SPREAD
DAL
-1.5 spread
-2.0
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
1.14%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
DAL
-1.5 spread
Close Modal
-2.0
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
1.14%
EV
Both teams come into this game with different narratives surrounding their seasons. The Chicago Bears have struggled to find consistency, sitting near the bottom in several key statistical categories. On the other hand, the Green Bay Packers have shown flashes of brilliance but also moments of vulnerability, making this clash a more intriguing contest than it may initially appear.. For the Packers, their passing game, led by their quarterback, has been pivotal. The offensive line has had its ups and downs, but they rank in the upper half of the league for pass protection. This could be crucial against a Bears defense that has had a difficult time pressuring opposing quarterbacks.. Defensively, the Chicago Bears have been inconsistent, falling into the lower tier of the league in terms of yards allowed per game. They’ll need to tighten up against Green Bay’s balanced attack if they hope to keep the game competitive. In contrast, the Packers’ defense has been more reliable, particularly in the secondary, which can create turnovers and limit big plays.. From a betting perspective, the line reflects the differing expectations for these teams, with the Packers favored to win. Bettors should keep an eye on injury reports leading up to kickoff, as key absences could sway the odds further.
-1.5
-110
TOTAL
48.2 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.8
DIFFERENCE
14.59%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
48.2 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.8
DIFFERENCE
14.59%
EV
Both teams come into this game with different narratives surrounding their seasons. The Chicago Bears have struggled to find consistency, sitting near the bottom in several key statistical categories. On the other hand, the Green Bay Packers have shown flashes of brilliance but also moments of vulnerability, making this clash a more intriguing contest than it may initially appear.. For the Packers, their passing game, led by their quarterback, has been pivotal. The offensive line has had its ups and downs, but they rank in the upper half of the league for pass protection. This could be crucial against a Bears defense that has had a difficult time pressuring opposing quarterbacks.. Defensively, the Chicago Bears have been inconsistent, falling into the lower tier of the league in terms of yards allowed per game. They’ll need to tighten up against Green Bay’s balanced attack if they hope to keep the game competitive. In contrast, the Packers’ defense has been more reliable, particularly in the secondary, which can create turnovers and limit big plays.. From a betting perspective, the line reflects the differing expectations for these teams, with the Packers favored to win. Bettors should keep an eye on injury reports leading up to kickoff, as key absences could sway the odds further.
u50.5
-115
MONEYLINE
DAL
-120 moneyline
DAL
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
10.97%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
DAL
-120 moneyline
Close Modal
DAL
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
10.97%
EV
Both teams come into this game with different narratives surrounding their seasons. The Chicago Bears have struggled to find consistency, sitting near the bottom in several key statistical categories. On the other hand, the Green Bay Packers have shown flashes of brilliance but also moments of vulnerability, making this clash a more intriguing contest than it may initially appear.. For the Packers, their passing game, led by their quarterback, has been pivotal. The offensive line has had its ups and downs, but they rank in the upper half of the league for pass protection. This could be crucial against a Bears defense that has had a difficult time pressuring opposing quarterbacks.. Defensively, the Chicago Bears have been inconsistent, falling into the lower tier of the league in terms of yards allowed per game. They’ll need to tighten up against Green Bay’s balanced attack if they hope to keep the game competitive. In contrast, the Packers’ defense has been more reliable, particularly in the secondary, which can create turnovers and limit big plays.. From a betting perspective, the line reflects the differing expectations for these teams, with the Packers favored to win. Bettors should keep an eye on injury reports leading up to kickoff, as key absences could sway the odds further.
-120
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.44 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
26.07%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.44 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
26.07%
EV
The Bears rank as the 9th-most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 63.6% red zone pass rate.. The model projects the Bears to call the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. The 8th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Bears since the start of last season (a monstrous 59.0 per game on average).. The Bears O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing game metrics across the board.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 5th-highest level in the NFL against the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season (73.1% Adjusted Completion%).
