Cincinnati Bengals Picks
2nd in AFC North
(6 - 2 - 0)
Next Game
Sun, Nov 15
20:20 ET
PIT @ CIN Picks
NFL Picks
Spread
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Bengals have allowed the fourth-lowest rushing success rate through three games out of their Week 6 bye, and the Cinny offense is clicking with 37.3 points per game and the highest EPA per dropback during the stretch. Pittsburgh entered its Week 9 bye relying on the running game while ranked 22nd in passing DVOA with the fifth-lowest EPA per dropback, so look for the Cincinnati defense to make enough stops for the offense to pull away in this critical AFC North bout.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.5% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. In this game, Joe Burrow is predicted by the model to wind up with the 2nd-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.1. . Joe Burrow's 307.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year signifies a meaningful growth in his passing talent over last year's 196.0 mark.. Joe Burrow's 73.6% Adjusted Completion% this year represents an impressive improvement in his passing precision over last year's 70.3% figure.. Opposing offenses have passed for the 5th-most adjusted yards in football (254.0 per game) versus the Steelers defense this year.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are expected by the projection model to call just 62.8 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.. Aaron Rodgers's 62.0% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a material reduction in his throwing precision over last year's 67.1% mark.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.. Among all RBs, Chase Brown ranks in the 92nd percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 61.7% of the workload in his offense's ground game.. With an excellent record of 49.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (80th percentile), Chase Brown ranks as one of the leading RBs in the league this year.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.5% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. Mike Gesicki has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (59.6% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last year (48.6%).. When talking about air yards, Mike Gesicki grades out in the towering 90th percentile among TEs this year, totaling a superb 37.0 per game.. Mike Gesicki's 38.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year signifies a significant boost in his receiving proficiency over last year's 22.0 rate.. This year, the shaky Steelers pass defense has surrendered a whopping 82.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 3rd-worst rate in the NFL.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are expected by the projection model to call just 62.8 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.. Jaylen Warren has accrued a feeble -6.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 5th percentile when it comes to running backs.. With a poor 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (2nd percentile) last year, Jaylen Warren stands as one of the best pass-game running backs in the NFL in space.. The Bengals pass defense has performed very well when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.91 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 8th-fewest in the NFL.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their standard approach.. The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).. The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line profiles as the 4th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Cincinnati's collection of LBs has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 5th-worst in the league.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.5% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. In this game, Joe Burrow is predicted by the model to wind up with the 2nd-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.1. . Joe Burrow's 73.6% Adjusted Completion% this year represents an impressive improvement in his passing precision over last year's 70.3% figure.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.5% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.. The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.6% red zone pass rate.. In this game, Joe Burrow is predicted by the model to wind up with the 2nd-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.1. . Joe Burrow's 73.6% Adjusted Completion% this year represents an impressive improvement in his passing precision over last year's 70.3% figure.. Joe Burrow has been one of the leading touchdown passers in the NFL this year, averaging a fantastic 2.88 per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their standard approach.. The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in football in the red zone (64.0% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a colossal 58.4 per game on average).. The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line profiles as the 4th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Consensus Picks
More ConsensusPIT @ CIN · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
CIN
-3.5 spread
-6.54
PROJECTION
-3.0
DIFFERENCE
18.13%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL
Under
49.0 Total
46.10 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.9
DIFFERENCE
19.27%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
J. Burrow
(QB)
o287.5 Passing Yards
321.42 OVER
PROJECTION
+33.9
DIFFERENCE
25.95%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
A. Rodgers
(QB)
u239.5 Passing Yards
228.25 UNDER
PROJECTION
-11.3
DIFFERENCE
21.39%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
C. Brown
(RB)
o43.5 Rushing Yards
50.71 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.2
DIFFERENCE
23.76%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
J. Warren
(RB)
o61.5 Rushing Yards
62.40 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
9%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
M. Gesicki
(TE)
o23.5 Receiving Yards
35.64 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.1
DIFFERENCE
26.18%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
J. Warren
(RB)
u25.5 Receiving Yards
17.86 UNDER
PROJECTION
-7.6
DIFFERENCE
25.66%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
G. Bernard
(WR)
o47.5 Receiving Yards
55.73 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.2
DIFFERENCE
22.93%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
C. Brown
(RB)
o24.5 Receiving Yards
26.72 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.2
DIFFERENCE
15.68%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
J. Chase
(WR)
o90.5 Receiving Yards
94.04 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.5
DIFFERENCE
12.47%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
J. Warren
(RB)
u2.5 Receptions Made
2.32 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
19.17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
M. Gesicki
(TE)
o2.5 Receptions Made
2.84 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
12.14%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
P. Freiermuth
(TE)
o2.5 Receptions Made
3.11 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
5.77%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
C. Brown
(RB)
u4.5 Receptions Made
4.13 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
4.96%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
J. Chase
(WR)
u8.5 Receptions Made
8.02 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
4.02%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
G. Bernard
(WR)
u4.5 Receptions Made
4.41 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-9.96%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
