Cleveland Browns

4th in AFC North (3 - 10 - 0)

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CLECleveland Cleveland
at
Chicago CHIChicago
Sun, Dec 14 13:00 ET

CLE @ CHI Picks

NFL Picks
Receiving Yards
Harold Fannin Jr. logo Harold Fannin Jr. o47.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Best Odds
o47.5 -110 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 11 hours ago
Jason Ence image
Jason Ence
Betting Analyst
o47.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
o49.5  -110
o47.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o47.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
o47.5  -113
These are quick bet odds

Chicago is allowing the fifth-most yards per pass attempt on the NFL this season, and tight ends have had plenty of success against the Bears.

That's good news for Harold Fannin Jr, who racked up a career-high 40 routes run against the Titans and will be the primary tight end with the injury to David Njoku.

Fannin has been the first read for more than 25% of the pass plays where he's been on the field over the past three games, and Shedeur Sanders is going to look for him often, given the issues with his offensive line.

The Bears have allowed 52+ yards to opposing tight ends in six of their last eight games, and Fannin will just be the next name on that list. 

 

Read Full Analysis
Touchdowns
Harold Fannin Jr. logo Harold Fannin Jr. o0.5 Touchdowns (+295)
Best Odds
o0.5 +280 bet365
Pick made: 2 days ago
Josh Inglis image
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
o0.5  +270
These are quick bet odds
o0.5  +280
o0.5  +270
These are quick bet odds
o0.5  +280
o0.5  +270
These are quick bet odds

Harold Fannin cashed for us last week at +300, and even after an 8/114/1 performance against the Titans, his touchdown price hasn’t moved much. He’s Shedeur Sanders’ favorite target, and the David Njoku injury is only increasing his involvement. Fannin might be the only TE/WR on this roster with red-zone looks from Sanders, and he’s scored in back-to-back weeks. A fair price here should be around +210 to +220.

Game Prop
Cleveland Browns logo u15.5 Team Total (-107)
Best Odds
u23.5 -109 Caesars
Pick made: 4 days ago
Jason Logan image
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst
u23.5  -110
u13.5  +100
u14.5  -113
u14.5  -125
u23.5  -109

I expect rookie QB Shedeur Sanders to come back to earth in this road start. He was able to overcome a horrible Raiders defense in his first pro outing but the Bears defense is a much more dangerous test. Chicago’s stop unit was soft to start the schedule but has improved since Week 10, more specifically against the pass. The Bears run a high rate of man-to-man coverage and thrive on takeaways, with a league high 18 interceptions. Sanders has played three zone-heavy secondaries in Las Vegas, San Francisco and Tennessee – three defenses that also sit 24th or worse in EPA allowed per dropback. Sanders, who completion rate dips below 42% versus man coverage, will be forced to throw into tight windows against a ball-hawking secondary.

