Cleveland Browns

Picks

Shedeur Sanders and this Cleveland offense should be motivated to put a stamp on this game against a Bengals defense that has been getting carved up. Harold Fannin Jr. has been the preferred option to back, but he exited Week 17 with a groin injury, which opened the door for Jerry Jeudy to step up. Jeudy led the team with seven targets and ran a route on 100% of the dropbacks. He isn’t facing real competition from the wideout depth behind him, and if Fannin is limited or out, Jeudy becomes the clear focal point of this offense. At +300, it’s a strong number that I’d play down to +220, especially for a team that can’t run the ball right now.

The Under is 4-3 in Bengals' games with Burrow at QB and 4-2 when the Browns are road underdogs.

The Bengals are 5-2 ATS when Joe Burrow is under center.

Despite having nothing to play for, the Bengals sound like they’ll send out the starters in Week 18. 

Following Sunday’s one-sided win over Arizona, head coach Zac Taylor told the media that QB Joe Burrow would be on the field for this Battle of Ohio against the Browns. That pumped up the spread from Cincinnati -6.5 to a touchdown and has also sent the total ticking upward.

Bookies opened this number at 43.5 points, but many books have jumped up to the key number off 44 and beyond, with some shops dealing 44.5 O/U.

The Bengals offense is humming with 82 points over the last two outings and Cleveland should be able to chip in with some offense against this bad Bengals defense.

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.6% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 62.2% red zone pass rate.. The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 10th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. Chase Brown has accrued a monstrous 4.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile among running backs. (This may not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs average negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).. Chase Brown ranks in the 94th percentile when it comes to RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) with a remarkable 22.5 mark this year.

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.4% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 10th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.7 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. The predictive model expects Joe Burrow to attempt 37.5 passes in this contest, on balance: the 4th-most among all quarterbacks.. Joe Burrow profiles as one of the most accurate passers in the league this year with a fantastic 68.7% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 81st percentile.. With an excellent 7.74 adjusted yards-per-target (76th percentile) this year, Joe Burrow rates as one of the most efficient QBs in the league.

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.4% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 10th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.7 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. The predictive model expects Ja'Marr Chase to accrue 11.2 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile when it comes to WRs.. Ja'Marr Chase's 33.0% Target Rate this year indicates a noteable boost in his passing offense workload over last year's 27.9% mark.. Ja'Marr Chase has posted many more air yards this season (102.0 per game) than he did last season (90.0 per game).