Denver Broncos

1st in AFC West (0 - 0 - 0)

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Mon, Sep 14 20:15 ET

DEN @ KC Picks

NFL Picks
Spread
Denver Broncos image thumbnail DEN +3.0 (-115)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Joe Osborne logo
Joe Osborne
Senior Betting Analyst

Distractions in sports tend to be overrated, but the Kansas City Chiefs have A LOT going on headed into the new season. It's fair to question what version of Patrick Mahomes we'll get in Week 1 after tearing his ACL and LCL late last season. The fact that he's coming of a bad season (by his standards) and will be playing one of the league's top defenses adds to those concerns. Denver is coming off a season where they went 5-1 ATS as an underdog. Expect them to be ready to compete and keep this game within the number against a Chiefs team that could need time to find its footing.

Total
Denver Broncos image thumbnail Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail u42.5 (-105)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 months ago
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

Patrick Mahomes is trending toward playing in Week 1 after suffering an ACL injury last season. And the schedule makers did the best they could to get No. 15 back on the field, giving him an extra day of rest. He likely won't be the full 100% version of Mahomes, however, and the Denver Broncos defense remains among the elite under coordinator Vance Joseph, especially against the pass. The Broncos have done an excellent job shutting down Mahomes the past two seasons, and that respect shows in this sub-44 total.

Passing Yards
Bo Nix logo
Bo Nix o219.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Projection 241.11 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Denver Broncos will be forced to utilize backup QB Bo Nix in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The leading projections forecast the Broncos to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-highest clip in football versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense last year (75.0% Adjusted Completion%).
Rushing Yards
Patrick Mahomes logo
Patrick Mahomes o15.5 Rushing Yards (-102)
Projection 24.27 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. In averaging a whopping 4.0 rush attempts per game last year, Patrick Mahomes stands among the top QBs in the league (82nd percentile) when talking about rushing usage.. Patrick Mahomes isn't afraid to be involved in the run game, accounting for 17.1% of his offense's carries last year, putting him in the 78th percentile when it comes to QBs.. With a terrific tally of 23.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (85th percentile), Patrick Mahomes rates among the top running quarterbacks in the league last year.
Rushing Yards
Bo Nix logo
Bo Nix o14.5 Rushing Yards (-119)
Projection 21.3 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.
Rushing Yards
J.K. Dobbins logo
J.K. Dobbins o47.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Projection 52.45 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.. The predictive model expects J.K. Dobbins to earn 12.0 carries in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 75th percentile among running backs.. With a fantastic tally of 67.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (94th percentile), J.K. Dobbins ranks among the top RBs in the NFL last year.. With a terrific rate of 4.85 adjusted yards per carry (76th percentile), J.K. Dobbins has been among the best pure rushers in football last year.
Rushing Yards
Kenneth Walker III logo
Kenneth Walker III o59.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Projection 63.15 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect Kenneth Walker III to accumulate 15.0 rush attempts in this game, on balance, placing him in the 88th percentile when it comes to RBs.. Out of all RBs, Kenneth Walker III ranks in the 83rd percentile for carries last year, comprising 48.7% of the workload in his offense's ground game.. With a remarkable record of 52.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (87th percentile), Kenneth Walker III stands among the best pure rushers in football last year.
Receiving Yards
Jaylen Waddle logo
Jaylen Waddle o53.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 62.53 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 18 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Denver Broncos will be forced to utilize backup QB Bo Nix in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The leading projections forecast the Broncos to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.. The Chiefs pass defense has given up the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.4%) vs. WRs last year (67.4%).
Receiving Yards
Travis Kelce logo
Travis Kelce o37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 42.85 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Kansas City Chiefs may lean on the pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Patrick Mahomes.. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense last year: 6th-most in the league.. With a sizeable 82.6% Route% (93rd percentile) last year, Travis Kelce ranks among the TEs with the biggest workloads in football.
Receiving Yards
Kenneth Walker III logo
Kenneth Walker III o14.5 Receiving Yards (-130)
Projection 18.17 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Kansas City Chiefs may lean on the pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Patrick Mahomes.. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense last year: 6th-most in the league.. In this contest, Kenneth Walker III is expected by the projections to slot into the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.6 targets.
Receiving Yards
J.K. Dobbins logo
J.K. Dobbins o4.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 6.66 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Denver Broncos will be forced to utilize backup QB Bo Nix in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The leading projections forecast the Broncos to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.. The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has been torched for the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (86.5%) vs. running backs last year (86.5%).
Rushing Attempts
Kenneth Walker III logo
Kenneth Walker III u16.5 Rushing Attempts (-125)
Projection 14.37 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Kansas City Chiefs may lean on the pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Patrick Mahomes.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to run on 39.2% of their opportunities: the 4th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Denver's DT corps has been fantastic last year, projecting as the 10th-best in the league.