Passing Attempts
Shedeur Sanders logo
Shedeur Sanders o29.5 Passing Attempts (-105)
Projection 32.36 (Over)
Best Odds
o29.5 -105 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
o29.5  -105
These are quick bet odds
o29.5  -110
o29.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o30.5  +105
These are quick bet odds
o30.5  -125
An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Browns being a huge -7.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 136.1 offensive plays run: the most among all games this week.
-105 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Passing Yards
Caleb Williams logo
Caleb Williams u192.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Projection 175.43 (Under)
Best Odds
u191.5 -110 bet365
Pick made: 16 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u190.5  -112
u191.5  -110
u191.5  -114
u191.5  -115
u190.5  -120
This game's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Bears, who are a heavy favorite by 7.5 points.. The projections expect the Chicago Bears as the 5th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 50.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Opposing teams teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (just 30.5 per game) this year.. Opposing QBs have thrown for the 6th-fewest yards in the NFL (just 191.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the Browns defense this year.. The Browns linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best unit in the league this year in defending receivers.
-110 at bet365
Passing Yards
Shedeur Sanders logo
Shedeur Sanders u185.5 Passing Yards (-120)
Projection 177.58 (Under)
Best Odds
u185.5 -120 bet365
Pick made: 2 days ago
EV Model Rating
u182.5  -111
These are quick bet odds
u185.5  -120
u181.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
u176.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
u179.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
At the present time, the 8th-least pass-oriented team in the league (58.1% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Browns.. Opposing QBs have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game against the Bears defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league.. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the effect it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Cleveland Browns profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year.
-120 at bet365
Interceptions Thrown
Shedeur Sanders logo
Shedeur Sanders u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+150)
Projection 0.42 (Under)
Best Odds
u0.5 +155 bet365
Pick made: 16 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u0.5  +152
These are quick bet odds
u0.5  +155
u0.5  +142
u0.5  +145
These are quick bet odds
u0.5  +140
At the present time, the 8th-least pass-oriented team in the league (58.1% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Browns.. Opposing QBs have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game against the Bears defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league.. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the effect it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Cleveland Browns profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year.. Chicago's defense profiles as the best in the NFL this year as it relates to forcing interceptions, averaging 1.20 per game.
+155 at bet365
Receiving Yards
Quinshon Judkins logo
Quinshon Judkins o9.5 Receiving Yards (+105)
Projection 16.29 (Over)
Best Odds
o9.5 +105 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 17 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o10.5  -107
o9.5  -110
o9.5  -114
o9.5  +105
These are quick bet odds
o9.5  -115
An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Browns being a huge -7.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 136.1 offensive plays run: the most among all games this week.. The Chicago Bears linebackers project as the 2nd-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to rushing the passer.
+105 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Colston Loveland logo
Colston Loveland u32.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 29.06 (Under)
Best Odds
u35.5 -110 bet365
Pick made: 19 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u35.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
u35.5  -110
u34.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
u34.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
u34.5  -135
These are quick bet odds
This game's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Bears, who are a heavy favorite by 7.5 points.. The projections expect the Chicago Bears as the 5th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 50.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Opposing teams teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (just 30.5 per game) this year.. This year, the fierce Browns defense has surrendered a puny 46.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 8th-fewest in football.. This year, the daunting Browns defense has surrendered a measly 71.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 9th-lowest rate in the league.
-110 at bet365
Receiving Yards
D'Andre Swift logo
D'Andre Swift o14.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 17.12 (Over)
Best Odds
o13.5 -108 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 30 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
o13.5  -108
These are quick bet odds
o13.5  -110
o14.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o13.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o13.5  -120
These are quick bet odds
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see 136.7 offensive plays run: the most out of all the games this week.. The Bears have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 62.1 plays per game.. In this week's game, D'Andre Swift is forecasted by the projections to secure a spot in the 82nd percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.3 targets.. With an extraordinary 10.6% Target Share (84th percentile) this year, D'Andre Swift stands among the pass-game running backs with the biggest workloads in football.. When it comes to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Bears ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year.
-108 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Luther Burden III logo
Luther Burden III o32.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 42.83 (Over)
Best Odds
o30.5 -118 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 12 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
o39.5  -106
These are quick bet odds
o45.5  -110
o39.5  -108
These are quick bet odds
o30.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
o39.5  -107
These are quick bet odds
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see 136.7 offensive plays run: the most out of all the games this week.. The Bears have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 62.1 plays per game.. When it comes to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Bears ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year.
-118 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Jerry Jeudy logo
Jerry Jeudy o36.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
Projection 40.24 (Over)
Best Odds
o36.5 -110 bet365
Pick made: 17 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o37.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
o36.5  -110
o38.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o36.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
o37.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Browns being a huge -7.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 136.7 offensive plays run: the most among all games this week.. Jerry Jeudy has run a route on 91.2% of his offense's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 88th percentile when it comes to wideouts.. In this week's contest, Jerry Jeudy is forecasted by the projections to slot into the 85th percentile among wideouts with 7.6 targets.. This year, the deficient Bears pass defense has yielded a massive 67.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 5th-highest rate in the NFL.
-110 at bet365
Rushing Yards
Shedeur Sanders logo
Shedeur Sanders o7.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Projection 15.05 (Over)
Best Odds
o7.5 -113 Caesars
Pick made: 12 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
o8.5  -109
o8.5  -110
o7.5  -122
o8.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
o7.5  -113
At the moment, the 8th-most run-focused offense in football (41.9% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Browns.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 136.7 offensive plays run: the most among all games this week.. The Chicago Bears defense has produced the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing ground games this year, surrendering 5.16 adjusted yards-per-carry.. The Bears defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-worst DT corps in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.
-113 at Caesars

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Consensus Picks

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Consensus Picks

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Consensus Picks

Top User Picks

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User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.
Spread

'tolro234' is picking Cleveland to cover (+7.5)

tolro234 is #1 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +8800 units on the season.

