Jacksonville @ San Francisco Picks & Props

The San Francisco 49ers will be rolling out backup quarterback Brock Purdy in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. The Jaguars defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (35.0 per game) since the start of last season. Since the start of last season, the shaky Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been gouged for a massive 1.05 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing WRs: the 8th-largest rate in the league.

The Jaguars have a new play-caller this year in head coach Liam Coen, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context). The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jaguars to pass on 61.4% of their chances: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week. When talking about pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Jaguars profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

The San Francisco 49ers will be rolling out backup quarterback Brock Purdy in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. The Jaguars defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (35.0 per game) since the start of last season. While Christian McCaffrey has accounted for 81.2% of his team's red zone rush attempts in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a less important option in San Francisco's run game near the goal line in this contest at 63.0%. Christian McCaffrey has accrued a staggering 21.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile when it comes to RBs. (This might not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs average negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage). Christian McCaffrey grades out in the 96th percentile among RBs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.25 per game.

The Jaguars have a new play-caller this year in head coach Liam Coen, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context). The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jaguars to pass on 61.4% of their chances: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week. While Brenton Strange has earned 0.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be much more involved in Jacksonville's passing offense near the goal line this week at 13.9%. When talking about air yards, Brenton Strange ranks in the towering 81st percentile among TEs since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 25.0 per game.

The Jaguars have a new play-caller this year in head coach Liam Coen, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context). The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jaguars to pass on 61.4% of their chances: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week. Travis Etienne has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 12.5% this year, which places him in the 88th percentile when it comes to running backs. When talking about pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Jaguars profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

The San Francisco 49ers will be rolling out backup quarterback Brock Purdy in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. The Jaguars defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (35.0 per game) since the start of last season. Jake Tonges has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 11.8% this year, which ranks him in the 75th percentile when it comes to TEs. Jake Tonges's 19.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 0.0. Jake Tonges ranks in the 78th percentile among TEs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.25 per game.

The Jaguars have a new play-caller this year in head coach Liam Coen, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context). The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jaguars to pass on 61.4% of their chances: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week. In this game, Trevor Lawrence is predicted by the projection model to wind up with the 8th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 36.3. When talking about pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Jaguars profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.