The Jaguars have surprised everyone with their defensive play, and are turning opponents over at a high rate. Their run defense has been quite strong, and they'll get pressure on Brock Purdy.
Jacksonville's offense has struggled to put up points despite racking up yards, as penalties and errors have derailed multiple drives. It'll be even harder against a San Francisco defense that ranks seventh in yards allowed per rush and third in yards allowed per pass.
Neither offense is posting a high rate of explosive plays, while both teams look to limit big plays defensively. This will be a tight, low-scoring affair that may see the teams struggle to reach the 40-point mark.
The 49ers are dealing with a fresh wave of injuries—no surprise there. Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings didn’t practice Wednesday, though Brock Purdy did. With Demarcus Robinson back from suspension, he could be in line for a significant role on Sunday. Kendrick Bourne hasn’t moved the needle, and neither Skyy Moore nor MVS has shown much. Robinson is a bit of a dart throw in a game clouded by injury uncertainty, so waiting for more clarity may be smart—but you'll need to move quickly if the opportunity opens. He scored seven touchdowns last season on just 31 receptions and had only three fewer red-zone targets than Puka Nacua in 2024. He converted five of his 20 targets into scores. It’s a lower-confidence play early in the week, but at +600, it's worth a half-unit. There’s an outside shot Robinson ends up functioning as the WR1 with Purdy under center.
The Jaguars rank 24th in penalties per offensive snap, and 27th in penalty yardage per game. Despite being ranked eight in total offense, they’re scoring only 23.3 points per game.
That won’t work against a San Francisco defense ranked third in scoring, fourth in yards allowed, and fifth in yards allowed per snap.
Meanwhile, the 49ers rank 25th in points per play. McCaffrey is yet to top 180 rushing yards through three games and 52 carries.
This game doesn’t have the feel of a shootout, and I won’t be surprised if this total drops before the weekend. Two of San Francisco’s games have failed to go past 31 points, and we will probably see a similar outcome here.
San Francisco's injuries continue to pile up after Nick Bosa tore his ACL and will miss the rest of the season. That gives Jacksonville a big advantage, especially with how surprisingly well they’re handling pass rushers.
A big reason for that is Liam Coen helping with his playcalling. Trevor Lawrence went 14 of 20 on passes that were less than 10 yards downfield against the Texans. He’s being asked to manage games while the Jaguars find success with the ground game.
But it’s the Jacksonville defense that has everyone shocked. The Jaguars lead the NFL in takeaways, and the worst secondary in the NFL last season leads the league this year with an interception rate near 6%. That said, they can be run on, and CMC will do just that.
The 49ers have won their first three games by a combined 10 points. I expect we’ll see another close one here.
This is a high total for two teams sending out high-end stop units through three weeks. The Jaguars have allowed just 17.0 points per game, while the Niners have been even better with only 16.3 against per, and the two defenses both rank top 10 in EPA per play allowed and DVOA.
The San Francisco 49ers will be rolling out backup quarterback Brock Purdy in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The Jaguars defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (35.0 per game) since the start of last season.. Since the start of last season, the shaky Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been gouged for a massive 1.05 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing WRs: the 8th-largest rate in the league.
The San Francisco 49ers will be rolling out backup quarterback Brock Purdy in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The Jaguars defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (35.0 per game) since the start of last season.. While Christian McCaffrey has accounted for 81.2% of his team's red zone rush attempts in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a less important option in San Francisco's run game near the goal line in this contest at 63.0%.. Christian McCaffrey has accrued a staggering 21.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile when it comes to RBs. (This might not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs average negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. Christian McCaffrey grades out in the 96th percentile among RBs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.25 per game.
With a 3-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their standard game plan.. The leading projections forecast the 49ers as the 4th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the San Francisco 49ers.. While Christian McCaffrey has been responsible for 29.5% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much smaller part of San Francisco's passing attack in this contest at 23.0%.. When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Jacksonville's group of LBs has been very good since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-best in the NFL.
With a 3-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their standard game plan.. The leading projections forecast the 49ers as the 4th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the San Francisco 49ers.. Our trusted projections expect Brock Purdy to throw 32.2 passes this week, on average: the 6th-fewest out of all QBs.
The Jaguars have a new play-caller this year in head coach Liam Coen, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).. The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jaguars to pass on 61.4% of their chances: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week.. In this game, Trevor Lawrence is predicted by the projection model to wind up with the 8th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 36.3. . When talking about pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Jaguars profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Jaguars have a new play-caller this year in head coach Liam Coen, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).. The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jaguars to pass on 61.6% of their chances: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week.. When talking about pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Jaguars profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The San Francisco 49ers will be rolling out backup quarterback Brock Purdy in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The Jaguars defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (35.0 per game) since the start of last season.. Jake Tonges's 10.5% Target Rate this season signifies a material improvement in his passing offense usage over last season's 0.0% figure.. Since the start of last season, the weak Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has conceded a whopping 78.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 8th-largest rate in football.
The Jaguars have a new play-caller this year in head coach Liam Coen, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).. The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jaguars to pass on 61.6% of their chances: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week.. Brenton Strange's 75.2% Route% this season represents a meaningful improvement in his air attack workload over last season's 45.2% figure.. The model projects Brenton Strange to accrue 5.5 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
The San Francisco 49ers will be rolling out backup quarterback Brock Purdy in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. The Jaguars defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (35.0 per game) since the start of last season.. The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has allowed the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (159.0) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season.
With a 3-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their standard game plan.. Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the 49ers to run on 46.2% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.. The opposing side have rushed for the 9th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (127 per game) vs. the Jaguars defense since the start of last season.
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