+320
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.7 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
17.83%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
0.7 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
17.83%
EV
The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.1 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Dallas Cowboys since the start of last season (a colossal 61.3 per game on average).. Javonte Williams's 17.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 91st percentile for RBs.. Javonte Williams's 100.0% Adjusted Completion% this year represents an impressive boost in his receiving prowess over last year's 78.1% rate.. When it comes to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Chicago's collection of LBs has been outstanding since the start of last season, projecting as the 2nd-best in the league.
+100
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.45 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
16.29%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.45 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
16.29%
EV
The Bears rank as the 9th-most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 63.6% red zone pass rate.. The model projects the Bears to call the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. The 8th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Bears since the start of last season (a monstrous 59.0 per game on average).. With an extraordinary 26.9% Red Zone Target Share (93rd percentile) since the start of last season, DJ Moore rates as one of the wide receivers with the most usage near the goal line in football.. DJ Moore has totaled a monstrous 64.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 76th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
+180
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.52 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
14.89%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
0.52 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
14.89%
EV
The Bears rank as the 9th-most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 63.6% red zone pass rate.. The model projects the Bears to call the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. The 8th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Bears since the start of last season (a monstrous 59.0 per game on average).. The Bears O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing game metrics across the board.. The Cowboys defense has allowed the 4th-most receiving touchdowns in football to wide receivers: 1.16 per game since the start of last season.
+145
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.53 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
3.2%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
0.53 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
3.2%
EV
The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.2 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Dallas Cowboys since the start of last season (a colossal 61.3 per game on average).. With an extraordinary 27.1% Red Zone Target Rate (94th percentile) since the start of last season, CeeDee Lamb places among the wideouts with the most usage near the end zone in the NFL.. CeeDee Lamb has compiled a staggering 89.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 91st percentile among WRs.. CeeDee Lamb grades out in the 75th percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 0.35 per game.
+100
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.17 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
1.68%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.17 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
1.68%
EV
The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.1 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Dallas Cowboys since the start of last season (a colossal 61.3 per game on average).. The leading projections forecast Dak Prescott to throw 35.9 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 8th-most among all quarterbacks.. With zero red zone rush attempts this year, Dak Prescott's immobility makes him a no threat in the run game near the end zone.. Dak Prescott's throwing precision has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 65.0% to 68.6%.
+550
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.29 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
1.14%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.29 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
1.14%
EV
The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.2 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Dallas Cowboys since the start of last season (a colossal 61.3 per game on average).. While Jake Ferguson has received 9.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the predictive model expects him to be a more integral piece of Dallas's pass game near the goal line this week at 15.6%.. Jake Ferguson has totaled a whopping 29.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. Jake Ferguson has been in the 83rd percentile among tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) with a staggering 33.1 mark since the start of last season.
+255
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.18 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-9.98%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.18 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-9.98%
EV
The Bears rank as the 9th-most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 63.6% red zone pass rate.. The model projects the Bears to call the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. The 8th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Bears since the start of last season (a monstrous 59.0 per game on average).. Cole Kmet has accrued a whopping 22.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 77th percentile among tight ends.. The Bears O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing game metrics across the board.
+425
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
0.27 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-30%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.27 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-30%
EV
The Bears rank as the 9th-most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 63.6% red zone pass rate.. The model projects the Bears to call the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. The 8th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Bears since the start of last season (a monstrous 59.0 per game on average).. Our trusted projections expect D'Andre Swift to be a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack near the goal line in this week's game (24.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (50.0% in games he has played).. The Bears O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing game metrics across the board.
+110
RECEPTIONS MADE
4.5 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.0
DIFFERENCE
14.76%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
4.5 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.0
DIFFERENCE
14.76%
EV
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bears to pass on 55.7% of their plays: the 10th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in the league.
u5.5
-147
RECEPTIONS MADE
2.3 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
13.28%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
2.3 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
13.28%
EV
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bears to pass on 55.7% of their plays: the 10th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in the league.. D'Andre Swift's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 83.0% to 73.5%.. Since the start of last season, the daunting Cowboys defense has yielded a feeble 80.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 8th-best rate in the league.
