Miami Dolphins Picks
4th in AFC East
(0 - 1 - 0)
Next Game
MIA @ SF Picks
NFL PicksPlayable to 60%.
The 49ers took a 24-7 lead early in the fourth quarter against the Rams in Week 1, which led to a more conservative game script down the stretch than we would have seen in a more competitive contest. Still, Mike Evans managed six receptions on seven targets in his San Francisco debut, proving early in the season that he is the focal point of the team's passing attack. This is tremendous value in a favorable matchup.
Playable to 40%.
Mike Evans caught one of Brock Purdy's three touchdown passes in Week 1 against the Rams. He tied for the team-lead in targets among wideouts and is San Francisco's best red zone target at 6-foot-5. Evans has caught 11+ touchdowns in six different NFL seasons since entering the league in 2014 and could be on his way to a seventh such campaign if he can stay healthy in 2026.
Playable to 54%.
In Week 1, Miami's defense struggled against a Las Vegas offense that started 38-year-old Kirk Cousins. The Dolphins had a league-worst 6.5% defensive pressure rate and allowed 143 rushing yards to Ashton Jeanty and Mike Washington Jr. out of the backfield. The net result was 27 points for the Raiders -- a team that scored 17 points or fewer in eight of their final nine regular season games in 2025.
The 49ers allowed only seven points in their season opener, but they benefited tremendously from the Rams being jet lagged after arriving in Australia shortly before kickoff. Still, San Francisco's defense didn't record a sack on 28 Los Angeles pass attempts, and their 22.2% quick pressure rate ranked 5th-worst among defenses for the week.
Both of these offenses should have time to operate in Week 2, which should lead to a higher-scoring affair.
This has bloodbath written all over it. Miami surrendered 27 points to a Raiders offense with nowhere near San Francisco’s firepower. The 49ers are fresh and already look locked in after hanging 27 on the Rams in Australia. Three more against this defense? Pretty damn reasonable. Miami’s offense should struggle to chew up clock, giving San Francisco plenty of chances to pile up the points.
Christian McCaffrey can gash this Dolphins defense for big gains on the ground in Week 2. Miami was 24th in Run Defense DVOA in Week 1 and allowed 100+ yards to Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty. The Fins could be missing two starters on the defensive line and Run CMC has fresh legs with an extended break after thumping the Rams in Australia. He had only 10 carries in that one-side win due to cramping – giving way to rookie RB Kaelon Black - and even with game script calling for another 49ers blowout, projections sit north of 60+ yards with a ceiling of 68. My number comes out to 63 yards from McCaffrey on Sunday.
Everyone and their mom is likely looking to bet on Kaelon Black this weekend to score vs. the Dolphins, but I don't love his 3x price. I'd rather play him for last TD at 10.5x, but that seems pretty close to fair. The real value is with Demarcus Robinson, who played 91% of the snaps after rookie De'Zhaun Stribling exited. He's out long-term. The loss of Jake Tonges also opens some snaps for Robinson in a pass-catching group of oft-injured older players who might not respond well to the travel to Australia and back. Robinson is a buy to 3.8x and is the best-valued TD according to the Covers Anytime Touchdown Value Index, which hit its top-valued TD last week with Dallas Goedert.