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

Spread

60% picking Denver

60%
40%

Total Picks DEN 195, KC 128

Spread
DEN
KC
Total

49% picking Denver vs Kansas City to go Under

51%
49%

Total PicksDEN 111, KC 105

Total
Over
Under

DEN @ KC · Props

GAME & PLAYER PROPS PROJECTIONS ANALYSIS BEST ODDS
PASSING YARDS
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) o219.5 Passing Yards
241.11 OVER PROJECTION
+21.6 DIFFERENCE
25.42% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) o219.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

241.11 OVER PROJECTION
+21.6 DIFFERENCE
25.42% EV

ANALYSIS

The Denver Broncos will be forced to utilize backup QB Bo Nix in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The leading projections forecast the Broncos to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-highest clip in football versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense last year (75.0% Adjusted Completion%).

o219.5 -110
bet365 logo
PASSING YARDS
Patrick Mahomes logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
P. Mahomes (QB) o225.5 Passing Yards
229.88 OVER PROJECTION
+4.4 DIFFERENCE
12.3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Hard Rock Bet
Best Odds
Patrick Mahomes logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
P. Mahomes (QB) o225.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

229.88 OVER PROJECTION
+4.4 DIFFERENCE
12.3% EV

ANALYSIS

The Kansas City Chiefs may lean on the pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Patrick Mahomes.. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense last year: 6th-most in the league.. Patrick Mahomes grades out as one of the best QBs in football last year, averaging an impressive 263.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.

o224.5 -120
Hard Rock Bet logo
RUSHING YARDS
Patrick Mahomes logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
P. Mahomes (QB) o15.5 Rushing Yards
24.27 OVER PROJECTION
+8.8 DIFFERENCE
26.62% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Patrick Mahomes logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
P. Mahomes (QB) o15.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

24.27 OVER PROJECTION
+8.8 DIFFERENCE
26.62% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. In averaging a whopping 4.0 rush attempts per game last year, Patrick Mahomes stands among the top QBs in the league (82nd percentile) when talking about rushing usage.. Patrick Mahomes isn't afraid to be involved in the run game, accounting for 17.1% of his offense's carries last year, putting him in the 78th percentile when it comes to QBs.. With a terrific tally of 23.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (85th percentile), Patrick Mahomes rates among the top running quarterbacks in the league last year.

o14.5 -111
BetRivers logo
RUSHING YARDS
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) o14.5 Rushing Yards
21.30 OVER PROJECTION
+6.8 DIFFERENCE
24.71% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) o14.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

21.30 OVER PROJECTION
+6.8 DIFFERENCE
24.71% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.

o14.5 -119
BetRivers logo
RUSHING YARDS
J.K. Dobbins logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Dobbins (RB) o47.5 Rushing Yards
52.45 OVER PROJECTION
+4.9 DIFFERENCE
16.66% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
J.K. Dobbins logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Dobbins (RB) o47.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

52.45 OVER PROJECTION
+4.9 DIFFERENCE
16.66% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.. The predictive model expects J.K. Dobbins to earn 12.0 carries in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 75th percentile among running backs.. With a fantastic tally of 67.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (94th percentile), J.K. Dobbins ranks among the top RBs in the NFL last year.. With a terrific rate of 4.85 adjusted yards per carry (76th percentile), J.K. Dobbins has been among the best pure rushers in football last year.

o47.5 -110
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Kenneth Walker III logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
K. Walker III (RB) o59.5 Rushing Yards
63.15 OVER PROJECTION
+3.7 DIFFERENCE
16.28% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Kenneth Walker III logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
K. Walker III (RB) o59.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

63.15 OVER PROJECTION
+3.7 DIFFERENCE
16.28% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect Kenneth Walker III to accumulate 15.0 rush attempts in this game, on balance, placing him in the 88th percentile when it comes to RBs.. Out of all RBs, Kenneth Walker III ranks in the 83rd percentile for carries last year, comprising 48.7% of the workload in his offense's ground game.. With a remarkable record of 52.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (87th percentile), Kenneth Walker III stands among the best pure rushers in football last year.

o59.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Jaylen Waddle logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Waddle (WR) o53.5 Receiving Yards
62.53 OVER PROJECTION
+9.0 DIFFERENCE
24.04% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Jaylen Waddle logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Waddle (WR) o53.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

