Las Vegas Raiders

Picks

The Raiders rank 2nd in the NFL at defending QB scrambles. 

Williams has run the seventh most routes among all running backs but saw his receiving role dwindle the last two games due to Dallas falling behind quickly and being forced to pass downfield. Williams, who was targeted three or more times in six of his first seven games, saw just three total targets in one-sided losses to Denver and Arizona. But with the Boys expected to lead in Vegas, Williams’ involvement in the passing game will peak again. Player models for MNF range from 2.3 to 2.9 receptions for Williams, who knows this foe well from his days with Denver. In fact, Williams drew 25 total targets for 18 receptions in his last four games against Las Vegas defensive coordinator Patrick Graham.

Pickens has drawn nine targets in each of his last two games and has registered nine or more targets in six of his nine games overall this season. Those have added up 68 yards or more in seven of those outings. With a tall total for Monday Night Football, bookies are bracing for a surplus of offense from Dallas. The Cowboys take on a Vegas secondary running one of the highest rates of zone coverage in the NFL and Pickens currently ranks No. 9 among all WRs versus zone at PFF. The Raiders sit in the middle of the road in many pass defense measurements, but have been burned by opponents’ second options, ranking No. 25 in DVOA versus WR2 at FTN. Pickens is the best WR2 in the league and his Week 11 projections all north of his receiving yards total (most leaning toward 70 yards).

Las Vegas offensive coordinator Chip Kelly spoke to the media ahead of this Monday night matchup, emphasizing the importance of Bowers and explaining why the TE didn’t see many passes his way on TNF (the plays LV took sacks were designed for Bowers). With a mini bye following the loss to Denver and an extra rest day for MNF, this is the healthiest Bowers has been in a long time. The Raiders take on a poor pass defense from Dallas, which sits neat the bottom of most defensive metrics. The Cowboys run a high rate of zone coverage and Bowers is at his best finding seams in the zone and doing damage after the catch. His Week 11 projections range from 5.5 to 6.6 catches but considering his improved health, increased involvement, and defensive matchups, I see him putting in a busy night on Monday.

Lockett has a lot of trust in Geno Smith from their Seattle days, and Tre Tucker is not a heavy-volume wide receiver. In his first game last week with the Silver and Black, Lockett played just 59% of the snaps and led the team in targets (six), receptions (five), and yards (44). Those numbers could be improved on Monday night indoors versus this defense, and the ladder potential is real here.

There’s only one matchup that makes me interested in the Raiders’ passing game — and it’s against the Cowboys. The +370 price certainly helps. Tyler Lockett, in just his second game with Las Vegas, saw six targets for 44 yards in last week’s 10–7 loss. He already has chemistry with Geno Smith from their Seattle days, and with Jakobi Meyers traded, the Raiders are thin at wide receiver. Lockett tied for the team lead in route share at 79% and was on the field for nearly every three-wide set in Week 10. It’s a long shot, but I like backing WR2s at +300 or better, especially against a pass-funnel defense like Dallas. Lockett is also the only Raiders receiver to see a red-zone target over the last two games.