Cleveland Browns
Picks

4th in AFC North (2 - 6 - 0)

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at

Sun, Nov 9 13:00 ET

CLE @ NYJ Picks

Score a Touchdown

David Njoku Score a Touchdown (Yes: +280)

Best Odds

Pick made: 14 hours ago

Browns OC Tommy Rees will handle play-calling duties this weekend, and that could mean more involvement for one of the team’s best pass-catchers. David Njoku thrived under Rees last year when he was the tight ends coach and pass-game specialist, and he’s in a good spot again Sunday against a weak defense in tough conditions. Njoku leads all Cleveland tight ends in red-zone targets since Week 5 with six, catching four for two touchdowns. I’m playing this at +250.

Score a Touchdown

David Njoku Score a Touchdown (Yes: +400)

Best Odds

Pick made: 15 hours ago

The Browns offense is in the hands of offensive coordinator Tommy Rees in Week 10, which means finding ways to create mismatches with his tight ends. Njoku is often a mismatch for any defender and takes on a Jets stop unit missing multiple pieces due to injuries and trades. New York has allowed six touchdowns to TEs this season – tied for second most – and Njoku has found the end zone in two of his last three games. His anytime touchdown prop is as low as +240 at some books but bet365 is offering +400 on Cleveland’s big man to score another TD in Week 10.

Passing Attempts

Justin Fields o26.5 Passing Attempts (+111)

Projection 28.31 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

With respect to a defense's influence on pace, at 27.91 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Jets to be the 10th-fastest in football (adjusted for context) at the moment.

-126 at DraftKings

Passing Yards

Justin Fields o167.5 Passing Yards (-113)

Projection 178.04 (Over)

Best Odds

o167.5 -113

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o167.5 -113

o172.5 -114

o167.5 -118

o170.5 -110

With respect to a defense's influence on pace, at 27.91 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Jets to be the 10th-fastest in football (adjusted for context) at the moment.. Justin Fields's 133.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season represents a substantial progression in his throwing talent over last season's 108.0 figure.

-113 at DraftKings

Passing Yards

Dillon Gabriel o184.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Projection 193.34 (Over)

Best Odds

o184.5 -110

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o184.5 -110

o186.5 -114

o187.5 -115

o186.5 -117

The predictive model expects the Cleveland Browns offense to be the 4th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.57 seconds per snap.. The Jets pass defense has shown poor efficiency this year, allowing 7.98 adjusted yards-per-target: the 9th-most in the NFL.

-110 at DraftKings

Receiving Yards

QJ

Quinshon Judkins o5.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 12.63 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 5 hours ago

EV Model Rating

The predictive model expects the Cleveland Browns offense to be the 4th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.57 seconds per snap.. The Jets pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency against running backs this year, conceding 6.57 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-most in the NFL.. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New York's collection of LBs has been very bad this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in football.

Receiving Yards

Garrett Wilson o55.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Projection 65.99 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 12 hours ago

EV Model Rating

With respect to a defense's influence on pace, at 27.91 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Jets to be the 10th-fastest in football (adjusted for context) at the moment.. In this contest, Garrett Wilson is projected by our trusted projection set to land in the 94th percentile among WRs with 9.4 targets.. Garrett Wilson's 34.2% Target% this season reflects a noteworthy growth in his pass game workload over last season's 27.3% mark.. The Cleveland Browns pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (68.3%) to WRs this year (68.3%).. This year, the porous Browns defense has been torched for the 7th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing WRs: a colossal 9.03 yards.

-114 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

Harold Fannin Jr. o33.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Projection 39.55 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 11 hours ago

EV Model Rating

The predictive model expects the Cleveland Browns offense to be the 4th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.57 seconds per snap.. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New York's collection of LBs has been very bad this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in football.