62.53 OVER PROJECTION
+9.0 DIFFERENCE
24.04% EV

ANALYSIS

The Denver Broncos will be forced to utilize backup QB Bo Nix in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The leading projections forecast the Broncos to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.. The Chiefs pass defense has given up the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.4%) vs. WRs last year (67.4%).

o53.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Travis Kelce logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
T. Kelce (TE) o37.5 Receiving Yards
42.85 OVER PROJECTION
+5.3 DIFFERENCE
23.4% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Travis Kelce logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
T. Kelce (TE) o37.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

42.85 OVER PROJECTION
+5.3 DIFFERENCE
23.4% EV

ANALYSIS

The Kansas City Chiefs may lean on the pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Patrick Mahomes.. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense last year: 6th-most in the league.. With a sizeable 82.6% Route% (93rd percentile) last year, Travis Kelce ranks among the TEs with the biggest workloads in football.

o37.5 -110
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Kenneth Walker III logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
K. Walker III (RB) o14.5 Receiving Yards
18.17 OVER PROJECTION
+3.7 DIFFERENCE
22.55% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Kenneth Walker III logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
K. Walker III (RB) o14.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

18.17 OVER PROJECTION
+3.7 DIFFERENCE
22.55% EV

ANALYSIS

The Kansas City Chiefs may lean on the pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Patrick Mahomes.. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense last year: 6th-most in the league.. In this contest, Kenneth Walker III is expected by the projections to slot into the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.6 targets.

o14.5 -130
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
J.K. Dobbins logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Dobbins (RB) o4.5 Receiving Yards
6.66 OVER PROJECTION
+2.2 DIFFERENCE
16.84% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
J.K. Dobbins logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Dobbins (RB) o4.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

6.66 OVER PROJECTION
+2.2 DIFFERENCE
16.84% EV

ANALYSIS

The Denver Broncos will be forced to utilize backup QB Bo Nix in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The leading projections forecast the Broncos to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.. The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has been torched for the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (86.5%) vs. running backs last year (86.5%).

o4.5 -110
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Rashee Rice logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
R. Rice (WR) o59.5 Receiving Yards
61.38 OVER PROJECTION
+1.9 DIFFERENCE
8.66% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Rashee Rice logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
R. Rice (WR) o59.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

61.38 OVER PROJECTION
+1.9 DIFFERENCE
8.66% EV

ANALYSIS

The Kansas City Chiefs may lean on the pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Patrick Mahomes.. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense last year: 6th-most in the league.. In this contest, Rashee Rice is predicted by the projections to find himself in the 95th percentile when it comes to WRs with 8.8 targets.

o59.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Kenneth Walker III logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
K. Walker III (RB) u2.5 Receptions Made
2.32 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
15.6% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
Kenneth Walker III logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
K. Walker III (RB) u2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.32 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
15.6% EV

ANALYSIS

The Denver Broncos pass defense has yielded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (73%) versus running backs last year (73.0%).. When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Denver's safety corps has been phenomenal last year, grading out as the 10th-best in the NFL.

u2.5 +110
Caesars logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Rashee Rice logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
R. Rice (WR) u5.5 Receptions Made
5.17 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
12.71% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Rashee Rice logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
R. Rice (WR) u5.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

5.17 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
12.71% EV

ANALYSIS

As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Denver's CB corps has been phenomenal last year, ranking as the 10th-best in football.

u5.5 +100
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
J.K. Dobbins logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Dobbins (RB) u1.5 Receptions Made
1.08 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
9.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
J.K. Dobbins logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Dobbins (RB) u1.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

1.08 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
9.95% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

u1.5 -180
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Travis Kelce logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
T. Kelce (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made
4.02 OVER PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
-2.65% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Travis Kelce logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
T. Kelce (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.02 OVER PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
-2.65% EV

ANALYSIS

The Kansas City Chiefs may lean on the pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Patrick Mahomes.. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense last year: 6th-most in the league.. With an outstanding 4.2 adjusted receptions per game (96th percentile) last year, Travis Kelce has been as one of the leading pass-catching tight ends in football.

o3.5 -139
BetRivers logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Jaylen Waddle logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Waddle (WR) o4.5 Receptions Made
4.73 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-3.7% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Jaylen Waddle logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Waddle (WR) o4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.73 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-3.7% EV

ANALYSIS

The Denver Broncos will be forced to utilize backup QB Bo Nix in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The leading projections forecast the Broncos to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. With a remarkable 3.5 adjusted catches per game (82nd percentile) last year, Jaylen Waddle ranks among the top WRs in the league in the NFL.. The Chiefs pass defense has given up the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.4%) vs. WRs last year (67.4%).

