Miami Dolphins
Picks

3rd in AFC East (6 - 8 - 0)

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at

Sun, Dec 21 13:00 ET

CIN @ MIA Picks

Passing Yards

Joe Burrow o256.5 Passing Yards (-111)

Projection 276.1 (Over)

Best Odds

o256.5 -111

Pick made: 7 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o256.5 -111

o258.5 -110

o258.5 -114

o257.5 -115

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 64.0% of their plays: the 3rd-highest rate among all teams this week.. The model projects Joe Burrow to attempt 36.5 passes in this week's game, on average: the 8th-most out of all QBs.. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 5th-highest clip in the NFL against the Dolphins defense this year (74.2% Adjusted Completion%).

-111 at DraftKings

Passing Yards

Tua Tagovailoa o218.5 Passing Yards (-113)

Projection 230.81 (Over)

Best Odds

o218.5 -113

Pick made: 9 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o218.5 -113

o219.5 -110

o218.5 -114

o218.5 -115

Opposing offenses have thrown for the 4th-most adjusted yards in football (260.0 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.. The Bengals pass defense has displayed bad efficiency this year, conceding 8.86 adjusted yards-per-target: the 2nd-most in the league.. The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in the league this year in defending receivers.

-113 at DraftKings

Interceptions Thrown

Tua Tagovailoa u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+120)

Projection 0.42 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: 9 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dolphins to pass on 55.0% of their opportunities: the 11th-lowest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to see just 121.9 total plays run: the lowest number among all games this week.. The Miami Dolphins have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 48.6 plays per game.. Our trusted projections expect Tua Tagovailoa to throw 32.0 passes this week, on balance: the 9th-fewest among all QBs.. Cincinnati's defense profiles as the 6th-best in football this year as it relates to generating interceptions, averaging 0.88 per game.

+120 at DraftKings

Interceptions Thrown

Joe Burrow u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-110)

Projection 0.39 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: 7 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are forecasted by the predictive model to run just 60.5 plays on offense in this contest: the lowest number on the slate this week.. Opposing offenses have averaged 29.2 pass attempts per game versus the Dolphins defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.. The Cincinnati O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all air attack stats across the board.. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Miami's collection of safeties has been great this year, ranking as the 8th-best in football.

-110 at DraftKings

Receiving Yards

De'Von Achane o28.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 39.48 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

De'Von Achane's 81.0% Route% this year marks a significant progression in his passing offense utilization over last year's 61.2% mark.. In this game, De'Von Achane is anticipated by our trusted projection set to slot into the 98th percentile among RBs with 6.7 targets.. As it relates to air yards, De'Von Achane ranks in the towering 92nd percentile among running backs this year, accruing a remarkable 3.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).. The Cincinnati Bengals defense has given up the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (43.0) versus running backs this year.. This year, the porous Cincinnati Bengals defense has yielded the 2nd-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing RBs: a monstrous 8.07 yards.

Receiving Yards

Jaylen Waddle o59.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 68.74 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

In this week's game, Jaylen Waddle is projected by the model to position himself in the 89th percentile among WRs with 8.1 targets.. After accumulating 56.0 air yards per game last year, Jaylen Waddle has posted big gains this year, now averaging 78.0 per game.. Jaylen Waddle's 65.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 43.8.. Jaylen Waddle comes in as one of the top wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging a fantastic 54.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.. With an impressive 9.5 adjusted yards per target (88th percentile) this year, Jaylen Waddle rates as one of the top WRs in the NFL in the league.

Consensus Picks

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Consensus Picks

Top User Picks

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'GodOfGambler64' is picking Cincinnati to cover (+1.5)

GodOfGambler64 is #2 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (8-3-0) and +6200 units on the season.

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CIN

MIA

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'ChOmP' picks Cincinnati vs Miami to go Over (50.5)

ChOmP is #3 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (10-1-0) and +6200 units on the season.

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'spiveytexas61' is picking Cincinnati to cover (-1.0)

spiveytexas61 is #3 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (9-4-1) and +6150 units on the season.

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CIN

MIA

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'spiveytexas61' picks Cincinnati vs Miami to go Under (50.0)

spiveytexas61 is #3 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (9-4-1) and +6150 units on the season.

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Under

Total

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'rinv49' is picking Miami to cover (+1.5)

rinv49 is #6 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +5320 units on the season.

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CIN

MIA

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'rinv49' picks Cincinnati vs Miami to go Over (50.5)

rinv49 is #6 on picking games that Cincinnati is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +5320 units on the season.

Total

Over

Under

Total

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'adgadg222' is picking Miami to cover (+1.5)

adgadg222 is #6 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (10-4-0) and +4880 units on the season.

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CIN

MIA

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'adgadg222' picks Cincinnati vs Miami to go Under (50.5)

adgadg222 is #6 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (10-4-0) and +4880 units on the season.

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Over

Under

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