Cincinnati Bengals

Picks

Through the first six games of the season, Brown rushed for just 202 yards on a pathetic 2.7 yards per carry. But in the last six games he has rushed for 502 yards on 5.8 yards per attempt. In Week 14, Brown and the Bengals face a Buffalo squad that has one glaring flaw; an inability to stop the run. The Bills are 30th in the league in defensive rush EPA and DVOA. They surrender 141.3 rushing yards per game and with Cincinnati getting back QB Joe Burrow last week, they'll need to focus on containing the pass. Brown has rushed for more than 70 yards in five of his last six games and this number looks way too low here. 

The Bengals are one of the worst pass defenses in the land and have allowed the second most passing touchdowns to opponents this season. Cincinnati is giving up 2.2 TDs through the air per game with a red-zone defense allowing foes to cross the goal line at a near 65% rate. Allen’s lack of passing touchdowns the past two games coincides with a laundry list of ailments for the receiving corps. That includes his favorite TD target, tight end Dalton Kincaid (questionable for Sunday). This pass-catching group is getting healthier in Week 14, hopefully in time for a high-scoring showdown with Cincy. Player projections for Allen range from 1.8 to 2.1 passing touchdowns on Sunday. 

Samaje Perine is a sneaky +310 TD play this week against a Bills defense I still don’t trust against the run. Only three teams have allowed more rushing yards than Buffalo, and their 15 rushing TDs allowed to running backs are the most in the league. Perine returned last week and immediately carved into Chase Brown’s workload, even getting the only RB carry inside the 5. He finished with 14 carries—just one fewer than Brown—and logged a 40% snap share. Cincinnati may want to ease Brown’s workload after weeks of heavy usage, and Perine looks positioned to handle high-value touches near the goal line in a Joe Burrow offense with a 52.5-point total.