u2.5
-102
RECEPTIONS MADE
2.5 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.0
DIFFERENCE
6.45%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
2.5 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.0
DIFFERENCE
6.45%
EV
Dallas's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and running stats reduced) on account of playing the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some correction with windier conditions this week.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Chicago Bears, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 29.8 per game) since the start of last season.. The Dallas Cowboys offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
u2.5
+112
RECEPTIONS MADE
6.1 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
6.17%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
6.1 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
6.17%
EV
Dallas's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and running stats reduced) on account of playing the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some correction with windier conditions this week.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Chicago Bears, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 29.8 per game) since the start of last season.. The Dallas Cowboys offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
u6.5
-125
RECEPTIONS MADE
2.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
-1.83%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
2.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
-1.83%
EV
The model projects the Bears to call the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. The 8th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Bears since the start of last season (a monstrous 59.0 per game on average).. Cole Kmet has run a route on 77.9% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 89th percentile among TEs.. The Bears O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing game metrics across the board.. Cole Kmet checks in as one of the top TEs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 3.1 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 77th percentile.
o1.5
-190
RECEPTIONS MADE
4.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-6.76%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
4.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-6.76%
EV
The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.1 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Dallas Cowboys since the start of last season (a colossal 61.3 per game on average).. Our trusted projections expect Jake Ferguson to earn 6.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 96th percentile among tight ends.. Jake Ferguson has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 17.3% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 87th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. With an exceptional 4.5 adjusted receptions per game (92nd percentile) since the start of last season, Jake Ferguson rates among the best pass-catching TEs in the league.
o4.5
-110
RECEPTIONS MADE
4.5 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.0
DIFFERENCE
-12.19%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
4.5 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.0
DIFFERENCE
-12.19%
EV
The model projects the Bears to call the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. The 8th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Bears since the start of last season (a monstrous 59.0 per game on average).. With a remarkable 96.4% Route Participation% (97th percentile) since the start of last season, DJ Moore rates among the WRs with the biggest workloads in football.. This week, DJ Moore is predicted by the model to position himself in the 81st percentile among WRs with 7.2 targets.. With a terrific 5.6 adjusted receptions per game (91st percentile) since the start of last season, DJ Moore has been as one of the top WRs in the league in the league.
o4.5
+102
PASSING TOUCHDOWNS
1.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-10.81%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
1.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-10.81%
EV
The Bears rank as the 9th-most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 63.6% red zone pass rate.. The model projects the Bears to call the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. The 8th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Bears since the start of last season (a monstrous 59.0 per game on average).. The Bears O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing game metrics across the board.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 5th-highest level in the NFL against the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season (73.1% Adjusted Completion%).
o1.5
-113
PASSING TOUCHDOWNS
1.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-12.35%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
1.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-12.35%
EV
The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.1 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Dallas Cowboys since the start of last season (a colossal 61.3 per game on average).. The leading projections forecast Dak Prescott to throw 35.9 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 8th-most among all quarterbacks.. Dak Prescott's throwing precision has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 65.0% to 68.6%.. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Chicago's group of safeties has been dreadful since the start of last season, projecting as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.
o1.5
-142
PASSING COMPLETIONS
20.0 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.5
DIFFERENCE
13.21%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
20.0 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.5
DIFFERENCE
13.21%
EV
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bears to pass on 55.7% of their plays: the 10th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in the league.
u21.5
-118
PASSING COMPLETIONS
22.5 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.0
DIFFERENCE
10.47%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
22.5 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.0
DIFFERENCE
10.47%
EV
Dallas's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and running stats reduced) on account of playing the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some correction with windier conditions this week.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Chicago Bears, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 29.8 per game) since the start of last season.. The Dallas Cowboys offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
u23.5
-113
PASSING ATTEMPTS
31.5 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.0
DIFFERENCE
12.49%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
31.5 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.0
DIFFERENCE
12.49%
EV
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bears to pass on 55.7% of their plays: the 10th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in the league.
