Cincinnati Bengals

Picks

Not only have the Cardinals dropped seven straight, they’ve also failed to cover the spread in six of those games. It’s been a bit of a different story for the Bengals, too. Cincy has covered the number in four of the past five, and the Bengals are 2-2 outright since star quarterback Joe Burrow returned. Arizona has also allowed an average of 34.7 points per game during the losing streak while surrendering the fourth-highest EPA per play, so I’m expecting another big game from Burrow on Sunday. Additionally, the Bengals have also shown more bite on defense since Burrow’s returned, with Cincy allowing the 11th-lowest EPA per play compared to the third-highest mark through the four games prior.

There will be Costco-sized scoring in this non-consequential non-conference contest. 

We have two quarterbacks who aren’t afraid to let it fly and two defenses that are already planning their flights to Cancun in two weeks. The Cardinals and Bengals rank No. 1 and No. 2 in passing play percentage and also rank 31st and 32nd in EPA allowed per dropback.

Cincinnati is surging with Joe Burrow back and having “fun” playing football, passing for 300 yards and four touchdowns in a squash of the Dolphins in Week 16. 

These pass defenses sit near the bottom of most metrics, including allowing a surplus of explosive plays. Arizona enters Week 17 with injuries at all three levels of the defense.

This total opened at 51.5 and that number is still available on Sunday night, but things are moving quick. Some books are already up to 53 points. FYI: Extended forecast for Paycor Stadium looks warm with some moderate winds.