Chicago Bears

Picks

The Packers beat the Bears in a back-and-forth game two weeks ago. I'm expecting a different result this time around and the home-field advantage swinging from Lambeau to Solider Field is just one reason. The Packers suffered a massive blow last week when they lost All-Pro pass rusher Micah Parsons to a season-ending injury. Green Bay is also banged up on offense with RB Josh Jacobs, leading receiver Christian Watson, and RT Zach Tom all game-time decisions. The Bears are 10-2 SU and 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games. They are second in the NFL in rush success rate while their defense has forced a league-high 30 turnovers. Back them in a revenge spot here. 

The Bears ran the ball well against the Packers two weeks ago, with Swift getting 13 handoffs to Monangi’s 14 carries. However, he ran 18 times for a huge game against Cleveland last week – the third time in the past five weeks he’s has at least 18 carries. Chicago leans into the run and has done so even more over the past three games, rushing on more than 51% of snaps. Swift has run at least 13 times in 10 of his 13 games this season. I like the Bears at home and like Swift to record 13 or more rushing attempts.

D’Andre Swift clearly led the backfield last week, getting the first crack at touches and never giving way to Kyle Monangai. That role carried over near the goal line as well, with Swift handling two red-zone carries against the Browns in Week 15 and turning them into 23 yards and two touchdowns. Monangai struggled to get going, while Chicago leaned heavily on Swift’s ability to win on the edge and especially later in the game. He accounted for 10 of the 14 running back opportunities in the second half and appears to be the more trusted option late in games right now. With uncertainty around the Bears’ pass catchers and questions on the Packers’ side as well, Swift at +115 to +120 stands out as my favorite touchdown prop in this matchup. 

Without the star pass rusher, this Packers defensive line is far less dangerous and runs into a Chicago offensive line ranked among the best pass protectors and run blockers in the NFL. The big bodies up front are No. 1 in pass block win rate and No. 4 in run block win rate at ESPN — one of only five O-lines to rank Top 10 in both metrics. Williams, who averaged only 5.2 yards per attempt in Week 14, will now have more time to allow deeper plays to develop. And the Bears’ run game is picking up steam. It rushed for 138 yards on 32 carries against Green Bay and is averaging five yards per carry over the past three games. The short turnaround not only compounds the Packers' injuries but puts the schedule squeeze on the Cheeseheads, having to play back-to-back road games and three away games in the last four weeks.