u33.5
-125
PASSING ATTEMPTS
34.1 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.4
DIFFERENCE
6.54%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
34.1 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.4
DIFFERENCE
6.54%
EV
Dallas's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and running stats reduced) on account of playing the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some correction with windier conditions this week.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Chicago Bears, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 29.8 per game) since the start of last season.
u35.5
-123
PASSING YARDS
222.6 UNDER
PROJECTION
-13.9
DIFFERENCE
22.89%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
222.6 UNDER
PROJECTION
-13.9
DIFFERENCE
22.89%
EV
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bears to pass on 55.7% of their plays: the 11th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in the league.
u236.5
-113
PASSING YARDS
257.7 UNDER
PROJECTION
-8.8
DIFFERENCE
18.81%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
257.7 UNDER
PROJECTION
-8.8
DIFFERENCE
18.81%
EV
Dallas's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and running stats reduced) on account of playing the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some correction with windier conditions this week.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Chicago Bears, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 29.8 per game) since the start of last season.. The Dallas Cowboys offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
u266.5
-112
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
0.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
16.53%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
0.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
16.53%
EV
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bears to pass on 55.7% of their plays: the 10th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in the league.
u0.5
-110
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
0.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-7.99%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
0.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-7.99%
EV
The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.2 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Dallas Cowboys since the start of last season (a colossal 61.3 per game on average).. The leading projections forecast Dak Prescott to throw 36.0 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 7th-most among all quarterbacks.. Dak Prescott has registered 0.91 interceptions per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 21st percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Chicago's group of safeties has been dreadful since the start of last season, projecting as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.
o0.5
-120
RECEIVING YARDS
23.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.7
DIFFERENCE
21.64%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
23.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.7
DIFFERENCE
21.64%
EV
The model projects the Bears to call the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. The 8th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Bears since the start of last season (a monstrous 59.0 per game on average).. Cole Kmet has run a route on 77.9% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 89th percentile among TEs.. Cole Kmet has accrued a whopping 22.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 77th percentile among tight ends.. The Bears O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing game metrics across the board.
o19.5
-110
RECEIVING YARDS
55.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.5
DIFFERENCE
12.32%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
55.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.5
DIFFERENCE
12.32%
EV
The model projects the Bears to call the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. The 8th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Bears since the start of last season (a monstrous 59.0 per game on average).. With a remarkable 96.4% Route Participation% (97th percentile) since the start of last season, DJ Moore rates among the WRs with the biggest workloads in football.. This week, DJ Moore is predicted by the model to position himself in the 81st percentile among WRs with 7.2 targets.. With an excellent 61.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (85th percentile) since the start of last season, DJ Moore ranks as one of the top wide receivers in the game in football.
o52.5
-102
RECEIVING YARDS
15.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.2
DIFFERENCE
10.18%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
15.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.2
DIFFERENCE
10.18%
EV
The model projects the Bears to call the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. The 8th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Bears since the start of last season (a monstrous 59.0 per game on average).. With a remarkable 51.7% Route Participation% (90th percentile) since the start of last season, D'Andre Swift ranks as one of the pass-catching running backs with the highest volume in the league.. The model projects D'Andre Swift to notch 3.2 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 79th percentile among RBs.. The Bears O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing game metrics across the board.
o14.5
-115
RECEIVING YARDS
15.8 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
9.96%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
15.8 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
9.96%
EV
Dallas's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and running stats reduced) on account of playing the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some correction with windier conditions this week.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Chicago Bears, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 29.8 per game) since the start of last season.. Javonte Williams has totaled a feeble -1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 25th percentile when it comes to RBs.. The Dallas Cowboys offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.. Javonte Williams's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year signifies a material regression in his effectiveness in the open field over last year's 7.3% figure.
u16.5
-110
RECEIVING YARDS
41.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.5
DIFFERENCE
7.41%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
41.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.5
DIFFERENCE
7.41%
EV
The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.1 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Dallas Cowboys since the start of last season (a colossal 61.3 per game on average).. Our trusted projections expect Jake Ferguson to earn 6.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 96th percentile among tight ends.. Jake Ferguson has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 17.3% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 87th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. Jake Ferguson has totaled a whopping 29.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
o39.5
-115
RECEIVING YARDS
82.0 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
3.23%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
82.0 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
3.23%
EV
Dallas's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and running stats reduced) on account of playing the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some correction with windier conditions this week.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Chicago Bears, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 29.8 per game) since the start of last season.. The Dallas Cowboys offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.. CeeDee Lamb's talent in generating extra yardage have tailed off this season, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.67 figure last season.
