Las Vegas Raiders Picks
2nd in AFC West
(2 - 0 - 0)
Next Game
Sun, Sep 27
16:25 ET
LV @ NO Picks
NFL PicksEV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
A passing game script is indicated by the Raiders being a -3-point underdog in this game.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Raiders to pass on 61.2% of their chances: the 8th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The predictive model expects this game to see the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.7 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The model projects Kirk Cousins to attempt 38.4 passes in this game, on balance: the 5th-most among all quarterbacks.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The model projects the Saints to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to have the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The New Orleans Saints have called the 3rd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 60.4 plays per game.. The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.. The Raiders linebackers grade out as the 3rd-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
A passing game script is indicated by the Raiders being a -3-point underdog in this game.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Raiders to pass on 61.2% of their chances: the 8th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The predictive model expects this game to see the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.7 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The model projects Kirk Cousins to attempt 38.4 passes in this game, on balance: the 5th-most among all quarterbacks.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The model projects the Saints to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to have the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The New Orleans Saints have called the 3rd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 60.4 plays per game.. The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
A passing game script is indicated by the Raiders being a -3-point underdog in this game.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Raiders to pass on 61.2% of their chances: the 8th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The predictive model expects this game to see the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.7 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Kirk Cousins's passing accuracy has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 60.8% to 67.6%.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
A passing game script is indicated by the Raiders being a -3-point underdog in this game.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Raiders to pass on 60.2% of their chances: the 9th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The predictive model expects this game to see the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. While Michael Mayer has garnered 13.7% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played since the start of last season, our trusted projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Las Vegas's passing offense near the goal line this week at 23.1%.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
A passing game script is indicated by the Raiders being a -3-point underdog in this game.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Raiders to pass on 61.2% of their chances: the 8th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The predictive model expects this game to see the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.7 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The model projects Kirk Cousins to attempt 38.4 passes in this game, on balance: the 5th-most among all quarterbacks.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The model projects the Saints to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect the New Orleans Saints to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 61.4% red zone pass rate.. The projections expect this game to have the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The New Orleans Saints have called the 3rd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 60.4 plays per game.. The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
A passing game script is indicated by the Raiders being a -3-point underdog in this game.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Raiders to pass on 61.2% of their chances: the 8th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The predictive model expects this game to see the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.7 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Since the start of last season, the deficient New Orleans Saints pass defense has yielded a massive 89.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the biggest rate in the NFL.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The model projects the Saints to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect the New Orleans Saints to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 61.4% red zone pass rate.. The projections expect this game to have the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The New Orleans Saints have called the 3rd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 60.4 plays per game.. The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.
Consensus Picks
More ConsensusLV @ NO · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL
Over
43.5 Total
47.66 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.2
DIFFERENCE
18.22%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
K. Cousins
(QB)
o210.5 Passing Yards
250.58 OVER
PROJECTION
+40.1
DIFFERENCE
26.47%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
T. Shough
(QB)
o250.5 Passing Yards
282.21 OVER
PROJECTION
+31.7
DIFFERENCE
25.88%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
A. Jeanty
(RB)
o67.5 Rushing Yards
69.19 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.7
DIFFERENCE
-2.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
K. Cousins
(QB)
o31.5 Passing Attempts
36.80 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.3
DIFFERENCE
22.18%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
T. Shough
(QB)
o32.5 Passing Attempts
36.28 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.8
DIFFERENCE
21.03%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
K. Cousins
(QB)
o20.5 Passing Completions
23.77 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.3
DIFFERENCE
19.24%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
T. Shough
(QB)
o22.5 Passing Completions
24.57 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.1
DIFFERENCE
12.73%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
M. Mayer
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.29 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
27.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
K. Cousins
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.07 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
24.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
T. Shough
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.32 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
19.58%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
A. Jeanty
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.71 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
19.08%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
C. Olave
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.55 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
17.35%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Johnson
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.28 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
7.97%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
T. Tucker
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.23 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-7.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
T. Etienne Jr.
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.31 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-17.89%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
K. Cousins
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.47 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
13.68%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
SPREAD
TOTAL
Over
43.5 Total
47.66 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.2
DIFFERENCE
18.22%
EV
PASSING YARDS
K. Cousins
(QB)
o210.5 Passing Yards
250.58 OVER
PROJECTION
+40.1
DIFFERENCE
26.47%
EV
PASSING YARDS
T. Shough
(QB)
o250.5 Passing Yards
282.21 OVER
PROJECTION
+31.7
DIFFERENCE
25.88%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
A. Jeanty
(RB)
o67.5 Rushing Yards
69.19 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.7
DIFFERENCE
-2.12%
EV
PASSING ATTEMPTS
K. Cousins
(QB)
o31.5 Passing Attempts
36.80 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.3
DIFFERENCE
22.18%
EV
PASSING ATTEMPTS
T. Shough
(QB)
o32.5 Passing Attempts
36.28 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.8
DIFFERENCE
21.03%
EV
PASSING COMPLETIONS
K. Cousins
(QB)
o20.5 Passing Completions
23.77 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.3
DIFFERENCE
19.24%
EV
PASSING COMPLETIONS
T. Shough
(QB)
o22.5 Passing Completions
24.57 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.1
DIFFERENCE
12.73%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
M. Mayer
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.29 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
27.2%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
K. Cousins
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.07 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
24.07%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
T. Shough
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.32 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
19.58%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
A. Jeanty
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.71 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
19.08%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
C. Olave
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.55 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
17.35%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Johnson
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.28 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
7.97%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
T. Tucker
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.23 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-7.07%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
T. Etienne Jr.
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.31 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-17.89%
EV
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
K. Cousins
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.47 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
13.68%
EV
LV @ NO · Trends
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