Kansas City @ Indianapolis preview

Last Meeting ( Dec 22, 2013 ) Indianapolis 23, Kansas City 7

Andrew Luck and Indianapolis Colts closed the season with three consecutive lopsided victories, including a 23-7 romp in Kansas City, and now have the luxury of home-field advantage when they host the Chiefs on Saturday in the AFC wild-card round. The Colts allowed a staggering 82 points in road losses to Arizona and Cincinnati before sinking the Chiefs, part of a three-game run that has seen them outscore the opposition 78-20. Indianapolis has dominated the series, winning five of the last six.

Unlike the Colts, Kansas City wobbled down the stretch, losing five of its last seven games after opening the season with nine straight wins and leading the league in points allowed. The Chiefs, seeking their first postseason victory since Joe Montana was under center in 1994, committed an uncharacteristic four turnovers in the loss to the Colts on Dec. 22. "They've got the upper hand on us right now because in their minds they think they can beat us," Kansas City linebacker Derrick Johnson said after last month's loss.

TV: 4:35 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Colts -2.5. O/U: 46.5

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (11-5): There remains uncertainty whether leading wide receiver Dwayne Bowe will be cleared to play after suffering a concussion, but that won't alter the game plan for quarterback Alex Smith and Kansas City. The Chiefs will feature a heavy dose of running back Jamaal Charles, who led the AFC with 1,287 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns while hauling in a team-high 70 receptions and seven scoring passes. "We called him public enemy No. 1," Colts coach Chuck Pagano said. "If he doesn't touch the ball 30 times, I'd be shocked." After resting most of the starters in last week's loss at San Diego, the Chiefs are expecting the return of linebacker Justin Houston, who tied for the team sack lead (11) with Tamba Hali despite missing the last five games with a dislocated elbow.

ABOUT THE COLTS (11-5): Indianapolis' offense went sideways when Luck lost his favorite target, Reggie Wayne, to a season-ending knee injury in Week 7. After a stretch of uneven performances, Luck has established a chemistry with young wideouts T.Y. Hilton, Griff Whalen and Da'Rick Rogers, throwing for eight touchdowns and one interception over the final four weeks. Hilton has emerged as a go-to receiver in his second season, hauling in 24 passes during the three-game win streak to finish with 82 on the season. Donald Brown has helped ease the sting of the trade for running back Trent Richardson by averaging 5.3 yards per carry and scoring six rushing TDs - two against the Chiefs. Robert Mathis, who had a league-high 19.5 sacks, heads a defense that yielded two TDs in the final three games

EXTRA POINTS

1. Smith had 11 TD passes versus one interception on the road as the Chiefs tied Miami (2008) and Indianapolis (2012) for the most wins by a team with two or fewer victories the previous season.

2. Luck's 13 home wins in his first two seasons ties him with Atlanta's Matt Ryan for the second most in the Super Bowl era.

3. Kansas City has averaged only 9.4 points in its last five losses to Indianapolis.

PREDICTION: Colts 23, Chiefs 20