u83.5
-110
RECEIVING YARDS
62.3 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-3.45%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
62.3 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-3.45%
EV
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bears to pass on 55.7% of their plays: the 11th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in the league.
u66.5
-112
RUSHING YARDS
30.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.6
DIFFERENCE
21.9%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
30.1 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.6
DIFFERENCE
21.9%
EV
With a 40.1% rate of running the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 10th-most run-centric team in the NFL has been the Chicago Bears.. The model projects the Bears to call the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. The 8th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Bears since the start of last season (a monstrous 59.0 per game on average).. The opposing side have rushed for the 4th-most adjusted yards in the league (138 per game) versus the Cowboys defense since the start of last season.. When it comes to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Dallas's LB corps has been very bad since the start of last season, grading out as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.
o25.5
-114
RUSHING YARDS
61.9 UNDER
PROJECTION
-3.7
DIFFERENCE
17.62%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
61.9 UNDER
PROJECTION
-3.7
DIFFERENCE
17.62%
EV
When it comes to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Chicago's collection of LBs has been outstanding since the start of last season, projecting as the 2nd-best in the league.
u65.5
-111
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
5.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.3
DIFFERENCE
14.78%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
5.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.3
DIFFERENCE
14.78%
EV
With a 40.1% rate of running the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 10th-most run-centric team in the NFL has been the Chicago Bears.. The model projects the Bears to call the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. The 8th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Bears since the start of last season (a monstrous 59.0 per game on average).. When it comes to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Dallas's LB corps has been very bad since the start of last season, grading out as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.
o4.5
-128
RUSHING YARDS
52.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.3
DIFFERENCE
12.37%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
52.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.3
DIFFERENCE
12.37%
EV
With a 40.1% rate of running the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 10th-most run-centric team in the NFL has been the Chicago Bears.. The model projects the Bears to call the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. The 8th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Bears since the start of last season (a monstrous 59.0 per game on average).. With a remarkable record of 54.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (81st percentile), D'Andre Swift stands among the top RBs in the league since the start of last season.. The opposing side have rushed for the 4th-most adjusted yards in the league (138 per game) versus the Cowboys defense since the start of last season.
o48.5
-112
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
2.3 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
10.63%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
2.3 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
10.63%
EV
The projections expect Dak Prescott to total 2.5 carries in this contest, on average: the 9th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.. When it comes to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Chicago's collection of LBs has been outstanding since the start of last season, projecting as the 2nd-best in the league.
u2.5
-112
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
13.5 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
0.42%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
13.5 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
0.42%
EV
Our trusted projections expect D'Andre Swift to be a less important option in his team's ground game in this week's game (47.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (62.0% in games he has played).
u13.5
-108
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
15.9 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-5.19%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
15.9 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-5.19%
EV
The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.1 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Dallas Cowboys since the start of last season (a colossal 61.3 per game on average).. Dallas's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and running stats reduced) on account of playing the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some correction with windier conditions this week.. The leading projections forecast Javonte Williams to garner 17.2 carries in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 87th percentile when it comes to RBs.. While Javonte Williams has accounted for 36.8% of his offense's rush attempts in games he has played since the start of last season, the leading projections forecast him to be much more involved in Dallas's run game in this week's contest at 62.3%.
o15.5
-126
RUSHING YARDS
5.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-7.64%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
5.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-7.64%
EV
The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.1 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Dallas Cowboys since the start of last season (a colossal 61.3 per game on average).. Dallas's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and running stats reduced) on account of playing the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some correction with windier conditions this week.. Since the start of last season, the imposing Bears run defense has conceded a paltry 5.11 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing rushing attacks: the 31st-smallest rate in the league.
o5.5
-110