of his team's air yards since the start of last season: 75th percentile when it comes to TEs.. Greg Dulcich's 24.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 77th percentile for tight ends.

+600
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.27 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
12.55% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.27 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
12.55% EV

ANALYSIS

The 49ers rank as the 5th-most pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 80.0% red zone pass rate.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Brock Purdy profiles as one of the most accurate QBs in the league since the start of last season with an outstanding 70.7% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 94th percentile.. With an excellent ratio of 1.77 per game (95th percentile), Brock Purdy ranks as one of the best touchdown throwers in football since the start of last season.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-highest clip in the league vs. the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season (74.3% Adjusted Completion%).

+335
BetRivers logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
De'Von Achane logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
D. Achane (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.42 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
2.62% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
De'Von Achane logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
D. Achane (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.42 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
2.62% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.. With an exceptional 18.6% Red Zone Target Share (96th percentile) last year, De'Von Achane stands as one of the pass-catching RBs with the most usage near the goal line in the league.. In regards to air yards, De'Von Achane grades out in the towering 95th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, accumulating a whopping 4.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more impressive than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).. De'Von Achane's 31.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) grades out among the league leaders: 98th percentile for RBs.

+150
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Mike Evans logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
M. Evans (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.4 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-0.51% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Mike Evans logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
M. Evans (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.4 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-0.51% EV

ANALYSIS

The 49ers rank as the 5th-most pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 80.0% red zone pass rate.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Mike Evans has been a big part of his team's offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 24.4% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to wideouts.. When it comes to air yards, Mike Evans ranks in the lofty 96th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, accruing a monstrous 101.0 per game.. Mike Evans's 59.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) ranks among the league leaders: 91st percentile for wide receivers.

+155
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
George Kittle logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
G. Kittle (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.3 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-6.29% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
George Kittle logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
G. Kittle (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.3 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-6.29% EV

ANALYSIS

The 49ers rank as the 5th-most pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 80.0% red zone pass rate.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. With an impressive 19.4% Red Zone Target% (90th percentile) since the start of last season, George Kittle rates among the TEs with the highest volume near the goal line in the league.. When talking about air yards, George Kittle grades out in the towering 95th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, averaging a staggering 44.0 per game.. George Kittle's 47.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 97th percentile for TEs.

+210
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.2 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-10.13% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.2 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-10.13% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.. Malik Willis has been one of the most on-target quarterbacks in football since the start of last season with a fantastic 72.1% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 91st percentile.. Opposing teams have rushed for the 9th-fewest touchdowns in football (0.78 per game) against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season.

+325
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.45 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
19.9% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.45 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
19.9% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-least pass-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.1% pass rate.. The projections expect the Dolphins to call the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.0 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The Dolphins have run the fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 51.4 plays per game.. Our trusted projections expect Malik Willis to attempt 29.8 passes in this game, on balance: the 4th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.. The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

u0.5 +109
Caesars logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.38 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
8.92% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.38 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
8.92% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 13-point advantage, the 49ers are a heavy favorite this week, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 51.7% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have just 120.0 offensive plays run: the fewest out of all the games this week.. This week, Brock Purdy is predicted by the projection model to wind up with the 5th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 30.4. . The Miami Dolphins linebackers profile as the best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

u0.5 -167
BetRivers logo
  • Proj. Diff: Low to High
  • Proj. Diff: High to Low
  • Proj. Rating: Low to High
  • Proj. Rating: High to Low
  • +EV: Low to High
  • +EV: High to Low
SPREAD
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
MIA +13.5 spread
8.08 PROJECTION
-5.4 DIFFERENCE
22.04% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
MIA +13.5 spread

PROJECTION

8.08 PROJECTION
-5.4 DIFFERENCE
22.04% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

+13.5 -108
BetMGM logo
TOTAL
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
Over 44.5 Total
46.36 OVER PROJECTION
+1.9 DIFFERENCE
9.81% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
Over 44.5 Total

PROJECTION

46.36 OVER PROJECTION
+1.9 DIFFERENCE
9.81% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o44.5 -105
theScore Bet logo
PASSING YARDS
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o173.5 Passing Yards
197.09 OVER PROJECTION
+23.6 DIFFERENCE
25.54% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o173.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

197.09 OVER PROJECTION
+23.6 DIFFERENCE
25.54% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.. Malik Willis has been one of the most on-target quarterbacks in football since the start of last season with a fantastic 72.1% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 91st percentile.. Malik Willis has been one of the best per-play quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 10.36 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the 99th percentile.