Receiving Yards

Breece Hall o13.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Projection 16.27 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 5 hours ago

EV Model Rating

With respect to a defense's influence on pace, at 27.91 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Jets to be the 10th-fastest in football (adjusted for context) at the moment.. The leading projections forecast Breece Hall to total 3.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to running backs.. Breece Hall has compiled a staggering 8.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile among running backs. (This might not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs have negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. Breece Hall's possession skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 76.6% to 87.6%.. Breece Hall's 7.1 adjusted yards per target this year indicates a substantial progression in his receiving prowess over last year's 6.2 rate.

Receiving Yards

Mason Taylor u31.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

Projection 28.34 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: 5 hours ago

EV Model Rating

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 51.7% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.. Opposing offenses have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.. The Jets offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.. The Browns pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (71%) versus tight ends this year (71.0%).. The Cleveland Browns linebackers profile as the 5th-best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Receiving Yards

Jerry Jeudy o39.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Projection 43.32 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 5 hours ago

EV Model Rating

The predictive model expects the Cleveland Browns offense to be the 4th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.57 seconds per snap.. With a sizeable 91.1% Route% (87th percentile) this year, Jerry Jeudy stands as one of the wideouts with the biggest workloads in the NFL.. This week, Jerry Jeudy is expected by our trusted projection set to land in the 76th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 6.5 targets.. This year, the shaky New York Jets defense has been gouged for the 8th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wide receivers: a whopping 8.76 yards.

Rushing Yards

Justin Fields o35.5 Rushing Yards (-118)

Projection 44.64 (Over)

Best Odds

Pick made: 5 hours ago

EV Model Rating

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Jets to run on 48.3% of their plays: the 2nd-highest clip on the slate this week.. With respect to a defense's influence on pace, at 27.91 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Jets to be the 10th-fastest in football (adjusted for context) at the moment.. The predictive model expects Justin Fields to notch 8.6 carries in this week's contest, on balance: the most out of all quarterbacks.. Justin Fields has been a more integral piece of his team's running game this year (25.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (19.5%).. Justin Fields has rushed for many more yards per game (34.0) this year than he did last year (29.0).

Consensus Picks

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'JAL25' picks Cleveland vs N.Y. Jets to go Under (38.5)

JAL25 is #1 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +5500 units on the season.

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'JAL25' is picking Cleveland to cover (+2.0)

JAL25 is #1 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +5500 units on the season.

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'Going4Gold' is picking Cleveland to cover (+2.0)

Going4Gold is #10 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (0-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.

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'Lucknuts' is picking Cleveland to cover (+1.5)

Lucknuts is #2 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (5-0-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'Lucknuts' picks Cleveland vs N.Y. Jets to go Over (38.5)

Lucknuts is #2 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (5-0-0) and +3900 units on the season.

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'nahfetest' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (+2.5)

nahfetest is #4 on picking games that N.Y. Jets are in with a record of (6-2-0) and +3800 units on the season.

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'chiefchief888' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (-1.5)

chiefchief888 is #5 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (6-2-0) and +4850 units on the season.

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'chiefchief888' picks Cleveland vs N.Y. Jets to go Over (38.5)

chiefchief888 is #5 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (6-2-0) and +4850 units on the season.

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'tolro234' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (-1.5)

tolro234 is #6 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (6-2-0) and +4850 units on the season.

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'tolro234' picks Cleveland vs N.Y. Jets to go Over (38.5)

tolro234 is #6 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (6-2-0) and +4850 units on the season.

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'dahnguyen' is picking Cleveland to cover (+1.5)

dahnguyen is #7 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +4850 units on the season.

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'dahnguyen' picks Cleveland vs N.Y. Jets to go Under (38.5)

dahnguyen is #7 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +4850 units on the season.

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'livelywee55' is picking N.Y. Jets to cover (-1.5)

livelywee55 is #8 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +4700 units on the season.

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'livelywee55' picks Cleveland vs N.Y. Jets to go Under (37.5)

livelywee55 is #8 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +4700 units on the season.

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