o4.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Kenneth Walker III logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
K. Walker III (RB) u16.5 Rushing Attempts
14.37 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.1 DIFFERENCE
19% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Kenneth Walker III logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
K. Walker III (RB) u16.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

14.37 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.1 DIFFERENCE
19% EV

ANALYSIS

The Kansas City Chiefs may lean on the pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Patrick Mahomes.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to run on 39.2% of their opportunities: the 4th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Denver's DT corps has been fantastic last year, projecting as the 10th-best in the league.

u16.5 -125
bet365 logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
J.K. Dobbins logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Dobbins (RB) u12.5 Rushing Attempts
11.82 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.7 DIFFERENCE
8.38% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
J.K. Dobbins logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Dobbins (RB) u12.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

11.82 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.7 DIFFERENCE
8.38% EV

ANALYSIS

The Denver Broncos will be forced to utilize backup QB Bo Nix in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Broncos to run on 40.3% of their plays: the 7th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect J.K. Dobbins to be much less involved in his offense's ground game in this week's game (46.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been last year (61.1% in games he has played).

u12.5 -119
DraftKings logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) o3.5 Rushing Attempts
4.46 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
7.46% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) o3.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

4.46 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
7.46% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.

o3.5 -150
bet365 logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Patrick Mahomes logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
P. Mahomes (QB) o31.5 Passing Attempts
35.31 OVER PROJECTION
+3.8 DIFFERENCE
16.08% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Patrick Mahomes logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
P. Mahomes (QB) o31.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

35.31 OVER PROJECTION
+3.8 DIFFERENCE
16.08% EV

ANALYSIS

The Kansas City Chiefs may lean on the pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Patrick Mahomes.. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. The leading projections forecast Patrick Mahomes to attempt 37.0 passes this week, on balance: the 4th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Opposing QBs have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense last year: 6th-most in the league.

o31.5 -115
bet365 logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) o34.5 Passing Attempts
35.41 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
4.6% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) o34.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

35.41 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
4.6% EV

ANALYSIS

The Denver Broncos will be forced to utilize backup QB Bo Nix in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The leading projections forecast the Broncos to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.

o34.5 -110
DraftKings logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) o20.5 Passing Completions
22.13 OVER PROJECTION
+1.6 DIFFERENCE
11.19% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) o20.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

22.13 OVER PROJECTION
+1.6 DIFFERENCE
11.19% EV

ANALYSIS

The Denver Broncos will be forced to utilize backup QB Bo Nix in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The leading projections forecast the Broncos to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-highest clip in football versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense last year (75.0% Adjusted Completion%).

o19.5 -210
bet365 logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Patrick Mahomes logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
P. Mahomes (QB) u21.5 Passing Completions
20.66 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
9.89% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Patrick Mahomes logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
P. Mahomes (QB) u21.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

20.66 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
9.89% EV

ANALYSIS

Last year, the formidable Denver Broncos defense has conceded a puny 67.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 7th-smallest rate in the league.. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Denver's CB corps has been phenomenal last year, ranking as the 10th-best in football.

u21.5 -115
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Rashee Rice logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
R. Rice (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.51 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
18.99% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Rashee Rice logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
R. Rice (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.51 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
18.99% EV

ANALYSIS

The Kansas City Chiefs may lean on the pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Patrick Mahomes.. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense last year: 6th-most in the league.. With an excellent ratio of 0.62 per game through the air (98th percentile), Rashee Rice places as one of the best receiving TD-scorers in the league among wide receivers last year.

+160
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jaylen Waddle logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Waddle (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.34 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
15.62% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Jaylen Waddle logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Waddle (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.34 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
15.62% EV

ANALYSIS

The Denver Broncos will be forced to utilize backup QB Bo Nix in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The leading projections forecast the Broncos to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.. With a high 22.0% Red Zone Target Rate (87th percentile) last year, Jaylen Waddle has been among the wide receivers with the most usage near the goal line in football.

+250
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Evan Engram logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
E. Engram (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.17 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.43% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Evan Engram logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
E. Engram (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.17 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.43% EV

ANALYSIS

The Denver Broncos will be forced to utilize backup QB Bo Nix in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The leading projections forecast the Broncos to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.. The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has yielded the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (86.1%) to tight ends last year (86.1%).

