Chargers @ Chiefs Picks & Props

This week's line implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 5.5 points. The leading projections forecast this game to chug along at the 13th-most sluggish tempo among all games this week, averaging 26.89 seconds per play given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL. Rashee Rice's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 81.1% to 69.9%. This year, the strong Chargers defense has given up a paltry 58.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 3rd-lowest rate in the league.

The Chargers are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script. The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.6 plays per game. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) generally prompt better passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower rush volume. The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (66.9%) versus wideouts this year (66.9%).

This week's line implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 5.5 points. The leading projections forecast this game to chug along at the 13th-most sluggish tempo among all games this week, averaging 26.89 seconds per play given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL. Travis Kelce's 18.3% Target Rate this season represents a material regression in his air attack workload over last season's 24.6% rate. Travis Kelce's receiving skills have worsened this year, accumulating just 4.6 adjusted receptions vs 6.1 last year.

The Chargers are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script. The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.6 plays per game. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) generally prompt better passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower rush volume. This year, the deficient Chiefs pass defense has yielded a monstrous 87.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the biggest rate in football.

This week's line implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 5.5 points. The leading projections forecast this game to chug along at the 13th-most sluggish tempo among all games this week, averaging 26.89 seconds per play given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL. Kareem Hunt's 75.5% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a material drop-off in his receiving prowess over last year's 86.2% mark. The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (77.1%) versus RBs this year (77.1%).

The predictive model expects the Chargers to call the 7th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 31.5 per game) this year. When it comes to pass protection (and the impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Los Angeles Chargers grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year. As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Kansas City's collection of LBs has been fantastic this year, projecting as the 8th-best in the league.

Noah Gray has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Quentin Johnston has gone over 2.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Keenan Allen has gone over 3.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Kimani Vidal has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

JuJu Smith-Schuster has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Tyquan Thornton has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Xavier Worthy has gone over 3.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Isiah Pacheco has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Hollywood Brown has gone over 1.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.