Las Vegas Raiders Picks
3rd in AFC West
(4 - 5 - 0)
Next Game
Sun, Nov 15
16:05 ET
SEA @ LV Picks
NFL Picks
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Let's back the rookie in his first start at 7.14x, with 6.5x being a more reasonable fair price. It's not an easy matchup, but at least the Seahawks have the league's second-worst red-zone TD rate at 75% this season. The Raiders have also been awful running the ball, averaging a league-low 2.9 yards per carry, with just two red-zone rushing touchdowns from their running backs on 45 attempts. Even Kirk Cousins found the end zone last week at 16/1. If he can do it, so can the betting favorite for OROY, who scored seven rushing touchdowns on 65 actual carries at Indiana last season. Young QBs can panic near the goal line, and I'll gladly take a couple of scrambles inside the 20.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Seahawks may pass less this week (and call more carries) because they be rolling with backup QB Drew Lock.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. Drew Lock grades out as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league this year with an excellent 70.6% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 90th percentile.. The Raiders pass defense has shown weak efficiency this year, yielding 8.22 adjusted yards-per-target: the 10th-most in the NFL.. As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Las Vegas's CB corps has been terrible this year, ranking as the worst in the league.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Right now, the 5th-most run-oriented offense in the league (43.0% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Raiders.. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Seattle's unit has been awful this year, projecting as the 3rd-worst in football. in football.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Seahawks are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Seahawks to run on 47.3% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest rate on the slate this week.. This week, Zach Charbonnet is predicted by the model to land in the 84th percentile when it comes to running backs with 15.1 carries.. Zach Charbonnet has averaged 43.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in football when it comes to running backs (80th percentile).. This year, the poor Raiders run defense has yielded a whopping 151.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 2nd-most in football.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
A throwing game script is suggested by the Raiders being a -6.5-point underdog this week.. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
A throwing game script is suggested by the Raiders being a -6.5-point underdog this week.. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Seahawks may pass less this week (and call more carries) because they be rolling with backup QB Drew Lock.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. In this contest, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is forecasted by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 97th percentile among wideouts with 11.0 targets.. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 101.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season reflects a meaningful boost in his receiving skills over last season's 84.0 figure.. The Las Vegas Raiders defense has been torched for the 10th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (157.0) vs. wideouts this year.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Seahawks may pass less this week (and call more carries) because they be rolling with backup QB Drew Lock.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. In regards to air yards, Zach Charbonnet grades out in the lofty 90th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 2.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).. The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has conceded the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (96.8%) versus RBs this year (96.8%).. The Raiders pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency against running backs this year, allowing 8.37 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-most in football.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Seahawks may pass less this week (and call more carries) because they be rolling with backup QB Drew Lock.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, Las Vegas's collection of LBs has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Seahawks may pass less this week (and call more carries) because they be rolling with backup QB Drew Lock.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. Zach Charbonnet has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 20.0% this year, which puts him in the 99th percentile among RBs.. In regards to air yards, Zach Charbonnet grades out in the lofty 90th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 2.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).. The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has conceded the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (96.8%) versus RBs this year (96.8%).
