Panthers @ 49ers Picks & Props

Christian McCaffrey totaled 121 yards from scrimmage in Week 11 and now has a combined 1,439 yards rushing and receiving this year. No player in the NFL is as dangerous in both aspects of the game, and his production has improved as the weather has gotten colder, as he’s gone for 170+ total yards twice in the last five weeks. 

San Francisco sits near the bottom of most pass defense measurements, including worst in the NFL for total air yards allowed. Panthers’ receiver Xavier Legette caught four of eight balls for 83 yards last Sunday, with the bulk of those gains coming on a 36-yard over-the-top touchdown strike that sparked Carolina’s comeback in the third quarter. Legette leads the team in air yards per reception (18.0) and has produced six plays of 20-plus yards so far this season. He’s recorded a reception of at least 15 yards in five of his last seven games (5-2 O/U to this prop). He goes against a Niners secondary ranked 26th in DVOA when defending WR2s (55.2 yards per game to WR2s) at FTN. The 49ers will focus their attention on slowing down Carolina WR1 Tetairoa McMillan, leaving the 6-foot-4 Legette to go upstairs for big gains against a San Francisco starting secondary that runs no taller than six feet.

Dowdle became a bigger part of the Panthers’ passing game when Chuba Hubbard got hurt. But even with his backfield mate returning to action, Carolina tries to get the ball in Dowdle’s hands any way it can. He’s drawn three or more targets in five of his last seven games, including a season-high seven passes his way in last week’s win over the Atlanta Falcons. Dowdle caught five of those balls and rumbled for 55 yards receiving. The 49ers have allowed the most targets to rival running backs in the league, which has panned out to the second most receptions and ninth most receiving yards given up to RBs. Last week, San Francisco watched Arizona’s trio of running backs tally 11 receptions for a collective 55 yards receiving. Week 12 forecasts for Dowdle bounce between 16 and 23 receiving yards.

The Niners’ tight end will see plenty of that against a Panthers secondary running the highest rate of zone schemes in the NFL. Kittle is great at find gaps and is Brock Purdy’s favorite option in those spots, rating as the top TE versus zone at PFF. Last week, San Francisco faced a zone-heavy Arizona Cardinals defense and Kittle caught all six balls his way for 67 yards – including a 30-yard TD strike – with his QB1 finally back under center. The week before, Kittle snatched all nine targets for 84 yards against an L.A. Rams defense anchored in zone (4th highest rate). The Panthers allow the fourth most receiving yards to TEs. Things could get worse in Week 12 with starting linebackers – and Carolina’s best coverage LBs – Trevin Wallace and Christian Rozeboom both out for MNF. Most player projections have Kittle pegged for 60-plus yards, with a ceiling closer to 67 yards on Monday night.

Legette saw the second-most targets on the team last week with eight and turned them into four catches for 83 yards and a touchdown. It was his second game with 80 or more yards since Week 7, and his usage continues to trend upward. The matchup is even more favorable this week. San Francisco’s defense is already missing key contributors and may be without two additional starting linebackers. Jacoby Brissett just set the single-game completion record against this unit, and the 49ers have allowed 114 points across their last four games. This could easily be a softer matchup than Atlanta. THE BLITZ projects Legette for 37 yards, ahead of Jalen Coker, who’s competing for WR2 targets.

Bryce Young finally showed some life last week, throwing for more yards than any Carolina quarterback has in franchise history. Now he gets a prime-time matchup against a defense that just allowed 47 completions to Jacoby Brissett, an NFL single-game record. Tetairoa McMillan offers one of the safest receiving floors in the league. He accounts for about 30% of Carolina’s targets and 40% of the air yards. Last week, he put up 130 yards on 12 targets with two touchdowns, and he led all Week-11 players with four red-zone targets. This TD price opened at +200, and the adjustment is the only reason it’s not an A-plus play.

With Brock Purdy back under center and WR Ricky Pearsall in the lineup, San Francisco’s offense almost has every key piece in play. It amassed 41 points on just 281 yards, thanks in part to three takeaways from the 49ers defense. San Francisco welcomes Carolina to the Bay Area for a Monday matchup in Week 12. The Panthers are ripe for a letdown spot after a thrilling comeback win over Atlanta in overtime Sunday. Carolina’s comeback was helped along by injuries to Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. and star WR Drake London. Now the Panthers cross the country for their second straight road game and their third away contest in three weeks. Keep an eye on the practice work of QB Bryce Young, who went down twice with two different injuries in Week 11. I’m grabbing the red-hot Niners under the key number of a touchdown right now.

Christian McCaffrey has notched a massive 22.0 air yards per game this year: 100th percentile among RBs. (This may not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).. Christian McCaffrey's 43.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 33.9.. With a terrific rate of 0.42 per game through the air (100th percentile), Christian McCaffrey stands as one of the top receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL among running backs this year.

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Panthers are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan.. Right now, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (59.5% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Panthers.. The Carolina Panthers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 58.9 plays per game.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the 49ers defense this year: 8th-most in football.. While Rico Dowdle has earned 6.7% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Carolina's passing attack near the goal line in this week's contest at 13.7%.

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Panthers are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan.. The Carolina Panthers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 58.9 plays per game.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the 49ers defense this year: 8th-most in football.. The Carolina offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the most adjusted yards in the league (254.0 per game) vs. the 49ers defense this year.

At the present time, the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in football (57.7% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Carolina Panthers.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Panthers are projected by the projections to call only 63.3 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.

The leading projections forecast Jauan Jennings to earn 7.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Panthers are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan.. The Carolina Panthers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 58.9 plays per game.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the 49ers defense this year: 8th-most in football.. The projections expect Rico Dowdle to accumulate 4.5 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to running backs.. With an exceptional 9.1% Target% (76th percentile) this year, Rico Dowdle places among the pass-game running backs with the most usage in the NFL.

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Panthers are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan.. The Carolina Panthers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 58.9 plays per game.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the 49ers defense this year: 8th-most in football.. The Carolina offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, San Francisco's unit has been awful this year, projecting as the worst in football.

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Panthers are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan.. The Carolina Panthers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 58.9 plays per game.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the 49ers defense this year: 8th-most in football.. The Carolina offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.. This year, the feeble San Francisco 49ers defense has conceded a colossal 159.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing WRs: the worst in the league.

With a 6.5-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their typical approach.. Our trusted projections expect Brock Purdy to be a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack in this contest (12.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (7.0% in games he has played).. As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, Carolina's unit has been atrocious this year, grading out as the worst in football. in football.

The Carolina Panthers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 58.9 plays per game.. The San Francisco 49ers defensive tackles rank as the worst group of DTs in the league this year with their run defense.