+600
BetRivers logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Kenneth Walker III logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
K. Walker III (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.52 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-2.9% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Kenneth Walker III logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
K. Walker III (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.52 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-2.9% EV

ANALYSIS

The Kansas City Chiefs may lean on the pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Patrick Mahomes.. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense last year: 6th-most in the league.. With an outstanding 91.5% Adjusted Completion% (90th percentile) last year, Kenneth Walker III rates as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league when it comes to RBs.

-115
BetRivers logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Travis Kelce logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
T. Kelce (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.3 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-9.75% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Travis Kelce logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
T. Kelce (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.3 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-9.75% EV

ANALYSIS

The Kansas City Chiefs may lean on the pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Patrick Mahomes.. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense last year: 6th-most in the league.. Travis Kelce has posted a colossal 42.0 air yards per game last year: 91st percentile among TEs.

+195
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.11 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-22.21% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.11 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-22.21% EV

ANALYSIS

The Denver Broncos will be forced to utilize backup QB Bo Nix in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The leading projections forecast the Broncos to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-highest clip in football versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense last year (75.0% Adjusted Completion%).

+480
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J.K. Dobbins logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Dobbins (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.26 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-24.07% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
J.K. Dobbins logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Dobbins (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.26 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-24.07% EV

ANALYSIS

The Denver Broncos will be forced to utilize backup QB Bo Nix in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The leading projections forecast the Broncos to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.. While J.K. Dobbins has garnered 60.6% of his team's red zone rushing play calls in games he has played last year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much smaller piece of Denver's rushing attack near the end zone in this week's game at 46.3%.

+170
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Patrick Mahomes logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
P. Mahomes (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.08 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-30% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Patrick Mahomes logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
P. Mahomes (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.08 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-30% EV

ANALYSIS

The Kansas City Chiefs may lean on the pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Patrick Mahomes.. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. The leading projections forecast Patrick Mahomes to attempt 37.0 passes this week, on balance: the 4th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Opposing QBs have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense last year: 6th-most in the league.

+650
DraftKings logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
15.15% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
15.15% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

u0.5 +100
bet365 logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Patrick Mahomes logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
P. Mahomes (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.57 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-15.15% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Patrick Mahomes logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
P. Mahomes (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.57 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-15.15% EV

ANALYSIS

The Kansas City Chiefs may lean on the pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Patrick Mahomes.. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense last year: 6th-most in the league.. In averaging a massive 0.80 interceptions per game last year, Patrick Mahomes places among the worst quarterbacks in the league (18th percentile).

o0.5 +110
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  • Proj. Diff: Low to High
  • Proj. Diff: High to Low
  • Proj. Rating: Low to High
  • Proj. Rating: High to Low
  • +EV: Low to High
  • +EV: High to Low
PASSING YARDS
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) o219.5 Passing Yards
241.11 OVER PROJECTION
+21.6 DIFFERENCE
25.42% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) o219.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

241.11 OVER PROJECTION
+21.6 DIFFERENCE
25.42% EV

ANALYSIS

The Denver Broncos will be forced to utilize backup QB Bo Nix in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The leading projections forecast the Broncos to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-highest clip in football versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense last year (75.0% Adjusted Completion%).

o219.5 -110
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PASSING YARDS
Patrick Mahomes logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
P. Mahomes (QB) o225.5 Passing Yards
229.88 OVER PROJECTION
+4.4 DIFFERENCE
12.3% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Hard Rock Bet
Best Odds
Patrick Mahomes logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
P. Mahomes (QB) o225.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

229.88 OVER PROJECTION
+4.4 DIFFERENCE
12.3% EV

ANALYSIS

The Kansas City Chiefs may lean on the pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Patrick Mahomes.. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense last year: 6th-most in the league.. Patrick Mahomes grades out as one of the best QBs in football last year, averaging an impressive 263.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.

o224.5 -120
Hard Rock Bet logo
RUSHING YARDS
Patrick Mahomes logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
P. Mahomes (QB) o15.5 Rushing Yards
24.27 OVER PROJECTION
+8.8 DIFFERENCE
26.62% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Patrick Mahomes logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
P. Mahomes (QB) o15.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

24.27 OVER PROJECTION
+8.8 DIFFERENCE
26.62% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. In averaging a whopping 4.0 rush attempts per game last year, Patrick Mahomes stands among the top QBs in the league (82nd percentile) when talking about rushing usage.. Patrick Mahomes isn't afraid to be involved in the run game, accounting for 17.1% of his offense's carries last year, putting him in the 78th percentile when it comes to QBs.. With a terrific tally of 23.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (85th percentile), Patrick Mahomes rates among the top running quarterbacks in the league last year.