o173.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o10.5 Rushing Yards
21.47 OVER PROJECTION
+11.0 DIFFERENCE
25.77% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o10.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

21.47 OVER PROJECTION
+11.0 DIFFERENCE
25.77% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 13-point advantage, the 49ers are a heavy favorite this week, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the 49ers to run on 48.2% of their chances: the 5th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Brock Purdy's rushing efficiency (6.20 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league since the start of last season (76th percentile among quarterbacks).. Since the start of last season, the anemic Dolphins run defense has surrendered a monstrous 141.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

o10.5 -155
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING YARDS
De'Von Achane logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
D. Achane (RB) o58.5 Rushing Yards
70.45 OVER PROJECTION
+11.9 DIFFERENCE
25.37% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
De'Von Achane logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
D. Achane (RB) o58.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

70.45 OVER PROJECTION
+11.9 DIFFERENCE
25.37% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Dolphins to be the 5th-most run-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 41.9% run rate.. Our trusted projections expect De'Von Achane to accrue 16.0 rush attempts this week, on balance, placing him in the 88th percentile among RBs.. De'Von Achane has received 63.2% of his team's rushing play calls since the start of last season, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.. De'Von Achane has grinded out 67.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the league among running backs (94th percentile).. With an impressive tally of 5.13 adjusted yards per carry (89th percentile), De'Von Achane stands among the best pure rushers in the NFL since the start of last season.

o54.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) o57.5 Rushing Yards
61.58 OVER PROJECTION
+4.1 DIFFERENCE
19.64% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) o57.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

61.58 OVER PROJECTION
+4.1 DIFFERENCE
19.64% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 13-point advantage, the 49ers are a heavy favorite this week, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the 49ers to run on 48.3% of their chances: the 5th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Christian McCaffrey has generated 65.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among running backs (94th percentile).. Since the start of last season, the anemic Dolphins run defense has surrendered a monstrous 141.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

o55.5 -145
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) o23.5 Receiving Yards
36.07 OVER PROJECTION
+12.6 DIFFERENCE
26.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) o23.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

36.07 OVER PROJECTION
+12.6 DIFFERENCE
26.18% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13.5-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.. With a remarkable 52.4% Route Participation% (79th percentile) since the start of last season, Greg Dulcich stands among the TEs with the most usage in football.. In this contest, Greg Dulcich is expected by the predictive model to finish in the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.6 targets.. Greg Dulcich ranks as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among tight ends, catching a fantastic 83.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 91st percentile.

o20.5 -135
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
MIA
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
C. Douglas (WR) o34.5 Receiving Yards
43.81 OVER PROJECTION
+9.3 DIFFERENCE
24.47% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
MIA
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
C. Douglas (WR) o34.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

43.81 OVER PROJECTION
+9.3 DIFFERENCE
24.47% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13.5-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.

o34.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Malik Washington logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Washington (WR) o32.5 Receiving Yards
40.27 OVER PROJECTION
+7.8 DIFFERENCE
23.82% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Malik Washington logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Washington (WR) o32.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

40.27 OVER PROJECTION
+7.8 DIFFERENCE
23.82% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.

o30.5 -135
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Mike Evans logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
M. Evans (WR) o49.5 Receiving Yards
54.28 OVER PROJECTION
+4.8 DIFFERENCE
21.44% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Mike Evans logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
M. Evans (WR) o49.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

54.28 OVER PROJECTION
+4.8 DIFFERENCE
21.44% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Our trusted projections expect Mike Evans to accumulate 6.5 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 79th percentile among WRs.. When it comes to air yards, Mike Evans ranks in the lofty 96th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, accruing a monstrous 101.0 per game.. Mike Evans's 59.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) ranks among the league leaders: 91st percentile for wide receivers.. With an exceptional 41.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (75th percentile) since the start of last season, Mike Evans has been as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL in the league.

o48.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) u40.5 Receiving Yards
39.90 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
19.2% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) u40.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

39.90 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.6 DIFFERENCE
19.2% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 13-point advantage, the 49ers are a heavy favorite this week, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 51.7% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have just 120.0 offensive plays run: the fewest out of all the games this week.. Christian McCaffrey's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 84.5% to 62.4%.. Christian McCaffrey's 2.3 adjusted yards per target this season represents a remarkable regression in his receiving ability over last season's 8.2 figure.

