Las Vegas Raiders
Picks

4th in AFC West (2 - 7 - 0)

Next Game

at

Mon, Nov 17 20:15 ET

DAL @ LV Picks

Score a Touchdown

Tyler Lockett Score a Touchdown (Yes: +370)

Best Odds

Pick made: 19 hours ago

There’s only one matchup that makes me interested in the Raiders’ passing game — and it’s against the Cowboys. The +370 price certainly helps. Tyler Lockett, in just his second game with Las Vegas, saw six targets for 44 yards in last week’s 10–7 loss. He already has chemistry with Geno Smith from their Seattle days, and with Jakobi Meyers traded, the Raiders are thin at wide receiver. Lockett tied for the team lead in route share at 79% and was on the field for nearly every three-wide set in Week 10. It’s a long shot, but I like backing WR2s at +300 or better, especially against a pass-funnel defense like Dallas. Lockett is also the only Raiders receiver to see a red-zone target over the last two games.

Passing Yards

Geno Smith o229.5 Passing Yards (-113)

Projection 252.89 (Over)

Best Odds

o229.5 -113

Pick made: 37 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o229.5 -113

o231.5 -114

o243.5 -115

o235.5 -114

This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Raiders, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. Our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.9 per game) this year.. This year, the shaky Dallas Cowboys defense has yielded a staggering 276.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing teams: the 2nd-worst in the league.

-113 at DraftKings

Passing Yards

Dak Prescott o253.5 Passing Yards (-112)

Projection 266.96 (Over)

Best Odds

o253.5 -112

Pick made: 37 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o253.5 -112

o254.5 -114

o259.5 -115

o255.5 -114

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.4% of their downs: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The 9th-most plays in the league have been run by the Cowboys this year (a massive 59.1 per game on average).. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. Dak Prescott has attempted 37.1 passes per game this year, checking in at the 95th percentile when it comes to QBs.. Dak Prescott checks in as one of the best quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a fantastic 255.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 95th percentile.

-112 at DraftKings

Interceptions Thrown

Geno Smith u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+122)

Projection 0.39 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: 21 hours ago

EV Model Rating

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by our trusted projection set to see only 125.9 plays on offense called: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.. The Las Vegas Raiders have called the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 52.9 plays per game.. The leading projections forecast Geno Smith to attempt 32.3 passes in this game, on balance: the 9th-fewest among all QBs.. When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Las Vegas Raiders grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.

+122 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

Jake Ferguson o35.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Projection 53.32 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 16 hours ago

EV Model Rating

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.4% of their downs: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The 9th-most plays in the league have been run by the Cowboys this year (a massive 59.1 per game on average).. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. This week, Jake Ferguson is projected by our trusted projection set to rank in the 98th percentile among TEs with 7.7 targets.. After totaling 26.0 air yards per game last season, Jake Ferguson has undergone big improvement this season, currently boasting 35.0 per game.

-114 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

Ashton Jeanty o16.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Projection 24.29 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 18 hours ago

EV Model Rating

This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Raiders, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. Our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.9 per game) this year.. This year, the feeble Dallas Cowboys defense has been torched for a whopping 46.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the most in football.

Receiving Yards

Tre Tucker o44.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Projection 53.8 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 37 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Raiders, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. Our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.9 per game) this year.. The Cowboys defense has yielded the 2nd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (177.0) vs. WRs this year.

-114 at DraftKings

Receiving Yards

CeeDee Lamb u84.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

Projection 76.04 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: 20 hours ago

EV Model Rating

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on running than their typical approach.. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 125.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the significance it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Dallas Cowboys profiles as the 8th-worst in football this year.. CeeDee Lamb's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 68.6% to 65.1%.. CeeDee Lamb's talent in grinding out extra yardage have declined this year, totaling a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.67 mark last year.