Consensus Picks
More ConsensusSEA @ LV · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL
Over
40.5 Total
45.80 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.3
DIFFERENCE
18.38%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
D. Lock
(QB)
o200.5 Passing Yards
215.41 OVER
PROJECTION
+14.9
DIFFERENCE
23.25%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
A. Jeanty
(RB)
o34.5 Rushing Yards
39.90 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.4
DIFFERENCE
23.06%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
Z. Charbonnet
(RB)
o59.5 Rushing Yards
62.61 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.1
DIFFERENCE
22.4%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
D. Lock
(QB)
o6.5 Rushing Yards
6.90 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-30%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
T. Tucker
(WR)
o25.5 Receiving Yards
40.24 OVER
PROJECTION
+14.7
DIFFERENCE
26.14%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
B. Bowers
(TE)
o58.5 Receiving Yards
72.70 OVER
PROJECTION
+14.2
DIFFERENCE
25.55%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
J. Smith-Njigba
(WR)
o84.5 Receiving Yards
95.56 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.1
DIFFERENCE
24.36%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
Z. Charbonnet
(RB)
o9.5 Receiving Yards
13.50 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.0
DIFFERENCE
23.89%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
A. Barner
(TE)
o21.5 Receiving Yards
26.02 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.5
DIFFERENCE
20.27%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
A. Jeanty
(RB)
o23.5 Receiving Yards
25.92 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.4
DIFFERENCE
9.72%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
A. Barner
(TE)
u2.5 Receptions Made
2.46 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
14.77%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
B. Bowers
(TE)
o5.5 Receptions Made
6.15 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
14.57%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
T. Tucker
(WR)
o2.5 Receptions Made
2.97 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
14.34%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
A. Jeanty
(RB)
u4.5 Receptions Made
3.76 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
8.93%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
Z. Charbonnet
(RB)
o1.5 Receptions Made
2.04 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
7.72%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
J. Smith-Njigba
(WR)
u7.5 Receptions Made
7.00 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
4.52%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
A. Jeanty
(RB)
u10.5 Rushing Attempts
9.69 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
13.16%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Z. Charbonnet
(RB)
u14.5 Rushing Attempts
14.46 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
-4.18%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
D. Lock
(QB)
o28.5 Passing Attempts
28.61 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-15.13%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
D. Lock
(QB)
o18.5 Passing Completions
19.27 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
-0.61%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Z. Charbonnet
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.67 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
22.15%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
B. Bowers
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.37 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
13.26%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Smith-Njigba
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.56 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
9.83%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
T. Tucker
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.19 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
8.67%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
A. Jeanty
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.34 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-4.55%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
A. Barner
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.22 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-15.04%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
D. Lock
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.44 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
11.19%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
SPREAD
TOTAL
Over
40.5 Total
45.80 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.3
DIFFERENCE
18.38%
EV
PASSING YARDS
D. Lock
(QB)
o200.5 Passing Yards
215.41 OVER
PROJECTION
+14.9
DIFFERENCE
23.25%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
A. Jeanty
(RB)
o34.5 Rushing Yards
39.90 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.4
DIFFERENCE
23.06%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
Z. Charbonnet
(RB)
o59.5 Rushing Yards
62.61 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.1
DIFFERENCE
22.4%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
D. Lock
(QB)
o6.5 Rushing Yards
6.90 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-30%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
T. Tucker
(WR)
o25.5 Receiving Yards
40.24 OVER
PROJECTION
+14.7
DIFFERENCE
26.14%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
B. Bowers
(TE)
o58.5 Receiving Yards
72.70 OVER
PROJECTION
+14.2
DIFFERENCE
25.55%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
J. Smith-Njigba
(WR)
o84.5 Receiving Yards
95.56 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.1
DIFFERENCE
24.36%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
Z. Charbonnet
(RB)
o9.5 Receiving Yards
13.50 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.0
DIFFERENCE
23.89%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
A. Barner
(TE)
o21.5 Receiving Yards
26.02 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.5
DIFFERENCE
20.27%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
A. Jeanty
(RB)
o23.5 Receiving Yards
25.92 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.4
DIFFERENCE
9.72%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
A. Barner
(TE)
u2.5 Receptions Made
2.46 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
14.77%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
B. Bowers
(TE)
o5.5 Receptions Made
6.15 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
14.57%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
T. Tucker
(WR)
o2.5 Receptions Made
2.97 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
14.34%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
A. Jeanty
(RB)
u4.5 Receptions Made
3.76 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
8.93%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
Z. Charbonnet
(RB)
o1.5 Receptions Made
2.04 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
7.72%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
J. Smith-Njigba
(WR)
u7.5 Receptions Made
7.00 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
4.52%
EV
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
A. Jeanty
(RB)
u10.5 Rushing Attempts
9.69 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
13.16%
EV
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Z. Charbonnet
(RB)
u14.5 Rushing Attempts
14.46 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
-4.18%
EV
PASSING ATTEMPTS
D. Lock
(QB)
o28.5 Passing Attempts
28.61 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-15.13%
EV
PASSING COMPLETIONS
D. Lock
(QB)
o18.5 Passing Completions
19.27 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
-0.61%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Z. Charbonnet
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.67 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
22.15%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
B. Bowers
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.37 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
13.26%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Smith-Njigba
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.56 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
9.83%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
T. Tucker
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.19 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
8.67%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
A. Jeanty
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.34 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-4.55%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
A. Barner
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.22 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-15.04%
EV
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
D. Lock
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.44 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
11.19%
EV
SEA @ LV · Trends
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