o14.5 -111
BetRivers logo
RUSHING YARDS
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) o14.5 Rushing Yards
21.30 OVER PROJECTION
+6.8 DIFFERENCE
24.71% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) o14.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

21.30 OVER PROJECTION
+6.8 DIFFERENCE
24.71% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.

o14.5 -119
BetRivers logo
RUSHING YARDS
J.K. Dobbins logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Dobbins (RB) o47.5 Rushing Yards
52.45 OVER PROJECTION
+4.9 DIFFERENCE
16.66% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
J.K. Dobbins logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Dobbins (RB) o47.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

52.45 OVER PROJECTION
+4.9 DIFFERENCE
16.66% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.. The predictive model expects J.K. Dobbins to earn 12.0 carries in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 75th percentile among running backs.. With a fantastic tally of 67.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (94th percentile), J.K. Dobbins ranks among the top RBs in the NFL last year.. With a terrific rate of 4.85 adjusted yards per carry (76th percentile), J.K. Dobbins has been among the best pure rushers in football last year.

o47.5 -110
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Kenneth Walker III logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
K. Walker III (RB) o59.5 Rushing Yards
63.15 OVER PROJECTION
+3.7 DIFFERENCE
16.28% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Kenneth Walker III logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
K. Walker III (RB) o59.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

63.15 OVER PROJECTION
+3.7 DIFFERENCE
16.28% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect Kenneth Walker III to accumulate 15.0 rush attempts in this game, on balance, placing him in the 88th percentile when it comes to RBs.. Out of all RBs, Kenneth Walker III ranks in the 83rd percentile for carries last year, comprising 48.7% of the workload in his offense's ground game.. With a remarkable record of 52.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (87th percentile), Kenneth Walker III stands among the best pure rushers in football last year.

o59.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Jaylen Waddle logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Waddle (WR) o53.5 Receiving Yards
62.53 OVER PROJECTION
+9.0 DIFFERENCE
24.04% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Jaylen Waddle logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Waddle (WR) o53.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

62.53 OVER PROJECTION
+9.0 DIFFERENCE
24.04% EV

ANALYSIS

The Denver Broncos will be forced to utilize backup QB Bo Nix in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The leading projections forecast the Broncos to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.. The Chiefs pass defense has given up the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.4%) vs. WRs last year (67.4%).

o53.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Travis Kelce logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
T. Kelce (TE) o37.5 Receiving Yards
42.85 OVER PROJECTION
+5.3 DIFFERENCE
23.4% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Travis Kelce logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
T. Kelce (TE) o37.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

42.85 OVER PROJECTION
+5.3 DIFFERENCE
23.4% EV

ANALYSIS

The Kansas City Chiefs may lean on the pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Patrick Mahomes.. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense last year: 6th-most in the league.. With a sizeable 82.6% Route% (93rd percentile) last year, Travis Kelce ranks among the TEs with the biggest workloads in football.

o37.5 -110
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Kenneth Walker III logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
K. Walker III (RB) o14.5 Receiving Yards
18.17 OVER PROJECTION
+3.7 DIFFERENCE
22.55% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Kenneth Walker III logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
K. Walker III (RB) o14.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

18.17 OVER PROJECTION
+3.7 DIFFERENCE
22.55% EV

ANALYSIS

The Kansas City Chiefs may lean on the pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Patrick Mahomes.. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense last year: 6th-most in the league.. In this contest, Kenneth Walker III is expected by the projections to slot into the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.6 targets.

o14.5 -130
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
J.K. Dobbins logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Dobbins (RB) o4.5 Receiving Yards
6.66 OVER PROJECTION
+2.2 DIFFERENCE
16.84% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
J.K. Dobbins logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Dobbins (RB) o4.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

6.66 OVER PROJECTION
+2.2 DIFFERENCE
16.84% EV

ANALYSIS

The Denver Broncos will be forced to utilize backup QB Bo Nix in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The leading projections forecast the Broncos to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.. The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has been torched for the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (86.5%) vs. running backs last year (86.5%).

o4.5 -110
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Rashee Rice logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
R. Rice (WR) o59.5 Receiving Yards
61.38 OVER PROJECTION
+1.9 DIFFERENCE
8.66% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Rashee Rice logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
R. Rice (WR) o59.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

61.38 OVER PROJECTION
+1.9 DIFFERENCE
8.66% EV

ANALYSIS

The Kansas City Chiefs may lean on the pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Patrick Mahomes.. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense last year: 6th-most in the league.. In this contest, Rashee Rice is predicted by the projections to find himself in the 95th percentile when it comes to WRs with 8.8 targets.