Spread
CLE
CHI
Spread
+7.5 -106
-7.5 +104
Total

'tolro234' picks Cleveland vs Chicago to go Under (39.5)

tolro234 is #1 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +8800 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
38.5 +100
39.5 -131
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'csmooth515' is picking Chicago to cover (-7.0)

csmooth515 is #10 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (9-4-0) and +4600 units on the season.

Spread
CLE
CHI
Spread
+7.5 -106
-7.5 +104
Total

'csmooth515' picks Cleveland vs Chicago to go Under (39.5)

csmooth515 is #10 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (9-4-0) and +4600 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
38.5 +100
39.5 -131
Spread

'jenjay23' is picking Cleveland to cover (+7.5)

jenjay23 is #2 on picking games that Chicago is in with a record of (12-1-0) and +5650 units on the season.

Spread
CLE
CHI
Spread
+7.5 -106
-7.5 +104
Total

'jenjay23' picks Cleveland vs Chicago to go Over (41.0)

jenjay23 is #2 on picking games that Chicago is in with a record of (12-1-0) and +5650 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
38.5 +100
39.5 -131
Spread

'livelywee55' is picking Chicago to cover (-7.0)

livelywee55 is #3 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (9-1-0) and +7100 units on the season.

Spread
CLE
CHI
Spread
+7.5 -106
-7.5 +104
Total

'livelywee55' picks Cleveland vs Chicago to go Over (39.5)

livelywee55 is #3 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (9-1-0) and +7100 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
38.5 +100
39.5 -131
Spread

'clairvoyant' is picking Chicago to cover (-7.5)

clairvoyant is #4 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +5700 units on the season.

Spread
CLE
CHI
Spread
+7.5 -106
-7.5 +104
Total

'clairvoyant' picks Cleveland vs Chicago to go Under (39.0)

clairvoyant is #4 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +5700 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
38.5 +100
39.5 -131
Spread

'pittsburghphil' is picking Chicago to cover (-7.0)

pittsburghphil is #5 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (9-4-0) and +5650 units on the season.

Spread
CLE
CHI
Spread
+7.5 -106
-7.5 +104
Total

'pittsburghphil' picks Cleveland vs Chicago to go Under (40.0)

pittsburghphil is #5 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (9-4-0) and +5650 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
38.5 +100
39.5 -131
Spread

'bobalten5000' is picking Cleveland to cover (+7.5)

bobalten5000 is #5 on picking games that Chicago is in with a record of (0-0-0) and +4950 units on the season.

Spread
CLE
CHI
Spread
+7.5 -106
-7.5 +104
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'gcotton69' is picking Chicago to cover (-7.5)

gcotton69 is #6 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +5650 units on the season.

Spread
CLE
CHI
Spread
+7.5 -106
-7.5 +104
Total

'gcotton69' picks Cleveland vs Chicago to go Over (39.5)

gcotton69 is #6 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +5650 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
38.5 +100
39.5 -131
Spread

'Nitetripper' is picking Chicago to cover (-7.5)

Nitetripper is #7 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (0-0-0) and +5450 units on the season.

Spread
CLE
CHI
Spread
+7.5 -106
-7.5 +104
Total

'mrsc328' picks Cleveland vs Chicago to go Under (39.5)

mrsc328 is #8 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (6-2-1) and +5300 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
38.5 +100
39.5 -131
Spread

'mrsc328' is picking Cleveland to cover (+7.5)

mrsc328 is #8 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (6-2-1) and +5300 units on the season.

Spread
CLE
CHI
Spread
+7.5 -106
-7.5 +104
Spread

'stakay125' is picking Cleveland to cover (+7.5)

stakay125 is #9 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (9-4-0) and +4600 units on the season.

Spread
CLE
CHI
Spread
+7.5 -106
-7.5 +104
Total

'stakay125' picks Cleveland vs Chicago to go Under (39.5)

stakay125 is #9 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (9-4-0) and +4600 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
38.5 +100
39.5 -131

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