Cincinnati Bengals

Picks

Cincinnati’s offense showed signs of life last week, going a perfect 6-for-6 in the red zone against Miami. With Noah Fant inactive, Mike Gesicki stepped into a larger role, finishing with 35 yards on four targets and a touchdown. He was also one of just two Bengals pass-catchers to see a red-zone target in that game. The matchup sets up well again. Only Dallas has allowed more points per game than Arizona since Week 14, and Gesicki remains one of the few Bengals TD prices that’s still reasonable in the market. Cincinnati’s implied team total sits around 31.5 points, which suggests another high-scoring afternoon for Joe Burrow and this offense. In a game where points are expected to come in bunches, Gesicki’s role near the goal line makes him a worthwhile look at plus money.

 

You’re going to give me a +120 ATTD return on the best TE in the league against the worst defense when it comes to defending tight ends? I’ll bite. Cincy has allowed 15 scores to the position. McBride has nine TDs in his last 10 games. This game has the highest total on the Week 17 board, so expect plenty of passing (from the two highest passing rates in the league) and points.

Not only have the Cardinals dropped seven straight, they’ve also failed to cover the spread in six of those games. It’s been a bit of a different story for the Bengals, too. Cincy has covered the number in four of the past five, and the Bengals are 2-2 outright since star quarterback Joe Burrow returned. Arizona has also allowed an average of 34.7 points per game during the losing streak while surrendering the fourth-highest EPA per play, so I’m expecting another big game from Burrow on Sunday. Additionally, the Bengals have also shown more bite on defense since Burrow’s returned, with Cincy allowing the 11th-lowest EPA per play compared to the third-highest mark through the four games prior.

There will be Costco-sized scoring in this non-consequential non-conference contest. 

We have two quarterbacks who aren’t afraid to let it fly and two defenses that are already planning their flights to Cancun in two weeks. The Cardinals and Bengals rank No. 1 and No. 2 in passing play percentage and also rank 31st and 32nd in EPA allowed per dropback.

Cincinnati is surging with Joe Burrow back and having “fun” playing football, passing for 300 yards and four touchdowns in a squash of the Dolphins in Week 16. 

These pass defenses sit near the bottom of most metrics, including allowing a surplus of explosive plays. Arizona enters Week 17 with injuries at all three levels of the defense.

This total opened at 51.5 and that number is still available on Sunday night, but things are moving quick. Some books are already up to 53 points. FYI: Extended forecast for Paycor Stadium looks warm with some moderate winds.

As it relates to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Arizona Cardinals ranks as the 5th-worst in the league this year.. Michael Wilson's 63.6% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a remarkable reduction in his pass-catching talent over last year's 67.0% rate.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 61.2% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. The model projects Joe Burrow to throw 38.8 passes this week, on balance: the 4th-most out of all QBs.. The Arizona Cardinals safeties grade out as the 5th-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

As it relates to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Arizona Cardinals ranks as the 5th-worst in the league this year.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 61.2% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. The model projects Joe Burrow to throw 38.8 passes this week, on balance: the 4th-most out of all QBs.. The Arizona Cardinals safeties grade out as the 5th-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

As it relates to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Arizona Cardinals ranks as the 5th-worst in the league this year.

As it relates to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Arizona Cardinals ranks as the 5th-worst in the league this year.. Michael Wilson's 63.6% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a remarkable reduction in his pass-catching talent over last year's 67.0% rate.. Michael Wilson's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year signifies a noteworthy diminishment in his effectiveness in the open field over last year's 1.8% rate.. The Bengals defense has conceded the 8th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 125.0) vs. wide receivers this year.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 61.2% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. In this week's contest, Chase Brown is projected by the model to position himself in the 95th percentile among RBs with 5.5 targets.. As it relates to air yards, Chase Brown ranks in the towering 94th percentile among running backs this year, accruing a striking 4.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).. Chase Brown's 23.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 17.9.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 61.2% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. In this week's game, Ja'Marr Chase is expected by the model to land in the 99th percentile among wide receivers with 11.7 targets.. Ja'Marr Chase's 33.3% Target Share this season marks a significant growth in his passing attack utilization over last season's 27.9% mark.. Ja'Marr Chase has notched many more air yards this season (106.0 per game) than he did last season (90.0 per game).

The projections expect the Cardinals offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.80 seconds per snap.. Jacoby Brissett has been much more involved in his offense's running game this year (13.2% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (5.6%).. Opposing offenses have rushed for the most adjusted yards in the league (156 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.. The Cincinnati Bengals safeties grade out as the 32nd-worst collection of safeties in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Bengals, who are a huge favorite by 7.5 points.. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. This year, the stout Arizona Cardinals run defense has surrendered a feeble 5.22 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 29th-lowest rate in football.. The Arizona defensive ends project as the 4th-worst collection of DEs in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.