Miami Dolphins Picks

Pick made: 4 hours ago

o36.5 -109

o35.5 -114

o35.5 -115

Bijan Robinson has eclipsed his receiving yards total in every game this season but books still haven't adjusted. He's coming off a contest against San Fran where he reeled in six catches for 52 yards and he has now racked up 39+ receiving yards in five of six games this year. The Pro Bowl running back is 22nd in the league in receiving yards per game (65.0). He's on pace to break the NFL record for receiving yards in a season by a RB although Christian McCaffrey is on pace to do even better. He should feast against a Dolphins D that is 26th in the league in receiving yards per game (41.3) allowed to RBs while ranking 29th in DVOA against the position.

Score a Touchdown

Tyler Allgeier Score a Touchdown (Yes: +150)

Best Odds

+150

Pick made: 15 hours ago

+135

+150

+135

The Falcons want to lighten the load for Robinson and OC Zac Robinson wants to get Allgeier more touches after a very quiet game in Week 7. Miami is horrible - everywhere - but especially rotten versus the run. The Falcons are sizable home favorites and Allgeier has scored a touchdown in each of the Falcons' three wins this season. The Dolphins have allowed 1.3 rushing TDs per game on the year, including three in the loss to Cleveland last week.

Rushing Attempts

Tyler Allgeier o9.5 Rushing Attempts (+100)

Best Odds

o9.5 +105

Pick made: 16 hours ago

o9.5 +105

Robinson is the Falcons’ clear RB1 but with Atlanta likely rolling over the dreadful Dolphins, expect the offense to turn to RB2 Tyler Allgeier to help secure the win and control possession in the second half. Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson said they want to keep getting Allgeier touches and couldn’t last week due to playing from behind vs. San Francisco. Miami ranks among the bottom 10 run defenses in the NFL and projections for Allgeier are flirting with 10 carries, which could be modest considering game script. He’s had 10 or more carries in four of his six games so far, including 16 attempts in one-sided wins over Washington and Minnesota.

Score a Touchdown

Kyle Pitts Sr. Score a Touchdown (Yes: +190)

Best Odds

+240

Pick made: yesterday

+175

+240

+190

+185

This is a strong matchup for Kyle Pitts, who’s tied for the team lead with two red-zone targets over the last two games. Since Week 3, only Pitts and Drake London have seen any targets near the goal line among Atlanta's WRs and TEs. The passing offense isn’t elite, which is why this grades out as a B-, and the price has been better in past weeks — but with just four real options in this offense, Pitts has a consistent role. He tied for the team lead with 10 targets last week, and the return of Darnell Mooney appears to be impacting London more than Pitts. I wouldn’t play this below +175, but Mooney at +300 also has some value in this spot.

Score a Touchdown

Tanner Conner Score a Touchdown (Yes: +600)

Projection 0.19 (Yes)

Best Odds

+600

Pick made: 15 hours ago

EV Model Rating

+500

+550

+600

+550

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are big underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dolphins to pass on 62.7% of their plays: the 2nd-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 59.6% red zone pass rate.. The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.. After accumulating 8.0 air yards per game last season, Tanner Conner has gotten better this season, now pacing 15.0 per game.

+600 at FanDuel

Passing Attempts

Tua Tagovailoa u31.5 Passing Attempts (-106)

Projection 29.01 (Under)

Best Odds

u31.5 -106

Pick made: 2 days ago

EV Model Rating

u31.5 -118

u31.5 -106

u30.5 +100

u31.5 -127

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Miami Dolphins are predicted by the model to call only 61.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.. The 3rd-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (only 50.4 per game on average).. Our trusted projections expect Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 36.3 passes this week, on balance: the 8th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Atlanta Falcons, averaging the fewest attempts in football (a measly 27.2 per game) this year.

-106 at FanDuel

Passing Yards

Michael Penix Jr. o216.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Projection 236.61 (Over)

Best Odds

o216.5 -114

Pick made: 2 days ago

EV Model Rating

o220.5 -111

o216.5 -114

o220.5 -115

o217.5 -115

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.2 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest clip in the league against the Miami Dolphins defense this year (78.6% Adjusted Completion%).. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency this year, allowing 8.39 adjusted yards-per-target: the 5th-most in the league.

Passing Yards

Tua Tagovailoa o196.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Projection 207.43 (Over)

Best Odds

o196.5 -113

Pick made: 9 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o196.5 -113

o196.5 -114

o205.5 +105

o197.5 -105

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are big underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dolphins to pass on 62.8% of their plays: the 2nd-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.. When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Atlanta's unit has been easily exploitable this year, profiling as the 5th-worst in football.

-113 at DraftKings

Interceptions Thrown

Tua Tagovailoa u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+136)

Projection 0.42 (Under)

Best Odds

u0.5 +136

Pick made: 2 days ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +110

u0.5 +136

u0.5 +115

u0.5 +107

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Miami Dolphins are predicted by the model to call only 61.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.. The 3rd-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (only 50.4 per game on average).. Our trusted projections expect Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 36.3 passes this week, on balance: the 8th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Atlanta Falcons, averaging the fewest attempts in football (a measly 27.2 per game) this year.. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Dolphins ranks as the worst in the NFL this year.

