Miami Dolphins

Picks

Cook scored 21 touchdowns (19 rushing and two receiving) in 19 total games last season. This year, he has rushed for 176 yards and three scores through two games. The Dolphins are last in the league in defensive EPA and have surrendered more than 30 points in back-to-back games against the Colts and Patriots. If they couldn't stop those middling offenses, they won't be able to stop a highly-efficient Bills attack. Cook's "anytime TD" price is juiced to -170 but with the Bills RB punching it into the endzone in 14 of his last 17 games (82.4%), that's still great value on an implied probability of 63%. 

Buffalo's defense was fantastic last week  but was torched in Week 1 and ranked last in the NFL in defensive dropback success rate after Week 9 last year. Buffalo's secondary is extremely banged-up at CB and surrendered 143 receiving yards and a TD to Zay Flowers in Week 1. That weakness could be exploited by the Dolphins and WR Tyreek Hill. Hill racked up 1,799 receiving yards and 13 TDs in 2023, before being limited to six scores last year. The five-time All-Pro is still a dangerous weapon which he proved last week by hauling in six catches for 109 yards. Hill had a 47-yard reception that he likely would have scored on if Tua Tagovailoa hadn't underthrown the ball. 

Achane saw a team-high 10 targets last week, reeling in eight of them for 92 yards. Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel loves to use his running backs in the passing game and Achane racked up 78 receptions last year. It's worth noting that Achane averaged just 1.8 receptions per game in the six contests where Tua Tagovailoa was sidelined but averaged 6.1 receptions per game with Miami's franchise QB under center. Achane saw a ton of usage against the Bills last year, grabbing seven receptions in Week 2 and piling up eight catches in Week 9. Buffalo's defense has been susceptible to pass-catching backs and the Dolphins should be throwing a ton in this game since they are 11.5-point road underdogs.

Allen has thrown just one interception in his last 10 games. The reigning NFL MVP does a great job of limiting risky throws and he shouldn't be airing it out much in this game since the Bills are 11.5-point home favorites. Miami ranks last in the league in coverage grade per PFF while also ranking last in defensive dropback EPA. The Dolphins have yet to intercept a pass this year and they have the sixth-fewest passes defended (6). 

Through two games, the Dolphins have gotten destroyed through the air against opposing running backs, allowing 146 total receiving yards to Colts' and Patriots' RBs. They're allowing these short passes for big gains as well – an average of 13.2 yards per catch – so don't be shocked if all it takes is one catch. Cook has had success topping this mark vs Miami, reaching at least 16 receiving yards in his last four games against them.  

Buffalo has two talented tight ends but Kincaid is being utilized the most in the passing game, both in terms of routes and targets and Dawson Knox has bad drops in Week 2. Kincaid has caught 8 of 10 balls his way, putting up 48 yards in Week 1 and 37 yards in Week 2. Miami has given up yards to tight ends through two games and Kincaid had 30+ receiving yards in both matchups with Miami last year. Projections for TNF sit as high as 36 yards. 

Allen has rushed for 89 yards through two games, and the Dolphins have allowed opposing quarterbacks to pile up 57 yards on the ground after two weeks. This is also a short turnaround for a reeling Miami defense that has allowed the highest EPA per play while ranking fifth last in DVOA and third last in PFF defense grade.