o59.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Kenneth Walker III logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
K. Walker III (RB) u2.5 Receptions Made
2.32 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
15.6% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
Kenneth Walker III logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
K. Walker III (RB) u2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.32 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.2 DIFFERENCE
15.6% EV

ANALYSIS

The Denver Broncos pass defense has yielded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (73%) versus running backs last year (73.0%).. When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Denver's safety corps has been phenomenal last year, grading out as the 10th-best in the NFL.

u2.5 +110
Caesars logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Rashee Rice logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
R. Rice (WR) u5.5 Receptions Made
5.17 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
12.71% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Rashee Rice logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
R. Rice (WR) u5.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

5.17 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.3 DIFFERENCE
12.71% EV

ANALYSIS

As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Denver's CB corps has been phenomenal last year, ranking as the 10th-best in football.

u5.5 +100
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
J.K. Dobbins logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Dobbins (RB) u1.5 Receptions Made
1.08 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
9.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
J.K. Dobbins logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Dobbins (RB) u1.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

1.08 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.4 DIFFERENCE
9.95% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

u1.5 -180
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Travis Kelce logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
T. Kelce (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made
4.02 OVER PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
-2.65% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Travis Kelce logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
T. Kelce (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.02 OVER PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
-2.65% EV

ANALYSIS

The Kansas City Chiefs may lean on the pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Patrick Mahomes.. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense last year: 6th-most in the league.. With an outstanding 4.2 adjusted receptions per game (96th percentile) last year, Travis Kelce has been as one of the leading pass-catching tight ends in football.

o3.5 -139
BetRivers logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Jaylen Waddle logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Waddle (WR) o4.5 Receptions Made
4.73 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-3.7% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Jaylen Waddle logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Waddle (WR) o4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.73 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
-3.7% EV

ANALYSIS

The Denver Broncos will be forced to utilize backup QB Bo Nix in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The leading projections forecast the Broncos to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. With a remarkable 3.5 adjusted catches per game (82nd percentile) last year, Jaylen Waddle ranks among the top WRs in the league in the NFL.. The Chiefs pass defense has given up the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.4%) vs. WRs last year (67.4%).

o4.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Kenneth Walker III logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
K. Walker III (RB) u16.5 Rushing Attempts
14.37 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.1 DIFFERENCE
19% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Kenneth Walker III logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
K. Walker III (RB) u16.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

14.37 UNDER PROJECTION
-2.1 DIFFERENCE
19% EV

ANALYSIS

The Kansas City Chiefs may lean on the pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Patrick Mahomes.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to run on 39.2% of their opportunities: the 4th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Denver's DT corps has been fantastic last year, projecting as the 10th-best in the league.

u16.5 -125
bet365 logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
J.K. Dobbins logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Dobbins (RB) u12.5 Rushing Attempts
11.82 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.7 DIFFERENCE
8.38% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
J.K. Dobbins logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Dobbins (RB) u12.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

11.82 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.7 DIFFERENCE
8.38% EV

ANALYSIS

The Denver Broncos will be forced to utilize backup QB Bo Nix in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Broncos to run on 40.3% of their plays: the 7th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect J.K. Dobbins to be much less involved in his offense's ground game in this week's game (46.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been last year (61.1% in games he has played).

u12.5 -119
DraftKings logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) o3.5 Rushing Attempts
4.46 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
7.46% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) o3.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

4.46 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
7.46% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.

o3.5 -150
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PASSING ATTEMPTS
Patrick Mahomes logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
P. Mahomes (QB) o31.5 Passing Attempts
35.31 OVER PROJECTION
+3.8 DIFFERENCE
16.08% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Patrick Mahomes logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
P. Mahomes (QB) o31.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

35.31 OVER PROJECTION
+3.8 DIFFERENCE
16.08% EV

ANALYSIS

The Kansas City Chiefs may lean on the pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Patrick Mahomes.. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. The leading projections forecast Patrick Mahomes to attempt 37.0 passes this week, on balance: the 4th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Opposing QBs have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense last year: 6th-most in the league.

o31.5 -115
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PASSING ATTEMPTS
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) o34.5 Passing Attempts
35.41 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
4.6% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) o34.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

35.41 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
4.6% EV

ANALYSIS

The Denver Broncos will be forced to utilize backup QB Bo Nix in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The leading projections forecast the Broncos to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.

o34.5 -110
DraftKings logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) o20.5 Passing Completions
22.13 OVER PROJECTION
+1.6 DIFFERENCE
11.19% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) o20.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

