Cleveland Browns

4th in AFC North (3 - 11 - 0)

Next Game

BUFBuffalo Buffalo
at
Cleveland CLECleveland
Sun, Dec 21 13:00 ET

BUF @ CLE Picks

NFL Picks
Score a Touchdown
Dawson Knox logo Dawson Knox Score a Touchdown (Yes: +300)
Best Odds
 +4500 BetMGM
Pick made: 21 hours ago
Josh Inglis image
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
 +310
 +300
 +300
 +4500
 +305

Even with Dalton Kincaid back, Dawson Knox has stayed heavily involved near the goal line. He scored twice last week and had another touchdown erased by a penalty in Week 14. Over the last two games, Knox has four targets inside the 10 compared to three for Kincaid (Jackson Hawes has one). Cleveland has allowed just one quarterback rushing touchdown all season, which points to more Josh Allen passing near the goal line in another must-win spot. Kincaid remains the more dynamic playmaker, but it was Knox who played more snaps and ran more routes last week.

Score a Touchdown
James Cook III logo
James Cook III Score a Touchdown (Yes: -135)
Projection 0.74 (Yes)
Best Odds
 +425 BetMGM
Pick made: 2 days ago
EV Model Rating
 -135
 -130
 -135
 +425
 -129
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.4 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. James Cook has posted a whopping 1.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among RBs. (That may not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. James Cook's 13.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 77th percentile for running backs.. The Bills offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.. James Cook's 94.4% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a noteworthy growth in his receiving ability over last year's 84.7% figure.
+425 at BetMGM
Passing Yards
Josh Allen logo
Josh Allen u213.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Projection 199.89 (Under)
Best Odds
u213.5 -114 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 16 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
u211.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
u207.5  -110
u213.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
u207.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
u210.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
This game's line implies an extreme rushing game script for the Bills, who are a huge favorite by 10.5 points.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to pass on 50.8% of their chances: the lowest rate on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect Josh Allen to attempt 30.8 passes this week, on average: the 2nd-fewest out of all QBs.. Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.. Josh Allen has passed for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (211.0) this year than he did last year (237.0).
-114 at FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Quinshon Judkins logo
Quinshon Judkins o13.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 17.73 (Over)
Best Odds
o13.5 -110 bet365
Pick made: 16 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
 -
o13.5  -110
 -
o13.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
 -
The Browns are a massive 10.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see 130.4 plays on offense run: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.. The Buffalo Bills safeties rank as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in football this year in regard to rushing the passer.
-110 at bet365
Receiving Yards
Jerry Jeudy logo
Jerry Jeudy o31.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 34.57 (Over)
Best Odds
o31.5 -110 bet365
Pick made: 16 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
 -
o31.5  -110
 -
o31.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
 -
The Browns are a massive 10.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see 130.4 plays on offense run: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.. With an elite 91.8% Route Participation% (88th percentile) this year, Jerry Jeudy places among the wideouts with the biggest workloads in the NFL.. In this game, Jerry Jeudy is forecasted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 77th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 6.6 targets.. The Bills cornerbacks profile as the 9th-worst unit in football this year in defending pass-catchers.
-110 at bet365
Receiving Yards
Dalton Kincaid logo
Dalton Kincaid u35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 33.28 (Under)
Best Odds
u35.5 -110 bet365
Pick made: 16 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
 -
u35.5  -110
 -
u35.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
 -
This game's line implies an extreme rushing game script for the Bills, who are a huge favorite by 10.5 points.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to pass on 50.8% of their chances: the lowest rate on the slate this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.. Dalton Kincaid's 37.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 43.0.. Dalton Kincaid's talent in picking up extra yardage have worsened this year, accumulating just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.16 mark last year.
-110 at bet365
Rushing Yards
Shedeur Sanders logo
Shedeur Sanders o9.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
Projection 16.91 (Over)
Best Odds
o8.5 -114 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 16 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
o9.5  -105
These are quick bet odds
o10.5  -110
o8.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o10.5  -120
These are quick bet odds
o8.5  -120
These are quick bet odds
Our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns to be the 10th-most run-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 41.2% run rate.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see 130.4 plays on offense run: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.. This year, the shaky Bills run defense has conceded a monstrous 142.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 3rd-worst in football.. As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Buffalo's unit has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.
-114 at FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Rushing Yards
Quinshon Judkins logo
Quinshon Judkins o58.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
Projection 77.94 (Over)
Best Odds
o58.5 -111 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 16 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
o58.5  -111
These are quick bet odds
o59.5  -110
o58.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o59.5  -130
These are quick bet odds
o59.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
Our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns to be the 10th-most run-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 41.2% run rate.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see 130.4 plays on offense run: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.. This year, the shaky Bills run defense has conceded a monstrous 142.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 3rd-worst in football.. As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Buffalo's unit has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.
-111 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Rushing Yards
James Cook III logo
James Cook III o87.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Projection 94.2 (Over)
Best Odds
o85.5 -115 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 16 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
o87.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
o86.5  -115
o87.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o85.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o86.5  -122
These are quick bet odds
This game's line implies an extreme rushing game script for the Bills, who are a huge favorite by 10.5 points.. Our trusted projections expect the Bills as the most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.2% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.4 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The leading projections forecast James Cook to earn 21.7 carries in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 99th percentile among running backs.. James Cook's 90.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year indicates a material boost in his rushing prowess over last year's 68.0 figure.
-115 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Rushing Attempts
Quinshon Judkins logo
Quinshon Judkins o15.5 Rushing Attempts (-120)
Projection 18.87 (Over)
Best Odds
o15.5 -120 bet365
Pick made: 16 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
o16.5  -122
o15.5  -120
o16.5  -136
o15.5  -145
o16.5  -120
Our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns to be the 10th-most run-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 41.2% run rate.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see 130.4 plays on offense run: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.. As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Buffalo's unit has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.
-120 at bet365
Rushing Yards
Josh Allen logo
Josh Allen o33.5 Rushing Yards (-116)
Projection 36.47 (Over)
Best Odds
o33.5 -116 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o33.5  -116
These are quick bet odds
o35.5  -110
o34.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o35.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
o34.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
This game's line implies an extreme rushing game script for the Bills, who are a huge favorite by 10.5 points.. Our trusted projections expect the Bills as the most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.2% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.4 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The projections expect Josh Allen to earn 7.4 rush attempts in this game, on balance: the 2nd-most out of all QBs.. Josh Allen has generated 34.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in football among quarterbacks (97th percentile).
-116 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds

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Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.
Spread

64% picking Buffalo

64%
36%

Total Picks BUF 305, CLE 169

Spread
BUF
CLE
Spread
-10.5 -102
+10.5 -106

Top User Picks

More Picks

User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.
Spread

'charro23' is picking Cleveland to cover (+8.5)

charro23 is #1 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (13-1-0) and +7420 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
CLE
Spread
-10.5 -102
+10.5 -106
Total

'charro23' picks Buffalo vs Cleveland to go Under (41.5)

charro23 is #1 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (13-1-0) and +7420 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
40.5 -119
41.5 -109
Spread

'tolro234' is picking Buffalo to cover (-8.5)

tolro234 is #1 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (11-3-0) and +8750 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
CLE
Spread
-10.5 -102
+10.5 -106
Total

'tolro234' picks Buffalo vs Cleveland to go Under (41.5)

tolro234 is #1 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (11-3-0) and +8750 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
40.5 -119
41.5 -109
Spread

'spiveytexas61' is picking Buffalo to cover (-8.5)

spiveytexas61 is #10 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (9-5-0) and +4550 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
CLE
Spread
-10.5 -102
+10.5 -106
Total

'spiveytexas61' picks Buffalo vs Cleveland to go Over (41.5)

spiveytexas61 is #10 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (9-5-0) and +4550 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
40.5 -119
41.5 -109
Spread

'mrsc328' is picking Cleveland to cover (+10.0)

mrsc328 is #10 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (7-2-1) and +5250 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
CLE
Spread
-10.5 -102
+10.5 -106
Total

'mrsc328' picks Buffalo vs Cleveland to go Over (42.0)

mrsc328 is #10 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (7-2-1) and +5250 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
40.5 -119
41.5 -109
Spread

'livelywee55' is picking Cleveland to cover (+8.5)

livelywee55 is #3 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +7050 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
CLE
Spread
-10.5 -102
+10.5 -106
Total

'livelywee55' picks Buffalo vs Cleveland to go Under (41.5)

livelywee55 is #3 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +7050 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
40.5 -119
41.5 -109
Total

'johnnyjbd24' picks Buffalo vs Cleveland to go Under (42.0)

johnnyjbd24 is #3 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +5800 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
40.5 -119
41.5 -109
Spread

'johnnyjbd24' is picking Buffalo to cover (-10.0)

johnnyjbd24 is #3 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +5800 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
CLE
Spread
-10.5 -102
+10.5 -106
Spread

'pittsburghphil' is picking Cleveland to cover (+10.0)

pittsburghphil is #5 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (10-4-0) and +6650 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
CLE
Spread
-10.5 -102
+10.5 -106
Total

'pittsburghphil' picks Buffalo vs Cleveland to go Under (42.5)

pittsburghphil is #5 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (10-4-0) and +6650 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
40.5 -119
41.5 -109
Spread

'Nitetripper' is picking Cleveland to cover (+10.0)

Nitetripper is #6 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (0-0-0) and +5950 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
CLE
Spread
-10.5 -102
+10.5 -106
Spread

'Insiderone777' is picking Buffalo to cover (-10.0)

Insiderone777 is #7 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +4750 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
CLE
Spread
-10.5 -102
+10.5 -106
Spread

'gcotton69' is picking Buffalo to cover (-10.0)

gcotton69 is #7 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (10-4-0) and +5600 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
CLE
Spread
-10.5 -102
+10.5 -106
Total

'Insiderone777' picks Buffalo vs Cleveland to go Over (42.5)

Insiderone777 is #7 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +4750 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
40.5 -119
41.5 -109
Total

'gcotton69' picks Buffalo vs Cleveland to go Under (42.0)

gcotton69 is #7 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (10-4-0) and +5600 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
40.5 -119
41.5 -109
Spread

'csmooth515' is picking Buffalo to cover (-8.5)

csmooth515 is #8 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (10-4-0) and +5600 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
CLE
Spread
-10.5 -102
+10.5 -106
Total

'csmooth515' picks Buffalo vs Cleveland to go Under (41.5)

csmooth515 is #8 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (10-4-0) and +5600 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
40.5 -119
41.5 -109

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