Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh Picks & Props

This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Steelers, who are -3-point underdogs. The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and lower rush volume. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game against the Colts defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL. While Jaylen Warren has garnered 88.9% of his offense's red zone rush attempts in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be much less involved in Pittsburgh's ground game near the end zone in this contest at 75.0%.

The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower run volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.7 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL. In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Indianapolis Colts ranks as the best in football this year. Daniel Jones's throwing precision has been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 63.4% to 69.1%. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-highest clip in the NFL against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year (76.0% Adjusted Completion%).

The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower run volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.7 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL. In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Indianapolis Colts ranks as the best in football this year. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-highest clip in the NFL against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year (76.0% Adjusted Completion%). The Steelers defense has been torched for the 2nd-most TDs through the air in football to tight ends: 0.86 per game this year.

The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower run volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.7 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL. Jonathan Taylor's 15.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 81st percentile for running backs. In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Indianapolis Colts ranks as the best in football this year. Jonathan Taylor's ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 56.7% to 92.6%.

This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Steelers, who are -3-point underdogs. The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and lower rush volume. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game against the Colts defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL. DK Metcalf has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 22.2% this year, which puts him in the 85th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Steelers, who are -3-point underdogs. The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and lower rush volume. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game against the Colts defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL. This year, the shaky Colts defense has allowed a whopping 0.50 receiving TDs per game to opposing tight ends: the 8th-highest rate in football.

This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Steelers, who are -3-point underdogs. The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and lower rush volume. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game against the Colts defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL. With zero red zone carries this year, Aaron Rodgers's immobility makes him a no threat as a ball-carrier near the goal line.