Cleveland Browns
Picks

4th in AFC North (3 - 12 - 0)

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PITPittsburgh

CLECleveland

Sun, Dec 28 13:00 ET

PIT @ CLE Picks

NFL Picks

MoneyLine

CLE (+146)

Best Odds

+155

Pick made: 10 hours ago

+150

+155

+146

+140

+147

The Browns have given up the second-fewest scrimmage yards per game (277.8), have the third-most sacks, and have the soon-to-be DMVP in Myles Garrett.

They’ve improved on offense, too, with Shedeur Sanders, averaging 16.6 points per game, only marginally more than the 15.8 they average without him.

However, you have to take their current injuries into account, and they pass the eye test a lot more with Sanders at QB.

He might not be the long-term answer, but he’s solid enough to get the Browns and their excellent defense across the line on home soil.

Read Full Analysis

Score a Touchdown

Jaylen Warren Score a Touchdown (Yes: +220)

Best Odds

+250

Pick made: 2 days ago

+245

+190

+250

+195

+225

Make this price make sense. Warren is coming off a two-touchdown performance with 143 rushing yards against Detroit, continues to handle the majority of the workload, and owns the red-zone carries. He was priced as short as +110 for a TD just two games ago, and this number sits roughly 70 cents longer than where he closed last week. The matchup only strengthens the case. Cleveland isn’t a dominant offense capable of forcing negative game script, and the Browns were just gashed by James Cook for 117 yards and two scores on 16 carries. With plenty on the line for Pittsburgh and DK Metcalf sidelined, the Steelers may lean even more on Warren, who has been their most reliable offensive weapon entering Week 17. Even at +150, this would still be worth a bet.

Total

o34.5 (-112)

Best Odds

o33.5 -115

Pick made: 4 days ago

o34.5 -105

o34.0 -110

o34.5 -104

o33.5 -115

o34.5 -107

The Over is 5-2 in games in which the Steelers are the road team and with such a low total, we can see both teams score enough to cover.

Spread

CLE +4.5 (-115)

Best Odds

+3.0 -102

Pick made: 4 days ago

+3.0 -102

+3.0 -105

+3.0 -104

The Steelers are 3-4 ATS on the road this season and 1-2 ATS when they’re road favorites. So we're taking an improving Browns.

Passing Attempts

Aaron Rodgers o29.5 Passing Attempts (+108)

Projection 33.38 (Over)

Best Odds

o29.5 +108

Pick made: 14 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o29.5 -101

o29.5 -135

o29.5 -108

o29.5 -105

o29.5 +108

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have 132.7 total plays called: the 3rd-most among all games this week.

+108 at Caesars

Passing Yards

Aaron Rodgers o184.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Projection 191.92 (Over)

Best Odds

o184.5 -110

Pick made: 10 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o186.5 -113

o184.5 -110

o187.5 -114

o184.5 -115

o186.5 -107

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have 132.7 total plays called: the 3rd-most among all games this week.. The Pittsburgh O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.. Aaron Rodgers's 67.2% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a significant boost in his throwing precision over last season's 63.8% rate.

-110 at bet365

Interceptions Thrown

Shedeur Sanders u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+154)

Projection 0.42 (Under)

Best Odds

u0.5 +154

Pick made: 3 days ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +152

u0.5 +150

u0.5 +154

u0.5 +145

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.. When talking about protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Browns profiles as the worst in football this year.. When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Pittsburgh's group of CBs has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.

+154 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

Harold Fannin Jr. o46.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 53.63 (Over)

Best Odds

o46.5 -110

Pick made: 11 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o46.5 -110

o46.5 -118

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Browns are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their standard game plan.. The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing offenses have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 3rd-most in football.. This year, the poor Pittsburgh Steelers defense has surrendered a monstrous 70.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing tight ends: the 2nd-worst in football.. The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has given up the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (81.9%) to tight ends this year (81.9%).

-110 at bet365

Rushing Yards

Shedeur Sanders o12.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 17.16 (Over)

Best Odds

o12.5 -110

Pick made: 9 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o12.5 -110

o12.5 -115

The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

-110 at bet365

Rushing Yards

Dylan Sampson o41.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 48.94 (Over)

Best Odds

o41.5 -110

Pick made: 11 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o41.5 -110

o41.5 -118

-110 at bet365

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Spread

65% picking Pittsburgh

65% 65%

35% 35%

Total Picks PIT 442, CLE 233

Spread

PIT

CLE

Spread

-3.0 -111

+3.5 -118

Total

63% picking Pittsburgh vs Cleveland to go Over

63% 63%

37% 37%

Total PicksPIT 257, CLE 152

Total

Over

Under

Total

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PIT @ CLE Picks

Consensus Picks

65% picking Pittsburgh

63% picking Pittsburgh vs Cleveland to go Over

Top User Picks

'stom5900' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (-3.5)

'stom5900' picks Pittsburgh vs Cleveland to go Over (34.5)

'Haloman' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (-3.0)

'Haloman' picks Pittsburgh vs Cleveland to go Over (33.5)

'tolro234' is picking Cleveland to cover (+4.5)

'bigsmoke21169' picks Pittsburgh vs Cleveland to go Over (34.5)

'bigsmoke21169' is picking Cleveland to cover (+4.5)

'tolro234' picks Pittsburgh vs Cleveland to go Under (34.0)

'bugsy1958' picks Pittsburgh vs Cleveland to go Over (34.5)

'bugsy1958' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (-4.5)

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'livelywee55' picks Pittsburgh vs Cleveland to go Under (34.5)

'pittsburghphil' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (-4.5)

'pittsburghphil' picks Pittsburgh vs Cleveland to go Over (34.5)

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'Nitetripper' is picking Cleveland to cover (+4.5)

'OGScotty' picks Pittsburgh vs Cleveland to go Over (34.5)

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'HOLLANDANDITALY' is picking Pittsburgh to cover (-3.0)

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