Cleveland Browns Picks
2nd in AFC North
(3 - 2 - 0)
Next Game
Sun, Oct 18
13:00 ET
BAL @ CLE Picks
NFL PicksEV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Our trusted projections expect the Browns to be the 8th-quickest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.97 seconds per play.. The projections expect Deshaun Watson to accrue 7.6 carries in this week's contest, on average: the 2nd-most out of all QBs.. Deshaun Watson isn't afraid to call his own number, taking on 26.6% of his offense's rush attempts this year, putting him in the 98th percentile among quarterbacks.. With an exceptional total of 16.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (75th percentile), Deshaun Watson has been among the top rushing QBs in the NFL this year.. With a fantastic total of 2.98 yards-after-contact (95th percentile), Deshaun Watson stands as one of the leading running quarterbacks in football this year.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 5th-most in football.. The projections expect Mark Andrews to accumulate 6.0 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 88th percentile among tight ends.. Mark Andrews has been a more important option in his offense's pass game this season (23.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (16.7%).. After accumulating 31.0 air yards per game last season, Mark Andrews has gotten better this season, now pacing 40.0 per game.. Mark Andrews's 34.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year reflects a remarkable gain in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 23.0 figure.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 5th-most in football.. In this week's contest, Zay Flowers is anticipated by our trusted projection set to place in the 91st percentile among wideouts with 8.6 targets.. Zay Flowers's 72.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year marks a remarkable improvement in his receiving prowess over last year's 59.0 figure.. Zay Flowers's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 73.4% to 86.5%.. Zay Flowers's 12.1 adjusted yards per target this year represents an impressive gain in his receiving skills over last year's 9.7 mark.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has been quite strong when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.04 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-fewest in football.. The Baltimore Ravens cornerbacks grade out as the 9th-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Browns are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.. The Browns have been the 5th-most pass-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) this year with a 62.4% red zone pass rate.. Our trusted projections expect the Browns to be the 8th-quickest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.97 seconds per play.. The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (38.4 per game) this year.. The Cleveland Browns O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 5th-most in football.. Zay Flowers has been a key part of his team's pass game near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 26.3% this year, which places him in the 92nd percentile among wideouts.. Zay Flowers's 66.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 93rd percentile for wide receivers.. Zay Flowers's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 73.4% to 86.5%.. Zay Flowers ranks in the 85th percentile among WRs when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an outstanding 0.40 per game.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Consensus Picks
More ConsensusBAL @ CLE · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
CLE
+5.5 spread
4.27
PROJECTION
-1.2
DIFFERENCE
10.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL
Under
42.5 Total
41.11 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.4
DIFFERENCE
13.57%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
D. Watson
(QB)
o199.5 Passing Yards
202.22 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.7
DIFFERENCE
4.4%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
D. Watson
(QB)
o28.5 Rushing Yards
34.59 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.1
DIFFERENCE
23.9%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
D. Henry
(RB)
o88.5 Rushing Yards
93.36 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.9
DIFFERENCE
14.61%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
M. Andrews
(TE)
o27.5 Receiving Yards
35.26 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.8
DIFFERENCE
23.95%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
Z. Flowers
(WR)
o58.5 Receiving Yards
70.16 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.7
DIFFERENCE
23.36%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
D. Boston
(WR)
u54.5 Receiving Yards
51.46 UNDER
PROJECTION
-3.0
DIFFERENCE
19.49%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
D. Henry
(RB)
o10.5 Receiving Yards
10.65 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
12.08%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
D. Henry
(RB)
u1.5 Receptions Made
1.29 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
15.23%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
D. Boston
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions Made
3.61 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-14.4%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
D. Henry
(RB)
u20.5 Rushing Attempts
19.76 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
11.83%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
D. Watson
(QB)
o30.5 Passing Attempts
31.28 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
2.66%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
D. Watson
(QB)
o18.5 Passing Completions
19.38 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
3.26%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. Watson
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.3 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
25.66%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Z. Flowers
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.48 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
19.39%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
M. Andrews
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.33 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
14.17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. Henry
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.71 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
3.71%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. Boston
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.31 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-8.68%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
H. Fannin Jr.
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.26 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-15.63%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
D. Watson
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.41 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
19.21%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
SPREAD
CLE
+5.5 spread
4.27
PROJECTION
-1.2
DIFFERENCE
10.07%
EV
TOTAL
Under
42.5 Total
41.11 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.4
DIFFERENCE
13.57%
EV
PASSING YARDS
D. Watson
(QB)
o199.5 Passing Yards
202.22 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.7
DIFFERENCE
4.4%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
D. Watson
(QB)
o28.5 Rushing Yards
34.59 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.1
DIFFERENCE
23.9%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
D. Henry
(RB)
o88.5 Rushing Yards
93.36 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.9
DIFFERENCE
14.61%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
M. Andrews
(TE)
o27.5 Receiving Yards
35.26 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.8
DIFFERENCE
23.95%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
Z. Flowers
(WR)
o58.5 Receiving Yards
70.16 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.7
DIFFERENCE
23.36%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
D. Boston
(WR)
u54.5 Receiving Yards
51.46 UNDER
PROJECTION
-3.0
DIFFERENCE
19.49%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
D. Henry
(RB)
o10.5 Receiving Yards
10.65 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
12.08%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
D. Henry
(RB)
u1.5 Receptions Made
1.29 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
15.23%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
D. Boston
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions Made
3.61 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-14.4%
EV
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
D. Henry
(RB)
u20.5 Rushing Attempts
19.76 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
11.83%
EV
PASSING ATTEMPTS
D. Watson
(QB)
o30.5 Passing Attempts
31.28 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
2.66%
EV
PASSING COMPLETIONS
D. Watson
(QB)
o18.5 Passing Completions
19.38 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
3.26%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. Watson
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.3 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
25.66%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Z. Flowers
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.48 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
19.39%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
M. Andrews
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.33 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
14.17%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. Henry
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.71 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
3.71%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. Boston
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.31 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-8.68%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
H. Fannin Jr.
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.26 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-15.63%
EV
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
D. Watson
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.41 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
19.21%
EV
BAL @ CLE · Trends
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