Cleveland Browns

4th in AFC North (2 - 7 - 0)

Next Game

BALBaltimore Baltimore
at
Cleveland CLECleveland
Sun, Nov 16 16:25 ET

BAL @ CLE Picks

NFL Picks
Score a Touchdown
Charlie Kolar logo Charlie Kolar Score a Touchdown (Yes: +1100)
Best Odds
 +1100 DraftKings
Pick made: yesterday
Josh Inglis image
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
 +1100
 +800
 +950
 -
 +1000

I might be taking a few too many shots in Week 11, but DraftKings is hanging a great number on Charlie Kolar, who’s scored in two of his last three games. He’s been priced at +850, +950, and +1700 during that stretch, and with the move back to Lamar Jackson plus a tough Browns run defense, the setup makes sense. Kolar played 44% of the snaps last week as Baltimore used 11 personnel on just 18% of plays against Minnesota. Despite being the team’s No. 3 tight end, he’s seeing roughly the same target volume as DeAndre Hopkins — who’s +330 to score. I’ll take a half-unit shot on Kolar this week, banking on some play-action near the goal line to get No. 88 another touchdown.

Spread
Baltimore Ravens logo BAL -8.5 (-110)
Best Odds
-7.5 -108 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 3 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
-7.5  -108
These are quick bet odds
-7.5  -110
-7.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
-7.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
-7.5  -109
These are quick bet odds

The Ravens have their sights on top spot in the AFC North, and Baltimore has won three straight while averaging 28.3 points per game and allowing just 13.6 per. Cleveland doesn’t check out as a formidable foe, either. The Brownies are 2-7, and quarterback Dillon Gabriel has thrown for a pedestrian 5.0 yards per attempt and 58.2 completion percentage while ranking last in EPA+COPE composite since taking over in Week 5. Ravens roll in Week 11.

Passing Completions
Dillon Gabriel logo
Dillon Gabriel u20.5 Passing Completions (-125)
Projection 18.17 (Under)
Best Odds
u20.5 -125 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 15 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u19.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
 -
u20.5  -146
These are quick bet odds
u20.5  -125
These are quick bet odds
u19.5  -108
Our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns to be the 6th-least pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.9% pass rate.. In regards to pass protection (and the significance it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Cleveland Browns grades out as the worst in football this year.. The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the best collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
-125 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Passing Attempts
Dillon Gabriel logo
Dillon Gabriel u33.5 Passing Attempts (-123)
Projection 30.76 (Under)
Best Odds
u33.5 -123 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 15 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u33.5  -123
These are quick bet odds
 -
u33.5  -140
These are quick bet odds
u32.5  -120
These are quick bet odds
u32.5  -112
Our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns to be the 6th-least pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.9% pass rate.
-123 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Passing Yards
Lamar Jackson logo
Lamar Jackson u209.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Projection 189.25 (Under)
Best Odds
u209.5 -114 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 2 days ago
EV Model Rating
u203.5  -112
These are quick bet odds
 -
u209.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
u209.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
u206.5  -125
These are quick bet odds
This week's spread indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Ravens, who are a heavy favorite by 7.5 points.. The model projects the Ravens to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 49.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The Baltimore Ravens have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 51.6 plays per game.. Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being forecasted in this game) usually correlate with lessened passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and higher run volume.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Browns defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
-114 at FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Quinshon Judkins logo
Quinshon Judkins o7.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 13 (Over)
Best Odds
o7.5 -110 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 14 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 -
 -
 -
o7.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
 -
This week's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Browns, who are big -7.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast the Browns to run the 5th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.. The Cleveland Browns have run the 2nd-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.3 plays per game.. Opposing QBs have averaged 40.1 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in football.. This year, the poor Ravens defense has surrendered a colossal 38.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing running backs: the 8th-worst in football.
-110 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Derrick Henry logo
Derrick Henry o6.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 9.84 (Over)
Best Odds
o6.5 -115 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 14 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 -
 -
 -
o6.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
 -
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to see 132.1 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number among all games this week.. When talking about air yards, Derrick Henry ranks in the lofty 78th percentile among running backs this year, accumulating a remarkable 1.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more remarkable than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).
-115 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Harold Fannin Jr. logo
Harold Fannin Jr. o34.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Projection 40.71 (Over)
Best Odds
o34.5 -120 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 13 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o38.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
 -
o36.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o34.5  -120
These are quick bet odds
o36.5  -121
These are quick bet odds
This week's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Browns, who are big -7.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast the Browns to run the 5th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.. The Cleveland Browns have run the 2nd-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.3 plays per game.. Opposing QBs have averaged 40.1 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in football.. This year, the shaky Baltimore Ravens pass defense has been gouged for a colossal 90.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the biggest rate in the NFL.
-120 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Jerry Jeudy logo
Jerry Jeudy o38.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
Projection 41.86 (Over)
Best Odds
o38.5 -118 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 14 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o42.5  -111
These are quick bet odds
 -
o42.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o38.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
o42.5  -128
These are quick bet odds
This week's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Browns, who are big -7.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast the Browns to run the 5th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.. The Cleveland Browns have run the 2nd-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.3 plays per game.. Opposing QBs have averaged 40.1 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in football.. Jerry Jeudy has run a route on 91.6% of his offense's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 87th percentile among WRs.
-118 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Rushing Yards
Quinshon Judkins logo
Quinshon Judkins o69.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Projection 83.16 (Over)
Best Odds
o69.5 -115 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o69.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
 -
o70.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o70.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o70.5  -117
These are quick bet odds
Right now, the 7th-most run-heavy team in the NFL (41.1% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Cleveland Browns.. Our trusted projections expect this game to boast the 4th-fastest tempo on the slate this week, averaging 25.89 seconds per play based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The Cleveland Browns have run the 2nd-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.3 plays per game.. Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being forecasted in this game) typically cause lessened passing efficiency, reduced air attack volume, and increased rush volume.. This year, the tough Baltimore Ravens run defense has surrendered a puny 4.99 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing squads: the 24th-smallest rate in the league.
-115 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Rushing Yards
Lamar Jackson logo
Lamar Jackson o31.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Projection 39.92 (Over)
Best Odds
o31.5 -114 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o31.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
 -
o34.5  -114
o33.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
o33.5  -117
These are quick bet odds
This week's spread indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Ravens, who are a heavy favorite by 7.5 points.. Our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens as the most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.5% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects this game to boast the 4th-quickest tempo among all games this week, averaging 25.89 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being forecasted in this game) usually correlate with lessened passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and higher run volume.. In this contest, Lamar Jackson is predicted by the predictive model to accrue the 2nd-most rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 7.7.
-114 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Rushing Yards
Derrick Henry logo
Derrick Henry o74.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Projection 84.15 (Over)
Best Odds
o74.5 -110 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o74.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
 -
o76.5  -114
o75.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
o75.5  -102
These are quick bet odds
This week's spread indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Ravens, who are a heavy favorite by 7.5 points.. Our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens as the most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.5% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects this game to boast the 4th-quickest tempo among all games this week, averaging 25.89 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being forecasted in this game) usually correlate with lessened passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and higher run volume.. In this game, Derrick Henry is predicted by the projection model to place in the 97th percentile when it comes to RBs with 20.1 rush attempts.
-110 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds

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Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.
Spread

64% picking Baltimore

64%
36%

Total Picks BAL 440, CLE 248

Spread
BAL
CLE
Spread
-6.5 -159
+8.0 -113

Top User Picks

More Picks

User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.
Total

'SUNIN65' picks Baltimore vs Cleveland to go Over (41.5)

SUNIN65 is #10 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (8-1-0) and +5850 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
38.5 -106
39 -111
Spread

'SUNIN65' is picking Baltimore to cover (-8.5)

SUNIN65 is #10 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (8-1-0) and +5850 units on the season.

Spread
BAL
CLE
Spread
-6.5 -159
+8.0 -113
Spread

'chiefchief888' is picking Baltimore to cover (-7.5)

chiefchief888 is #2 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +5850 units on the season.

Spread
BAL
CLE
Spread
-6.5 -159
+8.0 -113
Total

'chiefchief888' picks Baltimore vs Cleveland to go Over (41.5)

chiefchief888 is #2 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +5850 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
38.5 -106
39 -111
Spread

'tolro234' is picking Cleveland to cover (+7.5)

tolro234 is #3 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +5850 units on the season.

Spread
BAL
CLE
Spread
-6.5 -159
+8.0 -113
Total

'tolro234' picks Baltimore vs Cleveland to go Under (41.5)

tolro234 is #3 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +5850 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
38.5 -106
39 -111
Total

'crcallen18' picks Baltimore vs Cleveland to go Over (41.5)

crcallen18 is #3 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (6-0-0) and +6000 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
38.5 -106
39 -111
Spread

'crcallen18' is picking Baltimore to cover (-8.5)

crcallen18 is #3 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (6-0-0) and +6000 units on the season.

Spread
BAL
CLE
Spread
-6.5 -159
+8.0 -113
Total

'John Doe' picks Baltimore vs Cleveland to go Over (41.5)

John Doe is #5 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4800 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
38.5 -106
39 -111
Total

'thangngo' picks Baltimore vs Cleveland to go Under (41.5)

thangngo is #5 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (7-0-0) and +5950 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
38.5 -106
39 -111
Spread

'John Doe' is picking Baltimore to cover (-7.5)

John Doe is #5 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4800 units on the season.

Spread
BAL
CLE
Spread
-6.5 -159
+8.0 -113
Spread

'thangngo' is picking Baltimore to cover (-8.5)

thangngo is #5 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (7-0-0) and +5950 units on the season.

Spread
BAL
CLE
Spread
-6.5 -159
+8.0 -113
Spread

'livelywee55' is picking Cleveland to cover (+7.5)

livelywee55 is #7 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +4650 units on the season.

Spread
BAL
CLE
Spread
-6.5 -159
+8.0 -113
Total

'livelywee55' picks Baltimore vs Cleveland to go Under (41.5)

livelywee55 is #7 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +4650 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
38.5 -106
39 -111
Spread

'Pinza' is picking Baltimore to cover (-8.0)

Pinza is #8 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (9-0-0) and +5850 units on the season.

Spread
BAL
CLE
Spread
-6.5 -159
+8.0 -113
Total

'Pinza' picks Baltimore vs Cleveland to go Over (40.0)

Pinza is #8 on picking games that Baltimore is in with a record of (9-0-0) and +5850 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
38.5 -106
39 -111

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