Consensus Picks
More Consensus
72% picking San Francisco
Total Picks MIA 230, SF 603
MIA @ SF · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL
Over
44.5 Total
46.36 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.9
DIFFERENCE
9.81%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
M. Willis
(QB)
o173.5 Passing Yards
197.09 OVER
PROJECTION
+23.6
DIFFERENCE
25.54%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
B. Purdy
(QB)
o10.5 Rushing Yards
21.47 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.0
DIFFERENCE
25.77%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
D. Achane
(RB)
o58.5 Rushing Yards
70.45 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.9
DIFFERENCE
25.37%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
C. McCaffrey
(RB)
o57.5 Rushing Yards
61.58 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.1
DIFFERENCE
19.64%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
G. Dulcich
(TE)
o23.5 Receiving Yards
36.07 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.6
DIFFERENCE
26.18%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MIA
C. Douglas
(WR)
o34.5 Receiving Yards
43.81 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.3
DIFFERENCE
24.47%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
M. Washington
(WR)
o32.5 Receiving Yards
40.27 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.8
DIFFERENCE
23.82%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
M. Evans
(WR)
o49.5 Receiving Yards
54.28 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.8
DIFFERENCE
21.44%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
C. McCaffrey
(RB)
u40.5 Receiving Yards
39.90 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
19.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
G. Kittle
(TE)
o40.5 Receiving Yards
43.83 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.3
DIFFERENCE
17.25%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
G. Dulcich
(TE)
o2.5 Receptions Made
2.89 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
17.47%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
C. McCaffrey
(RB)
u4.5 Receptions Made
4.32 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
11.57%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
M. Washington
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions Made
3.63 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-1.65%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
M. Evans
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions Made
3.82 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-7.88%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
G. Kittle
(TE)
o3.5 Receptions Made
3.58 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-14.33%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
D. Achane
(RB)
o13.5 Rushing Attempts
15.12 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.6
DIFFERENCE
19.85%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
C. McCaffrey
(RB)
o14.5 Rushing Attempts
14.92 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
10.58%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
B. Purdy
(QB)
o27.5 Passing Attempts
28.50 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.0
DIFFERENCE
10.14%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
M. Willis
(QB)
o26.5 Passing Attempts
28.12 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.6
DIFFERENCE
9.61%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
M. Willis
(QB)
o16.5 Passing Completions
18.34 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.8
DIFFERENCE
14.96%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
B. Purdy
(QB)
o19.5 Passing Completions
20.48 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.0
DIFFERENCE
4.47%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
M. Washington
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.24 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
22.95%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
C. McCaffrey
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
1.24 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
22.67%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
MIA
C. Douglas
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.21 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
19.32%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
G. Dulcich
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.17 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
13.54%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
B. Purdy
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.27 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
12.55%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. Achane
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.42 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
2.62%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
M. Evans
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.4 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-0.51%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
G. Kittle
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.3 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-6.29%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
M. Willis
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.2 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-10.13%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
M. Willis
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.45 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
19.9%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
B. Purdy
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.38 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
8.92%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
MIA @ SF · Trends
Top User Picks
More Picks
'grandpa9494' is picking San Francisco to cover (-12.5)
grandpa9494 is #1 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.
'MRPEMSTAR' is picking San Francisco to cover (-12.5)
MRPEMSTAR is #1 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.
'rhythmpants' is picking San Francisco to cover (-10.5)
rhythmpants is #10 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.
'bostonutah' is picking San Francisco to cover (-13.5)
bostonutah is #10 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.
'THEPERCHMAN' is picking San Francisco to cover (-13.5)
THEPERCHMAN is #2 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.
'Cheezer69' is picking San Francisco to cover (-13.5)
Cheezer69 is #2 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.
'CJONES1068' is picking Miami to cover (+13.5)
CJONES1068 is #3 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.
'Patrick9' is picking San Francisco to cover (-10.5)
Patrick9 is #4 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.
'hobo' is picking San Francisco to cover (-13.5)
hobo is #4 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.
'IslandBetter' is picking San Francisco to cover (-13.5)
IslandBetter is #5 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.
'T-MAC4ALL' is picking Miami to cover (+13.5)
T-MAC4ALL is #5 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.
'cpg233' is picking San Francisco to cover (-12.5)
cpg233 is #6 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.
'vegasbet03' is picking San Francisco to cover (-13.5)
vegasbet03 is #6 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.
'Destiny09' is picking San Francisco to cover (-13.5)
Destiny09 is #7 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.
'deerkiller' is picking San Francisco to cover (-12.5)
deerkiller is #8 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.
'Sammy2015' is picking San Francisco to cover (-13.5)
Sammy2015 is #9 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +1000 units on the season.