New England’s defense is allowing a league-high 315 passing yards per game and has struggled to contain both the Dolphins and the Raiders. While it’s still early in the season, it’s fair to say that both of those teams are likely inferior to the Seahawks, and potentially even the Jets, that Pittsburgh has already faced.
Drake Maye gets a shot at a bottom-10 defense missing OLB Alex Highsmith and with three other starters listed as questionable. There’s not a ton of value left at +300 for a Maye anytime TD—I'd play it down to +270/+280—but his goal-line usage is hard to ignore. Last week, New England’s RBs had four red-zone carries, but none inside the 5-yard line. Maye had three red-zone runs and scored on a six-yard TD. He finished with 10 total carries, and Pittsburgh already gave up two rushing TDs to Justin Fields in Week 1. If CB Christian Gonzalez is out again, DK Metcalf is also in play at +145—worth a look down to +135.
I’m anticipating marked improvement on defense from The Black and Gold in Week 3. Pittsburgh allowed the eighth-fewest points per game and ninth-lowest EPA per play while ranking third in PFF defense grade last season, after all.
Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots offensive approach to skew 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels now calling the plays.. The projections expect the Patriots to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 60.1% red zone pass rate.. The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.5 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The Steelers have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 58.8 plays per game.. With an exceptional 12.5% Red Zone Target% (92nd percentile) since the start of last season, Jaylen Warren ranks as one of the RB receiving threats with the biggest workloads near the goal line in football.. Jaylen Warren has received a staggering 0.2% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 78th percentile when it comes to running backs.. Jaylen Warren's 100.0% Adjusted Catch% this year conveys a significant improvement in his receiving ability over last year's 89.7% rate.
Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots offensive approach to skew 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels now calling the plays.. The projections expect the Patriots to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 60.1% red zone pass rate.. The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. While Rhamondre Stevenson has received 63.8% of his offense's red zone rushing play calls in games he has played since the start of last season, the projections expect him to be a much smaller part of New England's running game near the goal line this week at 47.1%.. With an extraordinary 15.1% Red Zone Target% (96th percentile) since the start of last season, Rhamondre Stevenson has been among the pass-game running backs with the highest volume near the goal line in the NFL.
Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally cause better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and lower rush volume.. With a top-tier 20.0% Red Zone Target Share (90th percentile) since the start of last season, Pat Freiermuth stands among the TEs with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the league.. As it relates to air yards, Pat Freiermuth ranks in the lofty 82nd percentile among TEs since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 28.0 per game.. Pat Freiermuth's 33.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) grades out among the best in the league: 84th percentile for tight ends.. Pat Freiermuth grades out in the 91st percentile among tight ends when it comes to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 0.37 per game.
To the extent of a defense's influence on pace, at 29.10 seconds per play, the projections expect the Steelers to be the 4th-most sluggish in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now.
To the extent of a defense's influence on pace, at 29.10 seconds per play, the projections expect the Steelers to be the 4th-most sluggish in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now.
To the extent of a defense's influence on pace, at 29.10 seconds per play, the projections expect the Steelers to be the 4th-most sluggish in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now.. The Patriots defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.21 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.
Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally cause better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and lower rush volume.. In this game, Pat Freiermuth is projected by the model to land in the 75th percentile among TEs with 4.4 targets.. With an extraordinary 16.2% Target Rate (85th percentile) since the start of last season, Pat Freiermuth ranks as one of the TEs with the highest volume in the NFL.. As it relates to air yards, Pat Freiermuth ranks in the lofty 82nd percentile among TEs since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 28.0 per game.. With a terrific 39.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (86th percentile) since the start of last season, Pat Freiermuth has been among the leading pass-catching TEs in football.
Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots offensive approach to skew 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels now calling the plays.. The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 62.2% pass rate.. The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. Rhamondre Stevenson has run a route on 48.0% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 85th percentile among RBs.. The Steelers pass defense has displayed weak efficiency versus running backs since the start of last season, allowing 7.29 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-most in the league.
Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots offensive approach to skew 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels now calling the plays.. The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 62.2% pass rate.. The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. The model projects Stefon Diggs to notch 6.6 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 76th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. The Steelers pass defense has displayed poor efficiency versus wide receivers since the start of last season, yielding 8.86 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-most in the NFL.
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