Miami Dolphins

3rd in AFC East (2 - 7 - 0)

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BUFBuffalo Buffalo
at
Miami MIAMiami
Sun, Nov 9 13:00 ET

BUF @ MIA Picks

NFL Picks
Receiving Yards
De'Von Achane logo De'Von Achane o30.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Best Odds
o30.5 -114 FanDuel
Pick made: 17 hours ago
Jason Logan image
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst
o33.5  -109
These are quick bet odds
 -
o30.5  -114
o32.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
o31.5  -115
These are quick bet odds

Achane has proven just as capable a receiver then as a ball carrier. He’s drawn the second highest target share among RBs (22.1%) and is running the fourth most routes for the position, averaging just shy of 30 yards through the air per game.

Score a Touchdown
Josh Allen logo Josh Allen Score a Touchdown (Yes: -110)
Best Odds
 -110 bet365
Pick made: yesterday
Josh Inglis image
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
 -125
 -110
 -140
 -
 -124

In the touchdown market, I have buy-points set for all the big names. Josh Allen is -120 for me—any time I can get better than that, I’m in. Last week, he opened at +110 and closed around -120 to -125, and this TD line has been as short as -165 earlier this year. Allen ran for two touchdowns and threw for another last week, marking the 47th time he’s done both in a game—a new NFL record. With the Bills using their own version of the tush push and still chasing the Patriots for the division lead, Allen isn’t in a spot to slow down. He has four touchdowns over his last two games.

Passing Attempts
Tua Tagovailoa logo
Tua Tagovailoa u32.5 Passing Attempts (-130)
Projection 29.43 (Under)
Best Odds
u32.5 -128 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
u31.5  -119
These are quick bet odds
 -
u32.5  -128
These are quick bet odds
u32.5  -130
These are quick bet odds
u31.5  -106
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Miami Dolphins are forecasted by the model to call just 60.5 plays on offense in this contest: the lowest number among all teams this week.. The 5th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Dolphins this year (a mere 52.4 per game on average).. The predictive model expects Tua Tagovailoa to throw 31.7 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 9th-fewest out of all QBs.. Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 29.9 per game) this year.
-128 at FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Interceptions Thrown
Tua Tagovailoa logo
Tua Tagovailoa u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+128)
Projection 0.46 (Under)
Best Odds
u0.5 +128 FanDuel
Pick made: 11 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u0.5  +126
These are quick bet odds
 -
u0.5  +128
u0.5  +115
These are quick bet odds
u0.5  +110
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Miami Dolphins are forecasted by the model to call just 60.5 plays on offense in this contest: the lowest number among all teams this week.. The 5th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Dolphins this year (a mere 52.4 per game on average).. The predictive model expects Tua Tagovailoa to throw 31.7 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 9th-fewest out of all QBs.. Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 29.9 per game) this year.. When it comes to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Dolphins profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year.
+128 at FanDuel
Receiving Yards
Khalil Shakir logo
Khalil Shakir o46.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 59.86 (Over)
Best Odds
o46.5 -115 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o46.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
 -
o47.5  -114
o46.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
o46.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
Our trusted projections expect Khalil Shakir to garner 6.9 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile when it comes to WRs.. Khalil Shakir has been a big part of his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 21.5% this year, which ranks in the 81st percentile when it comes to WRs.. The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.. Khalil Shakir grades out as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league, hauling in a stellar 81.2% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 95th percentile among wideouts.. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (68.3%) vs. wide receivers this year (68.3%).
-115 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
De'Von Achane logo
De'Von Achane o31.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 39.35 (Over)
Best Odds
o30.5 -114 FanDuel
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
o33.5  -109
These are quick bet odds
 -
o30.5  -114
o32.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
o31.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
At a -9.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are enormous underdogs in this week's game, indicating much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.. Our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. In this game, De'Von Achane is forecasted by the model to rank in the 99th percentile among running backs with 7.5 targets.. De'Von Achane has been a more important option in his team's pass attack this season (22.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (15.3%).. When it comes to air yards, De'Von Achane ranks in the towering 93rd percentile among running backs this year, averaging a striking 5.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).
-114 at FanDuel
Receiving Yards
James Cook III logo
James Cook III o9.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 12.91 (Over)
Best Odds
o8.5 -114 FanDuel
Pick made: 7 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o8.5  -117
These are quick bet odds
 -
o8.5  -114
o9.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
o9.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.. James Cook's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 84.6% to 92.9%.. This year, the shaky Miami Dolphins defense has allowed a massive 39.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing RBs: the 6th-most in the NFL.. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has been torched for the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (89.5%) vs. RBs this year (89.5%).. When it comes to defensive ends getting after the quarterback, Miami's collection of DEs has been very bad this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL.
-114 at FanDuel
Receiving Yards
Dalton Kincaid logo
Dalton Kincaid u43.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 41 (Under)
Best Odds
u43.5 -115 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u43.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
 -
u42.5  -114
u41.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
 -
With a 9.5-point advantage, the Bills are a huge favorite in this week's contest, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their standard approach.. The predictive model expects the Bills to be the 3rd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 52.3% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the model to have just 122.5 offensive plays run: the fewest on the slate this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game versus the Dolphins defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the league.. Dalton Kincaid's skills in grinding out extra yardage have tailed off this year, accumulating a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.16 rate last year.
-115 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Rushing Yards
Josh Allen logo
Josh Allen o24.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Projection 34.79 (Over)
Best Odds
o24.5 -115 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 37 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
o27.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
 -
o26.5  -114
o24.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o25.5  -120
These are quick bet odds
With a 9.5-point advantage, the Bills are a huge favorite in this week's contest, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their standard approach.. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Buffalo Bills to run on 47.7% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest clip on the slate this week.. In this contest, Josh Allen is predicted by our trusted projection set to accrue the 6th-most rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 7.0. . Josh Allen has generated 31.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest figures in the NFL among quarterbacks (98th percentile).. Opposing offenses have rushed for the 3rd-most adjusted yards in the NFL (147 per game) vs. the Dolphins defense this year.
-115 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Rushing Attempts
Josh Allen logo
Josh Allen o5.5 Rushing Attempts (-102)
Projection 6.78 (Over)
Best Odds
o5.5 -102 FanDuel
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
o5.5  -116
 -
o5.5  -102
o5.5  -135
o5.5  -117
With a 9.5-point advantage, the Bills are a huge favorite in this week's contest, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their standard approach.. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Buffalo Bills to run on 47.7% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest clip on the slate this week.. In this contest, Josh Allen is predicted by our trusted projection set to accrue the 6th-most rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 7.0. . Josh Allen isn't afraid to run the ball, making up 20.4% of his offense's rushing play calls this year, ranking him in the 86th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.. The Miami Dolphins safeties grade out as the 24th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.
-102 at FanDuel
Rushing Yards
De'Von Achane logo
De'Von Achane u61.5 Rushing Yards (+100)
Projection 58.67 (Under)
Best Odds
u65.5 -113 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 5 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u65.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
 -
u65.5  -114
u61.5  +100
These are quick bet odds
u64.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
At a -9.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are enormous underdogs in this week's game, indicating much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.. The model projects the Dolphins to be the least run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 38.2% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Miami Dolphins are forecasted by the model to call just 60.5 plays on offense in this contest: the lowest number among all teams this week.. The 5th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Dolphins this year (a mere 52.4 per game on average).
-113 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds

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Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.
Spread

67% picking Buffalo

67%
33%

Total Picks BUF 441, MIA 218

Spread
BUF
MIA
Spread
-8.5 -104
+10.5 -145

Top User Picks

More Picks

User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.
Spread

'Lucknuts' is picking Buffalo to cover (-8.5)

Lucknuts is #10 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (4-3-0) and +3800 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
MIA
Spread
-8.5 -104
+10.5 -145
Total

'Lucknuts' picks Buffalo vs Miami to go Over (50.0)

Lucknuts is #10 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (4-3-0) and +3800 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
49.5 -107
50 -103
Total

'johnnyjbd24' picks Buffalo vs Miami to go Over (50.0)

johnnyjbd24 is #2 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (4-1-0) and +4450 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
49.5 -107
50 -103
Spread

'johnnyjbd24' is picking Miami to cover (+9.5)

johnnyjbd24 is #2 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (4-1-0) and +4450 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
MIA
Spread
-8.5 -104
+10.5 -145
Total

'Manning2008SB' picks Buffalo vs Miami to go Under (50.0)

Manning2008SB is #3 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4800 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
49.5 -107
50 -103
Spread

'Manning2008SB' is picking Miami to cover (+9.5)

Manning2008SB is #3 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4800 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
MIA
Spread
-8.5 -104
+10.5 -145
Spread

'Noonball' is picking Buffalo to cover (-8.5)

Noonball is #4 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (6-3-0) and +4800 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
MIA
Spread
-8.5 -104
+10.5 -145
Total

'Noonball' picks Buffalo vs Miami to go Over (49.5)

Noonball is #4 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (6-3-0) and +4800 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
49.5 -107
50 -103
Spread

'vanillagq' is picking Buffalo to cover (-8.5)

vanillagq is #4 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +3850 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
MIA
Spread
-8.5 -104
+10.5 -145
Total

'vanillagq' picks Buffalo vs Miami to go Under (50.0)

vanillagq is #4 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +3850 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
49.5 -107
50 -103
Spread

'BetoCM' is picking Miami to cover (+9.5)

BetoCM is #5 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +4450 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
MIA
Spread
-8.5 -104
+10.5 -145
Total

'BetoCM' picks Buffalo vs Miami to go Under (50.0)

BetoCM is #5 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +4450 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
49.5 -107
50 -103
Total

'goph62' picks Buffalo vs Miami to go Under (50.0)

goph62 is #6 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (2-1-0) and +4450 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
49.5 -107
50 -103
Spread

'goph62' is picking Miami to cover (+9.5)

goph62 is #6 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (2-1-0) and +4450 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
MIA
Spread
-8.5 -104
+10.5 -145
Total

'MaximusRamulous' picks Buffalo vs Miami to go Over (50.0)

MaximusRamulous is #6 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (6-2-0) and +3800 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
49.5 -107
50 -103
Spread

'MaximusRamulous' is picking Buffalo to cover (-9.5)

MaximusRamulous is #6 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (6-2-0) and +3800 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
MIA
Spread
-8.5 -104
+10.5 -145
Spread

'TDRO1' is picking Buffalo to cover (-8.5)

TDRO1 is #8 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +3800 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
MIA
Spread
-8.5 -104
+10.5 -145
Total

'TDRO1' picks Buffalo vs Miami to go Under (50.0)

TDRO1 is #8 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +3800 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
49.5 -107
50 -103
Spread

'charro23' is picking Miami to cover (+8.5)

charro23 is #9 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +3520 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
MIA
Spread
-8.5 -104
+10.5 -145
Total

'charro23' picks Buffalo vs Miami to go Under (49.5)

charro23 is #9 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +3520 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
49.5 -107
50 -103
Spread

'JCAV' is picking Buffalo to cover (-8.5)

JCAV is #9 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (6-2-0) and +3800 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
MIA
Spread
-8.5 -104
+10.5 -145
Total

'JCAV' picks Buffalo vs Miami to go Over (50.0)

JCAV is #9 on picking games that Miami is in with a record of (6-2-0) and +3800 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
49.5 -107
50 -103

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