22.13 OVER PROJECTION
+1.6 DIFFERENCE
11.19% EV

ANALYSIS

The Denver Broncos will be forced to utilize backup QB Bo Nix in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The leading projections forecast the Broncos to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-highest clip in football versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense last year (75.0% Adjusted Completion%).

o19.5 -210
bet365 logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Patrick Mahomes logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
P. Mahomes (QB) u21.5 Passing Completions
20.66 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
9.89% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Patrick Mahomes logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
P. Mahomes (QB) u21.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

20.66 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.8 DIFFERENCE
9.89% EV

ANALYSIS

Last year, the formidable Denver Broncos defense has conceded a puny 67.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 7th-smallest rate in the league.. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Denver's CB corps has been phenomenal last year, ranking as the 10th-best in football.

u21.5 -115
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Rashee Rice logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
R. Rice (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.51 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
18.99% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Rashee Rice logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
R. Rice (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.51 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
18.99% EV

ANALYSIS

The Kansas City Chiefs may lean on the pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Patrick Mahomes.. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense last year: 6th-most in the league.. With an excellent ratio of 0.62 per game through the air (98th percentile), Rashee Rice places as one of the best receiving TD-scorers in the league among wide receivers last year.

+160
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Jaylen Waddle logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Waddle (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.34 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
15.62% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Jaylen Waddle logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Waddle (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.34 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
15.62% EV

ANALYSIS

The Denver Broncos will be forced to utilize backup QB Bo Nix in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The leading projections forecast the Broncos to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.. With a high 22.0% Red Zone Target Rate (87th percentile) last year, Jaylen Waddle has been among the wide receivers with the most usage near the goal line in football.

+250
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Evan Engram logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
E. Engram (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.17 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.43% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Evan Engram logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
E. Engram (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.17 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.43% EV

ANALYSIS

The Denver Broncos will be forced to utilize backup QB Bo Nix in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The leading projections forecast the Broncos to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.. The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has yielded the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (86.1%) to tight ends last year (86.1%).

+600
BetRivers logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Kenneth Walker III logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
K. Walker III (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.52 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-2.9% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Kenneth Walker III logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
K. Walker III (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.52 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-2.9% EV

ANALYSIS

The Kansas City Chiefs may lean on the pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Patrick Mahomes.. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense last year: 6th-most in the league.. With an outstanding 91.5% Adjusted Completion% (90th percentile) last year, Kenneth Walker III rates as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league when it comes to RBs.

-115
BetRivers logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Travis Kelce logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
T. Kelce (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.3 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-9.75% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Travis Kelce logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
T. Kelce (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.3 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-9.75% EV

ANALYSIS

The Kansas City Chiefs may lean on the pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Patrick Mahomes.. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense last year: 6th-most in the league.. Travis Kelce has posted a colossal 42.0 air yards per game last year: 91st percentile among TEs.

+195
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.11 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-22.21% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.11 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-22.21% EV

ANALYSIS

The Denver Broncos will be forced to utilize backup QB Bo Nix in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The leading projections forecast the Broncos to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-highest clip in football versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense last year (75.0% Adjusted Completion%).

+480
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J.K. Dobbins logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Dobbins (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.26 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-24.07% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
J.K. Dobbins logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
J. Dobbins (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.26 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-24.07% EV

ANALYSIS

The Denver Broncos will be forced to utilize backup QB Bo Nix in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The leading projections forecast the Broncos to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.. While J.K. Dobbins has garnered 60.6% of his team's red zone rushing play calls in games he has played last year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much smaller piece of Denver's rushing attack near the end zone in this week's game at 46.3%.

+170
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Patrick Mahomes logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
P. Mahomes (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.08 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-30% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Patrick Mahomes logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
P. Mahomes (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.08 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-30% EV

ANALYSIS

The Kansas City Chiefs may lean on the pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Patrick Mahomes.. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. The leading projections forecast Patrick Mahomes to attempt 37.0 passes this week, on balance: the 4th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Opposing QBs have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense last year: 6th-most in the league.

+650
DraftKings logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
15.15% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Bo Nix logo
Denver Broncos image thumbnail
B. Nix (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.42 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
15.15% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

u0.5 +100
bet365 logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Patrick Mahomes logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
P. Mahomes (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.57 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-15.15% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Patrick Mahomes logo
Kansas City Chiefs image thumbnail
P. Mahomes (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.57 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
-15.15% EV

ANALYSIS

The Kansas City Chiefs may lean on the pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Patrick Mahomes.. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense last year: 6th-most in the league.. In averaging a massive 0.80 interceptions per game last year, Patrick Mahomes places among the worst quarterbacks in the league (18th percentile).

o0.5 +110
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