J. Warren
(RB)
u14.5 Rushing Attempts
14.01 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
10.94%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
C. Brown
(RB)
o11.5 Rushing Attempts
12.13 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
7.08%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
J. Burrow
(QB)
u39.5 Passing Attempts
37.37 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.1
DIFFERENCE
14.24%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
A. Rodgers
(QB)
u36.5 Passing Attempts
34.65 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.9
DIFFERENCE
13.45%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
J. Burrow
(QB)
o26.5 Passing Completions
29.19 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.7
DIFFERENCE
16.98%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
A. Rodgers
(QB)
u22.5 Passing Completions
20.67 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.8
DIFFERENCE
13.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Burrow
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.24 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
26.62%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
G. Bernard
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.44 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
24.38%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
C. Brown
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.58 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
13.49%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Chase
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.56 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-1.34%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Warren
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.45 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-8.61%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
M. Gesicki
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.24 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-13.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
A. Rodgers
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.05 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-16.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
J. Burrow
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.46 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
13.1%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
A. Rodgers
(QB)
o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.67 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-7.9%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
SPREAD
CIN
-3.5 spread
-6.54
PROJECTION
-3.0
DIFFERENCE
18.13%
EV
TOTAL
Under
49.0 Total
46.10 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.9
DIFFERENCE
19.27%
EV
PASSING YARDS
J. Burrow
(QB)
o287.5 Passing Yards
321.42 OVER
PROJECTION
+33.9
DIFFERENCE
25.95%
EV
PASSING YARDS
A. Rodgers
(QB)
u239.5 Passing Yards
228.25 UNDER
PROJECTION
-11.3
DIFFERENCE
21.39%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
C. Brown
(RB)
o43.5 Rushing Yards
50.71 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.2
DIFFERENCE
23.76%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
J. Warren
(RB)
o61.5 Rushing Yards
62.40 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
9%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
M. Gesicki
(TE)
o23.5 Receiving Yards
35.64 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.1
DIFFERENCE
26.18%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
J. Warren
(RB)
u25.5 Receiving Yards
17.86 UNDER
PROJECTION
-7.6
DIFFERENCE
25.66%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
G. Bernard
(WR)
o47.5 Receiving Yards
55.73 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.2
DIFFERENCE
22.93%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
C. Brown
(RB)
o24.5 Receiving Yards
26.72 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.2
DIFFERENCE
15.68%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
J. Chase
(WR)
o90.5 Receiving Yards
94.04 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.5
DIFFERENCE
12.47%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
J. Warren
(RB)
u2.5 Receptions Made
2.32 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
19.17%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
M. Gesicki
(TE)
o2.5 Receptions Made
2.84 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
12.14%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
P. Freiermuth
(TE)
o2.5 Receptions Made
3.11 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
5.77%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
C. Brown
(RB)
u4.5 Receptions Made
4.13 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
4.96%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
J. Chase
(WR)
u8.5 Receptions Made
8.02 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
4.02%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
G. Bernard
(WR)
u4.5 Receptions Made
4.41 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-9.96%
EV
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
J. Warren
(RB)
u14.5 Rushing Attempts
14.01 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
10.94%
EV
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
C. Brown
(RB)
o11.5 Rushing Attempts
12.13 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
7.08%
EV
PASSING ATTEMPTS
J. Burrow
(QB)
u39.5 Passing Attempts
37.37 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.1
DIFFERENCE
14.24%
EV
PASSING ATTEMPTS
A. Rodgers
(QB)
u36.5 Passing Attempts
34.65 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.9
DIFFERENCE
13.45%
EV
PASSING COMPLETIONS
J. Burrow
(QB)
o26.5 Passing Completions
29.19 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.7
DIFFERENCE
16.98%
EV
PASSING COMPLETIONS
A. Rodgers
(QB)
u22.5 Passing Completions
20.67 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.8
DIFFERENCE
13.12%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Burrow
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.24 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
26.62%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
G. Bernard
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.44 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
24.38%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
C. Brown
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.58 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
13.49%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Chase
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.56 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-1.34%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Warren
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.45 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-8.61%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
M. Gesicki
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.24 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-13.12%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
A. Rodgers
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.05 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-16.07%
EV
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
J. Burrow
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.46 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
13.1%
EV
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
A. Rodgers
(QB)
o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.67 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-7.9%
EV
PIT @ CIN · Trends
PIT
CIN
PIT
CIN
PIT
CIN
Over
Under
PIT
CIN
PIT
CIN
Over
Under
Over
Under
Over
Under
PIT
CIN
Over
Under
PIT
CIN
PIT
CIN
Over
Under
Over
Under
Over
Under
Over
Under
PIT
CIN
Over
Under
PIT
CIN