Chicago Bears Picks
3rd in NFC North
(1 - 1 - 0)
Next Game
Mon, Sep 28
20:15 ET
PHI @ CHI Picks
NFL PicksEV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Eagles are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Eagles to pass on 51.0% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.. The projections expect Jalen Hurts to attempt 31.0 passes in this week's game, on average: the 5th-fewest among all QBs.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Eagles are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.. Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 2nd-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 48.9% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are forecasted by the projections to run 65.0 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-most among all teams this week.. This week, Jalen Hurts is forecasted by the model to notch the 2nd-most carries among all QBs with 7.5. . Opposing teams have run for the 9th-most adjusted yards in football (131 per game) against the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Chicago Bears may pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup QB Case Keenum.. This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Bears, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. Since the start of last season, the poor Philadelphia Eagles run defense has been gouged for a monstrous 4.14 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition's run game: the 24th-highest rate in football.. The Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-best group of DTs in football since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Chicago Bears may pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup QB Case Keenum.. This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Bears, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.0 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Chicago Bears have run the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 61.1 plays per game.. The Chicago O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Chicago Bears may pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup QB Case Keenum.. This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Bears, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.0 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Chicago Bears have run the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 61.1 plays per game.. The Chicago O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are forecasted by the projections to run 64.8 offensive plays in this game: the 8th-most among all teams this week.. The Eagles have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to result in increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense performance when facing better weather in this game.. With a sizeable 55.2% Route Participation% (92nd percentile) since the start of last season, Saquon Barkley has been as one of the pass-catching running backs with the most usage in the NFL.. In this week's contest, Saquon Barkley is anticipated by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 78th percentile when it comes to running backs with 2.9 targets.. The Chicago Bears pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency against RBs since the start of last season, allowing 6.90 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-most in football.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Eagles have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to result in increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense performance when facing better weather in this game.. When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Eagles profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season.. Jalen Hurts has been one of the leading TD throwers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 1.58 per game while grading out in the 85th percentile.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 5th-highest clip in the league vs. the Bears defense since the start of last season (74.0% Adjusted Completion%).. The Chicago Bears defense has yielded the 5th-most TDs through the air in the league: 1.84 per game since the start of last season.
Consensus Picks
More ConsensusPHI @ CHI · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL
Under
41.0 Total
40.84 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
6.8%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
J. Hurts
(QB)
u217.5 Passing Yards
195.12 UNDER
PROJECTION
-22.4
DIFFERENCE
25.25%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
J. Hurts
(QB)
o24.5 Rushing Yards
30.70 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.2
DIFFERENCE
24.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
D. Swift
(RB)
u69.5 Rushing Yards
62.68 UNDER
PROJECTION
-6.8
DIFFERENCE
23.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
S. Barkley
(RB)
o68.5 Rushing Yards
72.31 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.8
DIFFERENCE
15.85%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
L. Burden III
(WR)
o33.5 Receiving Yards
48.41 OVER
PROJECTION
+14.9
DIFFERENCE
26.13%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
C. Loveland
(TE)
o31.5 Receiving Yards
38.89 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.4
DIFFERENCE
24.8%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
S. Barkley
(RB)
o11.5 Receiving Yards
16.43 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.9
DIFFERENCE
22.94%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
C. Loveland
(TE)
o3.5 Receptions Made
3.55 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
9.74%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
L. Burden III
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions Made
3.90 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
4.06%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
J. Hurts
(QB)
o5.5 Rushing Attempts
7.25 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.7
DIFFERENCE
14.09%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
S. Barkley
(RB)
o17.5 Rushing Attempts
17.54 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
4.95%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
J. Hurts
(QB)
o28.5 Passing Attempts
29.03 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
4.96%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
J. Hurts
(QB)
u18.5 Passing Completions
17.66 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
1.49%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Hurts
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.55 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
19.56%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
L. Burden III
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.28 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
13.54%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
C. Loveland
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.25 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
12.84%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
S. Barkley
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.5 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-2.6%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. Swift
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.32 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-26.41%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Mundt
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.06 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-30%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
J. Hurts
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.39 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
13.01%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
SPREAD
TOTAL
Under
41.0 Total
40.84 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
6.8%
EV
PASSING YARDS
J. Hurts
(QB)
u217.5 Passing Yards
195.12 UNDER
PROJECTION
-22.4
DIFFERENCE
25.25%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
J. Hurts
(QB)
o24.5 Rushing Yards
30.70 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.2
DIFFERENCE
24.07%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
D. Swift
(RB)
u69.5 Rushing Yards
62.68 UNDER
PROJECTION
-6.8
DIFFERENCE
23.07%
EV
RUSHING YARDS
S. Barkley
(RB)
o68.5 Rushing Yards
72.31 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.8
DIFFERENCE
15.85%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
L. Burden III
(WR)
o33.5 Receiving Yards
48.41 OVER
PROJECTION
+14.9
DIFFERENCE
26.13%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
C. Loveland
(TE)
o31.5 Receiving Yards
38.89 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.4
DIFFERENCE
24.8%
EV
RECEIVING YARDS
S. Barkley
(RB)
o11.5 Receiving Yards
16.43 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.9
DIFFERENCE
22.94%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
C. Loveland
(TE)
o3.5 Receptions Made
3.55 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
9.74%
EV
RECEPTIONS MADE
L. Burden III
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions Made
3.90 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
4.06%
EV
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
J. Hurts
(QB)
o5.5 Rushing Attempts
7.25 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.7
DIFFERENCE
14.09%
EV
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
S. Barkley
(RB)
o17.5 Rushing Attempts
17.54 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
4.95%
EV
PASSING ATTEMPTS
J. Hurts
(QB)
o28.5 Passing Attempts
29.03 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
4.96%
EV
PASSING COMPLETIONS
J. Hurts
(QB)
u18.5 Passing Completions
17.66 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
1.49%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Hurts
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.55 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
19.56%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
L. Burden III
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.28 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
13.54%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
C. Loveland
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.25 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
12.84%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
S. Barkley
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.5 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-2.6%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. Swift
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.32 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-26.41%
EV
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Mundt
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.06 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-30%
EV
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
J. Hurts
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.39 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
13.01%
EV
PHI @ CHI · Trends
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