u42.5 -118
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
George Kittle logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
G. Kittle (TE) o40.5 Receiving Yards
43.83 OVER PROJECTION
+3.3 DIFFERENCE
17.25% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
George Kittle logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
G. Kittle (TE) o40.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

43.83 OVER PROJECTION
+3.3 DIFFERENCE
17.25% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Our trusted projections expect George Kittle to accrue 4.8 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 78th percentile among TEs.. When talking about air yards, George Kittle grades out in the towering 95th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, averaging a staggering 44.0 per game.. George Kittle has been one of the best TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 45.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.. Since the start of last season, the anemic Dolphins defense has surrendered a massive 58.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the 7th-most in the NFL.

o38.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made
2.89 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
17.47% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) o2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.89 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
17.47% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.. With a remarkable 52.4% Route Participation% (79th percentile) since the start of last season, Greg Dulcich stands among the TEs with the most usage in football.. In this contest, Greg Dulcich is expected by the predictive model to finish in the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.3 targets.. Greg Dulcich ranks as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among tight ends, catching a fantastic 83.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 91st percentile.

o2.5 +135
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) u4.5 Receptions Made
4.32 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
11.57% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) u4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.32 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
11.57% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 13-point advantage, the 49ers are a heavy favorite this week, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 51.7% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have just 120.0 offensive plays run: the fewest out of all the games this week.. Christian McCaffrey's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 84.5% to 62.4%.. The Miami Dolphins linebackers profile as the best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

u4.5 -102
Caesars logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Malik Washington logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Washington (WR) o3.5 Receptions Made
3.63 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-1.65% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Malik Washington logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Washington (WR) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.63 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-1.65% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.

o3.5 +120
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Mike Evans logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
M. Evans (WR) o3.5 Receptions Made
3.82 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-7.88% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Mike Evans logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
M. Evans (WR) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.82 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
-7.88% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Our trusted projections expect Mike Evans to accumulate 6.4 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 78th percentile among WRs.. Mike Evans's 59.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) ranks among the league leaders: 91st percentile for wide receivers.. Mike Evans has been one of the top pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 3.3 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 79th percentile.

o3.5 -123
BetRivers logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
George Kittle logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
G. Kittle (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made
3.58 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-14.33% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
George Kittle logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
G. Kittle (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.58 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-14.33% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Our trusted projections expect George Kittle to accrue 4.8 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 78th percentile among TEs.. George Kittle profiles as one of the leading TEs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 4.0 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 93rd percentile.. The Dolphins pass defense has yielded the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (79.1%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (79.1%).

o3.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
De'Von Achane logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
D. Achane (RB) o13.5 Rushing Attempts
15.12 OVER PROJECTION
+1.6 DIFFERENCE
19.85% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
De'Von Achane logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
D. Achane (RB) o13.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

15.12 OVER PROJECTION
+1.6 DIFFERENCE
19.85% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Dolphins to be the 5th-most run-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 41.9% run rate.. Our trusted projections expect De'Von Achane to accrue 16.0 rush attempts this week, on balance, placing him in the 88th percentile among RBs.. De'Von Achane has received 63.2% of his team's rushing play calls since the start of last season, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.. The San Francisco 49ers defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-worst unit in football since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

o13.5 -125
bet365 logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) o14.5 Rushing Attempts
14.92 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
10.58% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) o14.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

14.92 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
10.58% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 13-point advantage, the 49ers are a heavy favorite this week, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the 49ers to run on 48.2% of their chances: the 5th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Our trusted projections expect Christian McCaffrey to garner 15.7 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among RBs.

o14.5 -110
theScore Bet logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o27.5 Passing Attempts
28.50 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
10.14% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o27.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

28.50 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
10.14% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).

o27.5 +100
bet365 logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o26.5 Passing Attempts
28.12 OVER PROJECTION
+1.6 DIFFERENCE
9.61% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o26.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

28.12 OVER PROJECTION
+1.6 DIFFERENCE
9.61% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.

o26.5 -120
bet365 logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o16.5 Passing Completions
18.34 OVER PROJECTION
+1.8 DIFFERENCE
14.96% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) o16.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

18.34 OVER PROJECTION
+1.8 DIFFERENCE
14.96% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.. Malik Willis has been one of the most on-target quarterbacks in football since the start of last season with a fantastic 72.1% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 91st percentile.

o16.5 -110
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o19.5 Passing Completions
20.48 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
4.47% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) o19.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

20.48 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
4.47% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Brock Purdy profiles as one of the most accurate QBs in the league since the start of last season with an outstanding 70.7% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 94th percentile.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-highest clip in the league vs. the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season (74.3% Adjusted Completion%).

o19.5 -115
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Malik Washington logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Washington (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.24 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
22.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Malik Washington logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Washington (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.24 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
22.95% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.. Opposing teams have rushed for the 9th-fewest touchdowns in football (0.78 per game) against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season.

