Miami Dolphins

Picks

The Commanders have been a disaster, losing four straight by 20+ points and giving up 179 total points during their five-game skid. Miami could be in a slight letdown spot after their emotional win over Buffalo, but the Dolphins should still be able to move the ball with ease here. Malik Washington has scored in two of his last three games and continues to get designed touches, including four carries over his last two outings. He was also the only WR/TE to see a red-zone target last week, which keeps him firmly in play for another touchdown. With Ollie Gordon limited early in the week due to an ankle issue, Washington could see more red-zone work. I’m taking this at +180.

The Dolphins own an identical 3-7 record as Washington but ride high into Santiago Bernabéu off the franchise’s biggest win in years. Miami stunned the rival Bills 30-13 at home last Sunday, setting up a looming letdown spot on international turf. The Fins are known to flop, putting up a 2-7 SU/ATS record off a win over the past two seasons, and Fins coach Mike McDaniel is generating some bad juju with his drive-by trolling of Buffalo fans last Sunday. "Schadenfreude" is a German term, but karma knows no borders. McDaniel might not have a flight home from Spain if he doesn’t win, given a Week 12 bye is the ideal time to drop the ax on the underperforming coach. This is a classic buy low, sell high spot with two comparable teams playing in a strange setting. And with Washington head coach Dan Quinn taking over play calling for the defense, we could see a “Dead Cat” bounce from the Commanders’ sluggish stop unit.

This is the first time the NFL has ventured to Madrid, and they’re giving the Spanish crowds a solid matchup — if Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy enough to see Week 11. The dark cloud hovering over this one is the grass surface inside Santiago Bernabeu Stadium. That sod was replaced four times during Real Madrid’s most recent La Liga campaign, which was marred by injuries. Many are pointing to the integrity of the hybrid surface as the reason for all those ailments. A shitty field could slow down both the Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins offenses. I’ll go Under 49.5 points.