+136 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

De'Von Achane o30.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Projection 42.2 (Over)

Best Odds

o30.5 -114

Pick made: 9 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o30.5 -114

o32.5 -118

o31.5 -120

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are big underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dolphins to pass on 62.8% of their plays: the 2nd-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.. The leading projections forecast De'Von Achane to accrue 7.5 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 99th percentile among RBs.. De'Von Achane's 21.0% Target Share this season signifies a remarkable gain in his air attack usage over last season's 15.3% figure.

Receiving Yards

Drake London o63.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Projection 75.21 (Over)

Best Odds

o63.5 -114

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

o65.5 -113

o63.5 -114

o65.5 -115

o64.5 -117

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.2 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. The leading projections forecast Drake London to earn 8.5 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among wideouts.. With an impressive 30.6% Target% (96th percentile) this year, Drake London ranks as one of the wideouts with the biggest workloads in the league.. The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Receiving Yards

Jaylen Waddle o61.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Projection 69.71 (Over)

Best Odds

o61.5 -114

Pick made: 2 days ago

EV Model Rating

o62.5 -114

o61.5 -114

o62.5 -110

o61.5 -118

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are big underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their normal game plan.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dolphins to pass on 62.7% of their plays: the 2nd-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.. The model projects Jaylen Waddle to earn 8.8 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among wideouts.. While Jaylen Waddle has been responsible for 19.3% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more integral piece of Miami's pass game in this week's contest at 25.0%.

Receiving Yards

Bijan Robinson o35.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Projection 39.13 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 12 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o36.5 -109

o35.5 -114

o35.5 -115

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.2 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. In this week's contest, Bijan Robinson is projected by the projection model to rank in the 98th percentile among RBs with 6.1 targets.. Bijan Robinson has accrued far more air yards this season (9.0 per game) than he did last season (-1.0 per game).. Bijan Robinson's 33.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 21.9.

-160 at BetMGM

Rushing Yards

Bijan Robinson u90.5 Rushing Yards (-111)

Projection 70.84 (Under)

Best Odds

u90.5 -111

Pick made: 9 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u90.5 -111

u88.5 -114

u90.5 -115

u90.5 -112

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 123.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. Bijan Robinson's 69.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season represents a remarkable reduction in his running proficiency over last season's 81.0 mark.

-111 at DraftKings

Consensus Picks

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71% picking Atlanta

29% 29%

71% 71%

Total Picks MIA 237, ATL 569

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ATL

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Top User Picks

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'money455' picks Miami vs Atlanta to go Under (46.5)

money455 is #1 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (6-0-0) and +4950 units on the season.

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'money455' is picking Miami to cover (+5.5)

money455 is #1 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (6-0-0) and +4950 units on the season.

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ATL

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'joebatters' picks Miami vs Atlanta to go Under (45.5)

joebatters is #1 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (6-0-0) and +4950 units on the season.

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'joebatters' is picking Miami to cover (+6.0)

joebatters is #1 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (6-0-0) and +4950 units on the season.

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MIA

ATL

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'stakay125' is picking Atlanta to cover (-5.5)

stakay125 is #10 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (4-2-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'stakay125' picks Miami vs Atlanta to go Under (46.5)

stakay125 is #10 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (4-2-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'tkeeton' picks Miami vs Atlanta to go Under (44.5)

tkeeton is #3 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (6-0-0) and +4450 units on the season.

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'tkeeton' is picking Atlanta to cover (-7.5)

tkeeton is #3 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (6-0-0) and +4450 units on the season.

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'DogKick' picks Miami vs Atlanta to go Over (44.5)

DogKick is #4 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +4450 units on the season.

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'DogKick' is picking Miami to cover (+7.5)

DogKick is #4 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +4450 units on the season.

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ATL

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'thumpmanspurfan' is picking Atlanta to cover (-7.5)

thumpmanspurfan is #5 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (4-1-0) and +3950 units on the season.

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'thumpmanspurfan' picks Miami vs Atlanta to go Over (45.5)

thumpmanspurfan is #5 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (4-1-0) and +3950 units on the season.

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'gophishn' picks Miami vs Atlanta to go Under (44.5)

gophishn is #5 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'gophishn' is picking Atlanta to cover (-7.0)

gophishn is #5 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'KingCasanova' picks Miami vs Atlanta to go Under (46.5)

KingCasanova is #6 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'KingCasanova' is picking Miami to cover (+7.5)

KingCasanova is #6 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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ATL

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'dude18555' picks Miami vs Atlanta to go Over (44.5)

dude18555 is #7 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'dude18555' is picking Atlanta to cover (-7.0)

dude18555 is #7 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'puppucci' is picking Atlanta to cover (-5.5)

puppucci is #8 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'puppucci' picks Miami vs Atlanta to go Under (46.5)

puppucci is #8 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'LGG79' picks Miami vs Atlanta to go Under (44.5)

LGG79 is #8 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (4-2-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'LGG79' is picking Atlanta to cover (-7.5)

LGG79 is #8 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (4-2-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'VenezUtah' picks Miami vs Atlanta to go Under (45.5)

VenezUtah is #9 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (5-2-0) and +3850 units on the season.

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'VenezUtah' is picking Atlanta to cover (-6.0)

VenezUtah is #9 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (5-2-0) and +3850 units on the season.

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'ljsjr' picks Miami vs Atlanta to go Under (44.5)

ljsjr is #9 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'ljsjr' is picking Miami to cover (+7.5)

ljsjr is #9 on picking games that Atlanta is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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