+515
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) Anytime Touchdown
1.24 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
22.67% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Christian McCaffrey logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
C. McCaffrey (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

1.24 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
22.67% EV

ANALYSIS

The 49ers rank as the 5th-most pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 80.0% red zone pass rate.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. With a remarkable 24.2% Red Zone Target Rate (100th percentile) since the start of last season, Christian McCaffrey places as one of the pass-game running backs with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the league.. When it comes to air yards, Christian McCaffrey grades out in the lofty 100th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, averaging an astounding 20.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).. Christian McCaffrey slots into the 100th percentile among running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) with a superb 40.8 figure since the start of last season.

-185
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
MIA
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
C. Douglas (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.21 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
19.32% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
MIA
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
C. Douglas (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.21 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
19.32% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13.5-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.. Opposing teams have rushed for the 9th-fewest touchdowns in football (0.78 per game) against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season.

+500
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.17 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.54% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Greg Dulcich logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
G. Dulcich (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.17 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.54% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.. Greg Dulcich has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 15.8% last year, which ranks him in the 76th percentile among tight ends.. Greg Dulcich has earned a whopping 8.0% of his team's air yards since the start of last season: 75th percentile when it comes to TEs.. Greg Dulcich's 24.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 77th percentile for tight ends.

+600
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.27 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
12.55% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.27 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
12.55% EV

ANALYSIS

The 49ers rank as the 5th-most pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 80.0% red zone pass rate.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Brock Purdy profiles as one of the most accurate QBs in the league since the start of last season with an outstanding 70.7% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 94th percentile.. With an excellent ratio of 1.77 per game (95th percentile), Brock Purdy ranks as one of the best touchdown throwers in football since the start of last season.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-highest clip in the league vs. the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season (74.3% Adjusted Completion%).

+335
BetRivers logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
De'Von Achane logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
D. Achane (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.42 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
2.62% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
De'Von Achane logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
D. Achane (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.42 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
2.62% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.. With an exceptional 18.6% Red Zone Target Share (96th percentile) last year, De'Von Achane stands as one of the pass-catching RBs with the most usage near the goal line in the league.. In regards to air yards, De'Von Achane grades out in the towering 95th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, accumulating a whopping 4.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more impressive than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).. De'Von Achane's 31.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) grades out among the league leaders: 98th percentile for RBs.

+150
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Mike Evans logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
M. Evans (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.4 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-0.51% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Mike Evans logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
M. Evans (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.4 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-0.51% EV

ANALYSIS

The 49ers rank as the 5th-most pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 80.0% red zone pass rate.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Mike Evans has been a big part of his team's offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 24.4% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to wideouts.. When it comes to air yards, Mike Evans ranks in the lofty 96th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, accruing a monstrous 101.0 per game.. Mike Evans's 59.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) ranks among the league leaders: 91st percentile for wide receivers.

+155
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
George Kittle logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
G. Kittle (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.3 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-6.29% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
George Kittle logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
G. Kittle (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.3 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-6.29% EV

ANALYSIS

The 49ers rank as the 5th-most pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 80.0% red zone pass rate.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. With an impressive 19.4% Red Zone Target% (90th percentile) since the start of last season, George Kittle rates among the TEs with the highest volume near the goal line in the league.. When talking about air yards, George Kittle grades out in the towering 95th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, averaging a staggering 44.0 per game.. George Kittle's 47.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 97th percentile for TEs.

+210
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.2 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-10.13% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.2 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-10.13% EV

ANALYSIS

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.. Malik Willis has been one of the most on-target quarterbacks in football since the start of last season with a fantastic 72.1% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 91st percentile.. Opposing teams have rushed for the 9th-fewest touchdowns in football (0.78 per game) against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season.

