Pittsburgh @ New England Picks & Props

Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots offensive approach to skew 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels now calling the plays. The projections expect the Patriots to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 60.1% red zone pass rate. The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally cause better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and lower rush volume. With a top-tier 20.0% Red Zone Target Share (90th percentile) since the start of last season, Pat Freiermuth stands among the TEs with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the league. As it relates to air yards, Pat Freiermuth ranks in the lofty 82nd percentile among TEs since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 28.0 per game. Pat Freiermuth's 33.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) grades out among the best in the league: 84th percentile for tight ends. Pat Freiermuth grades out in the 91st percentile among tight ends when it comes to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 0.37 per game.

Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots offensive approach to skew 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels now calling the plays. The projections expect the Patriots to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 60.1% red zone pass rate. The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. While Rhamondre Stevenson has received 63.8% of his offense's red zone rushing play calls in games he has played since the start of last season, the projections expect him to be a much smaller part of New England's running game near the goal line this week at 47.1%. With an extraordinary 15.1% Red Zone Target% (96th percentile) since the start of last season, Rhamondre Stevenson has been among the pass-game running backs with the highest volume near the goal line in the NFL.

Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally cause better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and lower rush volume. With an exceptional 12.5% Red Zone Target% (92nd percentile) since the start of last season, Jaylen Warren ranks as one of the RB receiving threats with the biggest workloads near the goal line in football. Jaylen Warren has received a staggering 0.2% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 78th percentile when it comes to running backs. Jaylen Warren's 100.0% Adjusted Catch% this year conveys a significant improvement in his receiving ability over last year's 89.7% rate. The New England Patriots defense has conceded the most receiving touchdowns in the NFL to RBs: 0.37 per game since the start of last season.

Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots offensive approach to skew 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels now calling the plays. The projections expect the Patriots to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 60.1% red zone pass rate. The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. In regards to air yards, Hunter Henry grades out in the lofty 95th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, totaling a remarkable 46.0 per game. Hunter Henry's 43.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 95th percentile for TEs.

Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally cause better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and lower rush volume. With an exceptional 16.4% Red Zone Target% (75th percentile) since the start of last season, DK Metcalf has been as one of the wide receivers with the biggest workloads near the goal line in football. DK Metcalf has accrued a whopping 91.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 92nd percentile when it comes to WRs. DK Metcalf slots into the 84th percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) with a remarkable 60.1 mark since the start of last season. With a terrific ratio of 0.35 per game through the air (75th percentile), DK Metcalf stands among the best receiving TD-scorers in football among wideouts since the start of last season.

Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots offensive approach to skew 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels now calling the plays. The projections expect the Patriots to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 60.1% red zone pass rate. The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. Stefon Diggs has received a whopping 24.4% of his team's air yards since the start of last season: 80th percentile among WRs. Stefon Diggs's 51.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) grades out among the league leaders: 76th percentile for wide receivers.