Darnell Washington is being used a big blocking TE vs. 4-3 defenses and Pittsburgh takes on another 4-3 scheme in the Colts on Sunday. He’s seen his snaps rise in the past four games, compared to the opening three games. He was quiet against Green Bay last week but had three catches in each of the previous three games. Indianapolis has allowed the fourth most receptions and third most yards to TEs this season and DC Lou Anarumo singled out the challenges of covering a mountain of man like Washington. Most of his projections are at 14 yards or higher with a ceiling of 25-plus.
Taylor has advantages in running to the left side of the field and teams have had success running to that side against the Steelers away from T.J. Watt.
Haven’t hit the multiple TDs yet, but Week 9 sets up perfectly against the Steelers and their No. 31 EPA/play defense. Jonathan Taylor is a monster — just named AFC Player of the Month after putting up 500 yards and 10 TDs over the last four games. I’m all over the Colts’ team total Over 26.5, and Taylor should get plenty of goal-line work. Daniel Jones isn’t stealing any touches near the goal line, and JT is getting basically every running back opportunity. Pittsburgh has given up 68 points over its last two games, and another 30-piece is coming their way from the league’s hottest offense.
Warren leads all tight ends with 492 receiving yards and has built instant chemistry with Colts QB Daniel Jones. The rookie burst onto the scene with seven catches for 76 yards in Week 1 and has logged 60+ receiving yards in five of eight games. Warren and the Colts take on the Pittsburgh Steelers this week. The Steelers are 23rd in the league in defensive dropback EPA and have allowed a league-worst 79.3 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends.
Indianapolis’ improbable 7-1 SU start to 2025 is impressive but that has been helped along by a softer sked and plenty of home cooking. This trip to the Steel City is just the fourth away game for the Colts and only the second outdoor outing for Indy. The Steelers sit in or just outside of the Top 10 in many advanced metrics, with a strong ground game anchoring this playbook. Pittsburgh is No. 4 in rushing DVOA, No. 6 in success rate per handoff, and No. 10 in EPA per run. Taking to the testy turf at Acrisure Stadium is the best plan of attack for the Steelers in Week 9. Indianapolis’ defense has seen the second lowest run rate from foes, due to jumping to big leads, but ranks in the bottom third of the NFL in several run defense measurements. Those rotten run stop results come despite facing some deplorable or depleted rushing offenses.
This line is giving the Steelers too much respect. The 7-1 Colts are a wagon, and the Steelers have lost consecutive games without any stop in their defense. It’s bad news for Pittsburgh with Indy heading to the Steel City averaging the most yards per play, highest EPA per play and leading the NFL in points per game (33.8). Add the Colts defense ranking better than the Steelers in DVOA, EPA and yards per play allowed, and I’m happy to lay the wood with Indy.
This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Steelers, who are -3-point underdogs.. The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and lower rush volume.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game against the Colts defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.. While Jaylen Warren has garnered 88.9% of his offense's red zone rush attempts in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be much less involved in Pittsburgh's ground game near the end zone in this contest at 75.0%.
The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower run volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.7 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.. Jonathan Taylor's 15.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 81st percentile for running backs.. In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Indianapolis Colts ranks as the best in football this year.. Jonathan Taylor's ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 56.7% to 92.6%.
A running game script is indicated by the Colts being a 3-point favorite in this game.. The Indianapolis Colts have called the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.2 plays per game.
This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Steelers, who are -3-point underdogs.. The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and lower rush volume.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game against the Colts defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.. Aaron Rodgers's 68.3% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a noteworthy improvement in his passing precision over last year's 63.8% figure.
A running game script is indicated by the Colts being a 3-point favorite in this game.. The Indianapolis Colts have called the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.2 plays per game.
The smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Steelers this year (a measly 50.0 per game on average).. Indianapolis's defense profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year as it relates to inducing interceptions, totaling 1.18 per game.
This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Steelers, who are -3-point underdogs.. The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and lower rush volume.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game against the Colts defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.. DK Metcalf has run a route on 93.9% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to WRs.
This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Steelers, who are -3-point underdogs.. The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and lower rush volume.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game against the Colts defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.. In this week's contest, Jonnu Smith is forecasted by the projection model to place in the 78th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.9 targets.
The Colts rank as the 10th-most pass-focused team in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 63.6% pass rate.. The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower run volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.7 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.. Jonathan Taylor has run more routes this season (75.9% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (61.8%).. Our trusted projections expect Jonathan Taylor to notch 3.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among running backs.
This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Steelers, who are -3-point underdogs.. The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and lower rush volume.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game against the Colts defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.. The projections expect Jaylen Warren to earn 4.3 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs.
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