+325
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.45 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
19.9% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
Malik Willis logo
Miami Dolphins image thumbnail
M. Willis (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.45 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
19.9% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-least pass-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.1% pass rate.. The projections expect the Dolphins to call the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.0 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The Dolphins have run the fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 51.4 plays per game.. Our trusted projections expect Malik Willis to attempt 29.8 passes in this game, on balance: the 4th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.. The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

u0.5 +109
Caesars logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.38 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
8.92% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Brock Purdy logo
San Francisco 49ers image thumbnail
B. Purdy (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.38 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
8.92% EV

ANALYSIS

With a 13-point advantage, the 49ers are a heavy favorite this week, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 51.7% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have just 120.0 offensive plays run: the fewest out of all the games this week.. This week, Brock Purdy is predicted by the projection model to wind up with the 5th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 30.4. . The Miami Dolphins linebackers profile as the best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

u0.5 -167
BetRivers logo

Top User Picks

More Picks

User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.

Spread

'grandpa9494' is picking San Francisco to cover (-12.5)

grandpa9494 is #1 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Spread
MIA
SF
Spread

'MRPEMSTAR' is picking San Francisco to cover (-12.5)

MRPEMSTAR is #1 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Spread
MIA
SF
Total

'grandpa9494' picks Miami vs San Francisco to go Under (44.5)

grandpa9494 is #1 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Spread

'rhythmpants' is picking San Francisco to cover (-10.5)

rhythmpants is #10 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Spread
MIA
SF
Total

'rhythmpants' picks Miami vs San Francisco to go Under (44.5)

rhythmpants is #10 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total

'bostonutah' picks Miami vs San Francisco to go Over (44.5)

bostonutah is #10 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Spread

'bostonutah' is picking San Francisco to cover (-13.5)

bostonutah is #10 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Spread
MIA
SF
Total

'THEPERCHMAN' picks Miami vs San Francisco to go Under (45.5)

THEPERCHMAN is #2 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Spread

'THEPERCHMAN' is picking San Francisco to cover (-13.5)

THEPERCHMAN is #2 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Spread
MIA
SF
Total

'Cheezer69' picks Miami vs San Francisco to go Over (44.5)

Cheezer69 is #2 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Spread

'Cheezer69' is picking San Francisco to cover (-13.5)

Cheezer69 is #2 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Spread
MIA
SF
Total

'CJONES1068' picks Miami vs San Francisco to go Over (46.5)

CJONES1068 is #3 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Spread

'CJONES1068' is picking Miami to cover (+13.5)

CJONES1068 is #3 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Spread
MIA
SF
Spread

'Patrick9' is picking San Francisco to cover (-10.5)

Patrick9 is #4 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Spread
MIA
SF
Total

'Patrick9' picks Miami vs San Francisco to go Under (46.5)

Patrick9 is #4 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total

'hobo' picks Miami vs San Francisco to go Over (44.5)

hobo is #4 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Spread

'hobo' is picking San Francisco to cover (-13.5)

hobo is #4 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Spread
MIA
SF
Total

'IslandBetter' picks Miami vs San Francisco to go Under (44.5)

IslandBetter is #5 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total

'T-MAC4ALL' picks Miami vs San Francisco to go Under (44.5)

T-MAC4ALL is #5 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Spread

'IslandBetter' is picking San Francisco to cover (-13.5)

IslandBetter is #5 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Spread
MIA
SF
Spread

'T-MAC4ALL' is picking Miami to cover (+13.5)

T-MAC4ALL is #5 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Spread
MIA
SF
Total

'cpg233' picks Miami vs San Francisco to go Over (46.5)

cpg233 is #6 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Spread

'cpg233' is picking San Francisco to cover (-12.5)

cpg233 is #6 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Spread
MIA
SF
Spread

'vegasbet03' is picking San Francisco to cover (-13.5)

vegasbet03 is #6 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Spread
MIA
SF
Total

'vegasbet03' picks Miami vs San Francisco to go Over (44.5)

vegasbet03 is #6 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Spread

'Destiny09' is picking San Francisco to cover (-13.5)

Destiny09 is #7 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Spread
MIA
SF
Total

'Destiny09' picks Miami vs San Francisco to go Under (44.5)

Destiny09 is #7 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Spread

'deerkiller' is picking San Francisco to cover (-12.5)

deerkiller is #8 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Spread
MIA
SF
Total

'deerkiller' picks Miami vs San Francisco to go Under (46.5)

deerkiller is #8 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total

'Sammy2015' picks Miami vs San Francisco to go Under (45.5)

Sammy2015 is #9 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Spread

'Sammy2015' is picking San Francisco to cover (-13.5)

Sammy2015 is #9 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.

Spread
MIA
SF

Pages Related to This Topic