-114 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

Javonte Williams o13.5 Receiving Yards (-108)

Projection 16.63 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 19 hours ago

EV Model Rating

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.4% of their downs: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The 9th-most plays in the league have been run by the Cowboys this year (a massive 59.1 per game on average).. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.. Javonte Williams's 59.1% Route% this season conveys a significant boost in his pass game usage over last season's 44.1% mark.. In this week's game, Javonte Williams is anticipated by the projections to position himself in the 84th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.8 targets.

-114 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

Brock Bowers o70.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Projection 76.03 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 37 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Raiders, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. Our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.9 per game) this year.. This year, the weak Dallas Cowboys pass defense has yielded a whopping 81.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 7th-biggest rate in the NFL.

-113 at DraftKings

Rushing Yards

Geno Smith o8.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Projection 15.49 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 17 hours ago

EV Model Rating

Opposing teams have rushed for the 3rd-most adjusted yards in football (149 per game) versus the Cowboys defense this year.. The Cowboys linebackers project as the worst group of LBs in the NFL this year with their run defense.

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

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65% picking Dallas

65% 65%

35% 35%

Total Picks DAL 421, LV 222

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DAL

LV

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Top User Picks

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'sweeton60' is picking Dallas to cover (-3.5)

sweeton60 is #10 on picking games that Las Vegas are in with a record of (7-2-0) and +3860 units on the season.

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LV

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'sweeton60' picks Dallas vs Las Vegas to go Under (51.0)

sweeton60 is #10 on picking games that Las Vegas are in with a record of (7-2-0) and +3860 units on the season.

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'ckope1' is picking Las Vegas to cover (+3.5)

ckope1 is #2 on picking games that Dallas are in with a record of (7-2-0) and +5850 units on the season.

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DAL

LV

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'sailorman1965' is picking Las Vegas to cover (+3.5)

sailorman1965 is #2 on picking games that Las Vegas are in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4940 units on the season.

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LV

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'sailorman1965' picks Dallas vs Las Vegas to go Over (50.0)

sailorman1965 is #2 on picking games that Las Vegas are in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4940 units on the season.

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'ckope1' picks Dallas vs Las Vegas to go Under (50.0)

ckope1 is #2 on picking games that Dallas are in with a record of (7-2-0) and +5850 units on the season.

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'jsmith0398' is picking Dallas to cover (-3.0)

jsmith0398 is #4 on picking games that Dallas are in with a record of (6-2-0) and +4850 units on the season.

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DAL

LV

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'jsmith0398' picks Dallas vs Las Vegas to go Over (50.5)

jsmith0398 is #4 on picking games that Dallas are in with a record of (6-2-0) and +4850 units on the season.

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'avangal' is picking Dallas to cover (-3.5)

avangal is #5 on picking games that Las Vegas are in with a record of (6-2-0) and +4850 units on the season.

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LV

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'avangal' picks Dallas vs Las Vegas to go Under (50.0)

avangal is #5 on picking games that Las Vegas are in with a record of (6-2-0) and +4850 units on the season.

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'JLGiants38' is picking Las Vegas to cover (+3.5)

JLGiants38 is #6 on picking games that Las Vegas are in with a record of (9-0-0) and +4800 units on the season.

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LV

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'london79' picks Dallas vs Las Vegas to go Over (51.0)

london79 is #7 on picking games that Dallas are in with a record of (5-1-0) and +4400 units on the season.

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'london79' is picking Las Vegas to cover (+3.5)

london79 is #7 on picking games that Dallas are in with a record of (5-1-0) and +4400 units on the season.

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DAL

LV

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'qlh' is picking Las Vegas to cover (+3.0)

qlh is #8 on picking games that Dallas are in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4300 units on the season.

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'qlh' picks Dallas vs Las Vegas to go Over (49.5)

qlh is #8 on picking games that Dallas are in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4300 units on the season.

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'ChOmP' picks Dallas vs Las Vegas to go Under (50.5)

ChOmP is #9 on picking games that Dallas are in with a record of (3-2-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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